Global-E Online (NasdaqGS:GLBE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 19, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker1Welcome to the Global-e Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's website in the Investor section under News and Events. For opening remarks and introduction, I will now turn the call over to Alan Katz, Global-e's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.Speaker0Thank you, and good morning, everyone. With me on the call today are Amir Schlachet, Co-foun ...

Core Insights - Global-e Online Ltd. reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with GMV growth of 33%, revenue growth of 25%, and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 33% [1][5][7] - The company achieved a significant increase in Free Cash Flow, rising 246% year-over-year to $73.6 million [1][5] - The CEO emphasized the company's leadership position and the expansion of value-added services to enhance merchant growth in a complex global e-commerce environment [2] Financial Performance - GMV for Q3 2025 was $1,512 million, a 33% increase year-over-year [5] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $220.8 million, up 25% year-over-year, with service fees contributing $103.5 million and fulfillment services $117.3 million [5] - Non-GAAP Gross Profit for Q3 2025 was $102.1 million, a 24% increase year-over-year, while GAAP Gross Profit was $99.6 million [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $41.3 million, compared to $31.1 million in Q3 2024, marking a 33% increase [5] - Net profit for Q3 2025 was $13.2 million, a turnaround from a net loss of $22.6 million in Q3 2024 [5] Business Highlights - The company launched partnerships with notable brands across various regions, including Everlane and Coach in North America, and Bandai Spirits in Asia-Pacific [5] - Global-e expanded its business scope with existing merchants, including Figs and Burberry, entering new markets [5] - The adoption of new solutions like 3B2C and duty drawback solutions increased among merchants [5] Future Outlook - Global-e raised its guidance for Q4 2025 and the full year, projecting GMV between $2,195 million and $2,315 million for Q4 and total FY 2025 GMV between $6,404 million and $6,524 million [7] - Revenue guidance for Q4 2025 is set between $318.5 million and $334.5 million, with full-year revenue projected between $944.1 million and $960.1 million [7] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 2025 is between $74.3 million and $88.7 million, with full-year guidance between $185.6 million and $200 million [7]

Core Insights - Global-e Online Ltd. reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, achieving growth in key metrics including GMV, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA, all at or above the top end of guidance ranges [1][2][5] Financial Performance - GMV for Q3 2025 was $1,512 million, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase [5] - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $220.8 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, with service fees contributing $103.5 million and fulfillment services $117.3 million [5] - Non-GAAP Gross Profit was $102.1 million, up 24% year-over-year, while GAAP Gross Profit was $99.6 million [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $41.3 million, a 33% increase from $31.1 million in Q3 2024 [5] - The company reported a net profit of $13.2 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $22.6 million in Q3 2024 [5] - Free Cash Flow increased by 246% year-over-year to $73.6 million [1] Business Highlights - The company launched partnerships with notable brands across various regions, including Everlane and Aritzia in North America, Coach and Chloe in the UK and Europe, and Bandai Spirits in Asia-Pacific [5] - Global-e expanded its business scope with existing merchants, including Figs entering South Korea and Latin America, and Burberry expanding into Mexico [5] - The company is in beta-testing for the new Shopify Managed Markets flow, indicating ongoing innovation and development [5] Guidance and Outlook - For Q4 2025, Global-e expects GMV between $2,195 million and $2,315 million, and revenue between $318.5 million and $334.5 million [6] - The full-year guidance for GMV has been raised to a range of $6,404 million to $6,524 million, and revenue to $944.1 million to $960.1 million [6]

Group 1: Rubrik - Rubrik achieved a sales growth of 55% in the last quarter and is currently trading at 79 times free cash flow (FCF) [1] - The company is recognized as the No. 1 player in its niche, holding a "leader" designation from Gartner and has an impressive +80 Net Promoter Score, ranking it among the top 1% of enterprise software companies [1] Group 2: Rocket Lab - Rocket Lab's sales grew by 48% in the last quarter, and its next-generation Neutron rocket is expected to launch in the first quarter of 2026 [4] - The company holds a market cap of approximately $25 billion and is positioned as the No. 2 player in a space industry projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2035 [2] Group 3: Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros reported a 25% sales growth in the last quarter, but its stock has dropped by 33% from its all-time high due to decelerating revenue growth [7] - The company aims to expand to 2,029 total shops by 2029, doubling its current total, and is now funding store construction through its own cash flow [8] Group 4: Halozyme Therapeutics - Halozyme Therapeutics holds a near monopoly on subcutaneous drug deliveries, significantly reducing the time required for drug administration [9] - The company has increased sales by 38% annually over the last decade and is trading at 15 times FCF, indicating strong growth potential [10] Group 5: Global-e Online - Global-e Online facilitates international sales for brands, with its technology being utilized by major e-commerce platforms like Shopify [11] - Despite a 28% sales growth in the last quarter and a 40% drop in share price from its peak, the company remains a dominant player in its niche, trading at 42 times FCF [12] Group 6: Wingstop - Wingstop has experienced a decline in same-store sales for two consecutive quarters, leading to a 37% drop in its stock price [13] - Management believes the company can quadruple its store count, indicating potential for future growth despite recent challenges [15] Group 7: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's stock has fallen by 69%, but it still managed a 26% sales growth over the past year [16] - The company is trading at 25 times forward earnings, with improving adoption rates for its new AI-powered platform, Kokai [17] Group 8: Kinsale Capital - Kinsale Capital specializes in excess and surplus insurance lines, achieving 45% annualized net income growth over the last decade [18] - The company is currently trading at its lowest-ever P/E ratio of 19, making it an attractive investment opportunity [20] Group 9: SPS Commerce - SPS Commerce has delivered 99 consecutive quarters of sales growth but has guided for only 8% growth in 2026, resulting in a 59% drop in stock price [21] - The company trades at 21 times free cash flow, significantly below its five-year average, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [22] Group 10: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre has shown a 39% sales increase in its last quarter and has become a core player in the Latin American economy with 77 million active e-commerce buyers [23] - The company is trading at 52 times forward earnings, which is considered reasonable given its strong growth trajectory [24]

Core Insights - Global-e Online Ltd. (GLBE) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share, reflecting a significant increase of 146.2% year over year [1] - Analysts forecast revenues of $216.21 million for the quarter, indicating a year-over-year growth of 22.9% [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.8% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions to the stock [3] Revenue Forecasts - Analysts estimate 'Revenue by Category - Fulfillment services' to be $114.39 million, representing a 22.5% increase from the previous year [5] - 'Revenue by Category - Service fees' is expected to reach $101.83 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 23.3% [5] - The expected 'Gross Merchandise Value' is projected at $1.47 billion, up from $1.13 billion a year ago [5] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Global-e Online have increased by 6.2%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 1.4% [6] - Currently, GLBE holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance in the near future [6]

Core Insights - Global-e Online Ltd. will report its financial results for Q3 2025 on November 19, 2025, before market open [1] - A conference call will be held to discuss the financial results and outlook [1] Company Overview - Global-e is a leading platform for global direct-to-consumer e-commerce, partnering with over 1,400 brands and retailers across North America, EMEA, and APAC [3] - The company facilitates international sales by providing a seamless, localized shopping experience for online shoppers in over 200 destinations [3] - Global-e's solutions include localization capabilities, business intelligence models, international logistics, and extensive e-commerce experience [3]

Group 1: Amazon - Amazon's market cap stands at $2.46 trillion, indicating ongoing growth potential despite a slowdown in top-line growth [3] - Under CEO Andy Jassy, Amazon has shifted focus towards profitability and margin optimization, leveraging automation technologies to enhance supply chain efficiency [4] - In Q2, Amazon's net sales increased by 13% year over year to $167.7 billion, while operating income surged by 31% to $19.2 billion, driven by significant growth in North American and international e-commerce [5] - The company announced layoffs of 14,000 office workers (4% of its global workforce) as part of its cost-cutting measures, while also planning to utilize robotics to reduce the need for hiring [6] - Although these cost-cutting measures may benefit Amazon's financials, the timing and communication of these layoffs could negatively impact employee morale and brand perception [7] Group 2: Global-e Online - Global-e Online, another e-commerce provider, is focused on enhancing growth and profitability, despite a 33% decline in stock price year to date, presenting a potential investment opportunity [8] - The company specializes in helping websites expand internationally by localizing the shopping experience, which aligns with the broader trend of tech companies incorporating AI and robotics into their business models [9]

Core Insights - Global-e has partnered with Shopify to enable the Shop Pay one-click checkout option for its merchants, enhancing the international shopping experience [1][2] - This partnership aims to provide a seamless and consistent checkout experience for international shoppers, driving conversion and customer loyalty [2] Company Overview - Global-e is a leading platform for global direct-to-consumer e-commerce, serving over 1,400 brands and retailers across North America, EMEA, and APAC [5] - The company facilitates international sales by offering a localized shopping experience in over 200 destinations worldwide [5] Partnership Details - The integration of Shop Pay into Global-e's platform is part of a multi-year strategic partnership with Shopify, signed in May 2025 [2] - This partnership includes exclusive access to certain features on the Shopify platform to simplify international selling and logistics for merchants [2]

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings Inc. is currently viewed as a more attractive investment option compared to Global-e Online Ltd. based on valuation metrics and earnings estimate revisions [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - PDD has a forward P/E ratio of 14.06, significantly lower than GLBE's forward P/E of 115.73 [5]. - PDD's PEG ratio stands at 1.45, while GLBE's PEG ratio is higher at 1.95, indicating PDD's better valuation relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - PDD's P/B ratio is 3.73, compared to GLBE's P/B of 6.83, further highlighting PDD's relative undervaluation [6]. Analyst Outlook - PDD holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a more favorable analyst outlook due to stronger earnings estimate revision activity [3]. - In contrast, GLBE has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a less impressive revision trend compared to PDD [3]. Value Grades - PDD has a Value grade of B, while GLBE has a Value grade of D, reflecting PDD's superior valuation metrics [6].

Core Thesis - Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) is positioned as a leading infrastructure provider for cross-border e-commerce, simplifying complex elements such as pricing, payments, and logistics, which creates a competitive advantage [2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Global-E reported revenue of $752.8 million, representing a 32% year-over-year increase, and a GMV of $4.86 billion, up 37% year-over-year [3] - The company achieved $167.1 million in free cash flow and positive GAAP net income in Q4 2024, with guidance for 2025 projecting revenue between $917 million and $967 million [3] Market Position and Growth Potential - Global-E's business model benefits from high switching costs, leading to sticky growth as it simplifies cross-border commerce, which is experiencing double-digit growth globally [4] - The company has low penetration in its total addressable market, particularly in APAC and LATAM, indicating significant expansion opportunities [4] Strategic Partnerships - The strategic relationship with Shopify, which holds approximately 9.7% voting power, enhances Global-E's market position and supports its growth strategy [2] Valuation and Future Outlook - Despite trading at a premium multiple, sustained growth rates of 25-30% CAGR and margin expansion could lead to a significant rerating of the stock, with potential upside of 2-3x over 3-5 years [5] - Long-term optionality exists for a 5-10x return if Global-E becomes the default standard for cross-border e-commerce [5] Historical Context - Previous bullish coverage highlighted Global-E's scalable infrastructure and strong growth, with the stock appreciating approximately 11.4% since then, reinforcing the positive outlook [6]