PresentationGood morning, everybody. Welcome to the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference. My name is Jim Schneider. I'm the semiconductor analyst here at Goldman Sachs. And it's my pleasure to welcome Lam Research and CFO, Doug Bettinger, to the stage today. Welcome, Doug.Douglas BettingerExecutive VP & CFO Jim, thanks for having me. First, if you don't mind popping up my safe harbor slide. I just want to remind everybody I may make forward-looking statements that we haven't made before, alt ...

Group 1 - The Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference featured Lam Research's CFO, Doug Bettinger, as a speaker [1] - Doug Bettinger emphasized the importance of safe harbor language in his presentation, indicating that forward-looking statements may be made [2]

Summary of Lam Research Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lam Research (NasdaqGS:LRCX) - **Event**: 2025 Conference on September 10, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **WFE Growth**: Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) is expected to increase from $100 billion to $105 billion, driven by strength in China and DRAM markets [9][13] - **Market Position**: Lam Research is well-positioned in the etch and deposition markets, with a focus on advanced foundry and NAND sectors [18][20] - **Product Development**: Introduction of new products like the Akrion conductor etch tool and the Halo tool, which are expected to enhance market competitiveness [10][33] Financial Performance - **Revenue and Margins**: Achieved near-record revenue levels with a gross margin of 50% and an operating margin of 34.4%, marking all-time highs for the company [13][14] - **Earnings Per Share**: Reported all-time record earnings per share, reflecting strong financial health [14] - **Customer Mix**: Current favorable customer mix may not be sustainable, which could impact future margins [56][57] Strategic Focus - **Customer Engagement**: Emphasis on close-to-customer strategies in both lab and manufacturing to enhance service delivery and product development [11][30] - **CSBG Importance**: The Customer Support Business Group (CSBG) is a recurring revenue stream that is underappreciated but crucial for long-term profitability [28][66] Market Dynamics - **Foundry and Logic**: Anticipated continued strength in advanced foundry due to AI and compute demands, with a multi-year upgrade cycle expected in NAND [20][21] - **China Market**: Despite local competition, Lam maintains a strong market share in China, focusing on high-quality equipment [45][46] - **Regulatory Impact**: Recent U.S. government changes regarding licensing for multinationals operating in China are not expected to significantly impact Lam's business [48] Future Outlook - **Long-term Projections**: Lam Research aims for $26 billion in revenue by 2028, driven by growth in etch and deposition intensity and advanced packaging [64][65] - **Capital Intensity**: Capital intensity per wafer output is increasing, indicating a growing need for more equipment in the industry [22] Additional Considerations - **M&A Landscape**: The potential for large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor industry appears limited due to regulatory challenges, but smaller tuck-in acquisitions may still be possible [61][62] - **Service Innovation**: Advanced service delivery using equipment intelligence is expected to enhance profitability and customer satisfaction [30][31] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategic directions discussed during the Lam Research conference call, highlighting the company's robust market position and future growth potential.

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is undergoing significant internal differentiation, and merely being labeled as "domestic" does not guarantee success. Companies must possess both offensive and defensive capabilities to thrive in this competitive landscape [1][6][57]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector is heavily influenced by policy and technological breakthroughs, leading to varying growth potentials among companies [6]. - Companies that survive must be "dual-capable monsters," excelling in both new technology development and existing product iteration to maintain stable cash flow [6][57]. - The demand in the semiconductor market is split into two distinct tracks: advanced processes driven by a "technology arms race" and mature processes driven by massive chip demand from sectors like electric vehicles and IoT [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment in semiconductor equipment and materials is fundamentally about investing in the underlying infrastructure of the digital world, which offers strong certainty and sustainability [13]. - The investment landscape is layered, with higher technical barriers and profit margins in upstream sectors (EDA/IP, equipment) compared to downstream (design, manufacturing) [14]. - The real investment opportunities lie in the growth of domestic supply chains, particularly in critical components like RF power supplies and specialty ceramics [16][34]. Group 3: Market Trends - The global equipment market is dominated by major players like AMAT, ASML, and LAM, with a concentration ratio (CR3) exceeding 50%, indicating significant challenges for domestic players [33]. - China's semiconductor market is growing at a rate higher than the global average, driven by internal demand and policy support, making it a unique investment opportunity [36]. - The demand for advanced logic chips (≤28nm) is expected to grow rapidly, while mature logic (>28nm) represents the largest incremental opportunity, particularly in automotive and industrial control applications [40][41]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical pressures are creating a survival space for domestic manufacturers, with sanctions leading to a "stair-step" replacement rhythm, opening new opportunities for local firms [10][45]. - The timeline of sanctions indicates a systematic and long-term approach to containment, emphasizing the necessity for domestic substitution as a survival strategy [45]. Group 5: Challenges and Risks - The complexity and high costs associated with semiconductor manufacturing create significant barriers to entry, with any misstep potentially leading to substantial losses [20]. - The rapid pace of technological iteration requires high R&D investments, with projected R&D expenditures in the equipment sector exceeding 10 billion in 2024, reflecting a 42.5% increase [47]. - The materials sector faces high certification barriers and a lower domestic production rate, making it more challenging to achieve self-sufficiency compared to equipment [50][53].

Group 1 - Lam Research (LRCX) stock has experienced a continuous streak of gains over five days, resulting in an 8.8% cumulative return and an increase in market capitalization by approximately $12 billion, bringing it to about $135 billion [1][3] - The stock is currently 47.0% above its value at the end of 2024, while the S&P 500 has recorded year-to-date returns of 10.7% [1][3] - The recent gains in LRCX stock are likely influenced by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, which could positively impact tech stocks and growth companies [3][4] Group 2 - LRCX provides semiconductor processing equipment and services for integrated circuit fabrication to a global customer base, including regions such as the U.S., China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan [3] - The momentum observed in LRCX stock may indicate growing investor confidence, which can lead to follow-on buying, although it is important to monitor for potential reversals after significant gains [4] - Investing in LRCX stock appears attractive due to its winning streak, but thorough analysis is essential to mitigate risks associated with single-stock investments [5]

Core Viewpoint - Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) is facing a downgrade from Morgan Stanley due to anticipated slowdowns in key growth drivers, particularly in China and NAND memory markets [2][3]. Group 1: Downgrade and Price Target - Morgan Stanley downgraded Lam Research from 'Equal Weight' to 'Underweight' on September 1, 2025, and reduced its price target from $94 to $92 [2]. - The firm projects a significant decline in system shipment growth from 82% in 2025 to 3% in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Performance and Market Conditions - Despite a strong performance with a 23.68% revenue surge over the past year and notable gains in NAND market share, Lam Research is expected to face challenges due to weakening end-markets, especially in China [3]. - The company provides critical semiconductor processing equipment globally, including deposition, etch, and cleaning solutions for integrated circuit fabrication [4].

Joins an Industry-Leading Suite of Advanced Packaging SolutionsLeveraging the company's 15 years of leadership in advanced packaging and decades of expertise in dielectric films, TEOS 3D builds on Lam's existing VECTOR Core and TEOS product families, representing continuous innovation in materials and processes for integrated packaging. It is part of a comprehensive product portfolio of industry-leading solutions that addresses critical challenges and drives innovation and productivity across the advanced p ...

Key Takeaways Lam Research's Systems revenues jumped 28.8% year over year to $11.49 billion in fiscal 2025.Advanced packaging revenues topped $1B in 2024 and are expected to exceed $3B in 2025.Rising AI and high-performance computing demand is driving a greater need for LRCX's process tools.Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) sees advanced packaging as a major growth driver for its Systems segment sales in fiscal 2026. The company crossed $1 billion in advanced packaging-related revenues in the calendar year 20 ...

Group 1: Lam Research Corporation - Lam Research reported revenues of $5.17 billion and a gross margin of 50.1% for the quarter ending June 2025, with net income rising to $1.72 billion or $1.35 per diluted share, up from $1.03 in the prior quarter [1] - The company expects revenues around $5.2 billion next quarter, with earnings per share near $1.20, indicating continued strength in its core business [1] - Lam Research's stock has climbed 34.72% over the past year, with a strong 41% gain so far in 2025, reflecting growing confidence in the demand for advanced chips [3] - The company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share, up from $0.23, payable on October 15, 2025, marking its commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] - Lam Research continues to innovate with the launch of the ALTUS Halo tool for advanced chip production and has invested in Zettabyte, focusing on the growing AI market [7] Group 2: Ingredion Incorporated - Ingredion increased its quarterly payout to $0.82 per share on August 27, 2025, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [5] - The company reported a 13% jump in operating income to $271 million in Q2 2025, with earnings per share rising to $2.99 from $2.22 in the previous year [11] - Ingredion's stock has declined by 5.17% over the past year, but it offers a dividend yield of 2.5% and has increased dividends for 15 consecutive years, indicating potential value for investors [10] - The company is expanding its partnership with Univar Solutions to distribute plant-based ingredients and is investing $50 million to enhance its Cedar Rapids facility, showing a focus on growth beyond food ingredients [12] Group 3: Nordson Corporation - Nordson reported sales of $742 million in Q3 2025, a 12% increase compared to the prior year, with adjusted earnings per share jumping 13% to $2.73 [17] - The company offers a dividend yield of 1.04% and has increased dividends for 63 straight years, with a payout ratio under 30% [16] - Analysts are positive on Nordson's future, with all surveyed giving it a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating and an average price target of $256.44, indicating roughly 15% upside from the current price [19] Group 4: Market Overview - Recent dividend increases from Lam Research, Ingredion, and Nordson indicate confidence in their ability to generate steady cash flows amid uncertain economic conditions [20] - The semiconductor equipment sector, represented by Lam Research, shows strong growth potential, while Ingredion combines growth with a focus on healthier food options [20]

Core Insights - The revenue of the top five Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) manufacturers is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, HBM, and advanced packaging, alongside investments from domestic Chinese customers in mature nodes [1][3] - Despite the overall growth, DRAM and NAND memory equipment sales lagged due to weak demand in consumer-driven markets, resulting in a 13% quarter-on-quarter decline in memory revenue [1] - The top WFE manufacturers, including ASML, Lam Research, and KLA, reported significant revenue growth of 35%, 29%, and 26% respectively, aided by double-digit growth in systems and services [1][3] Revenue Growth and Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, net revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with system revenue up by 22% and service revenue up by 20, driven by customer upgrades and automation [3] - The WFE market is expected to see a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in 2025, with the top five manufacturers outpacing the overall market due to key technological shifts in foundry/logical, DRAM, and NAND sectors [3][4] - The introduction of various tools in etching, deposition, lithography, and process control will support customer roadmaps in foundry/logical, memory, and NAND sectors, contributing to revenue growth in the latter half of 2025 [3][4] Diversification and Strategic Focus - WFE manufacturers are focusing on global business diversification to mitigate the impact of trade regulations and tariffs, ensuring facilities are close to customers and supply chains [5][6] - The growth of the semiconductor ecosystem in India is becoming strategically important, with over $10 billion announced for wafer fabs and OSAT, supported by government subsidies [6][10] - The shift towards advanced packaging is seen as a new growth engine for the semiconductor industry, with advanced packaging becoming a strategic driver for performance and cost optimization [8][10] Future Outlook - The ramp-up of OSAT and foundry tool deployments in India is expected to lead to a surge in tool shipments, benefiting equipment suppliers from high-value capital expenditures and long-term service contracts [9][10] - The long-term growth potential in India is highlighted, with the country positioned to offset long-term revenue declines from China, as multiple fabs and OSAT facilities are established [11]