The market expects Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if ...

Core Viewpoint - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. will report its second quarter 2025 results on July 23, 2025, after market close [1] Group 1: Earnings Announcement - The company will hold a conference call to discuss the results at 4:30 PM ET on July 23, 2025 [2] - Participants can access the call via a registration link and a live webcast will be available on the investor relations website [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Goosehead is a rapidly growing independent personal lines insurance agency operating through corporate and franchise locations across the United States [3] - The company focuses on providing extraordinary value by offering a broad product choice and a world-class service experience [3] - Goosehead represents over 150 insurance companies that underwrite personal and commercial lines [3]

Core Insights - Goosehead Insurance has appointed Angie Kervin as Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO) to enhance HR capabilities and solidify its industry leadership [1][2] - Kervin brings over two decades of experience in human capital strategies, having held significant roles in various organizations [2][4] - The appointment aligns with Goosehead's commitment to its people strategy and ambitious business goals [3] Company Overview - Goosehead Insurance (NASDAQ: GSHD) is a rapidly growing independent personal lines insurance agency operating through corporate and franchise locations across the United States [5] - The company focuses on providing extraordinary value by centering consumer needs and offering a broad product choice along with a world-class service experience [5] Strategic Focus Areas - Developing innovative HR programs to attract, develop, and retain top talent [7] - Strengthening a high-performance culture emphasizing meritocracy and servant leadership [7] - Leveraging advanced technologies and data-driven decision-making to enhance workforce productivity [7] - Enhancing Goosehead's HR infrastructure to support aggressive, long-term growth in personal lines insurance [7]

Core Insights - Goosehead Insurance has launched the Veteran Initiative Program (VIP) to support military veterans in becoming franchise owners, leveraging their unique skills from military service [1][2] - The program aims to provide veterans with professional development, mentorship, and real-world learning opportunities to succeed in the insurance industry [1][3] Company Overview - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (NASDAQ: GSHD) is a rapidly growing independent personal lines insurance agency that operates through corporate and franchise locations across the United States [5] - The company represents over 200 insurance companies, offering a wide range of personal and commercial insurance products [5] Veteran Initiative Program Details - The VIP is designed to empower veterans, regardless of their prior insurance experience, with comprehensive support and training to operate successful franchises [2][3] - The program includes structured coaching, access to industry-leading technology, a dedicated veteran development team, and geographic flexibility for franchise locations [6] - Goosehead Insurance offers a 20% discount on the initial franchise fee for veterans, demonstrating its commitment to making franchise ownership more accessible [6] Success Stories - The program was inspired by successful veteran franchisees like Tim McMullin, who achieved a $10 million book of business, showcasing the potential for veterans in the franchise model [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Goosehead is projected at $1.87 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year change of -6% [8]. - Over the past three months, analysts have increased their earnings estimates for Goosehead by 15.8% [8]. Impact of Institutional Investors - Changes in earnings estimates are strongly correlated with stock price movements, largely due to institutional investors who adjust their valuations based on these estimates [4]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations for stocks, prompting institutional buying or selling actions that influence stock prices [4]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Goosehead to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Revenue Growth - Total revenue increased by 17% year-over-year to $75.6 million for Q1 2025, up from $64.5 million in Q1 2024[113] - Core Revenue increased by 17% to $69.1 million in Q1 2025, compared to $58.8 million in Q1 2024[113] - Total Written Premiums rose by 22% to $1.0 billion in Q1 2025, up from $0.82 billion in Q1 2024[114] - Renewal Revenue grew 20% to $54.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from $45.0 million for the same period in 2024[155] - New Business Revenue grew 8% to $14.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from $13.8 million for the same period in 2024[152] Profitability - Net income increased by $0.8 million to $2.6 million, representing 4% of total revenues for Q1 2025[113] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 32% to $15.5 million, accounting for 21% of total revenues in Q1 2025[113] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $2.646 million, up from $1.809 million in Q1 2024, representing a 46.2% increase[170] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $15.520 million, compared to $11.727 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 32.5% increase; Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 21% from 18%[170] Expenses - Employee compensation and benefits expenses increased by $6.2 million, or 15%, to $48.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from $42.1 million for the same period in 2024[134] - Revenue from Initial Franchise Fees decreased by $0.9 million, or 40%, to $1.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from $2.2 million for the same period in 2024[132] - Interest income decreased by $0.1 million, or 24%, to $0.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from $0.3 million for the same period in 2024[133] Operational Metrics - Policies in Force increased by 13% to 1,729,000 as of March 31, 2025, compared to the previous year[113] - Corporate sales headcount increased by 46% to 426 as of March 31, 2025, compared to the previous year[113] - Total operating franchises decreased by 5% to 1,098 as of March 31, 2025, from 1,155 in the previous year[113] Cash Flow and Financing - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, totaled $70.2 million, an increase from $57.973 million at the beginning of the period[173] - Net cash provided by operating activities rose to $15.484 million in Q1 2025, up from $12.067 million in Q1 2024, marking a 28.5% increase[175] - The company utilized $3.313 million for investing activities in Q1 2025, compared to $2.882 million in Q1 2024, indicating a 14.9% increase[177] - Financing activities generated $2.427 million in Q1 2025, a significant turnaround from a net cash used of $0.115 million in Q1 2024[178] - The company entered into a new credit agreement on January 8, 2025, for $300 million in term loans and a $75 million revolving credit facility[179] Shareholder Actions - A new share repurchase program was approved on April 23, 2025, allowing for the purchase of up to $100 million of Class A common stock through May 1, 2026[190] Accounting and Risk - No significant changes to critical accounting policies since the Annual Report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024[192] - No material changes to exposure to market risks as described in the Annual Report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024[194]

Core Financial Performance - Goosehead Insurance reported revenue of $75.58 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.3% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.26, a decrease from $0.28 in the same quarter last year [1] - The reported revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $78.25 million, resulting in a surprise of -3.41% [1] - The company achieved an EPS surprise of +13.04%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.23 [1] Key Metrics Analysis - Total Core Revenue was reported at $69.12 million, compared to the average estimate of $72.56 million, marking a year-over-year change of +17.5% [4] - Core Revenue from Renewal Commissions was $16.95 million, below the estimated $18.39 million, but showed a +6.2% change year-over-year [4] - Core Revenue from Renewal Royalty Fees was $37.24 million, slightly above the estimate of $37.10 million, with a year-over-year increase of +28.2% [4] - Total Ancillary Revenue reached $4.93 million, exceeding the average estimate of $3.95 million, representing a significant year-over-year increase of +57.8% [4] Stock Performance - Goosehead's shares have returned -14.9% over the past month, compared to a -6.6% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) reported quarterly earnings of $0.26 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.23 per share, but down from $0.28 per share a year ago, indicating a 7.14% year-over-year decline in earnings [1][2] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The quarterly earnings surprise was 13.04%, and the company had a significant surprise of 92.68% in the previous quarter when it reported earnings of $0.79 against an expectation of $0.41 [1][2] - Over the last four quarters, Goosehead has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times [2] Group 2: Revenue Analysis - Goosehead posted revenues of $75.58 million for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.41%, but up from $64.46 million year-over-year, reflecting a 17.5% increase [2] - The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters [2] Group 3: Stock Performance and Outlook - Goosehead shares have declined approximately 3.7% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has decreased by 10.1% [3] - The company's future stock performance will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the sustainability of earnings expectations [3][4] Group 4: Earnings Estimates and Industry Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.54 on revenues of $95.43 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.87 on revenues of $366.77 million [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Insurance - Multi line is in the top 17% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [8]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $75.6 million, a 17% increase compared to Q1 2024[4] - Core revenue for Q1 2025 was $69.1 million, also up 17% from $58.8 million in the prior-year period[6] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $2.6 million, compared to $1.8 million in the prior-year period, representing a 46% increase[4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $15.5 million, up from $11.7 million in the prior-year period, marking a 32% increase[4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 300 basis points to 21% in Q1 2025[3] - Total revenues for 2025 are projected to be between $350 million and $385 million, indicating growth of 11% to 22%[12] - Total revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $75,583,000, an increase of 17.3% compared to $64,460,000 for the same period in 2024[28] - Core revenue reached $69,120,000, up 17.4% from $58,839,000 year-over-year, driven by increases in renewal commissions and royalty fees[28] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $15,520,000, representing a 32.5% increase from $11,727,000 in Q1 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21% compared to 18%[30][31] - Net income for the first quarter of 2025 was $2,646,000, a 46.2% increase from $1,809,000 in Q1 2024, resulting in a net income margin of 4%[30][31] Premiums and Policies - Total written premiums increased by 22% to $1.0 billion in Q1 2025[4] - For full year 2025, total written premiums are expected to be between $4.65 billion and $4.88 billion, representing growth of 22% to 28%[12] - Policies in force increased by 13% to approximately 1,729,000 compared to the prior-year period[4] - Policies in force reached 1,729,000 in Q1 2025, up from 1,528,000 in Q1 2024, marking a 13.1% increase[34] - QTD written premium for Q1 2025 was $1,000,231,000, compared to $818,785,000 in Q1 2024, showing a growth of 22.1%[34] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets as of March 31, 2025, were $115,403,000, compared to $108,564,000 at the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of 6.9%[22] - Total liabilities increased significantly to $558,071,000 as of March 31, 2025, compared to $358,577,000 at the end of 2024, indicating a rise of 55.6%[22] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $70,208,000, up from $54,280,000, marking a growth of 29.3%[22] - The company’s accumulated deficit grew to $(158,845,000) as of March 31, 2025, compared to $(15,401,000) at the end of 2024[22] Shareholder Actions - The company announced a new $100 million share repurchase authorization through May 1, 2026[11] Employee and Franchise Metrics - Employee compensation and benefits, excluding equity-based compensation, increased to $42,098,000, up 21% from $34,773,000 in the prior year[28] - Total franchise producers increased to 2,097 in Q1 2025 from 1,963 in Q1 2024, representing a growth of 6.8%[34] - Corporate agent productivity for agents with less than 1 year tenure increased to $14,960 in Q1 2025 from $12,787 in Q1 2024, a rise of 17.1%[34] - Operating franchises with more than 1 year tenure slightly decreased to 998 in Q1 2025 from 1,022 in Q1 2024, a decline of 2.4%[34] Customer Metrics - Client retention remained stable at 84% for both Q1 2025 and Q1 2024[34] - Premium retention was 98% for both Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, indicating consistent performance[34] - Net Promoter Score (NPS) decreased to 87 in Q1 2025 from 91 in Q1 2024, reflecting a decline of 4.4%[34] Earnings Per Share - Basic earnings per share (GAAP) for Q1 2025 was $0.09, compared to $0.07 in Q1 2024, reflecting a 28.6% increase[32] - Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) for Q1 2025 was $0.26, down from $0.28 in Q1 2024, indicating a decrease of 7.1%[32] Other Financial Metrics - The company reported a decrease in initial franchise fees, which fell to $1,342,000 from $2,245,000 year-over-year[28]

Core Insights - Goosehead Insurance reported a strong first quarter for 2025, with premium growth of 22% and total revenue increasing by 17% to $75.6 million compared to the same period in 2024 [3][4][5] - The company achieved a net income of $2.6 million, a 46% increase from $1.8 million in the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $15.5 million, up 32% from $11.7 million [5][7][21] - Goosehead continues to expand its market presence, currently placing approximately $4 billion in annual premium, representing less than 1% of the over $500 billion U.S. personal lines market [3][4] Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $75.6 million, a 17% increase from $64.5 million in Q1 2024, while core revenues also grew by 17% to $69.1 million [4][5][20] - The net income margin for the quarter was 4%, with earnings per share (EPS) increasing to $0.09 from $0.07 in the prior year [5][7][21] - Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 300 basis points to 21% compared to the previous year [3][5][7] Operational Highlights - Total written premiums increased by 22% to $1.0 billion, with policies in force rising by 13% to approximately 1,729,000 [5][36] - The company invested significantly in its production force, service functions, technology initiatives, and AI-driven tools to enhance the personal lines experience [3][4] - The corporate agent headcount grew by 46% to 426 compared to the prior year, and total franchise producers increased by 7% to 2,097 [5][36] Share Repurchase Program - Goosehead announced a new share repurchase authorization of up to $100 million for Class A common stock, effective through May 1, 2026 [10][5] 2025 Outlook - The company reiterated its guidance for full-year 2025, expecting total written premiums to be between $4.65 billion and $4.88 billion, representing growth of 22% to 28% [14]