Core Viewpoint - The comparison between NatWest Group (NWG) and Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) indicates that NWG is more attractive to value investors due to its stronger earnings estimate revision activity and more favorable valuation metrics [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - NWG has a forward P/E ratio of 9.15, while CM has a forward P/E of 13.02, suggesting that NWG is undervalued compared to CM [5]. - The PEG ratio for NWG is 0.84, indicating a better valuation relative to its expected earnings growth compared to CM's PEG ratio of 1.69 [5]. - NWG's P/B ratio is 1.05, which is lower than CM's P/B of 1.83, further supporting NWG's more attractive valuation [6]. Analyst Outlook - NWG holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), reflecting a more positive analyst outlook compared to CM's Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The stronger estimate revision activity for NWG suggests a more favorable future performance as perceived by analysts [7]. Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, NWG has a Value grade of B, while CM has a Value grade of C, indicating that NWG is viewed as a better value investment [6].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs downgraded Deutsche Bank's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and Deutsche Commercial Bank's rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to their stock performance exceeding the market since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European banking sector has risen nearly 50% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the overall European stock market [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include strong growth momentum, a more stable and steeper interest rate trajectory, and ongoing performance growth and rating upgrades [1] Group 2: Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for European banks, projecting an average potential stock price increase of about 10% over the next 12 months, with some stocks rated "Buy" expected to rise by approximately 20% [1] - Stocks rated "Buy" include UBS Group, ING Group, Lloyds Banking Group, BNP Paribas, National Westminster Group, Santander Bank, and HSBC [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Environment - The interest rate curve has steepened this year, with expectations for final rates trending towards a range-bound movement, enhancing investor confidence in the medium-term outlook for net interest income [1]

Core Insights - U.S. stock indices rose over 1.5% on August 22, 2025, following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication of a potential interest rate cut next month, leading to increased trader optimism and a notable rise in Wall Street [1][10] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to consider low-leverage stocks such as NatWest Group, Sterling Infrastructure, Luxfer Holdings, Evercore, and Hillman Solutions Corp. as safer investment options due to their lower risk profile [2][10] - The focus on low-leverage stocks is based on the understanding that companies with excessive debt financing may face significant losses during economic downturns [5][6] Low-Leverage Stocks - Leverage refers to the practice of borrowing capital for operations and expansion, typically through debt financing, which can pose risks if returns do not exceed interest costs [4][5] - A lower debt-to-equity ratio indicates improved solvency and reduced financial risk for a company, making it a crucial metric for investors [7][9] Company Highlights - **NatWest Group (NWG)**: Announced a £140 million lending for essential upgrades to the UK's Haweswater Aqueduct, with a projected 20.1% sales improvement for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.9% [15][16] - **Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)**: Reported a 21% year-over-year revenue increase and a 40.8% surge in earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a projected 45.9% earnings improvement for 2025 [17][18] - **Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)**: Achieved a 5.8% increase in adjusted net sales and a 25% rise in adjusted earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 8% [19][20] - **Evercore (EVR)**: Reported a 20.7% increase in adjusted revenues and a 30.4% rise in earnings for Q2 2025, with a projected 15.9% sales improvement for 2025 [20][21] - **Hillman Solutions (HLMN)**: Experienced a 6.2% sales increase and a 6.3% growth in adjusted earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a projected 6.6% sales improvement for 2025 [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Banks - Foreign sector may consider NatWest Group (NWG) or Nordea Bank AB (NRDBY) as potential investment opportunities, with a closer examination needed to determine which stock is more appealing to value investors [1] Valuation Metrics - NatWest Group has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while Nordea Bank AB has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - NWG has a forward P/E ratio of 8.84, compared to NRDBY's forward P/E of 9.25, suggesting NWG may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for NWG is 0.81, indicating better expected earnings growth relative to its price, while NRDBY has a PEG ratio of 2.99, suggesting it may be overvalued [5] - NWG's P/B ratio is 1.02, which is lower than NRDBY's P/B of 1.51, further supporting NWG's valuation as more attractive [6] - Based on these metrics, NWG has a Value grade of B, while NRDBY has a Value grade of D, indicating NWG is the superior value option [6][7] Earnings Outlook - NWG is currently experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which enhances its attractiveness in the Zacks Rank model [7]

Core Insights - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline of nearly 1% on August 5, 2025, due to weaker-than-expected services data and ongoing tariff uncertainties, particularly with Trump threatening tariffs as high as 250% on pharmaceuticals [1][10] - Despite market volatility, low-leverage stocks are highlighted as safer investment options during economic uncertainty, with specific companies recommended for their strong earnings growth and low debt levels [2][10] Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is currently facing challenges due to tariff-related uncertainties and weaker economic data, leading to a lack of confidence among investors [2][10] - The recent wave of corporate earnings that exceeded estimates has been overshadowed by tariff concerns, impacting overall market optimism [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider low-leverage stocks as a protective measure against potential economic downturns, with a focus on companies that exhibit solid earnings growth and lower debt-to-equity ratios [6][9] - The debt-to-equity ratio is emphasized as a critical metric for assessing financial risk, with lower ratios indicating better solvency [7][9] Recommended Low-Leverage Stocks - **NatWest Group (NWG)**: Collaborating with Google Cloud to enhance growth, with a projected 20.1% sales improvement for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.9% [15][16] - **Zions Bancorporation (ZION)**: Reported a 9% year-over-year increase in net interest income, with a 5% expected earnings growth for 2025 [17][18] - **Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)**: Achieved a 5.8% increase in adjusted net sales and a 25% rise in adjusted earnings per share, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 8% [19][20] - **Kingstone Companies (KINS)**: Declared a quarterly cash dividend, indicating strong financial health, with a projected 37.9% improvement in both sales and earnings for 2025 [21][22] - **Ingredion Inc. (INGR)**: Reported a 1% increase in adjusted operating income, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 11% and a 1% sales improvement expected for 2025 [23][24]

Group 1 - NatWest Group reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with revenue and profits exceeding analysts' expectations [1] - The bank's performance indicates a positive trend in its financial health and operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - The focus on long-term investment strategies is emphasized, particularly in high-quality earnings stocks [2] - The investment approach includes a preference for dividend and income-generating stocks [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer lending grew 3.2% to GBP 384 billion in H1 2025, while customer deposits increased by 1% to GBP 436 billion [3] - Income rose 13.7% year on year to GBP 8 billion, and costs decreased by 1.4% to GBP 3.9 billion, resulting in an operating profit of GBP 3.6 billion and attributable profit of GBP 2.5 billion [3] - The return on tangible equity was reported at 18.1% [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail Banking and Private Banking mortgage balances grew by GBP 1.3 billion, with unsecured balances increasing by GBP 2.7 billion due to the addition of Sainsbury's Bank portfolios [11][12] - In the commercial and institutional segment, gross customer loans increased by GBP 4.6 billion, driven by project finance and sustainable financing [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank attracted over 100,000 new customers through organic growth and the acquisition of Sainsbury's Bank, adding approximately 1 million new customers [5] - The deposit mix remained stable, with non-interest-bearing balances at 31% and term accounts increasing from 16% to 17% [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver GBP 200 billion of climate and transition finance by 2030, having already exceeded its previous target of GBP 100 billion [6] - A strategic collaboration with AWS and Accenture was announced to enhance data capabilities and customer engagement through AI [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a loan impairment rate below 20 basis points for the full year, citing strong performance in the diversified prime loan book [16][17] - The company anticipates full-year total income, excluding notable items, to exceed GBP 16 billion, with a return on tangible equity expected to be greater than 16.5% [11][17] Other Important Information - An interim dividend of GBP 9.5 was announced along with a share buyback program of GBP 750 million [4] - The CET1 ratio stands at 13.6%, with a total capital ratio of 19.7% and a total MREL ratio of 32.4% [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will there be another small transaction before the end of the year? - The company has issued GBP 750 million and may consider a cleanup transaction later this year or early next year, depending on risk weights [32][34][35] Question: Concerns about the rating gap between S&P and other agencies? - Management acknowledged the gap and expressed a desire for S&P to align with other agencies, citing the punitive nature of S&P's rating methodology for UK banks [38][39][40] Question: Inquiry about issuance plans and CET1 buffer? - The company remains flexible regarding currency for future issuances, with current attractive options in dollars and sterling [48][50][51] - Management indicated that CET1 targets are regularly reviewed in light of regulatory changes, with no specific insights on potential changes to the countercyclical buffer [49][50][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer lending grew by 3.2% to GBP 384 billion in H1 2025, while customer deposits increased by 1% to GBP 436 billion [3] - Income rose by 13.7% year-on-year to GBP 8 billion, and costs decreased by 1.4% to GBP 3.9 billion, resulting in an operating profit of GBP 3.6 billion and an attributable profit of GBP 2.5 billion [3][4] - The return on tangible equity was reported at 18.1% [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail Banking and Private Banking mortgage balances grew by GBP 1.3 billion, with unsecured balances increasing by GBP 2.7 billion due to the addition of Sainsbury's Bank portfolios [11][12] - In Commercial and Institutional, gross customer loans increased by GBP 4.6 billion, driven by project finance and sustainable financing [12] - Overall income, excluding notable items, grew by 1.5% to GBP 4 billion in Q2 2025 [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average liquidity coverage ratio was 150%, indicating a strong liquidity position [21] - The loan to deposit ratio stood at 86%, reflecting a well-diversified funding base [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver GBP 200 billion of climate and transition finance by 2030, having already exceeded its previous target [6] - A strategic collaboration with AWS and Accenture was announced to enhance data capabilities and customer engagement through AI [6] - The company is focused on bank-wide simplification to improve customer and colleague experience [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects total income for the full year to exceed GBP 16 billion, with a return on tangible equity greater than 16.5% [11][17] - The company anticipates two further base rate cuts this year, with rates expected to reach 3.75% by year-end [10] - Management expressed confidence in the credit portfolio, expecting a loan impairment rate below 20 basis points for the full year [16] Other Important Information - An interim dividend of GBP 9.5 was announced along with a share buyback program of GBP 750 million [4] - The CET1 ratio was reported at 13.6%, with a total capital ratio of 19.7% [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expected issuance before the end of the year - The company has issued GBP 750 million and may consider a cleanup transaction later this year or early next year depending on risk weights [34][36] Question: Concerns about rating gaps between agencies - Management acknowledged the gap with S&P and emphasized the strength of the balance sheet, aiming for an upgrade based on strong financial performance [39][40] Question: Economic assumptions and loan growth - Management indicated that while they have not provided specific guidance for 2026, they are currently operating closer to the lower end of the impairment range [60] - Project finance is described as lumpy but supported by strong relationships [63] Question: NSFR and ring-fencing implications - The NSFR is high due to a strong deposit franchise, and management does not expect changes in ring-fencing to impact the competitive nature of the mortgage market [69]

Financial Performance - Attributable profit reached £2.5 billion in H1'25, an 18.5% increase compared to H1'24[5, 10] - Total income, excluding notable items, increased by 13.7% to £8.0 billion in H1'25[5, 10] - Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) improved to 18.1% compared to 16.4% in H1'24[5, 10] - Earnings per share increased by 28% to 30.9p in H1'25[5] Balance Sheet Strength - Customer loans increased by 3.2% to £384 billion compared to December 2024[5] - Customer deposits increased by 1.0% to £436 billion compared to December 2024[5] - Assets Under Management (AUMA) increased by 5.9% to £52 billion compared to December 2024[5] - The CET1 ratio is strong at 13.6%[5, 8] Strategic Initiatives - The group added 1.1 million customers, including over 100,000 organically, bringing the total to over 20 million[7] - The group delivered £110 billion of Climate and Sustainable Finance and introduced a new £200 billion Climate and Transition Finance target[7] - A £750 million share buyback program was announced, equivalent to 40bps of surplus capital[8]

Financial Performance - NatWest Group's financial statements are prepared in accordance with UK-adopted International Accounting Standards and IFRS, with non-IFRS measures included for better performance comparison[15]. - The company reported a significant increase in retail banking revenue, reaching $12 billion, representing a 14% year-over-year growth[19]. - Private banking and wealth management segment generated $14 billion, marking a 16% increase compared to the previous year[19]. - The commercial and institutional banking segment achieved $18 billion in revenue, reflecting an 18% growth year-over-year[19]. - The company reported a consolidated net income of $82 billion, with a notable increase in cash flow statements[19]. - NatWest Group reported an attributable profit of £2.5 billion for H1 2025, with earnings per share of 30.9 pence, representing a 28% increase year-over-year[23]. - Total income for H1 2025 increased by 11.9% to £7,985 million compared to H1 2024, with net interest income rising by 13.2% to £6,120 million[28]. - Operating profit for the first half of 2025 was £3,585 million, compared to £3,029 million in the first half of 2024, indicating a growth of 18.3%[70]. Capital and Regulatory Metrics - NatWest Group's CET1 ratio and other regulatory buffer requirements are key components of its financial strategy[4]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was maintained at 13.6%, with NAV per share increasing by 20 pence to 444 pence and TNAV per share increasing by 22 pence to 351 pence[25]. - The company expects to achieve a Return on Tangible Equity of greater than 15% in 2025 and greater than 16.5% in 2027[26]. - The CET1 ratio was 13.6%, approximately 20 basis points lower than Q1 2025, primarily due to increased RWAs and ordinary dividend accrual[11]. - The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) was reported at 147%, while the net stable funding ratio (NSFR) was at 134%[31]. Dividends and Share Buybacks - The interim dividend was set at 9.5 pence per share, a 58% increase compared to the previous year, alongside a £750 million share buyback program announced for H2 2025[24]. - An interim dividend of 9.5 pence per share was announced, alongside a planned share buyback program of £750 million in H2 2025, totaling £1.5 billion in distributions for H1 2025[37]. - NatWest Group plans to pay ordinary dividends of around 50% of attributable profit from 2025 and will consider buybacks as appropriate[27]. Customer Growth and Deposits - NatWest Group added 1.1 million new customers in H1 2025, with net loans to customers reaching £407.1 billion, an increase of £6.8 billion from Q4 2024[25]. - Customer deposits, excluding central items, rose by £4.5 billion, including £2.4 billion from Sainsbury's Bank acquisition[25]. - Customer deposits reached £436.8 billion in H1 2025, up £3.3 billion from Q4 2024, while net loans to customers increased by £6.8 billion to £407.1 billion[36]. Risk Management and Economic Outlook - Significant risks affecting future results include economic and political risks, changes in interest rates, and climate-related risks[5]. - The company emphasizes the importance of forward-looking statements regarding financial performance measures, including income growth and operating expenses[3]. - The document outlines the potential for future acquisitions and divestments as part of the strategic execution plan[5]. - The company continues to monitor economic data and portfolio performance trends to ensure robust risk management practices[110]. - The overall credit risk management strategy aligns with the business appetite across NatWest Group, focusing on maintaining portfolio quality[179]. Climate and Sustainability Initiatives - The report indicates a focus on climate and sustainability-related performance ambitions, with a target to achieve net zero across financed emissions by 2050[7]. - Retail Banking provided £2.1 billion in climate and sustainable funding in H1 2025, supporting properties with an EPC rating of A or B[45]. - Private Banking & Wealth Management provided £0.2 billion in climate and sustainable funding in H1 2025, focusing on residential mortgages and wholesale transactions[54]. - Climate and sustainable funding and financing amounted to £14.6 billion in H1 2025, supporting customers in the transition to net zero[61]. Impairment and Credit Quality - The loan impairment rate is expected to remain below 20 basis points, with RWAs targeted in the range of £190-195 billion by the end of 2025[27]. - The net impairment charge for Q2 2025 was £193 million, representing 19 basis points of gross customer loans, with an expected credit loss (ECL) coverage ratio of 0.87%[39]. - The total ECL provision for Stage 1 and Stage 2 modelled exposures was £1,389 million as of June 30, 2025, with a variance of -£84 million compared to actual total ECL[120]. - The overall ECL provision is sensitive to model inputs and economic assumptions, particularly during periods of economic volatility[112]. - The ECL provisions for Stage 3 loans were £2.04 billion, reflecting a significant risk in this category[139]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - Future outlook includes a focus on new product development, with an expected investment of $30 million in technology enhancements[19]. - The company plans to expand its market presence, targeting a 25% increase in market share over the next fiscal year[19]. - A strategic acquisition is in the pipeline, aimed at enhancing the company's capabilities in risk management, with a budget allocation of $50 million[19]. - The company aims to enhance its capital distribution targets and manage impairment loss rates effectively[3].