Core Points - MAC Copper Limited is updating on the proposed acquisition of 100% of its issued share capital by Harmony Gold (Australia) Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited [1] Group 1 - The acquisition is structured as a Jersey law scheme of arrangement under Article 125 of the Companies (Jersey) Law [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold mining stocks experienced a significant increase, driven by a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a historical high and has seen a 42% increase this year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG.US) rose over 6% [1] - Barrick Gold (B.US) increased by more than 5% [1] - Harmony Gold (HMY.US) saw an increase of over 4% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Spot gold prices rose nearly 1%, continuing to set historical highs [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 42% [1]

Valuation and Performance - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 6.09X, which represents a discount of approximately 60.9% compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's average of 15.59X [1][5] - HMY's shares have increased by 82.8% this year, although this is lower than the industry's rise of 101.6% and the S&P 500's increase of 12.7% [2] Growth Projects - HMY is focused on key projects such as Wafi-Golpu and Eva Copper, which are expected to enhance its gold and copper production capabilities [5][11] - The Wafi-Golpu project has an estimated gold reserve of 13 million ounces and is currently in negotiations for a Mining Development Contract [13] - The Eva Copper project is expected to produce 55,000-60,000 tons of copper annually, with first production anticipated in 2028 [14] Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged by 39% this year, driven by factors such as aggressive trade policies, central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions [15][16] - For fiscal 2025, HMY recorded a 31% increase in average gold prices received, reaching $2,620 per ounce, which is expected to enhance profitability [17] Financial Health - HMY has a strong balance sheet, with net cash increasing by approximately 295% to $628 million in fiscal 2025 [18] - The company ended the fiscal year with liquidity of $1,179 million and offers a dividend yield of 1.3% [18] Cost Challenges - HMY experienced a 20% increase in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) to $1,806 per ounce in fiscal 2025, driven by higher labor and electricity costs [19][20] - The company anticipates continued cost pressures, particularly from electricity and labor, which are significant components of its cost structure [20] Production Issues - HMY's gold production for fiscal 2025 fell by 5% to around 1.48 million ounces, impacted by adverse weather and safety-related stoppages [22] - Production guidance for fiscal 2026 indicates continued challenges, with expected output of 1.4-1.5 million ounces [22][23] Earnings Outlook - Earnings estimates for HMY for fiscal 2026 have been revised downward over the past 60 days, indicating potential challenges ahead [23]

Core Insights - Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd.'s gold production for fiscal 2025 decreased by 5% to approximately 1.48 million ounces from about 1.56 million ounces the previous year, primarily due to adverse weather and operational challenges [1][7] Production Challenges - The company met its production guidance, but output was affected by interruptions caused by unprecedented rainfall in South Africa, which impacted electricity supply to its West Wits operations [2][7] - Safety-related stoppages also contributed to temporary production halts, particularly affecting the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2025 [2] Future Production Outlook - Harmony Gold anticipates producing between 1.4 million and 1.5 million ounces of gold in fiscal 2026, indicating ongoing production challenges and suggesting flat year-over-year production [3][7] Peer Comparison - In contrast, AngloGold Ashanti plc reported a 21% year-over-year increase in gold production to 804,000 ounces in the second quarter of 2025, driven by strong performance from its managed operations [4] - Gold Fields Limited experienced a 24% year-over-year increase in attributable equivalent gold production to 1,136,000 ounces in the first half of 2025, remaining on track to meet its production guidance for the year [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Harmony Gold's shares have increased by 86.6% year to date, compared to a 100.2% rise in the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, largely due to a surge in gold prices [6] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 6.23, which represents a 59.8% discount to the industry average of 15.48 [9]

Group 1 - The gold sector experienced a significant rise, with spot gold surpassing $3,560, marking a new historical high [1] - Notable stock performances include Harmony Gold (HMY.US) up over 7%, Royal Gold (RGLD.US) up 0.34%, Coeur Mining (CDE.US) up over 3%, New Gold (NGD.US) up over 1%, DRDGOLD (DRD.US) up over 5%, and Kinross Gold (KGC.US) up over 2% [1] - According to Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital, foreign central bank gold holdings have exceeded U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996 as gold prices reach record levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold sector is experiencing a significant rise, with several companies seeing notable stock price increases as gold prices reach historical highs [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Harmony Gold (HMY.US) increased by over 6% [1] - Royal Gold (RGLD.US) rose by more than 2% [1] - Coeur Mining (CDE.US) saw an increase of over 2% [1] - New Gold (NGD.US) gained approximately 1.9% [1] - DRDGOLD (DRD.US) surged by over 4.5% [1] - Kinross Gold (KGC.US) rose by more than 3% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Spot gold prices surpassed $3,500, marking a new historical high [1] - Silver prices also increased, reaching $40.86 per ounce, the highest level in fourteen years [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a new all-time high, surpassing $3,500 an ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1][10] - The price of gold has increased over 30% in 2025, with a continuous rally for six sessions [2][10] - Key factors contributing to gold's rise include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, concerns over Fed independence, and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][5][6][7] Gold Market Dynamics - Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts: Market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, making gold more attractive as lower rates diminish the appeal of yield-bearing assets [4] - A Weaker Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen approximately 10%, making gold cheaper for international buyers and boosting global demand [5] - Concerns Over Fed Independence: Political pressure on the Fed has raised doubts about its independence, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6] - Lingering Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty: Ongoing trade tensions and fragile economic growth continue to drive investors towards gold for stability [7] Investment Opportunities - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): A leading gold producer with strong financials, including a nearly doubled operating cash flow to $1.8 billion in Q2 2025 and a solid project pipeline [8][9] - Idaho Strategic Resources Inc. (IDR): Combines gold production with rare earth elements, ramping up exploration at its Golden Chest Mine while maintaining a low debt profile [12][13] - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY): South Africa's largest gold producer, with significant cash reserves and a projected 128% year-over-year EPS growth for fiscal 2026 [15][16][17] - Gold Fields Limited (GFI): One of the largest unhedged gold producers, showing impressive financial performance with a 94% year-over-year EPS growth estimate for 2025 [18][19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) experienced a significant increase in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) and total cash operating costs due to rising labor and electricity expenses, which are expected to impact margins in the near term [1][2][3]. Cost Structure - AISC rose approximately 20% to $1,806 per ounce in fiscal 2025, driven by a 19% year-over-year increase in total cash operating costs to $1,499 per ounce [1][7]. - Labor and electricity costs are the largest components of HMY's cost structure, with electricity and water expenses increasing by 16% due to higher tariffs from Eskom [2][3][7]. Industry Comparison - Among peers, AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) reported an 8% increase in total cash costs per ounce and a 7% rise in AISC, while Gold Fields Limited (GFI) saw a slight decline in AISC by 0.7% to $1,739 per ounce [4][5]. Price Performance and Valuation - HMY shares have increased by 61.8% year to date, although this is below the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 85.4% [6]. - HMY is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.61, which represents a 67.9% discount to the industry average of 14.36X [9]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY's fiscal 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 127.6%, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [8].

Core Insights - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) reported adjusted earnings of $1.29 per share for fiscal 2025, a 30% increase from the previous year's adjusted earnings of 99 cents [1][6] - Revenues for fiscal 2025 rose 24% year over year to $4,071 million, with average gold prices received increasing 31% to $2,620 per ounce [1][6] Production and Costs - Gold production for fiscal 2025 was 1,479,671 ounces, reflecting a 5% decrease year over year [2][6] - Cash operating costs per ounce increased by 19% year over year to $1,499, while all-in-sustaining costs rose 20% to $1,806 per ounce [2][6] Financial Overview - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents increased by 186% year over year to $738 million [3][6] - Total adjusted free cash flow surged 58% year over year to $614 million in fiscal 2025 [3][6] - Long-term debt at the end of fiscal 2025 was $107 million, up approximately 9% year over year [3][6] Outlook - Harmony Gold anticipates producing between 1.4 million and 1.5 million ounces of gold in fiscal 2026 [4] - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 are projected to rise to $699 million due to investments in high-quality ounces and long-term growth initiatives [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Harmony Gold have increased by 38.7% over the past year, compared to a 59.3% growth in the industry [5][6]

Group 1 - The gold sector is experiencing an upward trend despite market conditions, with significant gains in various gold-related stocks and ETFs [1] - As of the latest update, the Gold ETF (GLD.US) has increased by 0.5%, Barrick Mining (B.US) has risen over 1.4%, Gold Fields (GFI.US) has gained over 2.4%, and Harmony Gold (HMY.US) has surged over 5% [1] - Spot gold prices have reached $3,440 per ounce, marking a new high since June 16, with a daily increase of 0.68% [1]