Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack. GM! Today’s top news: Crypto majors very red and down 3-6% on day; BTC at $88,200 Saylor’s Strategy bought 9-month high $2.13B in BTC last week Delaware Life added BTC to its insurane product via IBIT Solana Mobile’s SKR token debuted at $120M FDV Infinex announced its TGE plans aiming for Jan 3 ...

Core Insights - Strategy Inc. (MSTR), formerly known as MicroStrategy, operates as a unique entity that combines investments in Bitcoin (BTC) and artificial intelligence (AI) through its analytics software business [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is primarily recognized as a Bitcoin treasury company, indicating a significant focus on holding and managing Bitcoin assets [1] - Strategy Inc. also maintains its original analytics software business, which contributes to its diversified revenue streams [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach emphasizes GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price) and turnaround stocks, highlighting a focus on valuation as a key component of stock selection [1] - The strategy aims to identify stocks with limited downside potential and significant upside opportunities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic investment philosophy [1]

Core Insights - Strategy Inc. sold $2.1 billion worth of stock and converted it into 22,305 Bitcoin, aligning with chairman Michael Saylor's strategy [1][3] Group 1: Purchase Details - The average purchase price for Bitcoin was $95,284, which is approximately 25% above the company's overall cost basis [2] - As of January 19, Strategy Inc. holds a total of 709,715 BTC, making it one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries globally [3] - The cumulative expenditure for acquiring these Bitcoin holdings amounts to $53.92 billion, with an average purchase price of $75,979 per Bitcoin [3] Group 2: Fundraising Mechanism - The company raised $2.125 billion through the sale of approximately 2.95 million shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock and over 10.4 million shares of Class A common stock [5][6] - The net proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock were $1.83 billion after fees and commissions [6] Group 3: Recent Transactions - In January, the company made three significant Bitcoin purchases: 1,283 BTC for $115.97 million, 13,627 BTC for $1.25 billion, and 22,305 BTC for $2.13 billion [9]

Group 1 - The decline in Bitcoin prices has negatively impacted cryptocurrency-related stocks, with significant drops observed in companies like Strategy, SharpLink Gaming, and MARA Holdings, which fell more than the broader market [1][2] - Bitcoin's price fell below $90,000, reaching a low of $89,281, while Ethereum dropped below $3,000, leading to increased trading activity with a 14% rise in Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume to $68.6 billion [1] - The market is experiencing heightened volatility due to the recent geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to Trump's tariff proposals, which add pressure to the already fragile market conditions [2] Group 2 - Strategy announced a $2.1 billion investment to increase its Bitcoin holdings, yet its stock price fell over 6% to $160.23 after opening [2] - SharpLink Gaming's stock dropped by 9.59% to $9.945, despite holding approximately $2.4 billion in Ethereum, which the CEO referred to as "permanent capital" [2] - MARA Holdings' stock decreased by 8.71% to $10.37, following a recent agreement with MPLX for natural gas supply to its Texas data center [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the decline in Bitcoin prices tends to have a more pronounced effect on mining companies' stock prices, indicating that the current drop is more of a consolidation phase rather than a free-fall [3] - The psychological support level at $90,000 is critical; failure to maintain this level could lead to a potential test of the $85,000 mark [3]

Group 1 - The decline in Bitcoin prices has negatively impacted cryptocurrency-related stocks, with significant drops observed in companies like Strategy, SharpLink Gaming, and MARA Holdings, which fell more than the broader market [1][2] - Bitcoin's price fell below $90,000, reaching a low of $89,281, while Ethereum dropped below $3,000, leading to increased trading activity with a 14% rise in Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume to $68.6 billion [1] - The market is also reacting to geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to tariffs proposed by former President Trump, which adds pressure to the already volatile environment [2] Group 2 - Strategy announced a $2.1 billion investment in Bitcoin but still saw its stock price drop over 6% to close at $160.23 [2] - SharpLink Gaming's stock fell by 9.59% to $9.945, despite holding approximately $2.4 billion in Ethereum, which the CEO described as "permanent capital" [2] - MARA Holdings experienced an 8.71% decline in stock price to $10.37, despite plans to supply natural gas for its Texas data center [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the drop in Bitcoin prices tends to have a more significant impact on mining companies' stock prices, indicating that the current decline may not signal a "free-fall" but rather a consolidation phase [3] - The psychological support level at $90,000 is crucial, as failure to maintain this level could lead to a potential test of the $85,000 mark [3]

Core Insights - Insider transactions, particularly purchases, are closely monitored by investors as they can indicate a positive long-term outlook for companies [1][9] Micron (MU) - Micron shares have surged nearly 250% over the past year, driven by strong demand related to AI [3] - A director recently purchased approximately 11,600 shares for just under $4 million, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future [3] - The latest financial results showed sales growth exceeding 50% year-over-year, following previous growth rates of 46% and 36% in the last two quarters [4] MicroStrategy (MSTR) - MicroStrategy shares are highly volatile due to significant exposure to Bitcoin, with fluctuations ranging from a 15% increase to a 62% decrease over the past year [8] - An insider acquired 5,000 shares for nearly $800,000, indicating continued confidence despite volatility [8] - The company holds approximately 710,000 BTC, with an average acquisition cost of around $76,000 compared to Bitcoin's current price of approximately $89,000 [10] APi Group (APG) - APi Group shares have outperformed the market, gaining nearly 70% over the past year due to strong demand trends [11] - A director bought 3,000 shares for just under $120,000, nearly doubling their position [11] - For Q3 FY25, APG reported sales of $2.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14.2%, with adjusted EPS of $0.41, up 20.6% year-over-year [12]

Core Insights - United Airlines reported better-than-expected profits for the holiday quarter, indicating that its strategy focused on loyal fliers is yielding positive results [1] - The company noted that strong momentum has continued into the new year, suggesting ongoing positive performance [1] Financial Performance - The holiday quarter profits exceeded expectations, reflecting effective operational strategies [1] - The emphasis on attracting and retaining loyal customers has contributed significantly to the financial results [1]

Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions are driving investors towards gold as a hedge, while bitcoin is struggling to maintain its status as a safe-haven asset [1][6] - Bitcoin's price has fallen below $90,000, failing to reclaim the $100,000 mark, and related stocks have also seen declines [2][6] - The debate continues over bitcoin's role in investment portfolios, with some experts questioning its effectiveness as a hedge against geopolitical risks [3][4] Geopolitical Impact - The CBOE Volatility Index surged, indicating increased market fear following President Trump's comments about Greenland, which negatively impacted bitcoin prices [1] - Veteran investors, including Ray Dalio, have suggested gold and bitcoin as protective assets, but recent performance raises doubts about bitcoin's role [3][4] Bitcoin vs. Gold - Bitcoin is currently underperforming compared to gold, which is trading at all-time highs, leading to discussions about its classification as a risk asset versus a hedge [4][6] - A study from Duke University indicates that while gold and bitcoin were correlated, bitcoin's unique risks make it unlikely to replace gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that investors should consider holding both gold and bitcoin, depending on market conditions, rather than viewing them as mutually exclusive [5] - The potential passing of the Clarity Act, aimed at creating a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, could serve as a catalyst for bitcoin price recovery, although progress on this legislation has stalled [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) made a significant Bitcoin purchase of 22,305 Bitcoin for approximately $2.13 billion, marking its largest acquisition since November 2024, despite Bitcoin's price dropping below $90,000 shortly after the purchase [1][2][5]. Group 1: Bitcoin Purchase Details - The recent acquisition increased Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings to 709,715 [2]. - The average price paid per Bitcoin was $95,284, while Bitcoin was trading near $92,500 at the time of purchase [5]. - The company's shares fell by over 7% following the announcement of the acquisition [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment - Despite the scale of the purchase, the market reaction was muted, with shares declining 7.39% to $160.87 [3]. - The company's strategy of timing its Bitcoin purchases has faced scrutiny, as it has not effectively capitalized on short-term price declines [4][5]. - Ongoing concerns about the company's capital allocation decisions and the potential for a bear market have heightened uncertainty among investors [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Accumulation Strategy - In December, the company spent nearly $1 billion to acquire 10,624 Bitcoin, raising questions about its entry-point strategy as it purchased at elevated price levels [6]. - The continued accumulation of Bitcoin is intended to signal confidence in its long-term prospects, but it has not alleviated short-term investor concerns [8].

Core Viewpoint - Strategy's stock is highly correlated to Bitcoin, but its returns are often more extreme, leading to significant volatility in its performance compared to the cryptocurrency [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Strategy's share price fell by 48% last year, while Bitcoin's value decreased by about 5% [1][2]. - In 2024, Strategy's stock experienced a substantial rally, rising 359%, while Bitcoin increased by over 119% [4]. - As of January 19, Strategy's year-to-date gain was 5.5%, compared to Bitcoin's increase of less than 1% [5]. Group 2: Financial Impact of Digital Assets - Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, and its financial performance is heavily influenced by unrealized gains and losses from digital assets [2][6]. - In the most recent quarter, Strategy reported an unrealized gain on digital assets of $3.9 billion, overshadowing its revenue of $129 million [6]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The company defines itself as "the world's first Bitcoin treasury company," focusing on accumulating Bitcoin, making its stock a speculative investment [7]. - Investing in Strategy is deemed appropriate for high-risk tolerance crypto investors, as its revenue from enterprise analytics software has been declining [5][7]. - The stock is considered overvalued at a market cap of $50 billion, especially given its lack of competitive advantage and underwhelming business performance [10].