Core Viewpoint - MetLife, Inc. is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, with earnings estimated at $1.99 per share and revenues at $18.21 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8.7% and 7% respectively [1] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MetLife's revenues for the current year is $74.94 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.6% [2] - The consensus estimate for current-year EPS is $9.11, suggesting a year-over-year jump of approximately 12.33% [2] - In the last four quarters, MetLife beat the consensus estimate once, met it once, and missed twice, with an average surprise of negative 1.5% [2] Earnings Prediction - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for MetLife, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% but a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3][4] Factors Influencing Q1 Results - Rising adjusted group benefits revenues are anticipated to positively impact MetLife's first-quarter results, particularly from improved operations in international markets, especially Asia and Latin America [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total adjusted group benefits suggests a 2.3% increase from the prior-year quarter, driven by profits from Asia and Latin America [6] - Adjusted earnings from the domestic business are expected to grow by 10.5% year-over-year in the first quarter [7] Challenges - Rising costs and expenses may partially offset profit growth in the upcoming quarter, with net investment income consensus pegged at $5.3 billion, indicating a 3% decline year-over-year [9]

Core Insights - MetLife (MET) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.99 per share, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $18.21 billion, a 7% increase from the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.7% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Revenue- Premiums' to reach $10.97 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9.1% [5]. - 'Revenue- Other Revenues' is expected to be $631.98 million, reflecting a decline of 6.2% year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenue- Universal life and investment-type product policy fees' is forecasted at $1.27 billion, showing a 1.7% increase from the prior year [5]. Investment Income and Regional Revenue - 'Revenue- Net investment income' is estimated at $5.27 billion, suggesting a decrease of 3.1% year-over-year [6]. - 'Total Adjusted Revenue- Latin America' is projected to be $1.95 billion, indicating a 3.4% increase year-over-year [6]. - 'Total Adjusted Revenue- U.S. Business' is expected to reach $10.64 billion, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-over-year [7]. Regional Adjusted Revenue - 'Total Adjusted Revenue- EMEA' is estimated at $703.80 million, indicating a 4.4% increase year-over-year [8]. - 'Total Adjusted Revenue- Asia' is projected to be $2.99 billion, reflecting a 4.8% increase year-over-year [8]. - 'Adjusted Revenue- Asia- Net investment income' is expected to reach $1.25 billion, indicating a 13% increase from the prior year [9]. Stock Performance - MetLife shares have decreased by 8.7% over the past month, compared to a 4.8% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [10].

Core Insights - Octane has secured a forward-flow facility of up to $700 million, marking its largest agreement to date and its second partnership with life insurance providers [1][5] - The funding will be provided by New York Life ($350 million), MetLife Investment Management ($200 million), and Equitable ($150 million) for fixed-rate installment powersports loans [2] - The company experienced a 36% year-over-year growth in originations in 2024, indicating strong momentum [3] Company Overview - Octane is a fintech company focused on enhancing the buying experience for recreational purchases, utilizing advanced technology and innovative risk strategies [6][7] - The company supports approximately 60 OEM partner brands and over 4,000 dealer partners, employing a team of over 550 in remote and hybrid roles [7] Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with New York Life, MetLife, and Equitable aims to leverage Octane's stable credit performance and attract investment in alternative asset classes [4] - The collaboration is expected to strengthen relationships with these insurance partners and support Octane's growth and service offerings [4]

Group 1 - MetLife, Inc. has partnered with SKYGEN to improve the digital experience for dental providers, focusing on simplifying credentialing and provider interactions [1][2] - The integration of SKYGEN's Dental Hub will provide a centralized platform for managing credentialing and directory updates, reducing paperwork and stress for providers [2] - This initiative is expected to enhance provider relationships, leading to better service for policyholders and reinforcing MetLife's position in the dental insurance market [3] Group 2 - A streamlined credentialing system will lower administrative costs, speed up processing times, and improve claims management, resulting in quicker reimbursements for providers and patients [4] - An improved provider experience is likely to attract more dental professionals to MetLife's network, expanding the provider base and enhancing policyholder satisfaction, which contributes to premium revenue growth [4] Group 3 - MetLife shares have increased by 3.1% over the past year, compared to a 12.5% growth in the broader industry [5]

In terms of dividend growth, the company's current annualized dividend of $2.18 is up 1.2% from last year. Over the last 5 years, MetLife has increased its dividend 5 times on a year-over-year basis for an average annual increase of 4.31%. Any future dividend growth will depend on both earnings growth and the company's payout ratio; a payout ratio is the proportion of a firm's annual earnings per share that it pays out as a dividend. MetLife's current payout ratio is 27%. This means it paid out 27% of its t ...

Core Insights - MetLife has launched a new business unit named MetLife Xcelerator in Latin America, which is part of its New Frontier strategy aimed at enhancing digital distribution and strategic partnerships in the insurance sector [1][2] - The New Frontier strategy is projected to support double-digit growth in adjusted earnings per share and deliver a 15-17% adjusted return on equity, with plans to expand into high-growth international markets [2] - The Xcelerator platform integrates insurance products into digital platforms, achieving 4.5 million active customers and generating over $200 million in premiums, fees, and other income since its launch in November 2023 [3][4] Business Strategy - MetLife aims to leverage technology and an agile startup-like model to scale operations across Latin America, improving customer experience and broadening insurance inclusion in regions with traditionally low penetration [4][5] - The initiative positions MetLife as a leader in digital insurance innovation, providing a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving industry [5] Market Performance - MetLife shares have increased by 13.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 6.7% [6]

Core Viewpoint - MetLife's recent earnings report showed mixed results, with adjusted operating earnings per share (EPS) missing estimates but showing year-over-year growth. The company faces challenges in certain segments, particularly in the Group Benefits and Retirement and Income Solutions (RIS) units, while some areas like Asia performed well [2][3][9]. Financial Performance - Adjusted operating EPS for Q4 2024 was $2.08, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.4%, but increased by 7.8% year over year [2]. - Adjusted operating revenues reached $19.7 billion, a 5.4% increase year over year, surpassing consensus estimates by 2.7% [2]. - Total expenses were $17.3 billion, down 4.4% year over year, attributed to lower interest credited to policyholder accounts and reduced interest expenses [5]. Segment Analysis - Group Benefits segment reported adjusted earnings of $416 million, down 11% year over year, but above the consensus estimate [7]. - RIS segment's adjusted earnings fell 8% year over year to $386 million, missing estimates due to reduced margins [8]. - Asia's adjusted earnings grew 50% year over year to $443 million, exceeding estimates, although adjusted PFOs declined by 4% [9]. - Latin America reported adjusted earnings of $201 million, a 3% decrease year over year, but a 10% increase on a constant currency basis [10]. - EMEA segment's adjusted earnings increased 26% year over year to $59 million, though it was below consensus estimates [11]. Capital and Equity - As of December 31, 2024, MetLife had cash and cash equivalents of $20.1 billion, a decline of 2.8% from the previous year [13]. - Total equity fell 8.4% year over year to $27.7 billion, with book value per share at $34.28, down 4.4% [14]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates variable investment income of $1.7 billion for 2025 and expects adjusted losses in the Corporate & Other segment to be between $850 million and $950 million [16]. - Over the next three years, adjusted PFOs in the Group Benefits business are projected to rise by 4-7%, while declines are expected in the MetLife Holdings segment [17]. - The company aims for an adjusted return on equity in the range of 15-17% and double-digit adjusted EPS growth in the near term [18]. Market Position - MetLife's stock has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [22]. - The company is part of the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry, which has seen varied performance among peers, such as Everest Group, which reported significant revenue growth but faced challenges in EPS [23][24].

Strategy and Growth - MetLife is executing its New Frontier strategy to accelerate growth across four key areas: Group Benefits, retirement platform, Asset Management, and high growth international markets [25]. - The company is committed to executing its strategy while delivering attractive returns and all-weather performance [25]. Market Position and Operations - MetLife holds leading market positions in the U.S., Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East, and is one of the largest institutional investors in the U.S. [24]. - MetLife's Asia operations are geographically diverse, operating in nine jurisdictions with Japan being the largest market [43]. - The company employs a multi-channel distribution strategy in Latin America, with significant operations in Mexico and Chile [46]. - In EMEA, MetLife focuses on niche market segments, with major operations in the Gulf region, the U.K., and France [49]. Product Offerings - The Group Benefits segment offers a variety of insurance products, including life insurance, dental, and disability insurance, with a focus on voluntary products to increase sales [34]. - The Retirement and Income Solutions segment provides funding and financing solutions for institutional customers, focusing on employee benefit program liabilities [39]. - The company offers a wide range of life insurance products, including whole and term life, endowments, and variable life products [45]. - MetLife's retirement and savings products include fixed and variable annuities, primarily offered in Chile under a mandatory privatized social security system [48]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - MetLife's financial results are subject to various risks, including economic conditions, credit ratings, and regulatory changes, which may impact future performance [15]. - The company utilizes a variety of underwriting and pricing management controls to assess and quantify insurance risks [60]. - MetLife's pricing strategies are based on expected benefits payouts, considering factors such as mortality, longevity, and investment returns [65]. - MetLife's reinsurance agreements are designed to limit losses and provide additional capacity for future growth, covering individual and group risks [69]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory frameworks in the U.S. and internationally impose various capital and operational requirements on MetLife's insurance businesses [72]. - The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) adopted final guidance in 2023 for designating certain financial companies as non-bank SIFIs, simplifying the designation process and potentially increasing regulatory scrutiny [75]. - The NAIC increased the RBC factor for structured security residual tranches from 30% to 45%, effective for year-end 2024 RBC filings, with an immaterial impact on RBC [86]. - The NAIC's group capital calculation tool is now mandated by most states, including New York, which may impact MetLife's business operations [87]. Capital and Solvency - MetLife's Statement-Based Combined RBC Ratio was over 360% and 380% at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, indicating strong capital adequacy [84]. - State insurance statutes restrict dividend payments from insurance subsidiaries to the parent company, requiring regulatory approval for distributions exceeding prescribed limits [83]. - The EEA insurance business is governed by the Solvency II Directive, which promotes comparability and transparency in capital adequacy and risk management [102]. Employee and Talent Management - As of December 31, 2024, the company had approximately 45,000 employees, emphasizing the importance of attracting and retaining skilled talent [163]. - MetLife emphasizes a purpose-driven and inclusive culture to align with business objectives through global forums and employee feedback mechanisms [24]. - The company offers a digitally enabled learning platform, MyLearning, and an AI Academy to enhance employee skills and development [24]. - MetLife maintains a pay-for-performance philosophy linking employee compensation to individual and company performance [24]. Economic and Market Risks - MetLife's risk factors include economic conditions, interest rate fluctuations, and market volatility, which may adversely affect financial performance [172]. - The company faces interest rate risks that could impact profitability and investment returns, particularly during periods of rising rates [178]. - Changes in credit spreads and equity market volatility may affect MetLife's investment income and product revenues [183][184]. - Increased default rates on fixed income securities and mortgage loans may occur due to economic downturns and widening credit spreads, impacting cash flows [189]. Environmental and Regulatory Compliance - The company is subject to extensive environmental laws and regulations, which may impact its operations but are not expected to have a material adverse effect [150]. - The NAIC has adopted a standard for insurance companies to report climate-related risks, applicable to insurers with over $100 million in direct premium [131]. - In 2023, California established climate disclosure requirements for companies meeting revenue thresholds, with MetLife in compliance [134]. - The EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive requires companies to report on sustainability-related financial risks, with the first reports due in 2025 [135].

Summary of MetLife Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: MetLife - **Participants**: Michel Khalaf (President & CEO), John McCallion (Executive VP & CFO) Key Points New Frontier Strategy - MetLife introduced the "New Frontier" strategy in December, building on the previous "Next Horizon" strategy, which focused on execution pillars: focus, simplify, and differentiate [11][12] - The New Frontier strategy aims for responsible growth, targeting four key areas that currently contribute 80% of earnings: group benefits, retirement platforms, asset management, and high-growth markets (India, China, Mexico, Brazil) [13][15] Financial Targets - Return on Equity (ROE) target increased from 12-14% to 15-17% under the New Frontier strategy [18] - Cumulative cash flow target raised from $20 billion to $25 billion over the next five years [20] - Introduction of a new EPS growth target of double-digit growth over the five-year period [20] Group Benefits Segment - MetLife aims for a 4-7% growth rate in group benefits, leveraging its size and scale to drive growth [25][26] - The company added $6.6 billion to its group business during the last strategy period, with current PFOs close to $25 billion [25] - Trends supporting growth include broker consolidation, employers seeking fewer providers, and improved enrollment experiences for employees [26][29] Retirement Business - MetLife's pension risk transfer (PRT) market remains strong, with a pipeline estimated between $1 trillion to $2 trillion [45][46] - The company reported $6.4 billion in PRT premiums last year and has a healthy pipeline for future deals [46][48] - Japan is a significant market, contributing around $1 billion annually, with positive trends in wage inflation and consumer demand [50][51] Investment Management - MetLife's investment management business, currently at $700 billion AUM, targets $1 trillion, with recent acquisitions enhancing capabilities [55][58] - The acquisition of Pinebridge, a $100 billion asset manager, is expected to complement MetLife's existing strengths [58][60] Market Conditions and Challenges - The company anticipates FX headwinds of $150 million to $175 million for 2025 due to a strong dollar [78] - Despite these challenges, MetLife's diversification across geography, product, and channel is seen as a strength [78] Emerging Markets - MetLife is well-positioned in Brazil and India, with Brazil experiencing a democratization of financial services and India benefiting from a partnership with Punjab National Bank [71][72][74] - The company is the fastest-growing insurance provider in Brazil, leveraging partnerships with digital banks [73] Margin Outlook - Margins in the life insurance segment are expected to remain healthy, with a benefit ratio range of 84-89% [31][32] - Non-medical health margins are projected to stabilize, with a focus on efficiency and business mix [34][35] Conclusion - MetLife's strategic focus on growth, diversification, and market positioning in key segments and regions is expected to drive future success, despite facing some external economic challenges [16][78]

Group 1 - Insurance stocks experienced a significant rise from mid-2023 through much of the previous year, but the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK) has recently underperformed compared to the Financials sector [1] - The decline in the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF indicates a shift in market dynamics affecting the insurance industry [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of analyzing stock market sectors, ETFs, and economic data to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - It emphasizes the need for evidence-based narratives using empirical data to support investment decisions [1]