Core Insights - The article discusses Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and its stock performance following the release of Q3 2024 earnings, noting that the stock was trading around $272 per share at that time [1]. Group 1 - The stock of Illinois Tool Works has experienced fluctuations since the last coverage in late 2024 [1]. - The author has a strong academic background with a master's degree in Analytics and a bachelor's degree in Accounting, contributing to their expertise in investment analysis [1]. Group 2 - The author has over 10 years of experience in the investment arena, starting as an analyst and progressing to a management role [1]. - Dividend investing is highlighted as a personal interest of the author, indicating a focus on income-generating investments [1].

Valued at a market cap of $86.9 billion, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) is a diversified industrial manufacturing company based in Glenview, Illinois. It designs and produces a wide range of engineered products, including fasteners and components, equipment, consumable systems, and specialty industrial products, that serve markets such as automotive, construction, food equipment, test & measurement, polymers & fluids, and welding. This industrial company has outpaced the broader market over the past 52 w ...

Provide Infrastructure to Key Industries: Semiconductors and memory steal the headlines when it comes to AI CapEx, but data centers are still huge buildings made of steel, generators, turbines, and A/C units. Industrials benefit from the ripple-down effect of these growing needs, and judging by AI hyperscaler capex plans, demand is only going to increase from here. Additionally, increased U.S. defense spending and a rebound in the aerospace sector have provided tailwinds for the sector.AI and Improved Effic ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-K ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission file number 1-4797 ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in its Charter) (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation or Organization ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment strategy, focusing on medium-term investing in growth stories and identifying catalysts for value unlocking or downside risks [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a medium-term investment approach, targeting ideas with catalysts that can unlock value and drive upside [1]. - The strategy includes short selling when there are identified downside catalysts [1]. - The company prefers investing in growth stories that are available at reasonable prices [1]. Group 2: Sector Preferences - The company is a generalist in terms of sector preferences but has significant experience analyzing the industrial, consumer, and technology sectors [1]. - Higher conviction in investments is typically found within the industrial, consumer, and technology sectors due to the author's professional background [1].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.1% and 1.9% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.5% last week, indicating a mixed performance across major indexes [1] - The divergence in market performance was attributed to a rotation in investor preferences rather than overall market weakness, with rising Treasury yields making high-valuation growth stocks less appealing [1] Sector Performance - Optimism regarding economic resilience led to increased buying in cyclically sensitive and defensive sectors, with industrials benefiting from infrastructure and manufacturing strength, financials gaining from higher yields, and energy rising with firmer oil prices [2] - This shift underscores a focus on earnings stability and tangible cash flows among investors [2] Zacks Research Performance - Kennametal Inc. (KMT) shares surged by 44.8% since being upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) on December 8, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.7% increase [3] - Inventiva S.A. (IVA) also saw a return of 42.4% since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 on the same date [4] - An equal-weight portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 index by 7 percentage points, returning 17.81% compared to 10.85% for the index [4] Zacks Recommendations - Clearway Energy, Inc. (CWENA) and Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc. (PRSU) saw share increases of 16.7% and 5.4% respectively since their upgrades to Outperform on December 10 and December 11 [6] - The Zacks Recommendation system aims to predict stock performance over the next 6 to 12 months, based on trends in earnings estimate revisions [7] Focus List and Portfolios - Celanese Corporation (CE) gained 32.9% over the past 12 weeks since being added to the Zacks Focus List, while Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA) returned 29% over the same period [9] - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned 22.1% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 17.9% gain [10] - The Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) returned -1.67% for 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 index's 17.9% gain, but had a return of 16.26% in 2024 compared to the S&P 500's 24.89% [14] Dividend Portfolio Performance - Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) and Fastenal Company (FAST) returned 19.6% and 16.8% respectively over the past 12 weeks, benefiting from investor interest in quality dividend stocks amid market volatility [16] - The Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) returned -0.6% for 2025, underperforming the Dividend Aristocrat ETF's 6.8% gain [17] Top 10 Stocks Performance - Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) increased by 31.4% since January 5, 2026, compared to the S&P 500 Index's 1.1% increase [20] - The Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of 2,472.7% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 561.6% return [21]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing mixed trading patterns with a notable rotation out of technology giants and into broader market sectors [1] - The S&P 500 has slipped around 0.2% to 0.3%, marking a modest decline for the fourth time in the last five days [2] - The Nasdaq Composite has traded approximately 1% lower, with the Nasdaq 100 specifically seeing a 1.4% loss [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by as much as 389 points, or 0.8%, indicating a shift away from tech stocks towards firms expected to benefit from improving growth prospects [2] Economic Indicators - The yield on 10-year Treasuries has remained steady at 4.28% [3] - Upcoming economic data includes the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for January, which are crucial for assessing the labor market and services sector [5] - The week will culminate with the U.S. Employment Report on February 6th, which includes non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings [6] Company-Specific Highlights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares dropped by as much as 15.7% despite stronger-than-expected profits, indicating high expectations for AI-related companies [9] - Uber Technologies (UBER) fell 3% to 5% after its quarterly results and profit forecast fell short of expectations [10] - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rallied by 12% to 14% after delivering stronger-than-expected profits [10] - Eli Lilly (LLY) surged by 9.2% after exceeding profit expectations and providing strong guidance, driven by its obesity drugs [11] - Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) shares soared by 51% following the announcement of its acquisition by Texas Instruments for approximately $7.5 billion [13] - Nvidia (NVDA) shares declined 2.8% due to a broad tech sell-off and uncertainty surrounding its OpenAI investment [14]

Core Viewpoint - Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) is experiencing strong financial performance despite a price target set by Goldman Sachs indicating a potential downside for the stock [1][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, ITW's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 7% to $2.72, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.68 [2][6]. - The company's revenues for Q4 reached $4.09 billion, marking a 4% increase from the previous year, driven by favorable foreign currency translation and strategic acquisitions [2][6]. - For the full year 2025, ITW reported net revenues of $16 billion, a 0.9% increase from the previous year, although adjusted EPS decreased by 10.4% to $10.49 [4]. Future Projections - ITW projects EPS for 2026 to be between $11.00 and $11.40, anticipating a 24% growth in revenue [3][6]. - The company plans to execute $1.5 billion in share buybacks, reflecting confidence in its financial health [3][6]. Market Position - ITW's stock is currently priced at $278.91, reflecting a 5.56% increase with a change of $14.70, and has fluctuated between $263.46 and $282.88 today [4]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $282.88 and a low of $214.66 [4]. - ITW's market capitalization stands at approximately $81.3 billion, with a trading volume of 3,188,697 shares today [5].

Key Takeaways ITW beat Q4 estimates as adjusted EPS rose 7% and revenues grew 4%, aided by FX and acquisitions.Illinois Tool lifted operating margin to 26.5%, up 30 bps, with enterprise initiatives adding 140 bps.ITW guides 2026 EPS of $11.00-$11.40, sees 24% revenue growth, over 100% FCF and $1.5B buybacks.Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $2.72 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.68. Earnings increased 7% year over year.Illinois Tool ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue growth of over 4% and a 7% increase in GAAP EPS to $2.72, with organic growth of 1.3% marking the best quarterly performance of the year [3][4] - Operating income reached $1.1 billion, an increase of 5%, with segment margins at 27.7%, up 120 basis points [4][7] - Free cash flow conversion to net income was 109% for the quarter, and the company repurchased $375 million of its shares [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Automotive OEM**: Revenue increased by 6%, with organic revenue up 2%. North America grew 2%, while Europe declined 1% [9] - **Food Equipment**: Revenue growth of 4% with organic growth of 1%, driven by a 3% growth in service [10] - **Test and Measurement and Electronics**: Revenue up 6% with organic revenue up 2%, showing improvement in semiconductor activity [10] - **Welding**: Revenue grew 3% with organic growth of 2%, and operating margin reached 33.3%, a 210 basis points improvement [11] - **Polymers and Fluids**: Strong top-line growth of 5% organic growth, supported by new product launches [11] - **Construction Products**: Organic growth down 4%, but margins expanded by 100 basis points to 29% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America grew about 2%, Asia Pacific was up 3%, while Europe declined 2% [7] - China showed strong growth in the automotive sector, with expectations of mid to high single-digit growth in 2026 [80][81] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for organic growth of 1%-3% in 2026, with a focus on customer-backed innovation (CBI) as a key growth driver [6][14] - The company plans to invest approximately $800 million in high-return internal projects to accelerate organic growth [13] - The company is open to M&A opportunities but remains selective, focusing on high-quality acquisitions that extend long-term growth potential [63][64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of the semiconductor market recovery and the overall improvement in demand for industrial markets [23][24] - The company expects to maintain high-quality growth with attractive incremental margins in the mid to high forties for 2026 [14][93] - Management noted that inflation in employee-related costs could offset some margin improvements, but overall margins are expected to improve [99] Other Important Information - The company achieved a 2.4% CBI-fueled revenue growth in 2025, with a goal of 3%+ by 2030 [5][6] - Patent filings increased by 9% in 2025, indicating a strong pipeline for future revenue growth [5][56] Q&A Session Summary Question: Improvement in Test and Measurement Segment - Management noted a solid quarter for Test and Measurement, with improvements in semiconductor demand and general industrial bookings [22][24] Question: Margin Expansion Across Businesses - Management expects all segments to improve operating margins in 2026, driven by enterprise initiatives and improved CBI contributions [26][28] Question: Price-Cost Dynamics - Management indicated that price-cost dynamics are expected to be slightly favorable in 2026, but not a major driver of margin improvement [35][36] Question: Seasonality Expectations - Management confirmed typical seasonality for 2026, with Q1 expected to contribute about 23% of the full year EPS [47][48] Question: CBI Contribution and Product Lifecycle Management - Management expressed confidence in achieving a higher CBI contribution in 2026, with ongoing improvements in product lifecycle management [55][57] Question: Growth in China and the U.S. - Management expects strong growth in China, particularly in the EV space, while North America is projected to show encouraging growth [76][81] Question: Sequential Revenue Growth - Management attributed the 4% sequential revenue growth in Q4 to a combination of ITW-specific factors and broader market improvements [86][95]