Group 1 - Alluvial Gold Research provides detailed analysis on undervalued mining companies, focusing on those with upcoming catalysts that could enhance portfolio performance [1] - Subscribers receive access to current portfolios and real-time buy/sell alerts, indicating a proactive investment strategy [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of position sizing in the volatile precious metals sector, recommending that investments in small-cap precious metals stocks should be limited to 5% or less of an investor's portfolio [2]

Company Performance - New Gold (NGD) shares have increased by 9.9% over the past month and reached a 52-week high of $3.98, with a year-to-date gain of 60.5% compared to 4.2% for the Zacks Basic Materials sector and 46.8% for the Zacks Mining - Gold industry [1] - The company has consistently exceeded earnings expectations, reporting an EPS of $0.02 against a consensus estimate of $0.01 in its last earnings report [2] - For the current fiscal year, New Gold is projected to achieve earnings of $0.39 per share on revenues of $1.24 billion, reflecting a 95% increase in EPS and a 33.59% increase in revenues [3] Valuation Metrics - New Gold has a Value Score of B, a Growth Score of B, and a Momentum Score of C, resulting in a VGM Score of A [6] - The stock trades at 10.3X current fiscal year EPS estimates, below the peer industry average of 14.1X, and at 7.8X trailing cash flow compared to the peer group's average of 10.9X [7] Zacks Rank - New Gold holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) due to rising earnings estimates, indicating potential for further price appreciation [8] Industry Comparison - The Mining - Gold industry is performing well, ranking in the top 18% of all industries, providing favorable conditions for both New Gold and its peer Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) [11] - AEM also has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and is expected to post earnings of $6.11 per share on revenues of $9.99 billion for the current fiscal year [10]

Financial Performance - Revenues for Q1 2025 were $209.1 million, a 8.9% increase from $192.1 million in Q1 2024[5] - Net loss narrowed to $16.7 million in Q1 2025 compared to a net loss of $43.5 million in Q1 2024, representing a 61.6% improvement[5] - The company reported a total comprehensive loss of $19.7 million for Q1 2025, down from $57.0 million in Q1 2024, a reduction of 65.5%[7] - The company reported a loss per share of $0.02 for Q1 2025, an improvement from a loss per share of $0.06 in Q1 2024[5] - The company reported a net loss of $16.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a net loss of $43.5 million in the same period of 2024[82] Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses decreased to $103.4 million in Q1 2025 from $106.8 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 3.2% reduction[5] - Exploration and business development expenses rose to $4.6 million in Q1 2025, compared to $0.9 million in Q1 2024, indicating a significant increase in investment in growth initiatives[5] - Finance costs increased significantly to $14.9 million in Q1 2025 from $10.3 million in Q1 2024, with total finance costs after adjustments at $13.7 million compared to $2.6 million in the previous year[22] - Share-based payment expenses increased to $6.0 million in Q1 2025 from $1.9 million in Q1 2024, with total share-based payment expenses of $4.5 million after excluding operating expenses[79] - The company recognized a restructuring charge of $3.3 million in March 2025 related to executive leadership changes[88] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $2,118.4 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $2,003.8 million at the end of 2024, marking a 5.7% growth[9] - Long-term debt increased to $504.1 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $397.0 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a 26.9% rise[9] - Trade and other receivables decreased to $10.3 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $26.2 million at the end of 2024, with trade receivables specifically dropping from $21.6 million to $8.3 million[25] - Total trade and other payables increased to $209.0 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $196.1 million at the end of 2024, with notable increases in interest payable and current obligations[26] - The reclamation and closure cost obligations totaled $123.9 million as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a balance increase from $119.4 million at the end of 2024[75] Cash and Cash Equivalents - Cash and cash equivalents rose to $212.8 million at the end of Q1 2025, compared to $156.7 million at the end of Q1 2024, indicating a 35.8% increase[13] - As of March 31, 2025, the company's cash and cash equivalents increased to $212.8 million from $105.2 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a 102.4% increase[104] Investments and Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $75.2 million, compared to $61.1 million in the same period of 2024[92] - The total commitments for capital items increased to $83.5 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $63.7 million as of December 31, 2024, indicating a 31.1% rise[108] - The company plans to acquire the remaining 19.9% free cash flow interest in the New Afton Mine for a cash payment of $300.0 million, expected to close in May 2025[110] Derivative Financial Liabilities - The company has a non-current portion of derivative financial liabilities totaling $183.0 million as of March 31, 2025[53] - The company recognized a total loss of $8.3 million on swap contracts for the three months ended March 31, 2025[70] - The fair value of gold and copper swap contracts decreased to $(5.1) million as of March 31, 2025, from $1.7 million as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a negative shift[104] Credit Facilities and Ratios - The Company has a revolving credit facility with a borrowing limit of $400.0 million, extended to March 2029, with an option to increase the limit to $500.0 million[47][48] - As of March 31, 2025, the Company has not drawn any funds from the credit facility, but has issued letters of credit amounting to $23.3 million[51] - The minimum interest coverage ratio for the twelve months ended March 31, 2025, is 11.7:1, significantly above the required >3.0:1[50] - The maximum leverage ratio as of March 31, 2025, is 1.0:1, well below the threshold of <4.5:1[50] Other Financial Metrics - The weighted average number of shares outstanding increased to 791.2 million in Q1 2025 from 687.6 million in Q1 2024, a growth of 15.1%[5] - The carrying amount of mining interests increased to $1,717.6 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $1,687.1 million at the end of 2024, reflecting ongoing investments in mining properties[33] - The fair value of unrealized foreign exchange forward contract liabilities as of March 31, 2025, is $2.7 million, down from $5.3 million as of December 31, 2024[72] - The fair value of provisionally priced contracts was $3.1 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $(0.5) million as of December 31, 2024, indicating a significant recovery[104] - The fair value of unrealized foreign exchange forward contracts was $2.7 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $5.3 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a decrease of 49.1%[106]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly seeking growth stocks, particularly in the financial sector, to achieve above-average returns, but identifying stocks that can sustain their growth potential is challenging [1] Group 1: Company Overview - New Gold (NGD) is currently highlighted as a recommended growth stock due to its favorable Growth Score and top Zacks Rank [2][10] Group 2: Earnings Growth - The historical EPS growth rate for New Gold is 5.6%, but projected EPS growth for this year is expected to be 93.7%, significantly surpassing the industry average of 31.6% [5] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - New Gold's year-over-year cash flow growth stands at 41.6%, which is considerably higher than the industry average of 8.4% [6] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 15.6%, closely aligning with the industry average of 15.5% [7] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - The current-year earnings estimates for New Gold have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 68.5% over the past month [8]

Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about New Gold (NGD) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.New Gold currently has an average brokerage ...

Core Viewpoint - New Gold (NGD) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 29, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates showing a shift from a prior anticipated loss to a slight profit, although still reflecting a decline from the previous year [1][3]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NGD's EPS has improved from a loss of four cents to a profit of one cent over the last 60 days, indicating a 50% decline from the year-ago quarter's EPS of two cents [1]. - New Gold has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 79.2% [2]. Market Conditions - Gold prices averaged $2,883.40 per ounce in Q1 2025, a 39% increase year-over-year, driven by geopolitical tensions and strong demand from central banks [3]. - Copper prices rose approximately 19% year-over-year, surpassing $5 per pound in late March due to tariff concerns [4]. Production Expectations - For 2025, New Gold anticipates consolidated gold production of 325,000-365,000 ounces, a 16% increase from the previous year, with Q1 expected to contribute 14% of this total [5]. - Q1 2025 gold production is projected to be between 45,500-51,100 ounces, down from 70,898 ounces in Q1 2024, attributed to significant waste stripping at Rainy River and the depletion of the B3 cave at New Afton [6][12]. - Rainy River's gold production is expected to increase by 20% year-over-year, with Q1 contributing approximately 11% of the annual target [7]. - New Afton's gold output is projected at 60,000-70,000 ounces for 2025, with Q1 production expected between 16,350 and 18,650 ounces [8]. Cost Projections - All-in sustaining costs are expected to be $1,025-$1,125 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a 17% decrease at the midpoint due to higher production and lower operating costs [10]. - Q1 2025 all-in sustaining costs are anticipated to be higher than the $1,396 per ounce reported in Q1 2024, with cash costs also expected to exceed $874 per ounce from the previous year [11]. Stock Performance - New Gold's stock has increased by 93% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 42.7% [14].

Core Viewpoint - New Gold is experiencing a mixed performance in the market, with a notable gain over the past month, but upcoming earnings are expected to show a significant decline in EPS compared to the previous year [1][2]. Company Performance - New Gold's stock closed at $3.59, reflecting a daily increase of +0.56%, which is lower than the S&P 500's gain of 0.79% [1]. - Over the past month, New Gold's shares have increased by 11.91%, while the Basic Materials sector and the S&P 500 have decreased by 4.43% and 3.56%, respectively [1]. - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for April 29, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.01, indicating a 50% decrease from the same quarter last year [2]. Earnings Estimates - For the full year, analysts project earnings of $0.37 per share and revenue of $1.12 billion, representing increases of +85% and +21.15% from the previous year [3]. - Recent modifications to analyst estimates suggest a changing business landscape, with positive revisions indicating optimism about New Gold's outlook [4]. Analyst Ratings - The Zacks Rank system currently rates New Gold as 3 (Hold), with a recent upward shift of 57.45% in the consensus EPS estimate [6]. - The Zacks Rank ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), with 1 stocks historically delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - New Gold's Forward P/E ratio stands at 9.65, which is below the industry average of 15.23, indicating a potential valuation discount [7]. - The Mining - Gold industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 145, placing it in the bottom 42% of over 250 industries [7][8].

New Gold Inc. (NYSE: NGD ) (TSX: NGD:CA ) is a mid-tier gold producer, with two operational mines in the safe jurisdiction of Canada. Despite NGD being seemingly fair valued at present, I initiate coverage with a Strong Buy rating afterI work on the buy-side in Fixed Income. In my spare time, I'm out here seeking alpha. When it comes to my investment outlook...I'm here to remind you to "Always Protect Your Nuts!" I have a special interest in the Mining and Real Estate sectors.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded above $3,010, indicating a market preference for gold as a safe investment amid potential stagflation or recession, with major banks maintaining a bullish outlook on gold prices [1] Group 1: Lake Victoria Gold Ltd. Developments - Lake Victoria Gold has successfully converted its Prospecting License into four Mining Licenses for the Tembo Project in Tanzania, allowing for legal development and production [2][3] - The Tembo Project has seen over $28 million in exploration expenditures, including extensive drilling, which has identified three high-priority targets with promising gold grades [3][4] - The Mining Licenses are valid for 10 years with an option for a further 10-year renewal, providing a stable framework for development [3] Group 2: Exploration Results - At the Ngula 1 target, drilling has revealed a 250-meter-wide zone with significant gold-bearing structures, including results of 3.13 grams per tonne (g/t) over nearly 26 meters and a notable interval of 22.18 g/t over 15 meters [5] - The Nyakagwe Village target has produced high-grade results, with grades reaching 78.1 g/t over one meter and 27.88 g/t over nearly four meters, indicating potential for near-term mining [6] - Drilling at Nyakagwe East has uncovered a 300-meter-wide zone with strong mineralization, yielding intercepts of 19.1 g/t over three meters and 10.25 g/t over 3.5 meters [7] Group 3: Future Plans and Partnerships - With Mining Licenses secured, Lake Victoria Gold is evaluating options for near-term production, including potential open-pit mining and utilizing nearby processing facilities [8] - A new drill program is being designed to follow up on historical high-grade hits, with 38 new exploration targets identified, suggesting further growth potential [9] - The company is open to partnerships, having previously engaged with Barrick Gold, which could enhance its development strategy for the Tembo Project [10] Group 4: Industry Context - Other companies in the gold mining sector are also making significant moves, such as New Gold Inc. acquiring a 19.9% interest in its New Afton mine for $300 million, which will enhance its cash flow exposure [12][13] - Thor Explorations reported strong production results and plans for further exploration in West Africa, indicating a positive outlook for gold mining in the region [14][15] - Westgold Resources has activated an ore purchase agreement to strengthen its regional supply, while Dakota Gold Corp. has secured $35 million in financing to advance its Richmond Hill project [16][18]

New Gold Inc. (NGD) announced that it inked a deal with Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan to acquire 19.9% free cash flow interest in the New Afton Mine. This move will give New Gold 100% free cash flow interest in the mine.NGD’s Benefits From the DealNew Gold’s fully consolidated ownership of the New Afton Mine will expose the company to 100% of life-of-mine cash flow with no equity dilution to New Gold's shareholders.New Afton has significant potential to increase value by enhancing production and prolonging ...