Core Insights - Medpace Holdings Inc. reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share of $3.86, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.52, and sales of $659.9 million, surpassing the consensus of $640.99 million [1][2] - Year-over-year sales growth was 23.7%, and on a constant currency basis, revenue increased by 23.4% [1] - The company raised its fiscal 2025 earnings per share guidance to a range of $14.60-$14.86, compared to the previous range of $13.76-$14.53 and the consensus of $14.07 [2] Financial Performance - The backlog as of September 30, 2025, increased by 2.5% to approximately $3 billion [2] - Net new business awards for the third quarter were $789.6 million, resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.20x, compared to $533.7 million a year ago [2] - EBITDA for the third quarter rose by 24.9% to $148.4 million, representing 22.5% of revenue, compared to 22.3% a year ago [2] Market Sentiment - Analysts noted a significant increase in bookings, with net new business awards up about 30% sequentially and 60% from the first quarter of 2025 [5] - There is rising optimism in biotech funding, with indications that demand in the biotech sector has bottomed out and is beginning to improve [5] - Medpace appears to be benefiting from several large wins in the metabolic space, particularly related to GLP-1 [5]

Core Insights - The company's new orders increased significantly by 49% in the third quarter compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1 - The substantial growth in new orders indicates strong demand for the company's products and services [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $659.9 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.7% [5][6] - Year-to-date revenue as of September 30, 2025, was $1.82 billion, an increase of 15.9% [7] - EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $148.4 million, up 24.9% from $118.8 million in Q3 2024 [7][8] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $111.1 million, a 15.3% increase compared to $96.4 million in the prior year [8] - Full-year 2025 total revenue is expected to be in the range of $2.48 billion to $2.53 billion, representing growth of 17.6% to 20% over 2024 [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net new business awards entering backlog in Q3 increased 47.9% year-over-year to $789.6 million, resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.20 [5][6] - Ending backlog as of September 30, 2025, was approximately $3 billion, a 2.5% increase from the prior year [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pass-through costs are expected to remain high, representing between 41% and 42% of revenue [5] - The therapeutic mix has shifted to faster-burning studies, impacting the concentration of reimbursable costs [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on refilling its pipeline of opportunities and anticipates low double-digit revenue growth for 2026 [4] - Management indicated that the pass-through costs may peak in Q4 2025 and then decrease in 2026 [14] - The company is experiencing a competitive environment with an increase in the number of CROs bidding for projects, but maintains a strong competitive position [49][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that cancellations have been a significant factor affecting business, rather than a weak funding environment [25] - The overall business environment remains stable, with improvements in funding and fewer cancellations expected to continue [41] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to convert backlog into revenue, with a larger pre-backlog bucket of awarded studies [22][39] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 14,649 shares for $4.5 million in Q3 2025, with $821.7 million remaining under the share repurchase authorization program [8][9] - The effective tax rate for 2025 is projected to be between 18.25% and 18.75% [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about the pass-throughs in relation to the increase in metabolic work? - Management indicated that pass-through costs are expected to level off and may decrease in 2026, driven by the timing of projects and the nature of new studies [12][14] Question: Why is the EBITDA growth lower than revenue growth? - The primary driver for the lower EBITDA growth is attributed to pass-through costs, along with other challenges such as exchange rates [16][18] Question: How does the conversion rate of pre-backlog factor into future revenue? - Management noted that the pre-backlog of awarded studies is larger than the current backlog and is expected to improve backlog conversion in 2026 [22][39] Question: What is the competitive landscape like? - Management stated that while competition has increased, their win rate remains stable, and they do not see a significant deterioration in competitive position [49][50] Question: Can you provide more detail on the metabolic indexing? - Management confirmed that GLP-1 accounts for a significant portion of their metabolic work, but there are also other therapeutic areas contributing to growth [74][75]

Q3 2025 FINANCIAL RESULTS OCTOBER 22, 2025 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS & NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements contained in this presentation that do not relate to matters of historical fact should be considered forward- looking statements, including without limitation, statements regarding our forecasted financial results and the effective tax rate ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Wall Street's three main equity benchmarks closed lower, with Netflix dropping over -10% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS, and Texas Instruments sliding more than -5% due to underwhelming Q4 guidance [2] - Higher bond yields are impacting stock index futures, with Treasury yields climbing as oil prices surged over +5% following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [3][10] - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose +0.18% as investors reacted positively to corporate earnings reports, particularly in the energy sector due to rising oil prices [10] Group 2: Corporate Earnings - Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.2% increase in Q3 earnings compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years [6] - Tesla reported weaker-than-expected Q3 adjusted EPS despite a sales surge, leading to a pre-market drop of over -3% [4][14] - Medpace Holdings surged over +18% in pre-market trading after posting upbeat Q3 results and raising its full-year guidance [4][15] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the publication of weekly jobless claims, with investors focusing on existing home sales data expected to show 4.06 million in September [7] - Fed rate futures indicate a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting [8] - France's manufacturing business climate index climbed to a 1-1/2-year high in October, surpassing its long-term average for the first time since early March 2024 [10][11] Group 4: International Developments - China's Shanghai Composite Index closed higher on hopes for fresh stimulus measures and de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, with financial stocks leading gains [12] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed lower as investors took profits following a recent rally, with technology stocks leading the declines [13]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures experienced volatility following declines on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing lower futures [1] - Disappointing earnings guidance and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have negatively impacted investor confidence [1] - The Trump administration is contemplating new export restrictions to China, targeting products made with U.S.-developed software [1] Treasury Yields and Federal Reserve Outlook - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 3.98%, while the two-year bond was at 3.46% [2] - Market projections indicate a 96.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in its October meeting [2] Stock Performance Highlights - Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 3.04% in premarket trading despite reporting better-than-expected revenue for Q3, with earnings missing estimates [6] - International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) dropped 7.14% despite better-than-expected financial results, but raised its full-year 2025 revenue growth guidance to "more than" 5% [6] - American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) rose 1.41% as analysts anticipate a quarterly loss of 28 cents per share on revenue of $13.63 billion [6] - Medpace Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) surged 18.52% after reporting Q3 revenue of $659.9 million and earnings of $3.86 per share, both exceeding analyst estimates [12] Economic Data and Analyst Insights - Initial jobless claims data will be delayed due to an impending shutdown, with existing home sales for September expected to be released at 10:00 a.m. ET [13] - Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO, argues that the Federal Reserve is "behind the curve" and should implement significant rate cuts to align with market conditions [9][10] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures increased by 5.220% to approximately $61.54 per barrel [14] - Gold Spot prices rose 0.38% to around $4,114.22 per ounce, while Bitcoin traded 1.16% higher at $109,323.15 per coin [14]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures experienced volatility following declines on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing lower futures [1] - Disappointing earnings guidance and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have negatively impacted investor confidence [1] - The Trump administration is contemplating new export restrictions to China, targeting products made with U.S.-developed software [1] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 3.98%, while the two-year bond was at 3.46% [2] - Market expectations indicate a 96.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in its October meeting [2] Stock Performance - Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 3.04% in premarket trading despite reporting better-than-expected revenue for Q3, with earnings missing estimates [6] - International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) dropped 7.14% despite better-than-expected Q3 results, but raised its full-year 2025 revenue growth guidance to "more than" 5% [6] - American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) rose 1.41% as analysts anticipate a quarterly loss of 28 cents per share on revenue of $13.63 billion [6] - Medpace Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) surged 18.52% after reporting Q3 revenue of $659.9 million and earnings of $3.86 per share, both exceeding analyst estimates [12] - Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) shares remained unchanged ahead of its earnings report, with analysts expecting earnings of 36 cents per share on revenue of $43.08 billion [12] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed negatively, with communication services, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks experiencing the largest losses [7] Analyst Insights - Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO, argues that the Federal Reserve is "behind the curve" and needs to implement "meaningful" rate cuts, suggesting a need for cuts of 150 basis points or more [9][10] - Wilson believes the economy has transitioned into an "early cycle new recovery," dismissing recent market volatility as part of a new economic cycle [11]

Core Insights - Biotech stocks experienced significant gains in after-hours trading on October 22, 2023, primarily driven by Ventyx Biosciences' positive Phase 2 data, which led to an 88% surge in its stock price [1][2]. Company Performance - Ventyx Biosciences Inc. (VTYX) saw its shares increase by over 88% following the announcement of positive results from its Phase 2 study of VTX3232 for patients with obesity and cardiovascular risk factors [2]. - Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) reported better-than-expected Q3 results, resulting in an over 18% increase in its stock price during after-hours trading [2]. - Inhibrx Biosciences Inc. (INBX) shares rose over 10% to $34.98 after announcing a live webcast presentation to discuss topline results from the ChonDRAgon study [3]. - SCYNEXIS Inc. (SCYX) shares increased by over 11% to $0.87 [4]. - Acumen Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ABOS) experienced a notable rise of over 24.9% to $2.31 [4]. - Rani Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (RANI) shares were up over 9% at $2.64 [4]. - iBio Inc. (IBIO) shares increased by over 7% to $1.50 [4]. - Chemomab Therapeutics Ltd. (CMMB) shares rose over 7% to $3.32 [4]. - Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) shares increased by over 7% to $1.35 [4]. - ProQR Therapeutics N.V. (PRQR) shares were up over 7% at $2.92 [4]. - Tyra Biosciences Inc. (TYRA) shares increased by over 7% to $15.00 [4]. - Imunon Inc. (IMNN) shares rose over 4% to $4.90 [4].

Core Insights - The Optimist Fund achieved a return of +9.1% in Q3 2025, significantly outperforming its benchmark [5] - The fund's year-to-date return stands at 44.5%, compared to the benchmark's 11.1% [5] - The fund anticipates continued growth opportunities over the next three and a half years, similar to recent performance [4] Fund Performance - The fund's performance over various periods shows significant volatility, with a notable recovery from a -51.4% return in 2022 to 82.9% in 2023 [5] - Compound returns as of September 30, 2025, indicate strong performance across 1-year (61.2%), 2-year (65.6%), and 3-year (61.9%) periods [5] Top Contributors - **Wayfair**: Revenue increased by approximately 5% year-over-year to $3.27 billion, marking its fastest growth since Q1 2021. Adjusted EBITDA reached $205 million, indicating a margin above 6% for the first time since Q2 2021 [7][8][9] - **ThredUp**: Revenue rose 16% year-over-year to $77.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by around 100%. Active buyers grew by 17% to 1.47 million [10][11][12] - **Carvana**: Retail units sold increased by 41% year-over-year to 143,280 vehicles, with total revenue rising 42% to $4.84 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $601 million, reflecting a 12.4% margin [13][14][15] Top Detractors - **Monday.com**: Despite a 27% increase in revenue, the company reduced its second-half 2025 revenue guidance due to weaker performance marketing trends, causing investor concerns [20][21][22] - **Fiverr**: Results were below expectations, leading to a reduction in position size despite maintaining an attractive risk/reward profile [25][26] Portfolio Composition - The top 10 holdings comprise approximately 85% of the portfolio, including ThredUp, Monday.com, Carvana, Uber, Wayfair, DoorDash, First Advantage, Fiverr, Latham Group, and Medpace [27] Notable Changes - The fund exited positions in HelloFresh and Revolve due to management changes and reduced confidence in growth prospects, reallocating capital to more promising opportunities [29][30] Company Insights - **Medpace**: A leading contract research organization (CRO) focused on small and mid-sized biotech companies, showing strong revenue growth of 14.2% year-over-year to $603.3 million [31][18][35] - The company has a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with a history of share repurchases during market downturns, enhancing long-term growth potential [34][35]

Medpace (MEDP) came out with quarterly earnings of $3.86 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.5 per share. This compares to earnings of $3.01 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +10.29%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this provider of outsourced clinical development services would post earnings of $3 per share when it actually produced earnings of $3.1, delivering a surprise of +3.33%.Over the ...