Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher on February 25, 2026, with base metals leading the gains [1]. - The A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival, but the slope will be slower than in January, pricing in the warm Spring Festival consumption and technology event hotspots. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate after the festival [16]. - The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The US GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all showed varying degrees of increase on February 25, 2026, with the CSI 500 futures having a relatively large daily increase of 1.61% [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures mostly declined on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively large daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index increased by 0.15% on February 25, 2026, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 225 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34 bp on February 25, 2026, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24 bp [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On February 25, 2026, most industries showed an upward trend, with non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals having relatively large daily increases of 3.53%, 4.26%, and 2.37% respectively. The consumer services and media industries declined, with decreases of 0.52% and 0.92% respectively [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On February 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14%, NYMEX natural gas decreased by 2.94%, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 4.75% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold decreased by 1.25% on February 24, 2026, while CONEX silver increased by 0.57% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME tin, etc. showed different trends on February 24, 2026. For example, LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and other agricultural products also had different price changes on February 24, 2026. For example, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.05% [8]. Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, with the cross - regional passenger flow in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season reaching 5.08 billion person - times, a record high. However, real estate sales were at a seasonal low, and the social financing in January started steadily. Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the social financing data needs to be observed in combination with January - February data [16]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, personal consumption was the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies may support the prices of gold and silver in the short term. The crude oil market is dominated by geopolitical uncertainties, and the A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate, and the RMB may continue to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; stock index options are expected to be volatile; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are all expected to be volatile [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Many non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [17]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. are expected to be volatile [19]. - **Agriculture**: Many agricultural products such as cotton, natural rubber, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend, while sugar is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker [19].

美媒报道，美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克的儿子布兰登·卢特尼克和凯尔·卢特尼克可能从最高法院周五 的裁决中获得经济利益。该裁决宣告了总统唐纳德·特朗普大部分广泛紧急关税无效，此举为寻求退还 已缴关税打开了大门。布兰登和凯尔·卢特尼克目前领导金融服务公司坎托·菲茨杰拉德及其母公司。 为何重要 最高法院周五的裁决主要针对依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的关税，该法案自特朗普于2025年1月 上任以来，一直是其经济政策的核心支柱。特朗普曾多次宣布、实施、暂停和恢复对美国贸易伙伴征收 一系列不同税率的关税，以遏制移民、毒品走私并减少贸易逆差。 据媒体今年夏天审阅的一封信件，一位坎托公司的代表据称表示，该公司愿意以公司已缴关税的20%至 30%来交易关税退款权。 根据媒体的报道，该代表写道："因此，对于一家支付了1000万美元的公司，他们可以预期在一笔交易 中获得200万至300万美元。我们目前有能力交易高达数亿美元的此类权利，未来很可能扩大规模以满足 潜在需求。" 特朗普利用1977年的《国际紧急经济权力法》在未经国会批准或事先调查的情况下征收关税，这引发了 法律警报。该法律赋予总统在国家紧急状态下实施经济制裁的广泛权力 ...

格隆汇2月21日｜周五（2月20日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨1.53个基点，报4.0826%， 北京时间21:30披露美国GDP和美联储青睐的PCE通胀数据时刷新日低至4.0520%， 美国最高法院宣判特 朗普关税政策违法之际拉升至4.1018%刷新日高，本周（四个交易日）累计上涨3.43个基点。两年期美 债收益率涨2.07个基点，报3.4781%，日内交投于3.4318%-3.4949%区间，也在前述两个关键的时间节点 先后刷新日低和日高，本周累涨7.04个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court has overturned Trump's large-scale global tariff policy, marking a significant legal defeat for him since returning to the political arena [2][3]. Group 1: Court Ruling - The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump's global tariff policy was illegal [2]. - The court stated that Trump's use of the Federal Emergency Powers Act to impose "reciprocal" tariffs and targeted import taxes aimed at combating fentanyl smuggling exceeded presidential authority [3]. Group 2: Refund Issues - The court did not clarify whether importers are entitled to refunds, leaving this complex legal issue to lower courts [4]. - If refund requests are fully approved, the total amount could reach $170 billion, which exceeds half of the total revenue generated from Trump's tariffs [4]. Group 3: White House Response - The White House indicated it would quickly utilize other legal tools to replace these tariffs, although these alternatives are generally more cumbersome and limited in scope compared to the broad powers claimed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [5]. Group 4: Market Impact - The news has led to significant volatility in global assets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to announce decisions on key tariff policies from the Trump administration, which could significantly impact the legal standing of these tariffs and the associated costs for importers [1][2]. Group 1: Supreme Court Decisions - The Supreme Court will release opinions on February 20, 24, and 25, with the potential to overturn tariffs that currently cost importers over $16 billion monthly [1]. - The case under review involves the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with estimates suggesting total tariffs could exceed $170 billion by February 20 [1]. - Justices have expressed skepticism regarding the president's unilateral authority to impose tariffs, indicating a possible challenge to Trump's actions [1][6]. Group 2: Congressional Challenges - The House of Representatives has passed legislation to terminate certain tariffs on Canadian imports, marking a significant political challenge to Trump's tariff policies [2]. - Six Republican representatives joined Democrats in supporting the bill, highlighting a weakening grip of Trump on the party as midterm elections approach [2]. - Senate Republican leaders expect a similar vote in the Senate, although Trump is likely to veto any legislation aimed at repealing his tariffs [2]. Group 3: Political Implications - Trump has warned Republican lawmakers that opposing his tariff policies could lead to severe political consequences in upcoming elections [3]. - The recent House vote represents a setback for House Speaker Mike Johnson, a key ally of Trump, as bipartisan support for the bill indicates growing discontent with Trump's economic agenda [3]. - The Democratic Party has capitalized on the situation, criticizing Republican lawmakers for supporting policies that increase living costs for voters [2][3]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The tariffs in question are estimated to impose over $16 billion in monthly costs on importers, which could have significant repercussions for the overall economy [1][6]. - The Supreme Court's decision on these tariffs will serve as a critical statement on presidential power and could influence future trade policies [6].

美国最高法院已将2月20日定为判决意见发布日，提前了对特朗普总统全面关税制度作出潜在裁决的时 间表。 预测市场 Polymarket的交易者认为，最高法院裁定支持特朗普关税政策的概率仅为28%。该案一 旦作出不利裁决，可能触发超过1300亿美元的关税退款，并重塑美国贸易政策。（第一财经） ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 美国最高法院已将2月20日定为判决意见发布日，提前了对特朗普总统全面关税制度作出潜在裁决的时 间表。 预测市场 Polymarket的交易者认为，最高法院裁定支持特朗普关税政策的概率仅为28%。该案一 旦作出不利裁决，可能触发超过1300亿美元的关税退款，并重塑美国贸易政策。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to announce a ruling on February 20 regarding a case that could potentially overturn President Trump's key tariff policies, which has significant implications for both domestic and global trade and financial markets [1] - The tariffs have imposed a heavy burden on U.S. importers, with federal data indicating that these tariffs cost businesses over $16 billion monthly. Economic analyst Chris Kennedy estimates that if the current pace of tariffs continues, the total amount collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could exceed $170 billion by February 20 [1] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, it would represent one of the largest legal defeats since his return to the White House, as the court is reviewing the "Liberation Day Tariffs" introduced on April 2, which impose tariffs of 10% to 50% on most imported goods [1] Group 2 - Concurrently, signs of backlash against the tariff policy are emerging in Congress, with the Republican-led House passing legislation to terminate certain tariffs on Canadian imports, aimed at revoking the "state of emergency" declaration that provided legal grounds for these tariffs [2] - The White House has indicated that if the tariffs are struck down by the court, alternative legal measures will be quickly employed, although Trump has acknowledged that implementing these alternatives would be more complex [2] - The Supreme Court held hearings on the case on November 5, with some justices suggesting that Trump may have exceeded his legal authority in imposing tariffs using emergency powers [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to announce a ruling on February 20 regarding a case that could potentially overturn key tariff policies implemented by President Trump, which has garnered significant attention both domestically and globally [1] - The tariffs in question have imposed an additional burden on U.S. importers, costing businesses over $16 billion monthly, with total tariffs potentially exceeding $170 billion by February 20 if the current pace is maintained [1] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, it would represent one of the largest legal defeats since his return to the White House, particularly concerning the "Liberation Day Tariffs" introduced on April 2, which impose tariffs of 10% to 50% on most imported goods [1] Group 2 - Concurrently, there are signs of backlash against the tariff policies within Congress, as the Republican-led House recently passed legislation aimed at terminating certain tariffs on Canadian imports, which were justified by a "state of emergency" declaration [2] - The White House has indicated that if the tariffs are struck down by the court, alternative legal measures will be swiftly employed, although Trump has acknowledged that implementing these alternatives would be more complex [2] - During the hearings held on November 5, some Supreme Court justices suggested that Trump may have exceeded his legal authority in imposing tariffs under emergency powers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to announce decisions on February 20, which may significantly impact the Trump administration's tariff policies, potentially overturning tariffs that cost importers over $16 billion monthly [1][6]. Group 1: Supreme Court Decisions - The Supreme Court has scheduled opinion release dates for February 20, 24, and 25, with the tariff case being one of 12 unresolved cases from 2025 [1]. - The case involves tariffs imposed by Trump on Canada and other countries, citing ineffective control over fentanyl exports [1]. - Economists estimate that tariffs under review could exceed $170 billion by February 20, with significant monthly costs to importers [1][6]. Group 2: Congressional Challenges - The House of Representatives, controlled by Republicans, voted on February 12 to terminate certain tariffs on Canadian imports, marking a significant political challenge to Trump's tariff policies [2]. - Six Republican representatives joined Democrats in supporting the bill, indicating a weakening grip of Trump on the party [2]. - Senate Republican leaders expect a similar vote in the Senate, reflecting growing concerns over the economic agenda ahead of the midterm elections [2]. Group 3: Political Implications - Trump warned Republican lawmakers opposing his tariffs of political consequences, indicating potential repercussions in upcoming elections [3]. - The recent House vote represents a setback for House Speaker Mike Johnson, a key Trump ally, who has been instrumental in blocking tariff-related legislation [3]. - The political landscape is shifting, with recent elections showing unexpected Democratic gains, complicating Republican efforts to maintain control [4]. Group 4: Future of Tariffs - The Supreme Court's decision on tariffs is anticipated to be a significant statement on presidential power, with the possibility of a divided opinion [6]. - The White House has indicated that if tariffs are overturned, alternative legal measures will be pursued, although they may be more complex [6]. - The ongoing tariff dispute is expected to have substantial implications for importers and the overall economy, given the high monthly costs associated with the tariffs [6].