王爷说财经讯：特朗普关税一加，美国关税收入大幅增加，但最新数据显示，即便如此，相比于美国巨额的财政赤字，美国这点关税收入简直是"杯水车 薪"！ 那么目前美国财政预算赤字到底有多大？美国这个财政窟窿有多大？特朗普关税又能给美国带来多少收入呢？一起来看看数据吧！ 01、2025财年美国财政赤字或高达1.8万亿美元！ 10月9日，据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）最新公布的数据显示，美国总统特朗普所推行的关税政策给美国带来了相当可观的收入，然而，这部分额外进账 却在很大程度上被首次突破万一美元大关的美债利息支出，以及其他持续攀升的各项开支所抵销，导致美国整体的财政状况并没有得到太大的改善。 02、美国财政支出主要增加在哪？ 与此同时，按照CBO的估算结果显示，在2025财政年度，美国总收入增长了3080亿美元，增幅达到6%，但是总支出也同步增加了3010亿美元，增幅为4%。 那么美国到底是什么支出最多呢？ 王爷说财经注意到，据CBO公布的数据显示，在美国这些支出项目中，美债的利息支出成为推动整体开支上涨的关键因素，其年度总额更是有史以来首次 超越了1万亿美元。 对此，美国财经媒体指出，在经济扩张的时期，美国却出现如此高 ...

Core Insights - US consumer spending in August showed strong growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% after inflation adjustment, surpassing the expected 0.2% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][3][5] Consumer Spending Breakdown - The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by goods consumption, which rose by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating strong purchasing willingness for non-essential items such as furniture, clothing, and entertainment [2][4] - In contrast, the growth in service spending was more moderate, with indications that high-income consumers continued to spend despite potential price increases due to tariffs [2][6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Persistent inflation remains a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, with the core PCE year-on-year growth stabilizing at 2.9%, well above the target [3][5] - The report highlighted that service costs, particularly in financial services, dining, and transportation, were major contributors to overall price increases, while goods prices showed weakness [6][8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock futures showed little volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3% [10] - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.33 [10] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased to 4.158%, while spot gold prices increased by about $6, reaching $3755.53 per ounce [14]

The U.S. has collected more than $200 billion in tariff revenues this year, underscoring the scale of President Donald Trump's trade duties as a significant source of government income. Tariff revenues hit $31.4 billion in August, the largest monthly total in 2025. September has already climbed to $29.7 billion and is on pace to set a new high.BESSENT DEFENDS TRUMP'S TARIFFS AGAINST CLAIMS THEY HARM US BUSINESSES Total tariff revenue for 2025 has reached $213.3 billion, according to the latest "Customs and ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美联储本周宣布降息25个基点，重启中断了9个月的降息周期。周五，在智通财经举办的一场直播活动中，两位与会嘉 宾认为，今年年底前美联储很可能再降息两次，但随着特朗普关税政策向通胀的进一步传导，未来美联储能否持续降息 存在较大的不确定性。 来源：智通财经 美联储最新公布的利率点阵图中值显示，今年年底前还会有2次降息，每次25个基点，较6月的点阵图多了1次降息。 她表示，年内美联储大概率会持续推进降息，再降息两次的概率比较大，但并非"板上钉钉"。 "我们从这次会议公布的利率'点阵图'的分布来看，美联储内部对于年内的降息节奏的分歧很大。这也意味着后续的政 策路径并不是非常绝对的，还是具有一定的不确定性，不排除未来随着通胀、就业走势变化而发生降息节奏改变的可能 性。"白雪说。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英也表示，虽然目前来看年底前再降息两次是大概率事件，但随着特朗普关税对 通胀的进一步传导，10月和12月会议还是要看具体的数据表现来决定降息与否以及幅度。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在 会后的新闻发布会上也明确表示，未来每一次会议都会单独来看，会坚持数据依赖的决策方式。 刘英提到，此次会议上展 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国最高法院周四宣布，将于11月5日就总统特朗普在其第二任期内实施的全球性 关税计划是否合法举行口头辩论，这将成为对特朗普经济及贸易政策核心主张的一次重大考验。案件焦 点在于特朗普是否超越了总统职权，滥用《国际紧急经济权力法案》(IEEPA)赋予的紧急权力。 特朗普自2025年2月起，先后以毒品走私、非法移民和贸易逆差为由，宣布进入"国家紧急状态"，并据 此对包括中国、加拿大、墨西哥在内的大多数国家进口商品征收至少10%的普遍性关税，并实施更高 的"互惠关税"。 华尔街分析师预计，短期内与关税高度相关的公司股票可能因市场预期修复而上涨，但中长期不确定性 仍高。 专家指出，即便法院推翻关税，消费者在未来的假日购物季也不会立即受益，因为今年的进口和库存采 购已在数月前完成。Tripathi预计，至少需6至8个月才可能看到市场库存逐步恢复，一年后消费者才会 逐步感受到价格回落。 Kearney消费者研究院负责人Katie Thomas强调，消费者不会获得过去被转嫁的关税退款，但部分公司 可能利用退税减少裁员，并在一定程度上下调零售价格。她指出，真正惠及消费者的关键是减少经济和 政策不确定性，这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate investment in Japan is experiencing significant growth, with a 22% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, surpassing 3 trillion yen for the first time since 2007, driven by low interest rates and rising rental expectations [2][7]. Investment Trends - Real estate investment in Japan reached 3.1932 trillion yen in the first half of 2025, marking a 22% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Tokyo ranks first among global cities for real estate investment, with overseas investors increasing their purchases by 3.7 times, accounting for 34% of Japan's total real estate investment [5][7]. Sector Analysis - Office buildings represent 53% of the total real estate investment in Japan, with significant transactions occurring in Tokyo's central areas [4]. - Major transactions include Mitsubishi Estate's acquisition of the Akasaka Park Building and Wacoal's sale of its building in Kyoto, indicating a trend of asset sales among companies [4]. Regional Insights - The five central districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Shibuya) accounted for 56% of the investment, the highest since the first half of 2018 [5]. - The Osaka region's share of investment decreased to 10%, down from 21% the previous year, as hotel investment demand related to the Osaka Kansai Expo has subsided [5]. Future Outlook - JLL forecasts that Japan's real estate investment will approach 6 trillion yen in 2025, with financial institutions maintaining a positive stance on real estate financing [7]. - The current investment return rate for A-grade office buildings in Tokyo's central districts is between 2.0% and 2.5%, with expectations of slight increases if interest rates rise further [7].

报道称，庭审辩论将于11月举行，以最高法院的常规标准来看，这一时间表堪称"闪电速度"。在此之前这些关税 将继续有效。 此前，下级法院裁定特朗普的大部分关税政策非法，最高法院已受理特朗普政府提出的上诉。 质疑关税政策的小企业和各州也同意加速审理此案。他们表示，特朗普对全球几乎所有国家的商品征收进口税， 已将他们的企业推向破产边缘。 两家下级法院一致认为，特朗普无权援引一项紧急权力法案对全球几乎所有国家征收关税。 特朗普政府请求大法官们迅速介入，称相关法律赋予了总统监管进口的权力，而废除这些关税将使美国陷入"经济 灾难的边缘"。 报道称，最高法院一直不愿制约特朗普对行政权力的过度行使。在保守派占多数的最高法院中，有三名大法官是 特朗普在其第一任期内提名的。 截至8月底，美国的关税总收入已达1590亿美元，较去年同期增长了一倍多。 据参考消息援引美联社9月9日报道，美国最高法院9日罕见地批准迅速举行关于特朗普关税政策的听证会，审理特 朗普的这一核心经济政策的合法性。 打卡！600万！ A股，风云突变！发生了什么？ 刚刚！宁德时代，突爆大消息！ 闹大了！特朗普，最新回应！ 突发！巴菲特，重大警告！发生了什么？ 美国副 ...

Group 1 - The Boston federal judge ruled that the Trump administration's freezing of over $2 billion in federal funding to Harvard University was illegal and cannot be repeated in the future [2][3] - The Trump administration had previously imposed multiple demands on Harvard, including curbing alleged anti-Semitism and terminating diversity-related programs, which led to escalating tensions between the government and the university [3] - The White House spokesperson stated that Harvard failed to protect students from harassment and allowed discrimination to persist, asserting that the university does not have a constitutional right to taxpayer funding [3] Group 2 - Recently, a U.S. appellate court ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration were illegal, indicating a significant blow to Trump's aggressive trade policies [4] - The appellate court allowed the tariffs to remain in effect until October 14, giving the government time to appeal to the Supreme Court, while noting that this ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations [4] - Experts suggest that the composition of the Supreme Court, with several justices appointed by Trump, may favor the maintenance of his tariff policies from a national security perspective [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report indicated that businesses are reluctant to hire due to weak sales and uncertainties related to U.S. trade tensions, although tariffs have only moderately exacerbated inflation [5][6] - The JOLTS report showed a decrease of 176,000 job openings, bringing the total to 7.181 million, highlighting concerns about the labor market [6] - Some Federal Reserve officials believe that the deterioration of the labor market poses a greater economic risk, suggesting that the Fed should act preemptively to prevent rapid declines in employment [6][7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that the PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating steady consumer spending but rising inflationary pressures [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an addition of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3%, which could influence interest rate expectations and gold prices [2][5] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a "slow but solid" upward trend, with key support at 3,423 and potential resistance at 3,470-3,480 [4][6] - The technical analysis indicates that gold's upward momentum remains strong, and traders are advised to focus on buying on dips [4][7] - The core PCE inflation data has sparked discussions about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which could impact gold prices in the near term [1][2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen increased volatility, with Brent crude and WTI prices closing at $67.63 and $64.32 per barrel, respectively, influenced by various factors including demand expectations and geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is expected to confirm plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day, which may further affect oil prices [6][7] - Technical analysis suggests that Brent crude faces key support at $60 per barrel, with potential downside risks if this level is breached [6][7]

Core Points - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's global tariff policies implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are illegal, although current tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 to allow for an appeal [1][2][5] - Trump's administration expressed concerns that the ruling could jeopardize ongoing trade negotiations and provoke retaliation from other countries, particularly India, which has been subjected to a 50% tariff [1][6][10] Group 1: Legal Context - The IEEPA, enacted in 1977, grants the U.S. President significant powers to respond to national emergencies or major threats from abroad, but the court clarified that it does not explicitly authorize the imposition of tariffs [4][5] - The court's decision emphasized that the power to levy taxes, including tariffs, is constitutionally reserved for Congress, not the President [5][11] Group 2: Implications for Trade - The ruling could disrupt existing trade agreements and negotiations with key partners, as highlighted by concerns from U.S. Commerce Secretary and other officials about potential retaliatory measures from trade partners [7][10] - The decision may also impact the financial implications for the U.S. Treasury, as the government has collected approximately $159 billion in tariff revenue this year, more than double compared to the previous year [10][11] Group 3: Political Reactions - Trump criticized the ruling as politically motivated and warned that its implementation would lead to disastrous consequences for the U.S. economy [9][12] - The administration plans to appeal the decision, with expectations that the conservative majority in the Supreme Court may favor Trump's position [11][12]