17 December 2025 U.S. Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Bernstein Semi Cycle Tearsheet: Why overcomplicate it? Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 917 344 8454 alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes +1 917 344 8461 arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com How quickly narratives shift…The steam has come out of the AI trade in recent months as investors more fully wonder when the music might stop (or if we're there already). Memory has come off of one ...

Core Insights - Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) experienced a significant stock price increase of 6.27%, closing at $164.70, driven by positive investor sentiment following bullish ratings and price target upgrades from investment firms [1][2]. Company Performance - The company reported a 40% increase in net income for the third quarter, rising to $1.57 billion from $1.12 billion year-on-year [4]. - Revenues also saw a substantial growth of 27%, reaching $5.3 billion compared to $4.17 billion in the same period last year [5]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Mizuho raised its price target for Lam Research to $200, reflecting a 21.4% upside from the latest closing price, and issued an "outperform" rating [2][3]. - B. Riley increased its price target to $195, maintaining a "buy" recommendation, citing confidence in the company's memory exposure and leadership in etching tools [3]. - Jefferies also maintained a "buy" recommendation for Lam Research with a price target of $200 [3].

Group 1 - Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh raised the price target on Lam Research (LRCX) to $200 from $170, maintaining an Outperform rating on the shares [1] - The firm anticipates upside to 2026 based on fab equipment estimates [1] - The improving wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) outlook is seen as positive for Lam Research [1]

AI chip stocks haven’t had the smoothest of rides lately, but Bank of America believes the bigger trend driving them is intact. In doing so, the investment bank's analysts are putting familiar names at the top of their AI stocks to buy list for 2026. Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and Lam Research (LRCX) are BofA’s three headline picks, as it argues that the powerful AI spending boom is still in its early innings. For perspective, four of the biggest tech giants in Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta ...

Key Takeaways LRCX posted a 48.3% YoY jump in Systems revenues to $3.55B, with foundry sales rising to 60% of the total.LRCX gains from AI and HPC-led investments, supported by its strength in critical etch and deposition tools.LRCX is seeing traction for Aether EUV and Akara systems, with FY26 Systems revenues projected at $14.07B.Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is seeing growing support from artificial intelligence (AI)-driven demand in the foundry market, which is becoming a key driver of its systems rev ...

Group 1 - The stock market is focused on which chip designer will dominate in the AI era, with NVIDIA and AMD as key players, but the essential factory tools for chip production are often overlooked [3] - The competition among chip designers creates a "picks and shovels" investment opportunity, as companies providing the necessary infrastructure for AI clouds are positioned for stable growth [4] - For every $100 billion invested in AI data center infrastructure, approximately $8 billion is expected to flow into the Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market, which is projected to exceed $105 billion in 2025 [5] Group 2 - High-end chip manufacturing operates as an oligopoly, requiring specific tools for specific tasks, making it difficult for fabs to substitute equipment [6] - Applied Materials is recognized as a leader in materials engineering, crucial for logic chips and advanced packaging, addressing the heat generated by powerful chips [6] - Both Applied Materials and Lam Research manufacture specialized equipment for next-generation chips, providing stable revenue streams and consistent returns for investors [7]

Group 1 - The core belief of Bank of America is that the AI spending boom has a long development period ahead, with Nvidia (NVDA.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Lam Research (LRCX.US) being top semiconductor stocks to hold through 2026 [1] - The company predicts semiconductor sales will approach $1 trillion by 2026, achieving approximately 30% growth, while wafer fabrication equipment sales are expected to see nearly double-digit year-over-year growth [1] - In addition to the aforementioned companies, Bank of America favors large-cap stocks like KLA (KLAC.US), Analog Devices (ADI.US), and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.US), as well as small-cap stocks such as Credo Technology (CRDO.US), MKS (MKSI.US), Macom Technology Solutions (MTSI.US), Teradyne (TER.US), and Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS.US) [1] Group 2 - Bank of America states that the AI race is still in the "early to mid-stage," and despite recent stock volatility for companies like Nvidia and Broadcom, investors should focus on industry leaders [2] - The firm forecasts another 50% or higher year-over-year growth for AI semiconductors driven by strong data center utilization, supply constraints, enterprise adoption, and competition among LLM developers, hyperscale cloud providers, and sovereign customers [2] - In the analog chip sector, the analysts advise investors to be selective due to skepticism about industry improvement, citing a lackluster macro environment, declining automotive production, increased competition from China, and weak consumer demand [2] Group 3 - Emerging themes for 2026 include co-packaged optics, robotics, and quantum computing, with Lumentum (LITE.US) and Coherent (COHR.US) identified as leaders in the co-packaged optics space [3] - The focus of the White House on robotics technology in 2026 is expected to benefit Teradyne [3] - Quantum computing is still viewed as an "emerging opportunity," despite its long-term implications [3]

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a significant decline on December 12, 2025, primarily driven by sell-offs in technology stocks due to concerns over an AI bubble narrative [1] - Investors reacted negatively to news from Broadcom, which indicated expected margin pressure in its AI business for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, despite exceeding fiscal fourth-quarter earnings estimates [1] Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, equity investors may favor dividend-growth stocks over high price-growth stocks, as companies with a history of raising dividends typically demonstrate strong financial health, providing a defensive hedge against economic uncertainty [2] - Stocks with a strong history of year-over-year dividend growth are suggested to form a healthier portfolio with greater potential for capital appreciation compared to simple dividend-paying stocks or those with high yields [2] Selected Dividend Growth Stocks - Five dividend growth stocks have been identified as potential solid choices for investment: TE Connectivity (TEL), Enersys (ENS), Donaldson (DCI), Lam Research (LRCX), and Leidos Holdings (LDOS) [3][9] - These stocks exhibit positive sales and earnings per share (EPS) growth histories, consistent dividend increases, solid fundamentals, and favorable valuation metrics [9] Characteristics of Dividend Growth Stocks - Stocks with a strong history of dividend growth are typically associated with mature companies that are less vulnerable to market volatility, thus providing a hedge against economic or political uncertainties [4] - These stocks are characterized by superior fundamentals, including sustainable business models, long-term profitability, rising cash flows, good liquidity, strong balance sheets, and value characteristics [5] - Although these stocks may not have the highest yields, they have historically outperformed the broader stock market and other dividend-paying stocks [6] Performance Metrics - Selected stocks must meet specific criteria, including: - 5-Year Historical Dividend Growth Greater Than Zero - 5-Year Historical Sales Growth Greater Than Zero - 5-Year Historical EPS Growth Greater Than Zero - Next 3-5 Year EPS Growth Rate Greater Than Zero [7] - Additional metrics include a Price/Cash Flow ratio less than the industry median and a 52-Week Price Change greater than the S&P 500 [8] Individual Stock Insights - **TE Connectivity (TEL)**: Expected fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 10.2%, long-term earnings growth rate of 12.3%, and an annual dividend yield of 1.23% [10][11] - **Enersys (ENS)**: Projected fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 4%, long-term earnings growth rate of 15%, and an annual dividend yield of 0.71% [11][12] - **Donaldson (DCI)**: Anticipated fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 3.4%, long-term earnings growth rate of 10%, and an annual dividend yield of 1.30% [12] - **Lam Research (LRCX)**: Expected fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 14.1%, long-term earnings growth rate of 20.3%, and an annual dividend yield of 0.65% [13] - **Leidos Holdings (LDOS)**: Projected fiscal 2025 revenue growth of 3.4%, long-term earnings growth rate of 11.6%, and an annual dividend yield of 0.84% [14]

Core Insights - Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) is recognized as one of the 13 best nanotechnology stocks to invest in currently [1] - Analysts have reaffirmed positive ratings for Lam Research, with Bernstein maintaining a buy rating and a price target of $175.00 [2] - Morgan Stanley has increased its price target for Lam Research from $137 to $158, while keeping its wafer fab equipment (WFE) forecast for 2026 at $129 billion, indicating an 11% year-over-year growth [3] Company Developments - Lam Research announced the opening of a new $65 million office facility in Tualatin, Oregon, which spans 120,000 square feet and can accommodate up to 700 workspaces [4] - The new facility is part of Lam's multi-year Silicon Forest strategy aimed at enhancing research and development capabilities to support the anticipated growth of the $1 trillion global semiconductor industry [4] - The senior vice president of Lam Research highlighted that the new facility will enhance the company's ability to advance process development and semiconductor production machinery [5] Market Position - Lam Research is a significant supplier of semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment, having shifted from a focus primarily on memory chip manufacturers to gaining substantial market share in logic chip equipment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Lam Research (LRCX) has shown significant stock performance, with a 4.2% increase over the past month and a 133% gain since the beginning of the year, outperforming both the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the Zacks Electronics - Semiconductors industry [1] Financial Performance - In the last earnings report on October 22, 2025, Lam Research reported an EPS of $1.26, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.21, marking a consistent record of positive earnings surprises over the last four quarters [2] - For the current fiscal year, Lam Research is projected to achieve earnings of $4.79 per share on revenues of $21.04 billion, reflecting a 15.7% increase in EPS and a 14.11% increase in revenues. For the next fiscal year, earnings are expected to rise to $5.57 per share on revenues of $23.63 billion, indicating year-over-year changes of 16.23% and 12.33%, respectively [3] Valuation Metrics - Lam Research's current valuation metrics indicate a trading multiple of 35.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is below the peer industry average of 37.7X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock trades at 37.7X compared to the peer group's average of 22.8X. The PEG ratio stands at 1.73, suggesting that the company is not positioned among the top tier from a value perspective [7] Style Scores - The stock has a Value Score of D, a Growth Score of A, and a Momentum Score of C, resulting in a combined VGM Score of B. These style scores can assist investors in selecting stocks that align with their investment strategies [6][5] Zacks Rank - Lam Research holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), supported by a favorable earnings estimate revision trend. This rank is crucial as it takes precedence over style scores in determining stock selection [8] - The company meets the criteria for investment recommendations, as it carries a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) along with Style Scores of A or B, indicating potential for further growth in the upcoming weeks and months [9]