Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a shift in focus towards employment support, suggesting potential interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown risks [1][4][9] - The market reacted positively to Powell's speech, with major U.S. stock indices rising significantly, reflecting increased expectations for a rate cut in September [6][9][14] - Powell emphasized that the Fed's decisions would be data-driven, highlighting the importance of monitoring employment and inflation data [1][12][14] Group 2 - Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve has intensified, with public criticisms aimed at Powell's rate decisions and calls for immediate rate cuts [2][5][9] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies has been identified as a key variable affecting the Fed's decision-making process, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates [4][7][9] - The Fed's cautious stance reflects a balancing act between inflation control and economic growth, with internal divisions among Fed officials regarding the timing of potential rate cuts [4][9][12]

2025 年 08 月 20 日 对等关税 2.0 后，行业关税或将成关键新变量 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040006 已达成贸易协定：阶段性框架协定为主，实质内容不多 1. 特朗普政府在贸易谈判上取得了一定成果。截至 8 月 18 日，特朗普政府与英 国、欧盟、日本、韩国等国家和地区达成了贸易协定，这些国家和地区占 2024 年美国商品总进口的比例为 38.6%，占美国 2024 年商品逆差的 49.8%（不含英 国）。但除了英国与美国达成的贸易协定相对具体外，其他国家的贸易协定更像 是一个临时性质的框架协定，缺乏具体的内容安排。且无论美国对贸易伙伴是顺 差/逆差，美国都是单方面征收关税，所有协定均存在明显的关税税率不对等。 2. 美英贸易协定：10%普征关税叠加行业出口配额。美英双方于 5 月 8 日达成 美英经济繁荣协议一般条款（EPD）：一是部分行业关税税率的相互降低，但设 定了不同程度的限额；二是非关税壁垒的放宽，主要涉及市场准入标准以及共同 监管问题；三是增加 ...

2025年08月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com CONTENTS 01 02 03 05 06 04 铜：基本面边际改善，但宏观存不确定性，价格震荡 铝：继续收敛，低波仍在，传统旺季前的累库或不足为惧 氧化铝：周中因山西矿消息大涨，但实际影响有限，平台位置仍有支撑 铸造铝合金：新增订单有限，淡季压力逐渐显现 锌：冶炼生产积极性较高，开工保持高位 铅：供应减少逻辑发酵，支撑价格 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 07 铜产业链周度报告 国泰 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the oil market is the conflict between OPEC's efforts to manage demand expectations to maintain price floors and the demand collapse risk triggered by tariff policies [3] - India's oil consumption has decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first seven months of the year, reflecting the impact of U.S. punitive tariffs [2][3] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 to an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day, up from the previous estimate of 1.28 million barrels per day, driven by stronger economic activity in key regions [2] Group 2 - The geopolitical variable of the U.S.-Russia meeting could potentially lead to a loosening of sanctions, with a probability of 58% for the lifting of oil sanctions if a ceasefire agreement is reached [4] - OPEC's strategy to raise demand forecasts serves as a "demand anchoring" tactic to counter potential supply increases from geopolitical developments [4] - The current oil price volatility has decreased to 18.5%, indicating a market shift towards a "wait-and-see" balance amid ongoing tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are currently weak, but there is still macro risk sentiment, leading to price fluctuations. The price is expected to range between 77,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3]. - Global copper inventories have increased significantly on the margin, and the macro situation is uncertain but not yet negative. Unilateral operations should be cautious, while long-term inventory depletion logic favors forward contract term positive spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading End - Volatility: Volatility in SHFE copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has all declined, with COMEX copper price volatility dropping to around 60% [10]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has widened. The COMEX copper C structure has narrowed [12][15]. - Position: Positions in SHFE copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper have all decreased, with SHFE copper positions decreasing by 18,600 lots to 464,000 lots [16]. - Capital and Industry Positions: The net long position of CFTC non-commercial traders has decreased, and the net short position of LME commercial traders has increased [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has declined [26]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories have increased, with a significant increase in LME inventories. Domestic social inventories have increased, bonded area inventories have decreased, and COMEX inventories have increased [29][32]. - Position-Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position-inventory ratio has declined, weakening the logic of spot tightness [33]. 2. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Copper concentrate imports have increased year-on-year, port inventories have increased, and processing fees have marginally rebounded, but smelters are still in a loss-making state [36][38]. - Recycled Copper: Recycled copper imports have increased year-on-year, while domestic production has decreased significantly. The scrap-to-refined spread is weak, and import losses have widened [39][44]. - Blister Copper: Blister copper imports have increased, and processing fees are at a low level [49]. - Refined Copper: Domestic refined copper production has increased more than expected, imports have increased, and spot import losses have widened [52][53]. 3. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened in July on a month-on-month basis. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises rebounded in the week of August 7th [56]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have weakened [59][62]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level [63]. - Finished Product Inventory: Copper rod finished product inventories have declined, and wire and cable finished product inventories have decreased [66]. 4. Consumption End - Consumption: Apparent copper consumption is good, and grid investment is an important support. Grid investment has accelerated, and the air conditioning output growth rate has rebounded. New energy vehicle production is at a high level compared to the same period in history [71][73].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the expansion of tariffs by Trump, which will not apply to goods shipped to the U.S. before a specific deadline, indicating a strategic approach to trade negotiations [2][3] - The new tariffs are expected to raise the average tariff rate in the U.S. to 15.2%, up from 13.3%, and significantly higher than the 2.3% rate before Trump's presidency [3] - The tariffs are part of Trump's broader strategy to reduce trade deficits and encourage domestic manufacturing, with ongoing negotiations with countries like Switzerland and India to potentially lower these tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Trump is expected to announce separate tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals in the coming weeks, creating ongoing uncertainty for businesses and investors [4] - The economic impact of the tariffs is becoming clearer, with key economic indicators showing deterioration, leading to concerns about rising costs for consumers and businesses, and potential inflation [5][6] - Manufacturing jobs have decreased by 37,000 since April, highlighting the negative impact of tariffs on raw material costs for U.S. factories [6] Group 3 - The recent economic data suggests that while GDP growth appears to accelerate, it is largely due to fluctuations in imports caused by tariffs, masking underlying slowdowns in business investment and consumer spending [5][6] - The political narrative around the tariffs is shifting towards a "data war," as the administration faces scrutiny over the accuracy and reliability of economic statistics [7][9] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to respond to economic slowdowns potentially exacerbated by tariffs, raising questions about the politicization of economic data collection [8][9]

Group 1 - The core issue for a regime is fundamentally about "where the money comes from and where it intends to spend" [1] - The main sources of revenue for the U.S. federal government include individual income tax, payroll taxes, and corporate income tax [2][6][8] - Individual income tax accounts for approximately 45% of federal revenue and has remained stable since the 1980s [2] - Payroll taxes, which support social security and Medicare, contribute about 35% to federal revenue [6] - Corporate income tax is the third largest source, making up around 10% of federal revenue [8] Group 2 - Tariff revenue has surged since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," reaching $26.6 billion in June, four times the average level of previous years [13] - As of June 30, tariff revenues from reciprocal tariffs (10%) and auto tariffs (25%) generated over $17.7 billion and $10.7 billion, respectively [14] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 20.6%, the highest since 1910 [15] - Monthly tariff revenue could potentially rise to between $30 billion and $40 billion with the full implementation of higher tariffs [16] - Tariff revenue may approach $400 billion annually, nearing the total amount of corporate income tax [17] Group 3 - Trump's tax structure is unique, as it relies more on tariffs compared to traditional models where developed countries typically do not emphasize tariff revenue [20][21] - The World Bank data shows that as of 2023, tariffs account for 2.8% of U.S. tax revenue, compared to lower percentages in other developed countries [21] - The article suggests that tariff revenue could reach 6.8% of total tax revenue, with a possibility of being in the 8% to 10% range based on current trends [23] Group 4 - If tariffs become a stable source of revenue, it may be difficult for future administrations to reduce or eliminate them, as they could become entrenched in the fiscal structure [25][26] - The political implications of removing tariffs could lead to significant backlash from industries that benefit from them, making it a contentious issue in future elections [28][29] Group 5 - The article discusses the winners and losers of Trump's tariff policies, noting that few countries outside the U.S. have benefited from the tariff situation [35] - Countries like Vietnam and Taiwan are particularly affected, with Vietnam facing a significant reduction in its export competitiveness due to high tariffs [41][42] - Japan and South Korea are also deeply impacted, with Japan seeking to reduce its reliance on the U.S. market as a response to tariff pressures [44][46]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the U.S. non-farm payroll report for July raises concerns about the current state of the labor market, prompting speculation about potential actions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September [2][5]. Employment Growth - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly below the market expectation of 115,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting a decrease in household employment volatility [2]. - Job growth was primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added 55,000 positions, while federal government employment decreased by 12,000 [2]. Data Revisions - Previous months' data were significantly revised downwards, with June's job additions revised down by 133,000 to just 14,000, marking a near five-year low [3]. - May's job additions were also revised down by 125,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the two months [3]. - The average monthly job growth from May to July fell to approximately 35,000, the slowest pace since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [3]. Labor Market Dynamics - The number of job openings in June dropped from 7.7 million to 7.4 million, the lowest level in a year [4]. - Despite the decline in job openings, layoffs remain at historically low levels, with a layoff rate of 1%, below the average of 1.4% from 2010 to 2019 [4]. - The current labor market situation is characterized as "no extra hiring, lukewarm" by analysts [4]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to stabilize long-term inflation expectations [4][5]. - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose by 0.3% in the previous month, with the year-on-year growth increasing from 2.4% to 2.6% [4]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may consider rate cuts if labor market weakness persists, similar to the previous year when a key recession indicator was triggered [5][6]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts have increased, with an 82% probability of a rate cut in September according to futures pricing [6]. - Wells Fargo anticipates consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, reflecting a shift towards a more neutral monetary policy stance [6].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the U.S. non-farm payroll report for July raises concerns about the labor market, prompting speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [3][5][6]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm payroll increased by only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 115,000 [3]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, with job growth primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added 55,000 positions [3]. - Job data for the previous two months was revised downwards, with June's jobs cut by 133,000 to 14,000, marking a near five-year low [4]. - The average monthly job growth from May to July dropped to approximately 35,000, the slowest pace since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. Economic Implications - The U.S. economy requires the creation of about 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population [4]. - Job openings fell from 7.7 million in June to 7.4 million, the lowest level in a year and the second-lowest since the pandemic began [4]. - Despite the decline in job openings, layoffs remain at historical lows, with a layoff rate of 1%, significantly lower than the average of 1.4% from 2010 to 2019 [4]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to stabilize long-term inflation expectations [5]. - The preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose by 0.3% in the previous month, the largest increase since February, with the year-on-year growth rate climbing from 2.4% to 2.6% [5]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased, with an 82% probability priced in for the first cut [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the labor market continues to show signs of weakness, the Federal Reserve may opt for preemptive rate cuts, similar to the actions taken last year [6][8]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be crucial in confirming or alleviating concerns regarding the current employment data's weakness [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in President Trump's approval ratings, highlighting concerns among the American public regarding his handling of economic and immigration policies [1][5]. Group 1: Approval Ratings - A recent poll indicates that Trump's approval rating has dropped to 40%, marking a new low during his second term [1]. - The poll, conducted over three days, surveyed 1,023 adults across the U.S. with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points [2]. - Trump's approval ratings show significant polarization, with 83% of Republicans approving of his performance, compared to only 3% of Democrats [2]. Group 2: Economic Policy - Approximately 38% of respondents approve of Trump's economic management, an increase from 35% in a previous poll [3]. - Trump's aggressive tariff policies aim to reduce trade deficits and promote manufacturing in the U.S., but have introduced considerable uncertainty into the economy [3]. - In April, Trump signed executive orders establishing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, later extending a negotiation period for higher tariffs [3]. Group 3: Immigration Policy - Trump's administration has implemented strict immigration policies, which have sparked controversy and raised concerns about potential impacts on the labor market [4]. - About 43% of respondents support Trump's immigration policies, a slight increase from 41% in earlier polling [3]. Group 4: Overall Approval Trend - Since January, Trump's overall approval rating has decreased by approximately 12 percentage points, from 56% to 44% [5].