Core Insights - Goosehead Insurance has appointed Bill Wade to its Board of Directors, bringing over 25 years of experience in leveraging emerging technologies, particularly AI, for innovation and growth [1][2][3] Company Overview - Goosehead Insurance is a rapidly growing independent personal lines insurance agency, founded in 2003, that focuses on technology and human capital to provide extraordinary value and service [5] - The company represents over 200 insurance companies that underwrite personal and commercial lines [5] Leadership and Strategy - Bill Wade's expertise in AI and digital transformation is expected to enhance Goosehead's technology-driven expansion and client experience [2][3][4] - The company aims to secure its position as the top distributor of personal lines insurance in the U.S. through aggressive investment in technology [3] Innovation and Technology - Wade's appointment is seen as pivotal for transforming the insurance industry through bold innovation and advanced technology solutions [3][4] - Goosehead's commitment to AI and tech solutions is viewed as a unique opportunity to redefine scalability and client value in the insurance sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. will report its first quarter 2025 results on April 23, 2025, after market close [1] Group 1: Earnings Announcement - The company will hold a conference call to discuss the results at 4:30 PM ET on April 23, 2025 [2] - Participants can access the call via a registration link and a live webcast will be available on Goosehead's investor relations website [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Goosehead is a rapidly growing independent personal lines insurance agency operating through corporate and franchise locations across the United States [3] - The company focuses on providing extraordinary value by offering a broad product choice and a world-class service experience [3] - Goosehead represents over 150 insurance companies that underwrite personal and commercial lines [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, supported by a strong history of exceeding expectations [1][2]. Earnings Performance - Goosehead has a solid track record of surpassing earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 50.69% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the most recent quarter, the company reported earnings of $0.79 per share, exceeding the expected $0.41 per share, resulting in a surprise of 92.68% [2]. - For the previous quarter, Goosehead's actual earnings were $0.50 per share against an estimate of $0.46 per share, leading to a surprise of 8.70% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable adjustment in earnings estimates for Goosehead, indicated by a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) [5]. - The current Earnings ESP for Goosehead is +4.35%, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [8]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6]. Importance of Earnings ESP - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a solid Zacks Rank indicates a higher likelihood of an earnings beat [8]. - It is crucial for investors to check a company's Earnings ESP before quarterly releases to enhance the chances of successful investment decisions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between Axa Sa (AXAHY) and Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) indicates that AXAHY currently offers better value for investors based on various financial metrics and analyst outlooks [1][3][7]. Valuation Metrics - Axa Sa has a forward P/E ratio of 9.64, significantly lower than Goosehead Insurance's forward P/E of 64.24 [5]. - The PEG ratio for Axa Sa is 1.62, while Goosehead Insurance has a PEG ratio of 4.58, suggesting that AXAHY is more reasonably priced relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - Axa Sa's P/B ratio stands at 1.85, in stark contrast to Goosehead Insurance's P/B ratio of 115.34, indicating a more favorable valuation for AXAHY [6]. Analyst Outlook - Axa Sa holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), reflecting a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while Goosehead Insurance has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a less favorable outlook [3][7]. - The improving earnings outlook for Axa Sa positions it as a superior value option compared to Goosehead Insurance [7]. Value Grades - Based on the discussed metrics, Axa Sa has a Value grade of B, whereas Goosehead Insurance has a Value grade of F, further supporting the argument for AXAHY as the better investment choice [6].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are evaluating Axa Sa (AXAHY) and Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) to determine which stock represents a better undervalued investment opportunity [1] Valuation Metrics - Axa Sa has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while Goosehead Insurance has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - Axa Sa's forward P/E ratio is 9.57, significantly lower than Goosehead Insurance's forward P/E of 60.84 [5] - Axa Sa has a PEG ratio of 1.61, compared to Goosehead Insurance's PEG ratio of 4.34, suggesting Axa Sa is more reasonably priced relative to its expected earnings growth [5] - Axa Sa's P/B ratio is 1.84, while Goosehead Insurance's P/B ratio is exceptionally high at 108.72, indicating a substantial difference in valuation [6] - Axa Sa has a Value grade of B, whereas Goosehead Insurance has a Value grade of F, reflecting Axa Sa's more attractive valuation metrics [6] Conclusion - Axa Sa shows stronger estimate revision activity and more favorable valuation metrics than Goosehead Insurance, making it the preferred choice for value investors at this time [7]

Financial Performance - Total Written Premium grew 29% to $3.8 billion in 2024, up from $3.0 billion in 2023[31] - Total revenue growth was 20% and Total Written Premium growth was 29% in 2024, with a 10-year Total Written Premium CAGR of 42%[57] - Franchise sales generated a 33% increase in premiums during 2024, with a total of 1,103 franchises operating as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a 10% decrease compared to 2023[50] - The company earns 20% of New Business Royalty Fees and 50% of Renewal Royalty Fees from franchise sales, contributing to its core revenue[48] Client Retention and Satisfaction - Client retention rate reached 84% in 2024, which is among the best in the industry[23] - The company achieved a Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 89 in 2024, a decrease from 92 in 2023, while maintaining an 84% Client Retention rate[56] - Goosehead's service centers achieved a 2024 NPS score of 89, leading to an 84% Client Retention rate and a 98% premium retention rate[68] Sales and Production - Average commission rate on new business premium was 14% and on renewal business premium was 12% in 2024[29] - New Business Production per Agent in corporate sales was $66 thousand for agents with less than 1 year of tenure and $115 thousand for those with more than one year[40] - Corporate sales agents with more than three years of tenure averaged 2.8x as much New Business Production per Agent compared to industry best practices[42] - The company’s corporate sales agents generate approximately 2.8 times as much new business as top-performing personal lines agents after three years[62] - Franchise sales agents with over three years of tenure averaged 1.9 times the New Business Production per Agent compared to the industry best practice[47] Technology and Innovation - Goosehead's proprietary technology allows clients to receive quotes in less than two minutes using just three data points[35] - Goosehead's Digital Agent combines millions of data points to deliver tailored insurance quotes to clients[22] - The company has a competitive advantage through its proprietary cloud-based technology platform, which enhances sales and service efficiency[64] - Goosehead aims to leverage technology to enhance operational efficiencies and maintain a competitive edge in the market[68] Franchise Model and Growth - Goosehead has 1,103 operating franchise locations, reflecting significant growth in the franchise model[28] - As of December 31, 2024, Goosehead has operating franchises in 44 states, covering over 98% of the total U.S. population[66] - Total operating franchises decreased by 10% to 1,103 in 2024 from 1,226 in 2023, showing an improvement in franchise turnover compared to the previous year[75] - Franchise owners benefit from reduced startup costs and do not require additional employees or retail locations to launch their agencies[52] Employee Engagement and Culture - More than half of Goosehead's employees are women, and over one-third identify as racially diverse, reflecting the company's commitment to diversity[96] - Goosehead offers a competitive health benefits package, including a 401(k) retirement savings plan with matching contributions that vest over four years[95] - The company has adopted a code of business conduct and ethics that applies to all employees, promoting honest and ethical conduct[100] - Goosehead maintains strong Equal Opportunity and Anti-Harassment policies, ensuring a respectful workplace[97] - The company emphasizes a meritocratic culture, aligning employee incentives with shareholder interests through an Omnibus Incentive Plan[94] - Goosehead provides ongoing professional development through a structured training curriculum for all incoming recruits[92] - The company engages employees and franchise partners through in-person town halls, facilitating real-time updates to its operating platform[93] - Goosehead's operating principles focus on integrity, exceptional service, and creating value, fostering a motivated workforce[99] - Goosehead conducts weekly virtual webinars for ongoing training and mentoring of corporate and franchise agents[92] Operational Efficiency - Service expenses as a percentage of gross commissions were 3.2 times lower than the industry best practice in 2024[64] - The company’s service centers support both new and renewal business, allowing agents to focus on acquiring new clients[64] - Goosehead's compensation for service team employees averaged over $51,000 in 2024, contributing to employee retention[68] Market Opportunity - The U.S. personal lines P&C industry is valued at approximately $453 billion, indicating a significant market opportunity for Goosehead[69] - The company plans to continue expanding its recruiting efforts on college campuses and through targeted internet campaigns to grow its agent count[66] Compliance and Reporting - The company encourages independent reporting of policy violations through a third-party solutions team[98]

Goosehead Insurance, Inc (NASDAQ:GSHD) Q4 2024 Results Conference Call February 24, 2025 4:30 PM ET Company Participants Daniel Farrell - VP of Capital Markets Mark Miller - President and CEO Mark Jones - CFO Conference Call Participants Tommy McJoynt - KBW Matt Carletti - JMP Securities Brian Meredith - UBS Paul Newsome - Piper Sandler Andrew Kligerman - TD Cowen Katie Sakys - Autonomous Research Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets Mark Hughes - Truist Securities Pablo Singzon - JPMorgan Scott Heleniak ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. reported a total revenue growth of 20% for 2024, with core revenue growth of 17% and premium growth of 29% [19][50] - EBITDA reached nearly $100 million, reflecting a 43% year-over-year increase and a record margin of 32% [19][34] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 grew 164% to $37.4 million, up from $14.1 million in the previous year [55] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Franchise premiums increased by 33% to $778 million, while corporate premiums grew by 9% to $187 million [49][50] - Policies in force as of year-end were 1.7 million, marking a 13% increase [54] - Franchise productivity grew 47% year-over-year in Q4 and 49% for the full year [40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The personal lines insurance market is showing signs of improvement, with auto direct loss ratios decreasing from 74.8% to 64.5% year-over-year, and homeowners' direct loss ratios improving from 81% to 66.8% [17][18] - Contingent commissions for Q4 were $24 million, bringing the full year to $31.4 million, significantly higher than anticipated [51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Goosehead Insurance aims to expand its franchise distribution and enhance technology capabilities, including the launch of a mobile app and improvements in quote-to-issue technology [29][30][34] - The company is focusing on embedding franchises within existing businesses, such as mortgage servicers, to diversify lead flow and mitigate fluctuations in housing transaction volumes [46][110] - The goal is to achieve a "rule of sixty" performance, combining revenue growth and profit margin exceeding 60% [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of insurance in the wake of significant natural catastrophes and emphasized the need for adequate coverage [10][11] - The company remains optimistic about continued growth in 2025, driven by improved market conditions and strategic initiatives [19][60] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to capture additional market share and improve client retention rates [57][106] Other Important Information - Goosehead Insurance ended the year with $54.3 million in cash and total debt of $93.1 million [58] - The company completed a new term loan B offering of $300 million and a revolving credit facility of $75 million [59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on contingent commissions - Management noted that the core performance of the book was better than anticipated, leading to larger contingencies from carriers [66] Question: Direction of EBITDA margin in 2025 - Management expects core revenue to grow faster than expenses, leading to margin expansion over time [69] Question: Product availability across geographies - Management indicated that product availability varies by state, with Texas seeing improvements in the E&S side [75] Question: Guidance on commission rates and client retention - Management anticipates an increase in average commission rates as the admitted market heals and expects gradual improvement in client retention [86] Question: Expectations for hiring and margin accretion - On the franchise side, new hires are margin accretive almost immediately, while corporate agents take about six to eight months to become margin accretive [121] Question: Long-term organic growth guidance - Management expects accelerating core revenue growth in 2025 compared to 2024, despite some conservative estimates due to contingent commissions [95]

Core Insights - Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) reported revenue of $93.92 million for Q4 2024, marking a year-over-year increase of 49.1% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $77.82 million by 20.70% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $0.79, significantly higher than the $0.28 reported a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of 92.68% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.41 [1] Key Financial Metrics - Total Core Revenue was $67.97 million, below the four-analyst average estimate of $71.76 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 19.5% [4] - Total Cost Recovery Revenue was $1.54 million, which is a decrease of 44.4% year-over-year and below the average estimate of $2.19 million [4] - Total Ancillary Revenue reached $24.41 million, significantly surpassing the four-analyst average estimate of $6.61 million, with a year-over-year increase of 630.8% [4] - Core Revenue from New Business Royalty Fees was $6.73 million, slightly above the average estimate of $6.52 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 25.7% [4] - Core Revenue from Agency Fees was $2.09 million, which is below the estimated $2.22 million but shows a year-over-year increase of 36.5% [4] - Ancillary Revenue from Contingent Commissions was $24.02 million, far exceeding the average estimate of $5.51 million, with a year-over-year increase of 688.8% [4] - Core Revenue from Renewal Commissions was $18.17 million, below the average estimate of $19.65 million, but still reflects a year-over-year increase of 4.8% [4] - Core Revenue from New Business Commissions was $6 million, below the average estimate of $6.85 million, with a year-over-year increase of 8.8% [4] - Core Revenue from Renewal Royalty Fees was $34.99 million, slightly above the average estimate of $33.79 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 28.7% [4] - Cost Recovery Revenue from Initial Franchise Fees was $1.33 million, below the average estimate of $2.06 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 45.8% [4] - Cost Recovery Revenue from Interest Income was $0.21 million, slightly above the average estimate of $0.20 million, but shows a year-over-year decrease of 32.8% [4] Stock Performance - Goosehead's shares have returned +5.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Goosehead Insurance topped fourth-quarter expectations with strong double-digit percentage growth in revenues and profits.Goosehead Insurance (GSHD -0.97%) announced its results for the fourth quarter after the close of trading on Feb. 24. The personal lines insurance agency reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.79, well in excess of the estimated $0.40. Revenue growth for the quarter was likewise strong, reaching $93.9 million compared to the expected $78 million. MetricQ4 2024Q4 2024 Analysts' ...