Stubborn inflation and skyrocketing home prices are causing uncertainty in the residential property market. These factors also make it challenging for consumers to sustain their discretionary spending. With that, household durable and home improvement products and servicesI have been working in the logistics sector for almost two decades. I have been into stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade. Currently, I focus on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ Stocks, particularly in banks, telco, logistic ...

Earnings Reports - This week features earnings reports from major companies including Nvidia (NVDA), Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Lowes (LOW), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Medtronic (MDT), and PDD Holdings (PDD) [1] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings announcements due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases back to normal levels [3] Expected Price Movements - The expected price range for stocks can be estimated by summing the prices of at-the-money put and call options, using the first expiry date after the earnings date [3] - Specific expected price movements for the week include: - TCOM – 6.2% - HD – 4.4% - PDD – 6.7% - MDT – 3.8% - BIDU – 7.8% - NVDA – 7.7% - PANW – 7.6% - LOW – 5.1% - TGT – 9.9% - WMT – 5.1% [4] Trading Strategies - Option traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades, with bearish traders selling bear call spreads and bullish traders selling bull put spreads or looking at naked puts [5] - Neutral traders may consider iron condors, ensuring short strikes remain outside the expected range [5] - It is advisable to use risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings [6] High Implied Volatility Stocks - A stock screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, using filters such as total call volume greater than 5,000, market cap greater than 40 billion, and IV rank greater than 50% [7]

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Core Insights - Analysts forecast Lowe's (LOW) will report quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [1] - Expected revenues are projected to be $20.86 billion, indicating a 3.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.1% over the past 30 days, showing analysts have reappraised their initial projections [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical research indicating a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics - Analysts estimate the total number of stores will reach 1,755, up from 1,747 in the same quarter last year [5] - The estimated total sales floor square footage is projected at 195.65 million, compared to 195.00 million in the same quarter last year [5] - Sales per store are expected to be $11.97 million, an increase from $11.55 million year-over-year [6] - The average store size selling square feet is estimated to be 111.72 thousand, slightly down from 112.00 thousand in the previous year [6] Stock Performance - Lowe's shares have decreased by 4.8% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 1.4% [6] - With a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), Lowe's is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [6]

Core Insights - Lowe's Companies, Inc. is set to announce its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on November 19, with revenue expectations at $20.9 billion, reflecting a 3.4% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $2.98, indicating a 3.1% increase from the previous year [1][9] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lowe's revenues stands at $20.9 billion, implying a 3.4% growth from the prior year [1][9] - The consensus mark for earnings has decreased slightly to $2.98 per share, still suggesting a 3.1% increase from the year-ago period [1][9] - Lowe's has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.9%, with the last reported quarter outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.4% [2] Group 2: Key Growth Drivers - Lowe's third-quarter performance is expected to benefit from its Pro-focused initiatives and the execution of its "Total Home" strategy, with strategic investments in expanding its Pro customer base yielding positive results [3] - Enhanced product assortments, improved in-stock positions, and better service capabilities through loyalty programs and job-site delivery enhancements are likely to support higher transaction volumes [3] - Digital execution remains a significant driver, with investments in technology improving customer experience and operational efficiency, particularly among Pro customers [4] Group 3: Financial Health and Challenges - Lowe's ongoing Perpetual Productivity Improvement initiatives may have contributed to margin enhancement, alongside robust cash generation and prudent capital allocation [5] - However, the company may face challenges from macroeconomic pressures, including higher interest rates and subdued housing turnover, which could temper discretionary spending in the home improvement market [6] - The company's Zacks Rank is 4 (Sell) with an Earnings ESP of -2.23%, indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Lowe's (LOW) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended October 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Lowe's is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +3.1% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $20.9 billion, which is a 3.6% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.29% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Lowe's is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.23% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with significant predictive power for positive readings only [9][10]. - Lowe's current Zacks Rank is 3 (Hold), making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Lowe's exceeded the expected earnings of $4.23 per share by delivering $4.33, resulting in a surprise of +2.36% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Lowe's has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times [14]. Industry Comparison - Home Depot (HD), a competitor in the retail home furnishings industry, is expected to report earnings of $3.82 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +1.1% [18]. - Home Depot's revenue is anticipated to be $41.08 billion, up 2.2% from the previous year [18].

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's Companies, Inc. will hold its Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call on November 19, 2025, at 9 a.m. Eastern time, with a webcast available for investors [1][2]. Company Overview - Lowe's is a FORTUNE® 100 home improvement company, serving approximately 16 million customer transactions weekly, with total fiscal year 2024 sales exceeding $83 billion [4]. - The company employs around 300,000 associates and operates over 1,700 home improvement stores, 530 branches, and 130 distribution centers [4]. - Lowe's is based in Mooresville, N.C., and engages in community support through various programs aimed at safe housing, community improvement, skilled trade development, and disaster relief [4].

Core Insights - Lowe's Companies, Inc. has significantly underperformed the broader market and sector over the past year, with stock prices declining 4.6% year-to-date and 14.3% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 Index and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund have shown positive returns [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Lowe's reported net sales of approximately $24 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 1.6%, although it slightly missed market expectations. Adjusted EPS increased by 5.6% year-over-year to $4.33, surpassing consensus estimates by 2.4% [4]. - For the full fiscal 2026, analysts project an adjusted EPS of $12.31, representing a 2.6% year-over-year increase. The company has a strong earnings surprise history, exceeding bottom-line estimates in the last four quarters [5]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Among 29 analysts covering Lowe's stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of 18 "Strong Buys," one "Moderate Buy," nine "Holds," and one "Strong Sell" [5]. - Evercore ISI analyst Greg Melich maintained an "In-Line" rating but reduced the price target from $245 to $240. The mean price target of $281.09 indicates a 19.4% premium to current price levels, while the highest target of $325 suggests a potential upside of 38.1% [7].

Core Insights - Madison Large Cap Fund underperformed the S&P 500 Index, decreasing by 2.2% in Q3 2025 compared to an 8.1% gain for the index, primarily due to a market focus on short-term profits [1] - The fund's top five contributors included Lowe's Companies, Inc., which benefited from an improving U.S. housing market and announced the acquisition of Foundation Building Materials [3] Fund Performance - Madison Large Cap Fund's performance in Q3 2025 was significantly lower than the S&P 500 Index, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1] - The fund's focus on long-term investments may have contributed to its underperformance relative to the benchmark [1] Company Focus: Lowe's Companies, Inc. - Lowe's Companies, Inc. experienced a one-month return of -3.21% and a 52-week loss of 13.66%, with its stock closing at $233.03 on November 10, 2025, and a market capitalization of $130.689 billion [2] - The company was highlighted as a top contributor to the fund's performance, with improvements linked to a thawing U.S. housing market and growth opportunities from its acquisition of Foundation Building Materials [3] Hedge Fund Interest - Lowe's Companies, Inc. was held by 75 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 68 in the previous quarter, indicating growing interest among institutional investors [4] - Despite this interest, the analysis suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential compared to Lowe's [4]

Home Improvement Market Overview - The home improvement market is currently weak, with muted performance from Home Depot and Lowe's [2] - The market is lapping the hurricane benefit from the previous year, which was a 55 basis points tailwind for Home Depot and 100 basis points for Lowe's [2] - There is no significant optimism in the home improvement space currently, though rate cuts next year could potentially drive demand [3] Lowe's vs Home Depot - Bernstein prefers Lowe's over Home Depot in the medium term [4] - Lowe's is trading at a valuation discount to Home Depot [5] - Lowe's is more cyclical and expected to benefit more on the upside when the market rebounds [6] - Lowe's has more cost savings opportunities and the valuation gap provides more downside protection [6] Pro Customer & Acquisitions - Both Home Depot and Lowe's are entering the complex pro market, targeting bigger ticket pros [8] - Upcoming guidance from both companies will reflect recent acquisitions, which are likely to be margin dilutive in the near term [8] - Near-term weakness is expected in the broader pro market based on peer and supplier reporting [9] - The housing market, new construction market, and roofing market are not showing signs of recovery [9]