Company Performance - Strategy (MSTR) shares increased by 2.23% to $163.81, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.16% on the same day [1] - Over the last month, the company's shares have risen by 1.49%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 experienced losses of 0.5% and 0.42%, respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings report for Strategy is scheduled for February 5, 2026, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $46.02, indicating a significant increase of 1538.13% from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is estimated at $119.6 million, reflecting a slight decline of 0.91% compared to the prior-year quarter [2] Full Year Estimates - For the full year, Zacks Consensus Estimates project an EPS of $78.04 and revenue of $473.1 million, showing increases of 1261.31% and no change, respectively, from the previous year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Strategy are important indicators of near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Strategy is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 3.11, which is significantly lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 11.46 [6] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 100, placing it in the top 41% of over 250 industries [6] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has a strong historical performance, with 1 stocks averaging an annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - Currently, Strategy holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [5]

Corporate Rebranding - KindlyMD, Inc. has changed its corporate name to Nakamoto Inc. to align its identity with its long-term strategy in the Bitcoin ecosystem [1] Industry Trends - In 2025, many companies transitioned to digital assets, following the model established by MicroStrategy, which began accumulating Bitcoin during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - The trend of companies building digital asset treasuries (DATs) was popularized by MicroStrategy, leading others, including KindlyMD, to follow suit [3] Mergers and Acquisitions - KindlyMD merged with Nakamoto Holdings, marking a significant crossover between traditional enterprises and the digital asset ecosystem [4] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced significant price fluctuations, particularly after political events, such as Donald Trump's return to the White House and subsequent tariff threats, which caused a flash crash [5][6] - The volatility of Bitcoin has led to concerns about delisting from stock indices, as seen with MicroStrategy facing threats from MSCI due to its Bitcoin holdings [6][7]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency and Blockchain - RIOX ETF provides 2x long daily price performance of Riot Platforms, which saw over 52% weekly gains after announcing Bitcoin sales to fund a $96 million land acquisition in Texas [1] - MSTX ETF offers 2x leveraged exposure to MicroStrategy, whose shares surged as the crypto market rallied and Vanguard invested $505 million in the company, marking a significant institutional adoption milestone [4] - ETHU ETF aims for 2x daily price movements of Ether, achieving over 14% weekly gains due to record staking levels and a $200 million investment from BitMine into Beast Industries [11] Group 2: Technology and AI - AMDL ETF provides 2x leveraged exposure to AMD, which gained over 29% weekly as the company transitions into a full-stack AI powerhouse with its new Helios rack-scale platform [2] - SMCX ETF delivers 2x leveraged exposure to Super Micro Computer, whose stock rose following strong earnings from TSMC, indicating increased demand for high-performance servers [7] Group 3: Precious Metals - AGQ ETF offers 2x daily long leverage to Silver bullion, returning approximately 24% last week as silver prices reached all-time highs following tariff threats from President Trump [3] - GDXU ETF provides 3x exposure to gold miners, returning over 15% last week amid rising gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [8] Group 4: Defense Sector - DFEN ETF aims to triple the daily return of defense industry stocks, achieving over 14% weekly gains driven by proposed increases in the U.S. military budget amid heightened geopolitical tensions [10] Group 5: E-commerce - BABX ETF provides 2x leveraged exposure to Alibaba, which saw approximately 19% weekly gains as its AI models gained popularity and new regulations stabilized margins for its quick commerce division [5]

Core Viewpoint - TD Cowen maintains a $440 price target for Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), indicating a 170% upside from the January 21 share price of $162 [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - Strategy raised $1.25 billion in early January to acquire an additional 13,627 bitcoins, accelerating its accumulation strategy during the recent price dip [1] - As of the report, the company held 687,410 bitcoins, which increased to over 700,000 bitcoins this week [2] - The treasury operation is projected to generate $6.315 billion in value for shareholders by 2026, with an expectation to accelerate Bitcoin acquisition in the second half of the year as prices rise [4] Group 2: Market Outlook and Projections - TD Cowen views the recent slump in Bitcoin prices as a temporary depression, allowing Strategy to lower its average cost basis [2] - The $440 price target relies on a 5x multiple of projected 2026 Bitcoin value gains, assuming Bitcoin recovers to approximately $177,000 by December 2026 [3] - A cryptocurrency yield of 7.1% is projected for 2026, a decrease from prior forecasts due to higher equity issuance [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Higher Bitcoin prices are expected to drive both the premium and yield higher, with opportunities identified across the company's capital structure, particularly within its five tranches of preferred stock [5] - Senior preferred shares trade at a discount and offer a 9.6% implied yield, with potential for capital appreciation if yields compress to 7.6% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Strategy's stock (MSTR) does not require trading at a bitcoin premium to be a successful investment, with a price target of $440 set by TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza, nearly triple the recent close of $160 [1] Group 1: Investment Thesis - The investment case for Strategy is based on its ability to grow bitcoin holdings per share, even during low market sentiment [1] - Strategy has a history of navigating market downturns by increasing asset coverage through preferred equity [2] - The company recently issued over $2.1 billion in common and preferred stock, using the proceeds to acquire 22,305 BTC, marking its largest weekly acquisition since November 2024 [2] Group 2: Financial Structure and Leverage - Strategy's financial structure provides a long-term advantage by issuing variable- and convertible-preferred stock, allowing for leverage without traditional debt [3] - This approach enables the company to acquire more bitcoin without significantly diluting existing shareholders [3] Group 3: Preferred Shares and Returns - Investors may find value in the firm's preferred shares, particularly the STRF class, which yields approximately 9.6% annually, expected to compress to 7.9% as shares appreciate [4] - With a fixed 10% dividend, the one-year return on preferred shares could reach 30% [4] Group 4: Bitcoin Holdings - Strategy currently holds 709,715 BTC, significantly surpassing any other public company [5] - The equity-driven approach positions Strategy to continue accumulating bitcoin while prices remain under pressure, providing leveraged upside potential for investors [5]

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack. GM! Today’s top news: Crypto majors very red and down 3-6% on day; BTC at $88,200 Saylor’s Strategy bought 9-month high $2.13B in BTC last week Delaware Life added BTC to its insurane product via IBIT Solana Mobile’s SKR token debuted at $120M FDV Infinex announced its TGE plans aiming for Jan 3 ...

Core Insights - Strategy Inc. (MSTR), formerly known as MicroStrategy, operates as a unique entity that combines investments in Bitcoin (BTC) and artificial intelligence (AI) through its analytics software business [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is primarily recognized as a Bitcoin treasury company, indicating a significant focus on holding and managing Bitcoin assets [1] - Strategy Inc. also maintains its original analytics software business, which contributes to its diversified revenue streams [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach emphasizes GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price) and turnaround stocks, highlighting a focus on valuation as a key component of stock selection [1] - The strategy aims to identify stocks with limited downside potential and significant upside opportunities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic investment philosophy [1]

Core Insights - Strategy Inc. sold $2.1 billion worth of stock and converted it into 22,305 Bitcoin, aligning with chairman Michael Saylor's strategy [1][3] Group 1: Purchase Details - The average purchase price for Bitcoin was $95,284, which is approximately 25% above the company's overall cost basis [2] - As of January 19, Strategy Inc. holds a total of 709,715 BTC, making it one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries globally [3] - The cumulative expenditure for acquiring these Bitcoin holdings amounts to $53.92 billion, with an average purchase price of $75,979 per Bitcoin [3] Group 2: Fundraising Mechanism - The company raised $2.125 billion through the sale of approximately 2.95 million shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock and over 10.4 million shares of Class A common stock [5][6] - The net proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock were $1.83 billion after fees and commissions [6] Group 3: Recent Transactions - In January, the company made three significant Bitcoin purchases: 1,283 BTC for $115.97 million, 13,627 BTC for $1.25 billion, and 22,305 BTC for $2.13 billion [9]

Group 1 - The decline in Bitcoin prices has negatively impacted cryptocurrency-related stocks, with significant drops observed in companies like Strategy, SharpLink Gaming, and MARA Holdings, which fell more than the broader market [1][2] - Bitcoin's price fell below $90,000, reaching a low of $89,281, while Ethereum dropped below $3,000, leading to increased trading activity with a 14% rise in Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume to $68.6 billion [1] - The market is experiencing heightened volatility due to the recent geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to Trump's tariff proposals, which add pressure to the already fragile market conditions [2] Group 2 - Strategy announced a $2.1 billion investment to increase its Bitcoin holdings, yet its stock price fell over 6% to $160.23 after opening [2] - SharpLink Gaming's stock dropped by 9.59% to $9.945, despite holding approximately $2.4 billion in Ethereum, which the CEO referred to as "permanent capital" [2] - MARA Holdings' stock decreased by 8.71% to $10.37, following a recent agreement with MPLX for natural gas supply to its Texas data center [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the decline in Bitcoin prices tends to have a more pronounced effect on mining companies' stock prices, indicating that the current drop is more of a consolidation phase rather than a free-fall [3] - The psychological support level at $90,000 is critical; failure to maintain this level could lead to a potential test of the $85,000 mark [3]

Group 1 - The decline in Bitcoin prices has negatively impacted cryptocurrency-related stocks, with significant drops observed in companies like Strategy, SharpLink Gaming, and MARA Holdings, which fell more than the broader market [1][2] - Bitcoin's price fell below $90,000, reaching a low of $89,281, while Ethereum dropped below $3,000, leading to increased trading activity with a 14% rise in Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume to $68.6 billion [1] - The market is also reacting to geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to tariffs proposed by former President Trump, which adds pressure to the already volatile environment [2] Group 2 - Strategy announced a $2.1 billion investment in Bitcoin but still saw its stock price drop over 6% to close at $160.23 [2] - SharpLink Gaming's stock fell by 9.59% to $9.945, despite holding approximately $2.4 billion in Ethereum, which the CEO described as "permanent capital" [2] - MARA Holdings experienced an 8.71% decline in stock price to $10.37, despite plans to supply natural gas for its Texas data center [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the drop in Bitcoin prices tends to have a more significant impact on mining companies' stock prices, indicating that the current decline may not signal a "free-fall" but rather a consolidation phase [3] - The psychological support level at $90,000 is crucial, as failure to maintain this level could lead to a potential test of the $85,000 mark [3]