Group 1 - The Barclays Global Financial Services Conference features a European track, highlighting the importance of the event for industry stakeholders [1] - NatWest Group CFO, Katie Murray, is a regular participant at the conference, indicating her prominence and the company's engagement in industry discussions [2]

NatWest Group FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: NatWest Group (NYSE: NWG) - **Event**: FY Conference held on September 09, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **UK Economic Outlook**: The UK economy is experiencing sluggish growth with a fiscal deficit challenge, but there are signs of cautious optimism. Growth was reported at 1.1% for the half-year, slightly below expectations, but PMI and retail sales indexes showed improvement in August and July, indicating potential recovery [4][6][9]. - **Bank Tax Concerns**: There is ongoing discussion about potential additional bank taxes in the upcoming budget. NatWest Group emphasizes the importance of strong banks for economic stability and notes that the banking sector is already one of the highest taxed industries [12][13][14]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Guidance**: NatWest has upgraded its revenue expectations for FY 2025 to exceed £16 billion, driven by strong lending growth and a beneficial structural hedge [15][15][17]. - **Loan Growth**: Loans across three operating divisions increased by 7% year-on-year, with a 6% increase excluding the Sainsbury's acquisition. The bank has seen significant growth in mortgages and credit cards, indicating a robust lending environment [24][26][28]. - **Cost of Risk**: The bank is guiding for a cost of risk below 20 basis points for the year, reflecting a stable credit environment despite economic challenges [30][34]. Strategic Initiatives - **Structural Hedge**: The structural hedge is expected to provide a significant tailwind, with income projected to be £1 billion higher than the previous year. This is anticipated to continue benefiting the bank through 2028 [42][44][46]. - **M&A Strategy**: NatWest's strategic plan does not heavily rely on M&A for growth, focusing instead on organic growth. Recent acquisitions, such as Sainsbury's, are seen as important for enhancing product offerings [56][57][61]. - **Technology Investments**: The bank is investing in technology and AI to improve operational efficiency and customer service. This includes partnerships with OpenAI and AWS to enhance data management and customer insights [86][88][90]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Competition**: The UK banking sector remains highly competitive, with traditional banks and fintechs vying for market share. NatWest is focused on maintaining its competitive edge through product diversification and customer engagement strategies [47][92][94]. Risk Factors - **Economic Risks**: Concerns about weaker earnings, capital, and potential regulatory risks are prevalent. The bank is monitoring these factors closely as they could impact future performance [38][70][80]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Ongoing regulatory changes, including potential reductions in capital requirements, are being assessed. NatWest is positioned to adapt to these changes while maintaining a strong capital base [72][76][78]. Conclusion NatWest Group is navigating a complex economic landscape with a focus on organic growth, strategic investments in technology, and maintaining a strong capital position. The bank's proactive approach to managing risks and leveraging its structural hedge positions it well for future growth despite the competitive and regulatory challenges in the UK banking sector.

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced declines on September 3, 2025, due to rising tariff concerns, increased long-term Treasury yields, and inflation fears, leading to investor uncertainty and sell-offs [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - In the current market environment, it is suggested that investors consider low-leverage stocks as safer investment options to mitigate risks during market turmoil [2][6] - Recommended stocks include NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Sterling Infrastructure (STRL), Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS), Dorman Products (DORM), and Natwest Group (NWG), all of which exhibit low leverage [2][10] Group 2: Understanding Leverage - Leverage refers to the practice of companies borrowing capital to operate and expand, typically through debt financing, which can pose risks if not managed properly [4][5] - A low debt-to-equity ratio is emphasized as a key indicator of financial stability, with a lower ratio indicating improved solvency and reduced financial risk [7][9] Group 3: Company Performance Highlights - NVIDIA Corp. reported a 56% year-over-year revenue increase to $46.7 billion in Q2 2025, with a 61% surge in earnings per share (EPS) [14][15] - Sterling Infrastructure completed an acquisition that positions it for sustained growth, with a projected earnings improvement of 45.9% for 2025 [16][17] - Northern Trust secured a contract with the State of New Mexico Educational Retirement Board, which is expected to enhance its recurring revenues and market presence [18][19] - Dorman Products achieved a 7.6% increase in net sales to $541 million in Q2 2025, with a 23% rise in adjusted EPS [20] - Natwest Group joined a debt financing syndicate for a significant infrastructure project, projecting a 20.1% sales improvement for 2025 [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between NatWest Group (NWG) and Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) indicates that NWG is more attractive to value investors due to its stronger earnings estimate revision activity and more favorable valuation metrics [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - NWG has a forward P/E ratio of 9.15, while CM has a forward P/E of 13.02, suggesting that NWG is undervalued compared to CM [5]. - The PEG ratio for NWG is 0.84, indicating a better valuation relative to its expected earnings growth compared to CM's PEG ratio of 1.69 [5]. - NWG's P/B ratio is 1.05, which is lower than CM's P/B of 1.83, further supporting NWG's more attractive valuation [6]. Analyst Outlook - NWG holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), reflecting a more positive analyst outlook compared to CM's Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The stronger estimate revision activity for NWG suggests a more favorable future performance as perceived by analysts [7]. Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, NWG has a Value grade of B, while CM has a Value grade of C, indicating that NWG is viewed as a better value investment [6].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs downgraded Deutsche Bank's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and Deutsche Commercial Bank's rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to their stock performance exceeding the market since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European banking sector has risen nearly 50% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the overall European stock market [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include strong growth momentum, a more stable and steeper interest rate trajectory, and ongoing performance growth and rating upgrades [1] Group 2: Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for European banks, projecting an average potential stock price increase of about 10% over the next 12 months, with some stocks rated "Buy" expected to rise by approximately 20% [1] - Stocks rated "Buy" include UBS Group, ING Group, Lloyds Banking Group, BNP Paribas, National Westminster Group, Santander Bank, and HSBC [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Environment - The interest rate curve has steepened this year, with expectations for final rates trending towards a range-bound movement, enhancing investor confidence in the medium-term outlook for net interest income [1]

Core Insights - U.S. stock indices rose over 1.5% on August 22, 2025, following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication of a potential interest rate cut next month, leading to increased trader optimism and a notable rise in Wall Street [1][10] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to consider low-leverage stocks such as NatWest Group, Sterling Infrastructure, Luxfer Holdings, Evercore, and Hillman Solutions Corp. as safer investment options due to their lower risk profile [2][10] - The focus on low-leverage stocks is based on the understanding that companies with excessive debt financing may face significant losses during economic downturns [5][6] Low-Leverage Stocks - Leverage refers to the practice of borrowing capital for operations and expansion, typically through debt financing, which can pose risks if returns do not exceed interest costs [4][5] - A lower debt-to-equity ratio indicates improved solvency and reduced financial risk for a company, making it a crucial metric for investors [7][9] Company Highlights - **NatWest Group (NWG)**: Announced a £140 million lending for essential upgrades to the UK's Haweswater Aqueduct, with a projected 20.1% sales improvement for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.9% [15][16] - **Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)**: Reported a 21% year-over-year revenue increase and a 40.8% surge in earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a projected 45.9% earnings improvement for 2025 [17][18] - **Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)**: Achieved a 5.8% increase in adjusted net sales and a 25% rise in adjusted earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 8% [19][20] - **Evercore (EVR)**: Reported a 20.7% increase in adjusted revenues and a 30.4% rise in earnings for Q2 2025, with a projected 15.9% sales improvement for 2025 [20][21] - **Hillman Solutions (HLMN)**: Experienced a 6.2% sales increase and a 6.3% growth in adjusted earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a projected 6.6% sales improvement for 2025 [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Banks - Foreign sector may consider NatWest Group (NWG) or Nordea Bank AB (NRDBY) as potential investment opportunities, with a closer examination needed to determine which stock is more appealing to value investors [1] Valuation Metrics - NatWest Group has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while Nordea Bank AB has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - NWG has a forward P/E ratio of 8.84, compared to NRDBY's forward P/E of 9.25, suggesting NWG may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for NWG is 0.81, indicating better expected earnings growth relative to its price, while NRDBY has a PEG ratio of 2.99, suggesting it may be overvalued [5] - NWG's P/B ratio is 1.02, which is lower than NRDBY's P/B of 1.51, further supporting NWG's valuation as more attractive [6] - Based on these metrics, NWG has a Value grade of B, while NRDBY has a Value grade of D, indicating NWG is the superior value option [6][7] Earnings Outlook - NWG is currently experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which enhances its attractiveness in the Zacks Rank model [7]

Core Insights - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline of nearly 1% on August 5, 2025, due to weaker-than-expected services data and ongoing tariff uncertainties, particularly with Trump threatening tariffs as high as 250% on pharmaceuticals [1][10] - Despite market volatility, low-leverage stocks are highlighted as safer investment options during economic uncertainty, with specific companies recommended for their strong earnings growth and low debt levels [2][10] Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is currently facing challenges due to tariff-related uncertainties and weaker economic data, leading to a lack of confidence among investors [2][10] - The recent wave of corporate earnings that exceeded estimates has been overshadowed by tariff concerns, impacting overall market optimism [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider low-leverage stocks as a protective measure against potential economic downturns, with a focus on companies that exhibit solid earnings growth and lower debt-to-equity ratios [6][9] - The debt-to-equity ratio is emphasized as a critical metric for assessing financial risk, with lower ratios indicating better solvency [7][9] Recommended Low-Leverage Stocks - **NatWest Group (NWG)**: Collaborating with Google Cloud to enhance growth, with a projected 20.1% sales improvement for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.9% [15][16] - **Zions Bancorporation (ZION)**: Reported a 9% year-over-year increase in net interest income, with a 5% expected earnings growth for 2025 [17][18] - **Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)**: Achieved a 5.8% increase in adjusted net sales and a 25% rise in adjusted earnings per share, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 8% [19][20] - **Kingstone Companies (KINS)**: Declared a quarterly cash dividend, indicating strong financial health, with a projected 37.9% improvement in both sales and earnings for 2025 [21][22] - **Ingredion Inc. (INGR)**: Reported a 1% increase in adjusted operating income, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 11% and a 1% sales improvement expected for 2025 [23][24]

Group 1 - NatWest Group reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with revenue and profits exceeding analysts' expectations [1] - The bank's performance indicates a positive trend in its financial health and operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - The focus on long-term investment strategies is emphasized, particularly in high-quality earnings stocks [2] - The investment approach includes a preference for dividend and income-generating stocks [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer lending grew 3.2% to GBP 384 billion in H1 2025, while customer deposits increased by 1% to GBP 436 billion [3] - Income rose 13.7% year on year to GBP 8 billion, and costs decreased by 1.4% to GBP 3.9 billion, resulting in an operating profit of GBP 3.6 billion and attributable profit of GBP 2.5 billion [3] - The return on tangible equity was reported at 18.1% [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail Banking and Private Banking mortgage balances grew by GBP 1.3 billion, with unsecured balances increasing by GBP 2.7 billion due to the addition of Sainsbury's Bank portfolios [11][12] - In the commercial and institutional segment, gross customer loans increased by GBP 4.6 billion, driven by project finance and sustainable financing [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank attracted over 100,000 new customers through organic growth and the acquisition of Sainsbury's Bank, adding approximately 1 million new customers [5] - The deposit mix remained stable, with non-interest-bearing balances at 31% and term accounts increasing from 16% to 17% [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver GBP 200 billion of climate and transition finance by 2030, having already exceeded its previous target of GBP 100 billion [6] - A strategic collaboration with AWS and Accenture was announced to enhance data capabilities and customer engagement through AI [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a loan impairment rate below 20 basis points for the full year, citing strong performance in the diversified prime loan book [16][17] - The company anticipates full-year total income, excluding notable items, to exceed GBP 16 billion, with a return on tangible equity expected to be greater than 16.5% [11][17] Other Important Information - An interim dividend of GBP 9.5 was announced along with a share buyback program of GBP 750 million [4] - The CET1 ratio stands at 13.6%, with a total capital ratio of 19.7% and a total MREL ratio of 32.4% [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will there be another small transaction before the end of the year? - The company has issued GBP 750 million and may consider a cleanup transaction later this year or early next year, depending on risk weights [32][34][35] Question: Concerns about the rating gap between S&P and other agencies? - Management acknowledged the gap and expressed a desire for S&P to align with other agencies, citing the punitive nature of S&P's rating methodology for UK banks [38][39][40] Question: Inquiry about issuance plans and CET1 buffer? - The company remains flexible regarding currency for future issuances, with current attractive options in dollars and sterling [48][50][51] - Management indicated that CET1 targets are regularly reviewed in light of regulatory changes, with no specific insights on potential changes to the countercyclical buffer [49][50][60]