中美谈判已经结束，双方达成了协议，暂时停止了关税问题，达成了为期一年的休战。然而，美国的一 些州却觉得这还不够，认为特朗普并没有和中国完全达成协议，贸易依然不稳定，因此他们决定绕开特 朗普，直接与中国进行谈判。 在10月举行的中美谈判中，双方达成了一项共识：将原本计划实施的关税延期一年。美国承诺会降低芬 太尼的关税，并暂停一系列制裁措施，而中国则同意增加对美国农产品的采购，并暂停部分反制措施。 报道指出，华盛顿州是美国最大的出口市场之一，而俄勒冈州则是中国的第二大出口市场。对于这两个 州来说，失去中国市场的代价实在太大，他们无法承受与中国发生贸易冲突的风险。 判越权，他也不会轻易放弃已经达成的贸易协议，因此他会保留301调查作为继续施压的手段。 美国各 州很清楚特朗普的手段，因此决定通过地方代表团与中国建立更紧密的联系，表达他们希望与中国保持 良好关系的意图。早在特朗普提出对等关税政策时，加州州长纽森就公开表示，加州可以单独与中国进 行谈判。加州的经济实力强大，单是加州就为美国贡献了4万亿美元的GDP。加州州长与特朗普在政策 上意见分歧，并且公开与特朗普政府保持距离，声称特朗普的政策与加州无关。 总体来说，美 ...

智通财经APP获悉，全球最大规模家居建材零售商家得宝(HD.US)将在本周二美股市场开盘前公布截至10月份的2026财年第三财季业 绩报告。华尔街分析师们的普遍预期显示，预计家得宝Q3总营收将实现同比增长约2.5%，达到412亿美元，意味着增幅在高抵押贷款 利率以及特朗普关税压力持续影响之下，将较去年同期6.6%的同比增幅有所放缓，分析师们普遍预计调整后的每股收益为3.84美元， 相比之下上年同期的调整后每股收益为3.67美元。 家得宝公司在Q2财报的业绩展望环节中重申2025财年的销售增长指引约为2.8%，可比门店销售增长约1%——该项业绩展望意外低 于分析师的预期1.4%。因此在Q3业绩预期以及业绩展望已被特朗普关税带来的需求端压力而被严重压低的背景下，如果公司实际表 现超过这些指标，则可能带来投资者信心的提升。 观察家得宝在家居装饰和轻装潢零售领域的重要同行，部分家居零售型的中小型公司已经公布了第三季度的业绩，给华尔街分析师们 提供了重要的预期线索。 比如Floor And Decor报告了同比营收增长幅度约5.5%的营收增幅，符合分析师的普遍预期，而Arhaus报告的营收则实现增长8%，超 出预期约2 ...

全球最大规模家居建材零售商家得宝(HD.US)将在本周二美股市场开盘前公布截至10月份的2026财年第三财季业绩报告。华尔街分析 师们的普遍预期显示，预计家得宝Q3总营收将实现同比增长约2.5%，达到412亿美元，意味着增幅在高抵押贷款利率以及特朗普关税 压力持续影响之下，将较去年同期6.6%的同比增幅有所放缓，分析师们普遍预计调整后的每股收益为3.84美元，相比之下上年同期的 调整后每股收益为3.67美元。 在上个财报季度，家得宝实现并小幅超越了分析师们普遍预期的业绩数据，报告总营收约为452.8亿美元，同比增长4.9%。但是上一 季度公司整体经营表现稍显疲软，调整之后的EBITDA(税息折旧及摊销前利润)则未能达到分析师普遍预期，而调整后每股收益(EPS) 则与分析师预普遍期一致。 覆盖这一家居建材零售巨头的华尔街分析师们在过去30天内普遍重申了他们的业绩预期，这表明他们预计这家零售商将维持当前的小 幅利润扩张的经营状态。过去两年中，家得宝仅有一次营收与调整后每股收益这两大核心指标未达到华尔街的收入预期，平均超出营 收预期程度约0.9%。 观察家得宝在家居装饰和轻装潢零售领域的重要同行，部分家居零售型的中 ...

基本面： 此外，美国历史上最长的政府停摆已持续41天，给经济带来巨大压力：联邦雇员无薪休假、食品援助中断、航班大面积取消，甚至特朗普总统亲自敦促航空 管制员复工，并威胁削减薪酬，同时承诺向坚持岗位者发放1万美元奖金。然而，好消息终于来临——美国参议院周日推进了一项折中议案，旨在重新开放 联邦政府并结束停摆，该议案已初步扫清障碍，虽需众议院批准并经特朗普签署，但本周结束停摆的概率在博彩网站Polymarket上已高达88%。尽管风险情 绪回暖，黄金并未随之回落，反而借势上涨。这是因为停摆虽有望结束，但其遗留的经济创伤仍强化了降息预期。投资者对政府关门很快结束表示乐观，但 这种趋势终将减弱，届时劳动力市场和通胀数据将成为焦点，而黄金在不确定性中的避险角色将更加凸显。 本周交易者将重点关注有关美国政府停摆事件更多进展及潜在一系列缺失数据的公布，另外留意美联储官员讲话 技术面： 周二（11月11日）亚盘时段，现货黄金延续走高并录得4141.15美元/盎司高位刷新两周高点，目前暂交投于4135美元附近。周一现货黄金大涨2.85%，收报 4115美元附近，这是自10月23日以来的最高收盘价。现货白银更是不甘示弱，涨幅超过 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has a direct correlation with global capital market performance. The current market dynamics are characterized by a unified beta phenomenon across global markets, closely tied to the Fed's policy stance [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The global capital markets have shown strong performance in 2025, particularly in South Korea, where the index rose by 71.18% until October. This surge is attributed to the Fed's loose monetary policy and the AI industry's growth. However, a cooling trend has been observed since October, indicating potential risks [2][4]. - **AI Industry Impact**: AI is recognized as a key driver of the fourth industrial revolution, significantly affecting traditional industries. The demand for AI chips has led to increased prices for consumer electronics chips, and rising electricity demand in the U.S. has escalated manufacturing costs, potentially leading to stagflation [1][8]. - **Liquidity and Asset Prices**: Recent fluctuations in asset prices, including cryptocurrencies and precious metals, are driven by changes in liquidity. Prior to October 2025, liquidity expansion supported asset price increases, but a shift to a stock game has resulted in volatility [6][7]. - **U.S. Stock Market Risks**: The U.S. stock market, particularly in relation to AI, is facing significant risks. The rapid expansion of AI has led to concerns about a potential bubble, especially if liquidity fails to support both emerging and traditional industries [8][11]. - **Federal Reserve's Role**: The Fed's monetary policy is crucial in determining market stability. If inflation remains high and employment data does not deteriorate significantly, the Fed may tighten policies, which could burst the stock market bubble [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Cross-Border Capital Flows**: The relationship between U.S. equities and non-U.S. equity assets is influenced by the dollar's depreciation. Even without significant dollar depreciation in 2025, non-U.S. equity assets have performed well, indicating a potential shift in capital flows [5]. - **Historical Context**: The historical context of market performance post-QE3 and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy illustrates the cyclical nature of market reactions to Fed policies [4][10]. - **Political Factors**: The upcoming U.S. midterm elections may influence economic policies and market performance, with potential implications for the Fed's approach to monetary policy [16][17]. - **China's Economic Outlook**: Factors affecting China's effective exchange rate include total factor productivity, private sector leverage, and PPI fluctuations. A potential recovery in productivity could lead to an appreciation of the yuan and a rise in the CSI 300 index [14][15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of monetary policy, market dynamics, and geopolitical factors.

关税大战迎来终极审判，懂王特朗普引以为傲的关税政策或面临终结。 美国高院的裁决，将决定特朗普关税的命运，如果法院作出对特朗普不利的裁决，可能会使其标志性的关税政策被推翻，并可能引发超千亿美元的关税退 款。 特朗普关税，前途未卜？ 当地时间周三，美国最高法院内气氛凝重，事关全球经贸前景的"特朗普关税案"正式开庭审理。 在超过两个半小时的庭审中，大法官们轮番发问，多数大法官对特朗普政府的关税措施感到疑虑，并对关税合法性提出质疑。 其中，美国高院首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨在庭审中表示，这些关税是对美国人征税，而征税历来是国会的核心权力。他还表示，联邦机构在采取具有深远经 济或政治影响的行动时，需要国会的明确授权。 大法官戈萨奇和巴雷特亦表示质疑，如果美国高院裁定《国际紧急经济权力法》赋予总统征收广泛关税的权力，那美国国会是否还能通过投票撤回关税。 值得注意的是，此前美国参议院以51票赞同、47票反对的结果通过决议，终止美国总统特朗普在全球范围内实施的全面关税政策。 特朗普此前不断强调，如果美国没有关税，就没有国家安全，而世界其他国家会占美国的便宜。然而，这场被特朗普称为"有史以来最重要的案件"，正朝着 不利于他的方向发 ...

SHMET 网讯：据彭博报道，就在美国最高法院就特朗普的全球关税政策展开激烈交锋的前一天，又一起质疑其贸易政策的诉讼被提交至法院。 这个时间点非同寻常，因为在最高法院裁决之前，地方法官不太可能采取任何行动。但本案律师表示，他现在提起诉讼并主张将其作为集体诉讼有其理 由：若政府在本案中败诉，将有助于更多企业追讨特朗普根据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收的高额关税。 韦基奥内提起的关税诉讼至少是过去一周内的第二起，而最高法院将于周三审理数月前提交的三个相关案件。另一项代表多家企业的诉讼也于10月30日 在美国国际贸易法院提起。该案首席律师戴维·克雷文（David Craven）表示，其客户提起诉讼是作为预防措施。 克雷文指出，若最高法院推翻关税政策但将具体补救措施交由下级法院裁定，该诉讼将使其客户有机会尝试"排到退款队伍的最前面"。"特朗普政府已 明确表示不愿退还这笔钱，因此我们正在确保做好万全准备，"他说。 美国法院已受理十余起质疑特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》发布关税行政令的诉讼。在等待最高法院最终裁决期间，多数案件已被下级法院法官暂 缓审理。 "我们要确保所有依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收的关税彻底失效，覆盖所 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Trump, with hundreds of small businesses affected by these tariffs opposing them [1][2] - The outcome of the case could impact trillions of dollars in trade and potentially lead to over $100 billion in tax refunds if the court rules against Trump [2][6] - The tariffs, justified by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are claimed to address national security and economic emergencies [2][6] Group 1: Impact on Small Businesses - Rick Woldenberg, a toy manufacturer, has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, claiming the tariffs have cost his companies an additional $20-30 million this year compared to $2.3 million last year [1][2] - The lawsuit represents a significant economic conflict, with Woldenberg's experience highlighting the struggles of small businesses that lack the flexibility of larger corporations to absorb tariff costs [5][6] - Many small businesses have formed a coalition called "We Pay the Tariffs" to express their opposition to the tariffs, while larger companies like Walmart and General Motors have not pursued legal action [5][6] Group 2: Legal and Economic Implications - Legal fees for Woldenberg's case have reached millions, but he views them as necessary to challenge the tariffs [6] - Experts suggest that small businesses have a chance of winning the case, as the IEEPA may not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval [6] - If the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, the Trump administration has indicated it would seek alternative legal avenues to continue imposing tariffs [6][7]

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of Trump's global tariffs, which are expected to persist regardless of legal authorization [1][2] - Lower courts have ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [2] - The outcome of the Supreme Court's decision could significantly impact Trump's ability to impose tariffs as a means of punishing countries over non-trade political issues [2] Group 1: Tariff Legislation and Authority - The Supreme Court consists of six conservative and three liberal justices, and has previously supported Trump in major rulings [2] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, he may resort to other legal frameworks for imposing tariffs, such as the Trade Act of 1974 and the Tariff Act of 1930 [3] - Trump's administration views tariffs as a cornerstone of economic policy, and businesses should plan accordingly [3] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Agreements - Trump's tariff policies have reportedly led to significant concessions from major trading partners like Japan and the EU, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit [4] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office has announced final framework trade agreements with Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, locking in tariff rates between 19% and 20% [4] - South Korea has agreed to a $350 billion investment plan in exchange for tariff reductions on automobiles and other goods [4] Group 3: Financial Implications and Revenue - As of September 7, the total import tariffs collected under IEEPA reached $89 billion, contributing to a net customs revenue increase of $118 billion for the fiscal year ending September 30 [8] - The reliance on tariff revenue poses significant political and economic risks, complicating future tariff reductions for any administration [8] - The potential need to refund over $100 billion in tariff revenue could create challenges for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection [8] Group 4: Inflation and Cost Management - Importers have largely absorbed the costs of tariffs, which has limited consumer price increases but has also reduced profit margins [9] - The Oxford Economics Institute estimates that tariffs have increased the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate by 0.4 percentage points, pushing inflation above the Federal Reserve's target [9] - Companies are facing significant cost impacts, with over $35 billion in tariff-related costs disclosed ahead of the third-quarter earnings season [9]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is seen as a critical test of Trump's economic policies, which could reshape U.S. trade dynamics and have significant implications for the global economy [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Perspectives - Nearly 50 economists, including former Federal Reserve Chairs Bernanke and Yellen, have urged the Supreme Court to overturn the tariffs, arguing that they are based on a fundamental misunderstanding of global economics [4]. - The economists contend that trade deficits are a result of macroeconomic imbalances rather than a security threat, and that tariffs have led to increased costs for American households, raising annual expenses by $2,400 [4][5]. - The potential ruling could require the U.S. government to refund between $750 billion to $1 trillion in tariffs, which would have catastrophic effects on the Treasury and could undermine existing trade agreements [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially dropping below $4,070 before rising above $4,110, only to decline again [1]. - The CPI data for September showed a year-over-year increase of 3%, which was below expectations, and core inflation rose by only 0.2%, the slowest growth in three months [6][7]. - The release of the CPI data has cleared the way for anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by previous comments from Fed Chair Powell [7]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Despite a historic drop in gold prices, gold funds saw record inflows, attracting $8.7 billion in a week, with total inflows over the past four months reaching $50 billion, surpassing the cumulative inflows of the previous 14 years [10][13]. - In the context of broader market trends, stock funds are projected to attract $693 billion, cash funds $1.1 trillion, and gold funds $108 billion in inflows, marking significant historical records [13][14]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has become a central factor in market volatility, challenging investors' asset allocation strategies [14].