Core Viewpoint - Home Depot's stock increased by 2.8% despite weak fiscal 2024 results and conservative fiscal 2025 guidance, indicating potential resilience in the face of industry challenges [1] Dividend Growth - Home Depot has historically experienced rapid dividend and earnings growth over the past 15 years, but recent years have shown a slowdown in earnings growth [2][3] - The latest dividend increase of 2.2% is the smallest since 2010, reflecting the company's ongoing downturn [3] - The payout ratio has risen to 60%, higher than the average over the last 15 years, but still considered healthy for an industry leader [4] Earnings Expectations - Home Depot is projecting only 2.8% total sales growth and a 1% increase in comparable sales for fiscal 2025, with diluted EPS expected to decline by 3% [7] - Fiscal 2024 diluted EPS was $14.91, and the expected EPS for fiscal 2025 is $14.94, indicating a stagnation in earnings compared to previous years [8] Market Context - The company's weak performance is attributed to broader industry challenges, including high interest rates and reduced consumer spending, rather than management execution [9][10] - Despite the lack of growth, Home Depot's earnings have not significantly declined, suggesting stability during the cyclical slowdown [11] Long-term Strategy - Home Depot continues to invest in long-term growth opportunities, such as the acquisition of SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion and the opening of 13 new stores in fiscal 2025 [14] - The company is positioned to benefit from a potential recovery in the home improvement industry, making it a viable option for long-term investors [15]

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot has demonstrated resilience and growth despite challenges in the housing market, reporting positive comparable sales growth and strong revenue figures, indicating a potential recovery phase for the company [3][4][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Home Depot's overall revenue increased by 14.1% to $39.7 billion, surpassing estimates of $39.07 billion, aided by an extra week in the quarter and the acquisition of SRS Distribution [4]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose from $2.86 to $3.13, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.04; without the extra week, EPS would have been $2.83 [5]. - Comparable sales growth returned, with overall comps rising 0.8% and U.S. comps up 1.3%, marking a significant inflection point for the company [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Home Depot anticipates comparable sales growth of 1% and total sales growth of 2.8% for the upcoming period, reflecting some benefits from the SRS Distribution acquisition [7]. - The company expects adjusted earnings per share to decline by 2% to $15.24, influenced by investments in the business and the lower-margin nature of SRS Distribution [7]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to expected improvements in the housing market and potential decreases in interest rates, which could stimulate home improvement spending [11][12]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion has expanded Home Depot's market reach and strengthened its position with professional customers, providing cross-sell opportunities [8]. - SRS Distribution is projected to outperform Home Depot's core business with mid-single-digit organic sales growth, continuing to operate under the same management team and pursuing its own acquisitions [9]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite a conservative earnings growth forecast and a modest 2.2% dividend increase, Home Depot remains a strong long-term investment due to its profitability and market leadership [10][12]. - The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27, which, while not cheap, is considered reasonable for a leading company in its category [12].

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot has reported a positive same-store sales growth for the first time since Q3 2022, indicating a potential turnaround in performance after a prolonged period of decline [1][4]. Sales Performance - Home Depot achieved a 0.8% increase in same-store sales for fiscal Q4, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 1.7% decline [4][5]. - U.S. same-store sales rose by 1.3%, with a 0.6% increase in the number of transactions and a 0.2% rise in average ticket size, primarily driven by higher prices of lumber and copper wire [4][5]. - Ten out of Home Depot's 16 product categories reported positive comparable sales growth, with strength noted in appliances, building materials, and lumber [6]. Financial Results - Overall revenue increased by 14% to $39.7 billion, aided by an extra week in the quarter and the acquisition of SRS Distribution [7]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 7% to $3.02, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $3.01 [7]. Future Outlook - Home Depot forecasts a revenue growth of 2.8% and a 1% increase in same-store sales for the upcoming period, with adjusted EPS expected to decline by about 2% [8]. - The company plans to open 13 new stores in 2025 [8]. Market Conditions - The housing environment is expected to remain challenging, with no significant rebound in new housing starts or existing home turnover anticipated [10]. - High interest rates are likely to continue impacting large home remodeling projects, which are often financed [10][11]. Valuation - Home Depot's stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 26 and a forward P/E of 25.8 based on 2025 estimates, indicating a high valuation relative to historical metrics [12].

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot is experiencing a multiyear slowdown, with no immediate recovery expected in the housing market or home improvement projects, yet it remains a valuable dividend stock for investors [1][12]. Company Performance - Home Depot has a market cap exceeding $390 billion, making it one of the most valuable retail companies globally, catering to consumers, professionals, and contractors [2]. - The company has faced a slowdown due to various factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, inflation, and rising interest rates [3]. - Home Depot broke a two-year streak of declining same-store sales, indicating a potential stabilization, but provided a bleak outlook for fiscal 2025 earnings [4]. Financial Outlook - For fiscal 2025, Home Depot anticipates comparable sales growth of only 1% and total sales growth of 2.8%, with diluted EPS expected to decline by 3% [5]. - Operating margins are projected to be 13%, marking the lowest operating margin in over eight years, with revenue and earnings having been flat or slightly declining for more than two years [6]. Consumer Insights - Home Depot's management indicated that consumer spending remains resilient despite economic pressures, with expectations of continued momentum into fiscal 2025 [7]. - The CEO noted that while housing turnover is at a 40-year low, consumers are financially healthy, with an average income of $110,000 and increased home equity values [8][11]. - The wealth effect from rising home equity and stock market performance has made some consumers wealthier, although those not benefiting from these trends face increased financial strain [11]. Investment Perspective - Despite weak guidance, Home Depot's honest management commentary may appeal to long-term investors, as the company is well-positioned to endure the current slowdown [12][13]. - Home Depot boasts 16 consecutive years of dividend increases and a 2.3% dividend yield, making it a solid long-term buy even if growth does not return for at least another year [13].

Core Viewpoint - Both Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) have shown positive year-over-year comparable sales growth for the first time in eight periods, indicating a potential recovery in the home improvement market [3][4][17]. Group 1: Quarterly Results - Home Depot's comparable store sales increased by 0.8% year-over-year, with U.S. comparable sales rising by 1.3% [4]. - Lowe's comparable store sales rose by 0.2% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of a -1.4% decline [5][4]. - Both companies have reported their second consecutive positive readings on comparable sales, suggesting improving performance in existing locations [8][4]. Group 2: Valuation - Lowe's shares are trading at a lower forward 12-month earnings multiple compared to Home Depot, with a significantly lower PEG ratio [10]. - Lowe's is projected to achieve a 4.3% year-over-year EPS growth this fiscal year, while Home Depot is expected to see only 1.6% growth [10]. - Given the current PEG ratios, Lowe's valuation appears more attractive [10]. Group 3: Estimate Revisions - Analysts have revised EPS expectations more negatively for Home Depot compared to Lowe's following the latest earnings releases [12][16]. - The stability in Lowe's earnings picture is viewed positively, while the downward revisions for Home Depot raise concerns [16]. - Top line revisions for both companies' upcoming earnings reports have been marginally positive [16]. Group 4: Overall Outlook - Despite near-term uncertainties in the home improvement market, the positive change in comparable sales for both companies suggests potential momentum [17]. - Lowe's shares are currently considered the better investment based on valuation, forecasted EPS growth, and a more favorable earnings outlook following recent results [18].

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot remains a strong dividend stock despite facing challenges in the current macroeconomic environment, with a long-term investment thesis intact [2][5][10]. Company Performance - Home Depot's market capitalization has increased from approximately $50 billion 15 years ago to over $380 billion today, indicating strong stock performance [2]. - In fiscal 2023, comparable sales fell by 3.5% and diluted EPS decreased by 9.5%, reflecting a multiyear downturn [4]. - The company's stock has increased by around 11% over the last three years and 57% over the last five years, although it is underperforming compared to the S&P 500 [5]. Macroeconomic Challenges - High interest rates are making home improvement financing more expensive, while elevated mortgage rates are discouraging home purchases [7]. - Existing home sales in the U.S. are near a 10-year low, down approximately 20% from pre-pandemic levels, indicating a strained housing market [8]. - The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is at a 10-year high, contributing to affordability issues for potential homebuyers [7][8]. Dividend Growth - Home Depot has consistently raised its quarterly dividend from $0.25 per share in 2011 to $2.25 per share in 2024, showcasing a commitment to dividend growth [11]. - The company has a dividend yield of 2.3%, making it an attractive option for passive income investors [12]. Valuation and Future Outlook - Home Depot's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 26.2, with a forward P/E of 24.5, indicating a reasonable valuation despite appearing slightly overvalued [14]. - The acquisition of SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion is expected to enhance Home Depot's exposure to the contractor market, although the full benefits may take time to materialize due to industry slowdowns [15][16]. - Fiscal 2025 may see a slight uptick in sales and earnings post-integration of SRS, even if interest rates remain high [17].

Group 1: Home Depot Q4 Results - Home Depot's Q4 sales reached $39.7 billion, a 14% increase year over year from $34.78 billion, exceeding estimates of $39.14 billion [2] - The Q4 EPS was $3.13, beating expectations of $3.04 by 2.96% and rising 11% from $2.82 per share a year ago [3] - Home Depot has exceeded the Zacks EPS Consensus for 19 consecutive quarters since August 2020 [3] Group 2: Lowe's Q4 Expectations - Lowe's Q4 sales are estimated to have dipped 1% to $18.35 billion compared to $18.6 billion in the prior year quarter, while earnings are expected to rise 3% to $1.83 per share from $1.77 [5] - Lowe's has exceeded bottom line expectations for 22 consecutive quarters since August 2019 [5] - The Zacks ESP indicates Lowe's could surpass earnings expectations with a Q4 EPS estimate of $1.85, 1% above the Zacks Consensus [6] Group 3: Stock Performance & Valuation - Home Depot and Lowe's trade at forward earnings multiples of 24.4X and 18.9X, respectively [8] - Lowe's trades below the S&P 500's average of 22.5X forward earnings and at a discount to the Zacks Retail-Home Furnishings Industry average of 22.1X [9] - Home Depot's stock has gained +24% over the last three years, while Lowe's has gained +9%, both underperforming the S&P 500 [10] Group 4: Dividend Comparison - Home Depot offers a 2.35% annual dividend yield, while Lowe's yield is at 1.94%, both exceeding the S&P 500's average of 1.21% [12] - Home Depot's yield is above the industry average of 2.13% [12] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Both Home Depot and Lowe's stock hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting potential rewards for long-term investors [15] - There may be better buying opportunities ahead amid recent market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty [15]

Core Insights - Consumers are delaying large renovation projects due to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, impacting the U.S. housing market [1][5] - Home Depot's CEO noted ongoing pressure on large remodeling projects attributed to uncertain macroeconomic conditions and high interest rates [1][5] - The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage remains just under 7%, contributing to a "golden handcuff" effect in the housing market, limiting supply [4][5] Company Performance - Home Depot's sales for professional customers outpaced do-it-yourself customers in the fourth quarter [3] - The company is not anticipating changes in the interest rate environment or improvements in housing turnover, expecting continued pressure on larger remodeling projects [5] Market Conditions - Pending home sales unexpectedly fell by 5.5% in December, pulling back from a 21-month high, indicating a slowdown in the housing market [5][7] - The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for single-family housing dropped to its lowest level in five months due to tariff uncertainties [6]

Core Insights - Housing turnover is limited due to elevated mortgage rates and potential tariffs impacting the housing market, but Home Depot is expected to see increased business as homeowners resume renovations [1][5] - Americans are anticipated to move forward with delayed relocation and renovation plans, accepting current mortgage and inflation rates, leading to a surge in construction projects that will benefit home improvement businesses like Home Depot [2] - Homeowners are unable to indefinitely postpone investments in their homes, and a thaw in the major renovation freeze is suggested by recent data from Home Depot [3] Company Performance - Home Depot's transactions valued at $1,000 or more increased by 0.9% year-over-year in the final quarter of 2024, contrasting with a 6.8% decline in the third quarter [3] - Slightly more Americans are utilizing home equity to finance projects, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior towards larger remodeling projects [4] - Home Depot shares rose nearly 3% following the company's latest earnings report, reflecting positive market sentiment [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for fiscal year 2024 were $159.5 billion, an increase of 4.5% from the previous year [6][33] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $3.13, compared to $2.86 in the prior year, reflecting a 9.4% increase [7][37] - Gross margin for the fourth quarter was approximately 32.8%, a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous year [33] - Operating margin for the fourth quarter was 11.3%, down from 11.9% in the same quarter last year [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fourth quarter, 10 of the 16 merchandising departments posted positive comps, including appliances and building materials [23] - Comp sales in the fourth quarter increased by 0.8%, with U.S. stores seeing a 1.3% increase [7][31] - Online sales, excluding the impact of an extra week in the quarter, increased approximately 9% compared to the fourth quarter of last year [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 15 of the 19 U.S. regions delivered positive comps in the fourth quarter, with Canada and Mexico also reporting positive comps in local currency [8] - The company experienced a net contribution of approximately $220 million in hurricane-related sales, positively impacting total company comps by approximately 65 basis points for the quarter [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on creating the best interconnected shopping experience and growing its Pro wallet share through strategic investments [9][10] - The acquisition of SRS contributed $6.4 billion in sales for the seven months of ownership, with expectations for mid-single-digit organic growth in fiscal 2025 [11][41] - Plans to open 13 new stores in fiscal 2025, building on the 12 new stores opened in fiscal 2024 [13][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying momentum of the business, despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [40] - The company expects total sales growth of approximately 2.8% and comp sales growth of approximately 1% for fiscal 2025 [41][43] - Management noted that while there are signs of normalization in the home improvement market, continued pressure on larger remodeling projects is anticipated [40] Other Important Information - The company announced a 2.2% increase in its quarterly dividend to $2.30 per share, equating to an annual dividend of $9.20 per share [39] - Return on invested capital was approximately 31.3%, down from 36.7% in the previous year [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the macro housing backdrop and its impact on comp sales? - Management indicated that while there was slight improvement in housing turnover, they do not expect a significant rebound in new housing starts or mortgage rates [47][48] Question: Were the increases in appliances and paint volume-driven? - Management noted that the positive performance was a combination of healthy transactions and unit performance across various categories [60][62] Question: What market share assumptions are embedded in the 2025 outlook? - Management expects the overall market to be flat, with continued strength in their business initiatives contributing to incremental sales [71][72] Question: How is the SRS acquisition impacting the bottom line? - Management confirmed that SRS is cash accretive and contributing positively to both top and bottom lines, with a mix impact of about 40 basis points [105][106] Question: What is the current pricing environment? - Management stated that the pricing environment has settled into a rational market, with no significant changes in promotional activity compared to pre-COVID levels [106][108]