Company Overview - Harmony Gold Mining is one of the largest gold miners globally, with an expected production of up to 1.5 million ounces in the current year [1] Industry Insights - The company operates predominantly in South Africa and is involved in various growth projects, indicating a strategic focus on expanding its operations [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities like gold, and has transitioned to a value investing-focused platform [1]

Core Insights - Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) and Gold Fields Limited (GFI) are benefiting from a surge in gold prices, currently above $3,300 per ounce, driven by global economic uncertainties and investor demand for safe-haven assets [1][2] - Gold prices have increased approximately 27% this year, with central banks accumulating gold reserves amid geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes [2] - A comparison of HMY and GFI is relevant for investors looking for exposure in the precious metals sector [1] Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) - HMY is South Africa's largest gold producer by volume, with production of approximately 1.56 million ounces in fiscal 2024 [4] - The Wafi-Golpu project in Papua New Guinea has an estimated gold reserve of 13 million ounces and is seen as a potential game-changer for HMY [5] - The Eva Copper project in Australia, acquired in 2022, is expected to produce 55,000-60,000 tons of copper annually and is part of HMY's strategy to transition into a low-cost gold and copper mining company [6] - HMY's net cash increased by about 53% to $592 million at the end of Q3 fiscal 2025 [7] - HMY has a dividend policy to pay 20% of net free cash generated, with a current dividend yield of 1.4% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of approximately 19.4% [8] Gold Fields Limited (GFI) - GFI's gold production increased roughly 19% year-over-year to 551,000 ounces in Q1 2025, with a production guidance of 2.25-2.45 million ounces for the year [10] - The acquisition of Osisko Mining in October 2024 strengthens GFI's portfolio and expands its presence in Quebec [11] - GFI's Windfall project in Quebec targets an annual production of 300,000 ounces of gold [12] - GFI's net debt decreased to $1,981 million at the end of Q1 2025, and it offers a dividend yield of 2.5% with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 17.3% [15] Valuation and Performance - Year-to-date, HMY stock has increased by 71%, while GFI stock has risen by 91.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 55.4% [16] - HMY trades at a forward earnings multiple of 4.93, representing a 60% discount compared to the industry average of 12.4 [17] - GFI trades at a forward earnings multiple of 8.74, which is below the industry average [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY's 2025 EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 190.8%, while GFI's EPS growth is estimated at 93.9% [20][24] Investment Considerations - Both HMY and GFI are well-positioned to capitalize on the current gold price environment, with HMY appearing to have a more attractive valuation and stronger growth projections [26]

Group 1 - Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) is confident in achieving its fiscal 2025 production guidance of 1.4-1.5 million ounces of gold despite a 6% year-over-year decline in gold output to approximately 1.11 million ounces in the first nine months due to unprecedented rainfall affecting operations [1][6] - The company raised its underground recovered grade guidance to 6.00g/t from 5.80g/t, expecting to exceed this target based on strong performances from its Mponeng and Moab Khotsong assets [2][6] - HMY's shares have increased by 68.9% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 58.7%, attributed to a surge in gold prices [5] Group 2 - AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) reported a 22% year-over-year increase in gold production to 720,000 ounces in the first quarter of 2025, marking its strongest first-quarter production since 2020 [3] - Gold Fields Limited (GFI) achieved a 19% year-over-year increase in attributable equivalent gold production to 551,000 ounces in the first quarter of 2025 and remains on track to meet its production guidance for the year [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY's fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a significant year-over-year rise of 190.8%, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [7] Group 3 - HMY is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.87, which is approximately 61.7% lower than the industry average of 12.72X, and holds a Value Score of B [8] - HMY stock is rated as a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [10]

Company Overview - Harmony Gold is currently ranked 1 (Strong Buy) in the Zacks Rank system, indicating strong potential for outperforming the market in the near term [3] - The company has seen a significant increase in its full-year earnings estimate, which has risen by 43.9% over the past quarter, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [4] Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, Harmony Gold has gained approximately 83.1%, significantly outperforming the Basic Materials sector, which has returned an average of 15.8% [4] - Within the Mining - Gold industry, Harmony Gold ranks 12 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with the industry itself averaging a gain of 58.7% this year, indicating that Harmony Gold is performing better than its peers [6] Comparative Analysis - Another stock in the Basic Materials sector, Novozymes A/S, has a year-to-date return of 22.7% and also holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [5] - Novozymes A/S belongs to the Chemical - Specialty industry, which is currently ranked 89, with an average year-to-date gain of 5.5%, showing a stark contrast to Harmony Gold's performance [6] Sector Context - The Basic Materials sector consists of 238 individual stocks and is ranked 10 in the Zacks Sector Rank, which evaluates sectors based on the average Zacks Rank of individual companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) is focusing on long-term growth through the execution of two key development projects: the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project in Papua New Guinea and the Eva Copper project in Australia [1]. Group 1: Wafi-Golpu Project - The Wafi-Golpu project is a significant asset for HMY, with an estimated gold reserve of 13 million ounces, making it one of the largest copper-gold block cave projects globally [2]. - HMY is currently negotiating with its joint venture partner, Newmont Corporation, and the PNG Government regarding the Mining Development Contract necessary for a Special Mining Lease, with permitting on track [2]. Group 2: Eva Copper Project - The Eva Copper project in Australia is considered low-risk and adds to HMY's global copper-gold footprint, aligning with its goal of becoming a low-cost mining company [3]. - HMY acquired Eva Copper in 2022, and the project is expected to produce between 55,000 to 60,000 tons of copper annually, with a feasibility study update currently in progress [3]. Group 3: Strategic Diversification - HMY's strategy includes diversifying beyond its South African gold operations, with a focus on the Wafi-Golpu and Eva Copper projects to drive transformative growth [4]. - The paired focus on these projects positions HMY uniquely in the market, enhancing its growth potential [4]. Group 4: Market Performance and Valuation - HMY shares have increased by 64.9% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which rose by 33.4% [7]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 5.26, which is approximately 56.3% lower than the industry average of 12.04 [9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY's fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 190.8%, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [10].

Core Insights - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) shares have surged 75.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's growth of 53% and the S&P 500's increase of 5.9% [2] - The stock's performance is attributed to rising gold prices and strong operational results, with peers Gold Fields Limited (GFI) and DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) gaining 83.6% and 59% respectively [2] Performance Metrics - HMY's stock has consistently traded above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since January 17, 2025, indicating a bullish trend, despite currently being below the 50-day SMA [5] - The stock trades at a forward price/earnings ratio of 5.05X, approximately 60% below the industry average, highlighting its value appeal [7][16] Growth Drivers - HMY is South Africa's largest gold producer, with an output of approximately 1.56 million ounces in fiscal 2024, supported by projects like Wafi-Golpu and Eva Copper [10] - The Wafi-Golpu project is expected to significantly enhance HMY's reserves, with an estimated 13 million ounces of gold, and is currently in negotiations for a Mining Development Contract [11] - The Eva Copper project, acquired in 2022, is anticipated to produce 55,000-60,000 tons of copper annually and is supported by a conditional grant from the Queensland government [12] Market Conditions - Gold prices have increased by roughly 28% this year, driven by global trade tensions and central bank purchases, with current prices hovering above $3,300 per ounce [13] - HMY reported a 30% increase in average gold prices received, reaching $2,497 per ounce for the nine months ending March 31, 2025, which is expected to enhance profitability [14] Financial Health - HMY's net cash rose approximately 53% to $592 million by the end of Q3 fiscal 2025, indicating strong financial health [15] - The company has a dividend policy to distribute 20% of net free cash to shareholders, with a current dividend yield of 1.3% and a five-year annualized growth rate of about 19.4% [15] Valuation and Earnings Outlook - HMY's stock is considered attractive from a valuation perspective, trading at a significant discount compared to its peers [16] - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 have been revised upward over the past 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [19] Investment Recommendation - The combination of key development projects, favorable gold prices, solid financials, and attractive valuation positions HMY as a strong investment opportunity [21]

Core Insights - Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) experienced a 24% increase in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) in Q3 FY25, with total cash costs rising 22% year over year, indicating pressure on margins due to higher labor and electricity costs [1][6]. Cost Structure - Labor and electricity are the largest components of Harmony's cost structure, contributing significantly to the overall increase in costs [1][6]. - Electricity costs rose by 21% in fiscal 2024 due to higher tariffs from Eskom, and the company is implementing energy-saving initiatives and a renewable energy program, but relief from high electricity costs is not expected in the near term [2]. Peer Comparison - AngloGold Ashanti plc reported a 1% year-over-year increase in AISC to $1,640 per ounce, with managed operations seeing a 2% decline in AISC, while non-managed joint ventures experienced a 37% surge [3]. - Gold Fields Limited reported a 7% year-over-year decline in AISC to $1,625 per ounce, with expectations for AISC in the range of $1,500-$1,650 per ounce for FY25 [4]. Stock Performance and Valuation - HMY shares have increased by 78.1% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which rose by 53% [5][6]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 190.8%, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [7]. - HMY is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 5.13, representing a 59.4% discount to the industry average of 12.62X, and holds a Value Score of B [8].

Group 1 - Guolian Minsheng (01456) expects a net profit of RMB 1.129 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1183% [1] - NIO-SW (09866) saw a rise of over 10% as its sub-brand, Lido, officially launched pre-sales for its new model L90, priced starting at RMB 279,900, which is competitive against similar models [1] - China CNR (01766) rose over 7% following a profit warning, with the rail transit equipment industry showing high demand and Q2 performance exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - Coal stocks experienced a broad increase, with companies like China Qinfa (00866) and China Shenhua (01088) rising over 4%, driven by strong coal prices amid high temperatures [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a rise of 1.5%, with expected net profit growth of about 54% year-on-year for the first half of the year, although short-term impacts from copper tariffs are anticipated [1] Group 3 - WanGuo Data-SW (09698) increased over 6% after its REIT completed offline inquiries with a subscription multiple of 166 times, indicating significant valuation potential [2] - Hengrui Medicine (01276) rose over 4%, reaching a new high, with expectations that its performance and business development will act as key catalysts [2] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increased over 5% as the merger of two shipbuilding companies approaches completion, with Q2 performance exceeding expectations [2] Group 4 - Bitcoin-related stocks saw significant gains, with Bit Origin (BTOG.US) rising 51.72% and SharpLink Gaming (SBET.US) increasing 17.15%, driven by a surge in Bitcoin prices [3] - Gold stocks strengthened amid geopolitical tensions, with Gold ETF (GLD.US) rising 0.96% and Barrick Mining (B.US) increasing 0.71% [3] Group 5 - British Petroleum (BP.US) rose 3.55% as the company anticipates an increase in Q2 oil production and strong trading performance [7] - Huami Technology (ZEPP.US) surged over 69%, projecting a 30% revenue growth for Q2, marking its first growth in three years [7]

Company Performance - Harmony Gold (HMY) closed at $14.62, reflecting a +1.67% change from the previous day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.33% [1] - The stock has decreased by 3.75% over the past month, underperforming the Basic Materials sector's gain of 1.87% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.07% [1] Earnings Estimates - The upcoming earnings release is anticipated, with Zacks Consensus Estimates projecting earnings of $2.85 per share and revenue of $0 million, indicating a +190.82% change in earnings from the previous year [2] - Recent estimate revisions are crucial as they reflect near-term business trends and analyst optimism regarding profitability [3] Analyst Ratings - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently rates Harmony Gold at 1 (Strong Buy), with a historical average annual return of +25% for stocks rated 1 since 1988 [5] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for Harmony Gold has increased by 17.77% [5] Valuation Metrics - Harmony Gold's Forward P/E ratio is 5.05, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 13.04 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.09, significantly lower than the Mining - Gold industry's average PEG ratio of 0.55 [6] Industry Context - The Mining - Gold industry is part of the Basic Materials sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 23, placing it in the top 10% of over 250 industries [7] - Strong individual industry groups, as measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, tend to outperform weaker groups by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Key Points - The article highlights significant stock movements in the Hong Kong and US markets, with various companies experiencing notable gains and losses due to recent developments and announcements [1][2][3][4][5] Hong Kong Market Highlights - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) surged nearly 20%, with a year-to-date increase of 320%, as the company proposed a spin-off of its gold segment for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Innovent Biologics (09969) rose nearly 4% after announcing the clinical approval of its new ADC innovative drug ICP-B794 [1] - North Sea Kangcheng - B (01228) increased over 50%, with its stock price doubling in three days, marking it as a rare disease stock in the Hong Kong market [1] - Hong Kong Travel (00308) saw a rise of over 24%, achieving a year-to-date stock price doubling, driven by market speculation on stablecoin cross-border payment scenarios [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) gained nearly 3% after receiving drug registration approval for Mesalazine enteric-coated tablets, enhancing its product line in the immune system treatment sector [1] - Ruian Real Estate (00272) rose over 4%, with a cumulative contract property sales amount for the first six months increasing by 457% year-on-year [1] - Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals - B (02616) increased over 3%, planning to raise HKD 467 million for clinical research on CS2009 [1] - Q Technology (01478) rose over 7%, with mobile camera module sales of 32.648 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) increased by 6%, with a new cycle logic continuing to strengthen, and Tianfeng Securities set a target price of HKD 154 [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750) rose over 3%, reaching a new high since its listing, following a deepened strategic cooperation agreement with Geely Automobile [2] - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.49%, New World Development (00200) up 6.15%, and others showing similar gains [2] - Gold stocks faced declines, with Golden Resources (GORO.US) dropping nearly 10% and others following suit [4] US Market Highlights - Stablecoin concept stocks continued to rise, with Tiger Brokers (TIGR.US) increasing over 8% [4] - Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) rose over 2% as the company seeks SEC approval for a blue-chip cryptocurrency ETF [4] - Wolfspeed (WOLF.US) continued to rise, with stock prices increasing over 9% [4] - Intel (INTC.US) rose over 7% after announcing company-wide layoffs [4] - JD.com (JD.US) increased over 2% as it launched its "Double Hundred Plan" for its delivery service [4]