英镑兑美元跌至九日低点，但兑欧元持稳，因缺乏来自英国的刺激因素。周三没有英国数据，英国股市 和债市将在新年前夕提前收盘。与此同时，美联储周二的会议纪要显示，美联储对进一步降息持谨慎态 度，这提振了美元。不过，受特朗普关税政策冲击美元的影响，英镑兑美元年内仍有望实现7%的涨 幅。 来源：滚动播报 ...

智通财经APP获悉，尽管特朗普政府的关税政策和消费者信心摇摆不定持续给美国企业带来阻力，但美 国材料类股票在2026年的盈利增速有望攀升至五年来的最高水平。行业研究数据显示，材料板块2026年 盈利预计将增长20%——该板块涵盖钢铁制造商纽柯钢铁(NUE.US)、涂料制造商宣伟公司(SHW.US)到 包装制造商Smurfit WestRock(SW.US)、鲍尔包装(BALL.US)在内的一系列公司，该板块的盈利增速预计 将仅次于科技板块。 2026年材料板块盈利增速将超过标普500指数 行业研究分析师理查德·伯克在11月的一份报告中指出，美国对钢铁进口征收的关税赋予了国内钢铁生 产商定价权。他指出："只要基于232条款的50%关税保持不变，美国钢铁生产商就应继续替代进 口。"他所指的是特朗普用来征收关税的贸易法案。 伯克补充称，纽柯钢铁在美国拥有最广泛的产品线和闲置产能。该公司在12月的一份声明中表示，受能 源、基础设施、数据中心和制造业推动，其积压订单量在进入2026年之际呈现增长趋势。该公司表示， 当前的贸易政策应能"带动经营状况持续逐步改善"。纽柯钢铁的同行Steel Dynamics(STLD.US ...

【机构分析】 转自：新华财经 •凯投宏观：英国经济状况略显改善 •中信建投：美国CPI超预期降温 继续助推有色牛市 •圣诞假期流动性稀薄或放大黄金当前涨幅 •研究显示特朗普关税政策重创德国汽车出口 •摩根大通：日本央行可能继续加息 •野村证券：触发日本当局干预的具体水平尚不确定 但大胆行动可能已为时不远 •阿根廷外国直接投资22年来首现负增长 •阿根廷PxQ咨询公司近日发布报告说，2025年阿根廷外国直接投资22年来首次出现负增长。报告说， 基于阿根廷央行近日发布的信息测算，2025年1月至11月期间，阿根廷外国直接投资为负15.2亿美元， 为2003年以来首次出现负增长。外国直接投资出现负增长的主要原因是大量跨国企业退出阿根廷市场或 将在阿业务出售给当地企业。据悉，有阿根廷央行人士确认，外国直接投资负增长是由于跨国企业出售 当地业务所致。2023年12月以来，已有数十家跨国企业由于全球战略调整或对阿根廷宏观经济缺乏信心 而撤离该国。近两年来，阿根廷通胀居高不下，本币汇率剧烈波动，削弱了企业的盈利预期和投资意 愿。 编辑：马萌伟 •凯投宏观经济学家Alex Kerr指出，尽管数据显示英国第三季度GDP仅环比增 ...

The U.S. job market is sluggish and confusing this fall. The Labor Department is expected to provide at least a little clarity when it releases November numbers on hiring and unemployment Tuesday, 11 days late. "We're in Lehigh Valley, which is a big transportation hub in eastern Pennsylvania. We've seen some cooling in the logistics and transportation markets, specifically because we've seen automation in those sectors, robotics.†Forecasters surveyed by the data firm FactSet expect that employers added a ...

智通财经APP获悉，在全球运动产品巨头耐克公司(NKE.US)将于美东时间周四美股盘后公布第二财季 财报之前，市场乐观情绪相当浓厚，华尔街看到的不只是些许"绿芽"。华尔街分析师们对耐克2026财年 第二财季的财报及其后续业绩前景的看法相对积极，初步迹象显示，消费者对新品发布的接受度良好， 批发业务动能也在回归强势。尽管其中国业务似乎仍需更多努力，但更干净的库存状况与北美市场动能 可能会抵消大部分疲弱。 来自Williams Trading的分析师Sam Poser在周五表示，"积极拐点正在当前这个阶段出现"，并预计这一 趋势将在2026年日历年加速。Poser称，第二财季的业绩和第三财季业绩指引"很可能会超过市场一致预 期"。 乔丹(Jordan)系列热度炸裂 "Jordan品牌和耐克跑步鞋类业务正在积累增长动能。零售商们普遍报告称产品供给持续改善，"该分析 师表示，并指出全球批发业务营收增长以及相应的售罄率"在大中华区以外正在积累动能，并将继续如 此"。他预计直到2027财年，耐克旗下的直面消费者(DTC)业务销售额才会改善。 Poser认为，随着新品的增长动能增强，北美市场的销售趋势将会比其他市场更好。这 ...

中信证券研报称，虽然特朗普关税税率名义上对外较高，但实质上部分商品关税存在豁免或税率下调， 并且基于特朗普表态，后续美国有效关税税率还存在进一步下降的可能性。整体而言，在美国经济下行 压力增大、特朗普关税政策实质性下调的背景下，关税对于美国通胀的压力或有限，后续美国通胀压力 或较为可控。 ...

中美谈判已经结束，双方达成了协议，暂时停止了关税问题，达成了为期一年的休战。然而，美国的一 些州却觉得这还不够，认为特朗普并没有和中国完全达成协议，贸易依然不稳定，因此他们决定绕开特 朗普，直接与中国进行谈判。 在10月举行的中美谈判中，双方达成了一项共识：将原本计划实施的关税延期一年。美国承诺会降低芬 太尼的关税，并暂停一系列制裁措施，而中国则同意增加对美国农产品的采购，并暂停部分反制措施。 报道指出，华盛顿州是美国最大的出口市场之一，而俄勒冈州则是中国的第二大出口市场。对于这两个 州来说，失去中国市场的代价实在太大，他们无法承受与中国发生贸易冲突的风险。 判越权，他也不会轻易放弃已经达成的贸易协议，因此他会保留301调查作为继续施压的手段。 美国各 州很清楚特朗普的手段，因此决定通过地方代表团与中国建立更紧密的联系，表达他们希望与中国保持 良好关系的意图。早在特朗普提出对等关税政策时，加州州长纽森就公开表示，加州可以单独与中国进 行谈判。加州的经济实力强大，单是加州就为美国贡献了4万亿美元的GDP。加州州长与特朗普在政策 上意见分歧，并且公开与特朗普政府保持距离，声称特朗普的政策与加州无关。 总体来说，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot is expected to report a year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 2.5% for Q3 of FY2026, reaching $41.2 billion, which is a slowdown compared to the previous year's growth of 6.6% [1] Financial Performance - Analysts anticipate adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.84, up from $3.67 in the same quarter last year [1] - In the previous quarter, Home Depot reported total revenue of approximately $45.28 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, but fell short of EBITDA expectations [1] - Over the past two years, Home Depot has only missed revenue and adjusted EPS expectations once, with an average revenue beat of about 0.9% [1] Market Context - Competitors in the home improvement sector, such as Floor And Decor and Arhaus, reported revenue growths of 5.5% and 8% respectively, providing insights into market expectations [3] - The home improvement sector has seen an average stock price decline of 6.9% over the past month, with Home Depot's stock down 6.8% during the same period [3] Demand Dynamics - The DIY market is slowing down, but demand from professional customers remains stable, which helps mitigate the impact of declining consumer renovation demand [4] - Home Depot has reiterated its sales growth guidance for FY2025 at approximately 2.8%, with comparable store sales growth of about 1%, which is lower than analysts' expectations [4] Cost Pressures - The company acknowledges rising costs due to tariffs but plans to manage these through selective price increases or promotions [5] - High mortgage rates and low inventory of existing homes are causing delays in large renovation projects, negatively impacting demand for significant DIY and renovation projects [6]

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot (HD.US), the largest home improvement retailer globally, is expected to report a Q3 revenue growth of approximately 2.5% year-over-year, reaching $41.2 billion, which is a slowdown from the previous year's 6.6% growth due to high mortgage rates and tariff pressures [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts anticipate adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.84 for Q3, compared to $3.67 in the same period last year [1] - In the previous quarter, Home Depot reported total revenue of approximately $45.28 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, but fell short of EBITDA expectations [1] - Over the past two years, Home Depot has only missed revenue and adjusted EPS expectations once, with an average revenue beat of about 0.9% [1] Group 2: Market Context and Competitor Performance - Competitors in the home improvement sector, such as Floor And Decor and Arhaus, reported Q3 revenue growths of approximately 5.5% and 8% respectively, providing insights into market expectations [3] - The home improvement sector has seen an average stock price decline of 6.9% over the past month, with Home Depot's stock down 6.8% during the same period [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The DIY market is slowing down, but demand from professional contractors remains robust, which may help mitigate the impact of declining consumer renovation demand [4] - Home Depot has reiterated its sales growth guidance for FY2025 at approximately 2.8%, with comparable store sales growth of about 1%, which is lower than analysts' expectations by 1.4% [4] Group 4: Cost Pressures and Strategic Responses - The company acknowledges rising costs due to tariffs but will not implement widespread price increases across the U.S., opting for selective price adjustments instead [5] - High mortgage rates and low inventory of existing homes are causing delays in large renovation projects, negatively impacting demand for significant DIY and renovation projects [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a two-week high of $4141.15 per ounce, with a significant increase of 2.85% on Monday, marking the highest closing price since October 23 [1] - Silver also saw a notable increase, rising over 4% to its highest level since October 21, driven by weak U.S. economic data and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is flattening, with short-term yields rising faster than long-term yields, reflecting investor concerns about rising inflation expectations and the potential pause in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [4] - Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including a significant drop in October job openings and a decline in consumer confidence, has reinforced market expectations for a dovish stance from the Fed, with a 64% probability of a rate cut in December [4] - The internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding further rate cuts has intensified, with differing views among officials, which adds uncertainty to the policy path and supports gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices broke through the short-term resistance level of $4030, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend, with a focus on the $4150 resistance level [9] - Short-term trading strategies suggest entering long positions around $4106 and $4086, with stop-loss orders set at $10 below the entry point and targets set at $4150 and $4180 [8] - The market is currently observing strong bullish sentiment, with prices hovering around $4130, indicating a potential for further upward movement [9] Market Dynamics - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has lasted for 41 days, has created significant economic pressure, but recent developments suggest a potential resolution, which may still leave lingering economic impacts that support gold's safe-haven demand [7] - Trade uncertainties, particularly related to Trump's tariff policies and a decline in container imports from China, have further amplified economic risks, contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]