Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **A-share market in China** and its sentiment amid ongoing **geopolitical uncertainties**. The sentiment has continued to decline, impacting the overall market outlook. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment Decline**: The weighted **MSASI** (Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator) fell by **5 percentage points** to **41%** as of March 25, 2026, indicating a negative shift in investor sentiment compared to the previous cycle [2][6][13]. 2. **Turnover Trends**: Daily turnover for **ChiNext** increased by **3%** to **RMB 559 billion**, while A-shares rose by **7%** to **RMB 2,181 billion**. However, equity futures open interest decreased by **12%** to **RMB 448 billion** [2][3]. 3. **Inflation Forecasts**: The **China Economic team** revised the 2026 inflation forecasts upward, expecting a rebound in **PPI** (Producer Price Index) to turn positive by mid-2026 due to rising energy and commodity costs. However, this inflation is not expected to drive sustained demand growth [4][13]. 4. **Sector Preferences**: The report emphasizes a preference for **upstream and real asset-linked sectors** such as **Materials, Energy, selected Industrials, and Semiconductors**. The **Energy sector** was upgraded from equal-weight to overweight due to improved market dynamics [14][15]. 5. **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: There is a noted pressure on demand despite nominal price increases. A supply-side-driven price rebound may stall without a corresponding recovery in demand, especially as China faces a global macroeconomic slowdown [15]. 6. **Earnings Challenges**: Major index component companies are experiencing challenges in earnings and return on equity (ROE), particularly in the **Internet/e-commerce sector**, which is heavily represented in the MSCI China index and has been underperforming [15]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Investor Behavior**: The **30-day RSI** (Relative Strength Index) declined by **6%** over the reporting period, indicating weakening momentum in the market [2]. 2. **Net Inflows**: There was a net inflow of **US$4 billion** in southbound trading during March 19-25, contributing to year-to-date net inflows of **US$25.5 billion** [3]. 3. **Earnings Revision Breadth**: The consensus earnings revision breadth remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [2]. 4. **Geopolitical Sensitivity**: The A-share market is viewed as less sensitive to geopolitical uncertainties compared to offshore markets, which supports the preference for A-shares [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the A-share market, investor sentiment, sector preferences, and macroeconomic factors influencing the market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - SThree's Q1 performance for FY '26 aligns with expectations, showing stabilization and improved productivity despite macroeconomic challenges [2][3]. Group Performance - Q1 performance is consistent with the outlook shared during the full year results, indicating ongoing momentum in the U.S.A. and Japan [2]. - There is a significant year-on-year improvement in the rate of decline in group net fees, attributed to the conclusion of a contract renewal period and encouraging new business performance [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company has achieved higher productivity and improved operational efficiency with a reduced headcount, resulting in more placements per employee [3]. - This marks the strongest Q1 performance since FY 2022, reflecting the successful implementation of productivity initiatives [3]. Market Context - The performance occurs amid ongoing macroeconomic volatility, including geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological changes, which are influencing business priorities and investment decisions [4]. - Organizations are increasingly seeking partners to address evolving workforce needs in response to these macroeconomic factors [4].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 has experienced a third consecutive week of declines, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - Current market levels are just below 6700 and above the 200-day moving average, suggesting that a capitulation phase has not yet occurred [3] - Investors are advised to create a shopping list of undervalued assets in anticipation of a market recovery [4] Oil Market Insights - Brent crude oil prices have recently surpassed $100, driven by volatility and thin liquidity in the market [5] - The expectation is not for sustained prices above $100, but rather for a range of $85 to $95 per barrel, with potential impacts on inflation and consumer sentiment [6] Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is already under pressure, and rising oil prices are expected to exacerbate this situation, affecting mortgage rates and consumer spending [12] - There has been a significant pullback in certain sectors, with average drawdowns in double digits, indicating that many assets are currently on sale [7] Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing conflict in Iran introduces significant uncertainty, making it difficult for investors to determine the right time to enter the market [10] - The war's impact on oil infrastructure and production levels remains a critical concern for market stability [10] Interest Rate Trends - Since the outbreak of the war, interest rates have risen by approximately one-third of a percentage point across the yield curve, affecting both equities and bonds [11] Private Credit Market - The private credit market has seen elevated redemption requests, with historical data suggesting it may take about a year to return to normal redemption levels [16] - The 5% redemption limit in private credit funds is crucial for maintaining liquidity and should not be viewed as a negative aspect of these investments [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Lufthansa's financial performance for the fiscal year 2025 exceeded expectations due to stricter financial management and fleet optimization, leading to effective cost control and profit maximization [1] - In 2025, Lufthansa reported revenues of €42.5 billion (approximately $49.34 billion), a year-on-year increase of 5%, and an operating profit of €3.96 billion, also reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [1] - The operating profit margin improved from 4.4% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025, while the adjusted EBIT reached €1.96 billion, marking a 19% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit for the period was €1.34 billion, showing a 3% decline year-on-year [1] - Lufthansa's passenger volume for 2025 was 135 million, a 3% increase from 2024, with a slight rise in seat occupancy rate from 83.1% to 83.2% [1] - The company aims to restore its operating profit margin to 8%-10% between 2028 and 2030, up from 4.4% in 2024, although recent strike events pose challenges to recovering profit losses [1] Group 2 - The company indicated that geopolitical uncertainties have made the outlook for 2026 "unclear," but it expects a 4% increase in capacity along with revenue and profit margin growth for that year [2] - Lufthansa announced a proposed dividend of €0.33 per share, representing a 10% increase from the previous year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long positions are recommended for holding [1]. - Silver: Caution is advised when chasing higher prices [1]. - Copper: Long positions are recommended for holding, with partial take - profit at high prices [1]. - Zinc: Cautiously bullish, waiting for more macro - guidance [1]. - Lead: Rebound is under pressure [1]. - Tin: Bullish in the short - term [1]. - Aluminum: Rebound in the short - term [1]. - Nickel: Rebound is under pressure [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Rebound, light - position trial long [1]. - Polysilicon: Under pressure, cautious participation [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, long positions are recommended for holding [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical negotiations and global economic conditions support the long - term upward trend of gold. Silver's industrial demand is growing, but short - term participation is difficult. The divergence in the US - Iran negotiations provides support for precious metals. Long - term gold prices are expected to rise, with a long - term target price of $4500 per ounce by JP Morgan and potentially reaching $6000 in extreme scenarios [1][3]. - **Base Metals**: The copper market is expected to be bullish in the short - term as the peak consumption season approaches, but there are risks of a pullback after the macro - sentiment fades. The zinc market has weak supply and demand, and inventory accumulation restricts upward space. The aluminum market has inventory pressure, and short - term rebound is limited. The nickel market has a weak reality in the industry chain, and the rebound is under pressure [1]. - **New Energy Metals**: The lithium carbonate market is bullish in the short - term due to supply shortages and increased demand for replenishment. 3. Summary of Each Variety Gold - **Core View**: Hold long positions. Geopolitical negotiations are inconclusive, and there are uncertainties in the US tariffs and geopolitics. The Japanese government may bring potential turmoil to the capital market, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE gold is at 1146.48, down 0.40% from the previous value; COMEX gold is at 5202, up 0.34% from the previous value and 3.71% from last week. Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.43 tons to 1097.62 tons [2]. Silver - **Core View**: Be cautious when chasing higher prices. The industrial demand for silver is increasing, but short - term participation is challenging. Pay attention to the risk - reward ratio [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE silver is at 22572, down 1.98% from the previous value; COMEX silver is at 89, down 1.11% from the previous value and up 13.29% from last week [2]. Copper - **Core View**: Hold long positions, with partial take - profit at high prices. As the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season and the National Two Sessions approach, copper prices are expected to be bullish in the short - term, but beware of a pullback after the macro - sentiment fades. The long - term outlook for copper remains positive [1]. - **Market Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract is 102550 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The total social inventory of copper is 53.17 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons from the previous day [5]. Zinc - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish. The supply and demand of zinc are weak, and inventory accumulation restricts upward space. Pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm and wait for more macro - guidance [1]. - **Market Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract is 24570 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The SMM seven - region social inventory is 21.99 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons from the previous day [8]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Rebound in the short - term. The current cost of alumina is low, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased more than expected during the off - season. The start - up of downstream enterprises is gradually recovering [1]. - **Market Data**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 23845 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The SMM aluminum ingot social inventory is 115.7 million tons, an increase of 26.5 million tons from the previous day, a 29.71% increase [11]. Nickel - **Core View**: The rebound is under pressure. Indonesia has confirmed a reduction in nickel ore production quotas in 2026. China's high nickel inventory and weak consumption continue, and the downstream stainless - steel inventory continues to accumulate [1]. - **Market Data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract is 141040 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day. The SMM stainless - steel social inventory is 1016100 tons, an increase of 121600 tons from the previous day, a 13.59% increase [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bullish. The total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and production has increased. Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports has exacerbated the short - term supply shortage [1]. - **Market Data**: The price of the main contract LC2605 is 173,660 yuan/ton, up 4.31% from the previous value. The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,531 tons to 102,932 tons [19].

Group 1 - Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates next year rather than raise them, as indicated by the significant inversion in the SOFR futures spread, reflecting a shift in expectations regarding the central bank's monetary policy [1] - German commercial bank analysts suggest that geopolitical concerns, tariff uncertainties, and favorable capital flow patterns will continue to support German and other Eurozone sovereign bonds, with the German 10-year bond yield testing below 2.7% [1] - The European rate market is approaching excessive expansion levels, driven by risk-averse sentiment in the stock market and geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Iran, which are supporting the safe-haven value of bonds [2] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the strength of the Thai baht may have influenced the Bank of Thailand's unexpected decision to cut interest rates, with the baht appreciating by 1.8% this year [2] - There are ongoing uncertainties regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike path, with the yen continuing to consolidate against other G10 and Asian currencies amid concerns expressed by the Japanese Prime Minister regarding further rate increases [2] - Australia's inflation rate exceeding targets may necessitate further tightening of policies by the Reserve Bank of Australia [2]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is creating new momentum for the gold market, with potential for gold prices to reach historical highs if tensions escalate [2][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Predictions - According to Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah, if the confrontation between the U.S. government and Iran escalates, gold prices could rise by 15% due to increased safe-haven demand [2][8]. - Dahdah estimates that gold prices could reach between $5,500 and $5,800 per ounce within two weeks following an attack, as the market adjusts to the situation [2][8]. - As of the latest report, spot gold has surpassed $5,200 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.13% [3][9]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The report indicates that the Trump administration is likely to follow a limited action approach, focusing on removing high-level Iranian figures while maintaining the regime structure, similar to its strategy in Venezuela [4][9]. - President Trump has expressed concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions, suggesting that military action could be considered if negotiations fail, although he prefers to reach an agreement [10][11]. - Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Zarif, have stated that they will not pursue nuclear weapons, emphasizing the need for diplomatic solutions [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence in international precious metal futures prices, with gold futures declining while silver futures increased [1][3] - The New York Commodity Exchange reported that the main gold futures contract fell by 1.25%, closing at $5160.50 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.57%, closing at $87.07 per ounce [1] - Spot gold prices experienced a significant drop, retreating over $100 from a high of around $5250, ultimately closing at $5144 [1] Group 2 - Market analysts noted that signals from Federal Reserve officials to maintain high interest rates have cooled expectations for rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar assets and weakening gold's safe-haven demand [3] - The dollar index fluctuated around 97.87, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.0350% [3] - DBS Bank has significantly raised its long-term gold price forecasts, setting target prices of $5300 and $6250 per ounce for the first and second halves of 2026, respectively, and predicting a potential price of $8060 per ounce by 2030 [3] - The bank believes that ongoing purchases of gold by central banks provide structural support, as these purchases are less sensitive to price fluctuations compared to other investment demands [3] - The article highlights that gold prices surged to a historical high of $5595 per ounce at the beginning of the year but subsequently fell over 15% due to the nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating active speculative movements in the precious metals market amid macroeconomic policy risks and geopolitical uncertainties [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market is experiencing a significant disconnect from international prices, leading to a potential price adjustment upon reopening after the holiday [3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Domestic gold prices are currently at 1108.5 yuan per gram, while international prices have fluctuated nearly $200 per ounce recently, indicating a substantial price gap [3][6]. - The reopening of the domestic market on February 20 is expected to result in either a sharp increase or decrease in gold prices to align with international trends, leading to heightened volatility [3][6]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The first major influence on gold prices is the U.S. Federal Reserve, with recent employment and CPI data dampening expectations for quick interest rate cuts, causing market predictions for a March rate cut to drop from over 20% to about 5.9% [5][6]. - The second influence is the ongoing demand from global central banks, which have been net buyers of gold for 16 consecutive years, with significant purchases continuing despite a slight decrease in volume [8][10]. - The third factor is geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which drives safe-haven demand for gold [12][14]. Group 3: Market Behavior - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with prices recently reaching a peak of $5600 before dropping over 20% the next day, indicating a shift from a traditional safe-haven asset to a high-volatility speculative instrument [14][16]. - The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates is weakening, suggesting a reevaluation of gold's underlying value as it regains its historical monetary attributes [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Gold is increasingly viewed as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios, with recommendations suggesting a 5% to 10% allocation of total financial assets to gold [16]. - For investment purposes, gold ETFs and investment bars are considered more cost-effective and convenient compared to purchasing jewelry, which includes additional craftsmanship and brand premiums [16].

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold and silver prices fluctuating dramatically, leading to mixed sentiments among investors regarding future buying opportunities [5][12]. Price Fluctuations - Gold prices reached a peak of nearly $5600 per ounce on January 29, 2026, but fell below $4500 per ounce just two days later, marking a volatility of over 20% within three trading days [5]. - Silver prices also saw extreme fluctuations, hitting a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29 before plummeting by 26% the following day, currently trading below $80 per ounce [5]. Investor Sentiment - Many investors are expressing concerns that gold is no longer a safe-haven asset and that silver may be experiencing a bubble, prompting questions about the future direction of precious metal prices [5]. - Despite recent price drops, some investors are taking advantage of lower prices to buy gold, indicating a strong buying interest among those who prefer gold as a long-term store of value [9][12]. Market Analysis - Experts suggest that factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing central bank purchases are providing support for precious metal prices [6]. - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $6200 per ounce, citing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions as key drivers [12]. - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could rise to $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 and further to $6600 per ounce in 2027, driven by sustained demand from central banks and investors [12]. Silver Market Outlook - The Silver Institute reports that the silver market will face a supply gap of 67 million ounces in 2026, with strong retail investment potentially offsetting declines in other demand areas [13]. - Analysts recommend that investors wait for reduced volatility before making further investments in silver, as current market conditions remain uncertain [15]. Investment Strategy - Analysts advise investors to maintain a balanced and cautious approach in the current volatile market, emphasizing the importance of not chasing prices and managing risk exposure [14][16]. - It is suggested that investors should consider their risk tolerance and avoid concentrating all assets in precious metals, maintaining a diversified investment portfolio [16].