Strategy(MSTR.US)夜盘涨5.8%，报167.12美元。MSCI表示，将暂缓执行将数字资产财资公司(Digital Asset Treasury Companies；DATCO)从其指数中剔除的提议，但将就如何对待非营运公司展开更广泛的 磋商，表示将对初步清单上的DATCOs维持现有处理方式，意味Strategy暂时将保留在MSCI的全球基准 指数中。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - MSCI has decided to maintain its current index treatment for "crypto treasury companies," allowing firms like MicroStrategy, which holds Bitcoin as a core asset, to remain included in the index [1][3] Group 1: MSCI's Decision - MSCI will not remove companies with over 50% of their total assets in cryptocurrency from its indices, indicating a temporary reprieve for crypto treasury companies [1] - The decision reflects MSCI's view that crypto treasury companies possess characteristics of investment funds rather than operational companies [1][4] - MSCI plans to initiate broader consultations to explore how to treat non-operational companies in the future [1][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, MicroStrategy's stock price rose over 6% in after-hours trading, recovering from a nearly 60% decline over the past year [1] - Analysts had previously warned that if MSCI proceeded with a removal plan, it could lead to up to $2.8 billion in outflows from MicroStrategy, with potential further impacts if other index providers followed suit [3] Group 3: Industry Context - MicroStrategy, initially a software company, transitioned to a Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, which was initially viewed skeptically but later gained popularity among investors seeking Bitcoin exposure [6] - The stock price of MicroStrategy surged over 3500% at its peak post-transition, outperforming major stock indices [6] - Despite the recent reprieve from MSCI, the debate regarding the positioning of crypto treasury companies within traditional financial indices continues [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Crypto Industry** and its outlook for **2026**, highlighting a **tokenization supercycle** that includes the tokenization of stablecoins, capital markets, and prediction markets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **2025 Performance**: Despite a weak Q4 in 2025, Bitcoin ended the year down 6%, while crypto equities had an average return of approximately **59%** [1]. 2. **Bitcoin Price Forecast**: The forecast for Bitcoin in 2026 is set at **$150K**, with a peak target of **$200K** in 2027, indicating a belief that the market has bottomed [1][8]. 3. **Stablecoin Growth**: Total stablecoin supply is expected to grow by **56% YoY** to **$420 billion** by 2026, driven by various factors including cross-border payments and fintech integration [2][47]. 4. **Tokenization of Real-World Assets**: The market for tokenized real-world assets is projected to increase from approximately **$37 billion** in 2025 to **$80 billion** in 2026, with equity tokenization expected to rise from **2%** to **16%** of total assets [3][47]. 5. **Prediction Markets**: The total volume for prediction markets is anticipated to double in 2026, reaching around **$70 billion**, with a significant portion of revenue expected from sports and political markets [4]. Company-Specific Insights Robinhood (HOOD) - **Management Strength**: HOOD is recognized for its effective management across equity, crypto, banking, and wealth management, with a strong distribution network of **14 million active traders** [12]. - **Prediction Markets Revenue**: Expected to contribute **9%** of total trading revenue by 2026, with HOOD building its own prediction markets exchange [15][77]. - **Tokenization Platform**: Plans to launch a full-scale equity tokenization platform, potentially impacting revenues significantly [15]. Coinbase (COIN) - **Business Transition**: COIN is transitioning to an 'everything exchange' model, expanding into tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and derivatives [16]. - **New Product Revenue**: New products are expected to drive **17%** of total trading revenues in 2026 [85]. - **Strategic Partnerships**: Partnerships with Circle are aimed at increasing USDC demand across various trading and payment platforms [16]. Circle (CRCL) - **Market Position**: Circle remains the largest regulated stablecoin provider in the U.S., with USDC growing by **73%** in 2025 to **$76 billion** [19][89]. - **Revenue Growth**: Despite concerns over interest rates, Circle's revenue and EBITDA have shown strong growth, maintaining pace with market demands [19]. Figure (FIGR) - **Loan Origination**: FIGR is expected to capture **5%** of U.S. HELOC origination by 2026, with strong momentum in tokenized consumer credit [26]. - **EBITDA Margin Expansion**: Projected EBITDA margins are expected to increase from **47%** in 2025 to **52%** in 2026 [26]. MicroStrategy (MSTR) - **Bitcoin Holdings**: MSTR holds approximately **674K BTC**, valued at around **$63 billion**, with a strong cash position to cover dividends [30]. - **Market Recovery**: MSTR is expected to benefit significantly from Bitcoin price appreciation, with a forecasted price of **$150K** in 2026 [31]. IREN - **AI Pivot**: IREN is focusing on building a vertically integrated AI business, with plans to set up **100K GPUs** over **350MW** of power [34]. - **Revenue Potential**: Expected to generate approximately **$2.5 billion** in annual recurring revenue by 2027 [39]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Regulatory Catalysts**: Key regulatory changes, such as the SEC crypto innovation exemption and the CLARITY Act, are expected to provide legitimacy to crypto trading platforms and could significantly impact market dynamics [10][11]. - **Market Risks**: The potential launch of crypto trading by legacy brokers and the competitive landscape with new entrants like Binance.US could pose risks to existing players [15][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the crypto industry and key companies within it.

Core Insights - Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to face declining stock performance despite recent Bitcoin purchases, raising concerns about investor confidence in its aggressive accumulation strategy [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - Strategy acquired an additional 1,287 Bitcoin, bringing its total reserve to 673,783 Bitcoin [2] - The stock price peaked at $167.24 but fell to a low of $155, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in favorable market conditions [3] - The company reported a $17.44 billion unrealized loss in Q4 of the previous year, with stock declining nearly 50% throughout 2025 [4] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly concerned that Strategy may need to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings if prices decline further, a significant shift from the founder's previous stance of "never sell" [5] - CEO Phon Le acknowledged the possibility of selling Bitcoin under specific crisis conditions, which has further eroded investor confidence [5] Group 3: Market Conditions - The MSCI's decision not to exclude digital asset treasuries from its index provided temporary relief, but the future of Bitcoin's price remains uncertain [6] - Continued increases in Bitcoin exposure could amplify the impact of any downturns, further affecting investor confidence [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the strategy will remain in MSCI indexes for the time being, although the index provider plans to conduct a broader review regarding the eligibility of investment-oriented companies to retain their positions [1] Group 2 - The MSCI index provider indicates that a more general review will be launched to assess whether investment-oriented companies can maintain their spots in the indexes [1]

Core Viewpoint - MSCI's decision not to exclude digital asset treasury firms from its indexes provides immediate relief for companies like Strategy (MSTR), which hold significant amounts of bitcoin on their balance sheets [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Shares of Strategy (MSTR) increased nearly 6% in post-market trading following MSCI's announcement [1]. - Analysts view the decision as a positive development, with Lance Vitanza from TD Cowen rating MSTR a buy with a price target of $500 [2]. Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Mark Palmer from Benchmark, who has a buy rating and a price target of $705, sees the MSCI decision as a reprieve for Strategy, suggesting that the company's arguments against exclusion were effective [3]. - Despite the positive news, analysts express caution regarding the long-term implications, noting that MSCI's consideration of excluding non-operating companies from its indexes indicates that the situation may not be fully resolved [3]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The outcome of MSCI's decision is significant for crypto treasury firms, as it affects not only Strategy but also any company that incorporates digital assets into its treasury operations [3]. - Future revisions of MSCI's rules could lead to renewed scrutiny for Strategy and potentially impact its inclusion in key market indexes [3].

市场普遍认为，这一决定暂时缓解了投资者对相关公司被动资金流出风险的担忧。对于以数字资产作为 资产负债表重要组成部分的企业而言，继续留在主要指数中，有助于维持机构资金配置和市场流动性。 MSCI在一份声明中表示，区分"投资公司"与那些将数字资产等非经营性资产作为核心经营活动组成部 分而非单纯投资用途持有的公司，仍需要进一步研究并与市场参与者展开更多磋商。MSCI指出，在评 估这类公司的指数适格性时，可能需要引入额外的纳入评估标准，例如基于财务报表或其他指标的判 断。 MSCI同时强调，在现阶段，其此前公布的初步名单中、数字资产持有规模占总资产50%或以上的相关 公司，其现有指数处理方式将保持不变。 智通财经APP获悉，周二盘后交易中，Strategy(MSTR.US)股价一度上涨6%。此前，指数编制机构MSCI 决定暂不将"数字资产财库公司"(DATs)从其指数体系中剔除。 ...

Core Viewpoint - MSCI's decision not to exclude digital asset treasury companies (DATs) from its indexes positively impacts market sentiment and capital inflow for these companies [1][3]. Group 1: MSCI's Decision - MSCI stated that further research is needed to distinguish between investment companies and those holding digital assets as part of their core operations [2]. - The current index treatment for DATs, where digital asset holdings represent 50% or more of total assets, will remain unchanged for now [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Strategy (MSTR) saw a 6% increase in after-hours trading, indicating a positive market reaction [1][3]. - Other DATs, including Bitmine Immersion (BMNR), Sharplink (SBET), and Twenty One Capital (XXI), also experienced modest gains in after-hours trading [3]. - Bitcoin's price increased by approximately 1%, trading around $93,500 after the news [4].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts at Bernstein predict that the company's growth will recover alongside Bitcoin's price, which is expected to rise significantly in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Company Valuation and Performance - The company is currently valued at a slight premium to its digital asset holdings, which is anticipated to increase as investor confidence grows [1]. - Historically, the company has been valued at a multiple-to-net asset value (mNAV) of 1.57, but this has recently declined to 1.02 [2][3]. - The company's stock price fell over 6% to approximately $154, with shares dropping more than 50% last year despite reaching a high of $457 [5]. Group 2: Bitcoin Holdings and Financial Strategy - The company has utilized various types of preferred stock to fund Bitcoin purchases, raising concerns about its ability to make dividend payments as Bitcoin's price fell by 23% in the previous quarter [4]. - Bernstein analysts believe the company will benefit significantly from a recovery in Bitcoin's price, which they predict could reach as high as $150,000 by 2026 [5]. - The company disclosed a $17.44 billion unrealized loss in the fourth quarter, indicating a decline in the value of its Bitcoin holdings [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The company has established a $2.25 billion "USD Reserve" to pre-pay dividends, which some analysts view as a prudent measure [7]. - There is a 17% chance that the company will sell Bitcoin this year, according to traders on a prediction market [7]. - Bernstein maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a price target of $450 [6].

Core Insights - Strategy Inc. (MSTR) reported a significant $17.44 billion unrealized loss on its bitcoin holdings in Q4 2025, highlighting the impact of crypto price volatility on its performance [1][9] - The company's earnings are closely tied to Bitcoin price movements, resulting in a nearly 47.5% decline in share prices in 2025 due to ongoing market volatility [2][9] - Strategy has established a $1.44 billion USD reserve to manage liquidity and cover dividend obligations for 12 to 24 months, indicating a proactive approach to mitigate volatility risks [3][4][9] Financial Performance - MSTR's shares have fallen 58.4% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Finance sector's 7.7% gain and the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry's 14.1% decline [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR's 2025 earnings is $78.04 per share, reflecting a year-over-year improvement from a loss of $6.72 per share [14] Competitive Landscape - MARA Holdings (MARA) competes with Strategy by integrating Bitcoin mining and accumulation, holding 52,850 BTC as of Q3 2025, and expanding into the data-center space to mitigate earnings volatility [5] - Riot Platforms (RIOT) poses a competitive threat by monetizing Bitcoin through large-scale mining, holding 19,287 BTC and producing 1,406 BTC, with revenues of $180.2 million and net income of $104.5 million [6]