[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 通胀上行加快 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 通胀上行加快。1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，连续第二个月环比正增长；其中核心 CPI（不包含食品和能源）环比为 0.3%，属 6 个月以来最高，高于春节分布相近的 2015、2018 年 1 月。1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，属于 2022 年 5 月 以来高点。 据万得数据（下同），1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，持平前值。 1 月核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，高于前值的 0.2%，持平于 2023 年 1 月的 0.4%，属于 2025 年 8 月以来最高。春节 分布相近的 2015 年、2018 年，核心 CPI 环比均为 0.2%。 1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，持平于 2023 年 9 月，属 2022 年 5 月以来高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation is accelerating, with January CPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the second consecutive month of positive growth. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, the highest in six months, surpassing similar periods in 2015 and 2018. January PPI increased by 0.4%, reaching the highest point since May 2022 [5][6][7]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous value. Core CPI rose by 0.3%, higher than the previous value of 0.2% and equal to January 2023's 0.4%, marking the highest since August 2025 [6]. - January PPI increased by 0.4%, matching the previous month and reaching the highest level since May 2022. The base period adjustment and weight changes had a minor impact on the data, with an estimated effect of 0.06-0.08 percentage points on month-on-month growth rates [7][8]. Group 2: Price Increases in CPI - Notable month-on-month price increases in CPI include seasonal rises in tourism and service prices, with tourism prices up by 1.8% and service prices up by 0.2%. Specific increases include airfare (5.7%) and travel agency fees (2.0%) [2][8]. - The "CPI within PPI" category for household appliances continued to rise by 0.7%, with year-on-year growth increasing from 5.9% to 6.6%. Communication tools also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, with year-on-year growth at 1.3% [2][8]. - Pork prices experienced their first month-on-month increase in six months, rising by 1.2% in January [2]. Group 3: Price Decreases in CPI - Certain categories, such as alcoholic beverages and rental housing, continued to show month-on-month declines. These categories are significant for the capital market, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior and economic cycles [2][9][10]. Group 4: PPI Price Increases - In January, prices for globally priced non-ferrous metals rose significantly, with non-ferrous metal mining and smelting increasing by 5.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Other sectors, including cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production, also saw increases [3][14][15]. - The automotive manufacturing sector reported zero growth, marking the first month without a decline in seven months. Prices in the AI industry chain, particularly for computer communication electronics, rose by 0.5% [3][16]. Group 5: Simulated Deflation Index - The simulated deflation index showed a year-on-year decline from -0.28% to -0.44% due to the timing of the Spring Festival, despite a month-on-month CPI increase. The index is expected to improve in February, potentially returning to around -0.28% [3][16].

习近平总书记在省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班开班式上发表重要讲 话，系统阐述制定和实施五年规划的重大意义，围绕全面深刻准确领会和把握党的二十届四中全会战略 部署作出深入阐述，对着力提高党领导经济社会发展能力和水平提出明确要求。党的十八大以来，经 过"十二五""十三五""十四五"时期的接续发展，我们党成功推进和拓展了中国式现代化，第二个百年奋 斗目标新征程实现良好开局，中华民族伟大复兴势不可挡。在开班式上，习近平总书记用"五个坚持"总 结经验，指出"在制定实施五年规划的长期实践中，我们党创造积累了丰富经验，包括坚持党中央集中 统一领导，坚持从实际出发，坚持全国一盘棋，坚持发扬民主、集思广益，坚持规划法定原则等"。深 入学习领会习近平总书记的重要讲话精神，要准确把握和用好"五个坚持"的宝贵经验，科学谋划好、绘 制好新的发展蓝图，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步，续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇 章。 通过对经济社会发展的总体谋划，五年规划成为党中央把方向、谋大局、定政策、促改革的重要手段之 一，将党的主张有效转化为国家意志和全社会共同行动，激发全社会干事创业、创新创造活力。 坚持 ...

习近平总书记在省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班开班式上发表重要讲 话，系统阐述制定和实施五年规划的重大意义，围绕全面深刻准确领会和把握党的二十届四中全会战略 部署作出深入阐述，对着力提高党领导经济社会发展能力和水平提出明确要求。党的十八大以来，经 过"十二五""十三五""十四五"时期的接续发展，我们党成功推进和拓展了中国式现代化，第二个百年奋 斗目标新征程实现良好开局，中华民族伟大复兴势不可挡。在开班式上，习近平总书记用"五个坚持"总 结经验，指出"在制定实施五年规划的长期实践中，我们党创造积累了丰富经验，包括坚持党中央集中 统一领导，坚持从实际出发，坚持全国一盘棋，坚持发扬民主、集思广益，坚持规划法定原则等"。深 入学习领会习近平总书记的重要讲话精神，要准确把握和用好"五个坚持"的宝贵经验，科学谋划好、绘 制好新的发展蓝图，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步，续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇 章。 坚持党中央集中统一领导 习近平总书记指出："我们这么大一个党、这么大一个国家，如果党中央不能实行坚强有力的集中统一 领导，就会出现各自为政、自行其是的局面，那就什么事情也干不成。"坚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its spring rally from late December 2025, with a focus on large-cap stocks before the Lunar New Year and better performance in growth sectors supported by policy directions [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The performance expectations for Hong Kong stocks have significantly adjusted, with a slowdown in the downward revision of earnings forecasts since late December 2025 [1] - The average return of the Hang Seng Index during the spring rally over the past eleven years is 2.4%, with a weekly win rate of 70.8%, particularly strong in 2019, 2021, and 2023, averaging a 10.6% increase [2] - The upcoming earnings reports for Hong Kong stocks are expected to be concentrated from late March to early April, indicating a period of performance vacuum [1][2] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Short-term investment focus should be on three main lines: 1) "14th Five-Year Plan" policy directions including biomanufacturing, embodied intelligence, and 6G; 2) food delivery platforms and real estate benefiting from policy-driven expectations; 3) non-bank financials benefiting from the spring rally [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide long-term investment opportunities, with strategic emerging industries like new energy, new materials, and quantum technology likely to receive policy support [3] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The liquidity outlook for Hong Kong stocks is expected to improve as the market approaches the next peak of stock unlocks, with significant reductions in unlock amounts in January and February 2026 [1] - Historical data shows that net inflows from southbound trading in January and February account for an average of 19.3% and 27.9% of the annual total, respectively [2]

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the necessity of planned economic development to avoid the inherent contradictions and crises of capitalism, as highlighted by Marx and Engels [1] - Marx and Engels criticized the anarchic nature of capitalist production, emphasizing that without overall planning, economic crises are inevitable [1] - They proposed that a future society should have production means owned collectively, with a planned organization of production to ensure balanced economic development [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Communist Party has established a significant institutional advantage in planning, which has been refined through historical practices of revolution, construction, and reform [2] - Since 1953, China has implemented 14 five-year plans that have significantly contributed to economic development, national strength, and improved living standards [2] - Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of a sound macroeconomic governance system and the strategic role of national development planning, advocating for a people-centered approach and practical implementation of plans [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of China's five-year plans as a political advantage and a systematic approach to governance, showcasing the ability to adapt and implement strategies effectively in response to changing circumstances [1][2][4]. Group 1: Political Advantages and Governance - The five-year plans reflect the political advantages of the Chinese governance model, allowing for a systematic approach to economic and social development [1]. - China's planning system has received international acclaim for its decisiveness and effectiveness, establishing a robust framework for long-term development [1]. - The plans have evolved to address significant issues at different stages, ensuring continuity and forward-thinking strategies that avoid the pitfalls of policy inconsistency seen in multi-party systems [1][2]. Group 2: Institutional Strengths - The five-year plans demonstrate the institutional advantage of concentrating resources to achieve significant national goals, particularly in heavy industry and technological advancements [2]. - The plans facilitate a better balance between an effective market and a proactive government, addressing the complex relationship between the two [2]. - Since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan," the shift from "plan" to "planning" signifies a more flexible and responsive governance approach [2]. Group 3: Historical Commitment and Strategic Tasks - The five-year plans represent a historical commitment to long-term goals, marking milestones in China's journey towards national rejuvenation [3]. - The "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic tasks crucial for advancing Chinese-style modernization, emphasizing the need for effective measures to overcome challenges and enhance strengths [3]. - The plans are designed to ensure strategic initiative and development momentum, reinforcing the importance of sustained efforts over time [3]. Group 4: Leadership and Implementation - Leadership plays a critical role in the success of the five-year plans, with key figures acting as a guiding force for the entire party and society [4]. - The plans encourage broad participation and input from various stakeholders, ensuring alignment with national strategies and local needs [4]. - Effective implementation requires detailed planning, clear responsibilities, and a focus on high-quality outcomes, which are essential for realizing the ambitious goals set forth in the plans [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the political advantages and practical experiences of China's five-year planning system, highlighting its effectiveness in governance and development [1][2][4] Group 1: Political Advantages - The five-year planning system is recognized internationally as a powerful planning framework, showcasing China's ability to implement long-term strategies effectively [1] - The system has evolved to address significant issues at different stages of development, ensuring historical continuity and forward-looking strategies [1] Group 2: Institutional Advantages - The five-year planning system allows for the concentration of resources to tackle major projects, which has been crucial for foundational industrial development and technological advancements [2] - The system facilitates a better balance between an effective market and a proactive government, addressing the complex relationship between the two [2] Group 3: Historical Patience - The five-year plans serve as milestones in China's journey towards modernization and national rejuvenation, emphasizing the importance of continuity and strategic execution [3] - Each plan builds upon the previous one, ensuring that strategic tasks are effectively implemented to support modernization efforts [3] Group 4: Leadership and Implementation - The role of leadership is critical in the successful implementation of the five-year plans, with a focus on aligning local initiatives with national strategies [4] - Engaging with societal expectations and local conditions is essential for the effective execution of planning, ensuring that projects meet public needs and leverage regional advantages [4]

习近平总书记出席开班式，发表重要讲话，深刻阐释"十五五"时期经济社会发展重大理论和实践问 题，对学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神进行再动员再部署。 面向"关键少数"的开局之年第一课，谆谆教诲、切切要求，统一思想、凝心聚力，为新征程再出发 指明方向，为"十五五"开新局落子定盘。 坚定制度自信——"制定和实施五年规划是我们党治国理政一条重要经验，是中国特色社会主义制 度一个重要政治优势" 1月20日，一场冬雪过后，位于北京西郊的中央党校校园银装素裹，一排排苍松翠柏无惧严寒、虬 枝凝碧，在冬的凛冽中呈现昂扬勃发的英姿。 新华社北京1月24日电 题：创造经得起实践和历史检验的业绩——省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党 的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班侧记 新华社记者杨维汉、张研 所当乘者势也，不可失者时也。"十五五"开局之年，1月20日，省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的 二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班在中央党校（国家行政学院）开班。 中央党校礼堂，这座陕北窑洞风格的建筑质朴庄重。礼堂内暖意融融，学员们自天南海北而来。习 近平总书记的讲话，从往昔谈到今朝。 "新中国成立以来，我国已经制定和实施了14个五年规划（计划），我国从积贫积弱 ...

所当乘者势也，不可失者时也。"十五五"开局之年，1月20日，省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的 二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班在中央党校（国家行政学院）开班。 习近平总书记出席开班式，发表重要讲话，深刻阐释"十五五"时期经济社会发展重大理论和实践 问题，对学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神进行再动员再部署。 面向"关键少数"的开局之年第一课，谆谆教诲、切切要求，统一思想、凝心聚力，为新征程再出 发指明方向，为"十五五"开新局落子定盘。 坚定制度自信——"制定和实施五年规划是我们党治国理政一条重要经验，是中国特色社会主义制 度一个重要政治优势" 1月20日，一场冬雪过后，位于北京西郊的中央党校校园银装素裹，一排排苍松翠柏无惧严寒、虬 枝凝碧，在冬的凛冽中呈现昂扬勃发的英姿。 中央党校礼堂，这座陕北窑洞风格的建筑质朴庄重。礼堂内暖意融融，学员们自天南海北而来。 习近平总书记的讲话，从往昔谈到今朝。 "新中国成立以来，我国已经制定和实施了14个五年规划（计划），我国从积贫积弱的农业国发展 成为世界第二大经济体并向全面建成社会主义现代化强国目标迈进，这一系列五年规划在其中发 挥了重要作用。" 拓宽观察的视野，更能看到历史的纵深 ...