Core Viewpoint - MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) is rated as a Buy, with an expected upside of 24% over the next 12 months based on a residual income model [1] Investment Approach - The investment strategies employed include GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), Value, and Growth [1] - The analysis closely monitors insider buying and stock buybacks [1] - Technical analysis tools such as Elliott Wave, EMA crossovers, and chart patterns are also utilized [1]

Group 1 - Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office purchased 4,619 shares of MercadoLibre (MELI) in Q3 2025, amounting to approximately $11.09 million, continuing a buying trend that started in Q2 2024 with about $101 million and 58,344 shares acquired [1][2] - MercadoLibre is recognized as Latin America's leading e-commerce and fintech platform, currently trading on the Nasdaq at $1,998, reflecting a 0.16% increase in the last 24 hours [2] - Analysts have shown strong support for MELI, with Citi maintaining a buy rating and a target price of $2,500, Morgan Stanley holding an Overweight rating with a $2,950 target, and Barclays raising its target to $2,900 [2][3] Group 2 - Bank of America issued a buy rating for MELI with a target of $3,000, while JPMorgan Chase maintains a hold rating with a target of $2,650 [3] - Druckenmiller's investment in MELI now represents 3.4% of his $4.06 billion portfolio, valued at $136.35 million, aligning with his strategy focused on high-growth technology investments [3]

Group 1: Top Investment Picks - The top investment picks for the year include Amazon, Meta, Mardo Libre, and DoorDash, which stand out among other overweight-rated stocks [1] - Amazon is expected to see a payoff from its investments in AWS and AI infrastructure by 2026, leading to an acceleration in its AWS business [2] - Meta is at the beginning of an investment cycle with strong growth anticipated, and visibility into spending is expected to improve by the second half of 2026 [3] Group 2: Autonomous Driving and AI Trends - 2026 is projected to be a significant year for autonomous driving, with companies like Whimo expanding into 20 markets and Tesla entering 30 US markets [6] - The transition from human-driven to robot-driven activities is expected to lower traffic deaths and improve consumer health [7] - The focus is shifting towards quantifying returns from AI use cases in enterprise and consumer applications, with Meta being an early beneficiary [8] Group 3: Performance of Ride-Hailing Companies - Uber has shown recovery this year after underperforming in 2024 due to fears of autonomous driving impacting its business [10] - Lyft is more exposed to the rapid ramp-up of autonomous driving, as over 90% of its gross bookings come from the US, which could affect its share price negatively [12] - Uber's diversified business model, including a significant delivery segment, provides it with more insulation compared to Lyft [11] Group 4: Carvana's Market Position - Carvana has experienced a remarkable recovery, with its stock price increasing significantly since 2022, showcasing a nearly 10,000% return for early investors [14] - The company has improved its business model by going direct to consumer and achieving better inventory turnover than competitors like CarMax [16] - Carvana is expected to continue gaining market share in the used auto industry, which is characterized by declining commodity costs [17]

Core Insights - The analyst rated MercadoLibre (MELI) as a Hold in October, primarily due to concerns regarding valuation and execution rather than the quality of the business or the size of the opportunity [1]. Group 1: Analyst Background - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, focusing on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization [1]. - Previously served as Vice President at Barclays, leading teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, which contributed to a deep expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis [1]. - Co-authors investment research with a partner, combining complementary strengths to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights [1]. Group 2: Research Approach - The research approach blends rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation [1]. - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, aiming to provide actionable ideas for investors seeking to outperform the market [1].

Core Viewpoint - Apple has reached a settlement with Brazil's antitrust regulator CADE, allowing third-party app stores and payment methods in its iOS system to conclude a three-year antitrust investigation [2] Group 1: Settlement Details - The agreement permits third-party app stores to operate within Brazil's iOS ecosystem and allows in-app purchases to utilize third-party payment methods or link to external websites for transactions [2] - CADE's internal group approved the agreement by a majority vote, with the terms effective for three years and immediately binding on developers [2] - Apple must implement the necessary adjustments within 105 days, with a potential fine of up to 150 million Brazilian Reais (approximately 27 million USD) for non-compliance [2] Group 2: Background and Reactions - The case originated from a complaint by Latin American e-commerce platform MercadoLibre in 2022, which alleged that Apple restricted the distribution of digital goods and in-app payments [2] - MercadoLibre acknowledged CADE's efforts but stated that the agreement only partially improves the competitive environment [2] - Apple has indicated it will comply with regulatory requirements but warned that these changes may pose privacy and security risks [2]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) is focusing on Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) as the main driver for growth in Latin America, lowering Brazil's free shipping threshold from R$79 to R$19 to capture more everyday purchases [1][8] - This strategy aims to increase transaction frequency rather than relying on higher average order values or sporadic demand spikes [1] GMV Expansion - Early indicators show that the new shipping threshold led to a 42% year-over-year growth in sold items in Brazil during Q3 2025, with new listings in the R$19-R$79 price range tripling year over year [2] - The combination of increased purchase frequency and a broader assortment in price-sensitive categories suggests a positive response from both buyers and sellers [2] Near-term Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's Q4 2025 GMV is $19.04 billion, reflecting a 31% year-over-year growth and a sequential increase of 15% from Q3's $16.5 billion [3] - This growth outlook indicates rising transaction density during the peak seasonal period, suggesting that GMV momentum could extend beyond a single quarter [3] Execution Risks - There are execution risks as MELI balances GMV growth with profitability, with direct contribution margins in Brazil compressing due to free shipping subsidies outpacing immediate revenue gains [4] - Intense competition may necessitate ongoing promotional investments, impacting the ability to maintain transaction intensity without additional cost pressures [4] Competitive Landscape - Competition in Latin American e-commerce is fierce, with Amazon and Sea Limited pursuing volume-led strategies in overlapping markets [5] - Amazon focuses on logistics and Prime-led fulfillment, while Sea Limited uses shipping subsidies to stimulate GMV in price-sensitive segments [5] Share Price Performance - MELI shares have decreased by 21% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which increased by 5.6% and 4.7%, respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - MELI is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 2.77X, compared to the industry's 2.1X, and has a Value Score of C [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's Q4 2025 earnings is $11.66 per share, reflecting a 7.53% year-over-year decline [11]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) and JD.com (JD) are leading e-commerce platforms outside the U.S., with MELI dominating Latin America and JD.com in China, both evolving into integrated ecosystems combining commerce, logistics, and fintech [1][2] Group 1: Business Models and Growth - MercadoLibre operates on a marketplace-centric, asset-light model, achieving 39% revenue growth in Q3 2025, compared to JD.com's 15% growth, but faces margin compression with operating income growing only 30% [3][4] - JD.com has a vertically integrated logistics infrastructure, with 24% revenue growth in marketplace and advertising in Q3 2025, and a significant increase in active merchant counts by over 200% year-over-year [10][8] Group 2: User Acquisition and Fintech Operations - MercadoLibre reached 75 million quarterly active buyers, adding 7.8 million in Q3, but aggressive spending on free shipping and promotions has compressed contribution margins [4][5] - JD.com is expanding into higher-margin areas like food delivery, although profitability in this segment requires navigating intense competition [10][8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - MELI's 2025 EPS is estimated at $39.80, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year growth, while JD's EPS is pegged at $2.82, indicating a 33.8% decline [6][11] - Over the past six months, MELI shares declined 18.5%, while JD shares fell 8.7%, indicating greater investor confidence in JD's balanced growth approach [12] - MELI trades at a forward earnings multiple of 33.8x, while JD trades at 9.3x, suggesting a premium for MELI's growth expectations despite JD's consistent margin expansion [14] Group 4: Competitive Positioning - JD.com's disciplined approach balances growth with margin expansion, positioning it favorably against MercadoLibre's strategy that sacrifices profitability for market share [17] - The contrasting market expectations are evident, with JD's valuation discount appearing attractive given its ability to sustain double-digit growth while improving profitability [14][17]

Group 1 - The investment strategy focuses on companies with strong qualitative attributes, aiming to buy at attractive prices based on fundamentals and hold indefinitely [1] - The portfolio management approach is concentrated, emphasizing the avoidance of underperforming stocks while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners [1] - Companies may receive a 'Hold' rating if their growth opportunities do not meet the analyst's threshold or if the downside risk is deemed too high [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in AMZN shares, indicating a personal investment interest in the company [2] - The article reflects the analyst's personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2] - There is no business relationship between the analyst and any company whose stock is discussed in the article [2]

Core Insights - The biggest investing stories of 2025 include a significant sell-off and rebound following President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, the ongoing AI boom, and notable stock splits such as Netflix's 10-for-1 split and O'Reilly Automotive's 15-for-1 split [1] Company Insights - MercadoLibre is a leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, with shares currently around $1,960, down from over $2,000 in 2025 [4] - Since its IPO in 2007, MercadoLibre has never conducted a stock split, yet its share price has increased more than 70 times [5] - The company ranks among the top in monthly active users across the countries it serves and is expanding its digital advertising business, holding the third-largest market share in Latin America [6] - MercadoLibre has significant growth potential, targeting markets with a combined population of over 500 million and a GDP of approximately $5.5 trillion, with e-commerce penetration still lagging behind the U.S. and China [7] Industry Insights - Meta Platforms, another candidate for a stock split, has shares trading around $660 and has never conducted a stock split [10] - Meta's family of apps attracts over 3.5 billion active users daily, representing about 42% of the global population [10]

Group 1: Stanley Druckenmiller's Investment Moves - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire stake in Broadcom and bought shares of MercadoLibre in the third quarter [1][2] - Broadcom has a strong presence in networking chips and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), holding over 80% market share in Ethernet switching and routing chips [4][5] - MercadoLibre operates the largest commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, accounting for 28% of online retail sales in the region in 2024, with projections to reach 30% by 2026 [10] Group 2: Broadcom's Financial Performance - Broadcom reported a 28% increase in revenue to $18 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by strong demand for AI semiconductors [6] - Non-GAAP net income increased 37% to $1.95 per diluted share [6] - Wall Street expects Broadcom's adjusted earnings to grow 42% annually over the next two years, with a median target price of $461 per share, implying a 35% upside from its current price of $342 [9] Group 3: MercadoLibre's Financial Performance - MercadoLibre's revenue increased 39% to $7.4 billion in the third quarter, with commerce and fintech segments growing by 33% and 49% respectively [13] - The company has seen a 29% increase in unique buyers in Brazil and a 42% increase in items sold, indicating strong growth [15] - Wall Street expects MercadoLibre's earnings to increase at 32% annually over the next three years, with a median target price of $2,842 per share, implying a 42% upside from its current price of $1,998 [16]