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高盛:德银(DB.US)今年迄今已跑赢大盘 下调评级至“中性”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 02:21
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs downgraded Deutsche Bank's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and Deutsche Commercial Bank's rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to their stock performance exceeding the market since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European banking sector has risen nearly 50% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the overall European stock market [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include strong growth momentum, a more stable and steeper interest rate trajectory, and ongoing performance growth and rating upgrades [1] Group 2: Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for European banks, projecting an average potential stock price increase of about 10% over the next 12 months, with some stocks rated "Buy" expected to rise by approximately 20% [1] - Stocks rated "Buy" include UBS Group, ING Group, Lloyds Banking Group, BNP Paribas, National Westminster Group, Santander Bank, and HSBC [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Environment - The interest rate curve has steepened this year, with expectations for final rates trending towards a range-bound movement, enhancing investor confidence in the medium-term outlook for net interest income [1]
5 Low-Leverage Stocks to Watch Ahead of a Possible September Rate Cut
ZACKS· 2025-08-25 15:11
Core Insights - U.S. stock indices rose over 1.5% on August 22, 2025, following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication of a potential interest rate cut next month, leading to increased trader optimism and a notable rise in Wall Street [1][10] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to consider low-leverage stocks such as NatWest Group, Sterling Infrastructure, Luxfer Holdings, Evercore, and Hillman Solutions Corp. as safer investment options due to their lower risk profile [2][10] - The focus on low-leverage stocks is based on the understanding that companies with excessive debt financing may face significant losses during economic downturns [5][6] Low-Leverage Stocks - Leverage refers to the practice of borrowing capital for operations and expansion, typically through debt financing, which can pose risks if returns do not exceed interest costs [4][5] - A lower debt-to-equity ratio indicates improved solvency and reduced financial risk for a company, making it a crucial metric for investors [7][9] Company Highlights - **NatWest Group (NWG)**: Announced a £140 million lending for essential upgrades to the UK's Haweswater Aqueduct, with a projected 20.1% sales improvement for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.9% [15][16] - **Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)**: Reported a 21% year-over-year revenue increase and a 40.8% surge in earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a projected 45.9% earnings improvement for 2025 [17][18] - **Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)**: Achieved a 5.8% increase in adjusted net sales and a 25% rise in adjusted earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 8% [19][20] - **Evercore (EVR)**: Reported a 20.7% increase in adjusted revenues and a 30.4% rise in earnings for Q2 2025, with a projected 15.9% sales improvement for 2025 [20][21] - **Hillman Solutions (HLMN)**: Experienced a 6.2% sales increase and a 6.3% growth in adjusted earnings per share for Q2 2025, with a projected 6.6% sales improvement for 2025 [22][23]
NWG vs. NRDBY: Which Stock Should Value Investors Buy Now?
ZACKS· 2025-08-07 16:40
Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Banks - Foreign sector may consider NatWest Group (NWG) or Nordea Bank AB (NRDBY) as potential investment opportunities, with a closer examination needed to determine which stock is more appealing to value investors [1] Valuation Metrics - NatWest Group has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while Nordea Bank AB has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - NWG has a forward P/E ratio of 8.84, compared to NRDBY's forward P/E of 9.25, suggesting NWG may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for NWG is 0.81, indicating better expected earnings growth relative to its price, while NRDBY has a PEG ratio of 2.99, suggesting it may be overvalued [5] - NWG's P/B ratio is 1.02, which is lower than NRDBY's P/B of 1.51, further supporting NWG's valuation as more attractive [6] - Based on these metrics, NWG has a Value grade of B, while NRDBY has a Value grade of D, indicating NWG is the superior value option [6][7] Earnings Outlook - NWG is currently experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which enhances its attractiveness in the Zacks Rank model [7]
Buy These 5 Low-Leverage Stocks Amid Tariff-Induced Uncertainty
ZACKS· 2025-08-06 14:36
Core Insights - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline of nearly 1% on August 5, 2025, due to weaker-than-expected services data and ongoing tariff uncertainties, particularly with Trump threatening tariffs as high as 250% on pharmaceuticals [1][10] - Despite market volatility, low-leverage stocks are highlighted as safer investment options during economic uncertainty, with specific companies recommended for their strong earnings growth and low debt levels [2][10] Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is currently facing challenges due to tariff-related uncertainties and weaker economic data, leading to a lack of confidence among investors [2][10] - The recent wave of corporate earnings that exceeded estimates has been overshadowed by tariff concerns, impacting overall market optimism [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider low-leverage stocks as a protective measure against potential economic downturns, with a focus on companies that exhibit solid earnings growth and lower debt-to-equity ratios [6][9] - The debt-to-equity ratio is emphasized as a critical metric for assessing financial risk, with lower ratios indicating better solvency [7][9] Recommended Low-Leverage Stocks - **NatWest Group (NWG)**: Collaborating with Google Cloud to enhance growth, with a projected 20.1% sales improvement for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.9% [15][16] - **Zions Bancorporation (ZION)**: Reported a 9% year-over-year increase in net interest income, with a 5% expected earnings growth for 2025 [17][18] - **Luxfer Holdings (LXFR)**: Achieved a 5.8% increase in adjusted net sales and a 25% rise in adjusted earnings per share, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 8% [19][20] - **Kingstone Companies (KINS)**: Declared a quarterly cash dividend, indicating strong financial health, with a projected 37.9% improvement in both sales and earnings for 2025 [21][22] - **Ingredion Inc. (INGR)**: Reported a 1% increase in adjusted operating income, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 11% and a 1% sales improvement expected for 2025 [23][24]
NatWest Q2 Earnings: Still Reaping The Benefits Of Growing Hedge Income
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-25 18:37
Group 1 - NatWest Group reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with revenue and profits exceeding analysts' expectations [1] - The bank's performance indicates a positive trend in its financial health and operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - The focus on long-term investment strategies is emphasized, particularly in high-quality earnings stocks [2] - The investment approach includes a preference for dividend and income-generating stocks [2]
NatWest Group(NWG) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-25 13:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer lending grew 3.2% to GBP 384 billion in H1 2025, while customer deposits increased by 1% to GBP 436 billion [3] - Income rose 13.7% year on year to GBP 8 billion, and costs decreased by 1.4% to GBP 3.9 billion, resulting in an operating profit of GBP 3.6 billion and attributable profit of GBP 2.5 billion [3] - The return on tangible equity was reported at 18.1% [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail Banking and Private Banking mortgage balances grew by GBP 1.3 billion, with unsecured balances increasing by GBP 2.7 billion due to the addition of Sainsbury's Bank portfolios [11][12] - In the commercial and institutional segment, gross customer loans increased by GBP 4.6 billion, driven by project finance and sustainable financing [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank attracted over 100,000 new customers through organic growth and the acquisition of Sainsbury's Bank, adding approximately 1 million new customers [5] - The deposit mix remained stable, with non-interest-bearing balances at 31% and term accounts increasing from 16% to 17% [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver GBP 200 billion of climate and transition finance by 2030, having already exceeded its previous target of GBP 100 billion [6] - A strategic collaboration with AWS and Accenture was announced to enhance data capabilities and customer engagement through AI [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a loan impairment rate below 20 basis points for the full year, citing strong performance in the diversified prime loan book [16][17] - The company anticipates full-year total income, excluding notable items, to exceed GBP 16 billion, with a return on tangible equity expected to be greater than 16.5% [11][17] Other Important Information - An interim dividend of GBP 9.5 was announced along with a share buyback program of GBP 750 million [4] - The CET1 ratio stands at 13.6%, with a total capital ratio of 19.7% and a total MREL ratio of 32.4% [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will there be another small transaction before the end of the year? - The company has issued GBP 750 million and may consider a cleanup transaction later this year or early next year, depending on risk weights [32][34][35] Question: Concerns about the rating gap between S&P and other agencies? - Management acknowledged the gap and expressed a desire for S&P to align with other agencies, citing the punitive nature of S&P's rating methodology for UK banks [38][39][40] Question: Inquiry about issuance plans and CET1 buffer? - The company remains flexible regarding currency for future issuances, with current attractive options in dollars and sterling [48][50][51] - Management indicated that CET1 targets are regularly reviewed in light of regulatory changes, with no specific insights on potential changes to the countercyclical buffer [49][50][60]
NatWest Group(NWG) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-25 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer lending grew by 3.2% to GBP 384 billion in H1 2025, while customer deposits increased by 1% to GBP 436 billion [3] - Income rose by 13.7% year-on-year to GBP 8 billion, and costs decreased by 1.4% to GBP 3.9 billion, resulting in an operating profit of GBP 3.6 billion and an attributable profit of GBP 2.5 billion [3][4] - The return on tangible equity was reported at 18.1% [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail Banking and Private Banking mortgage balances grew by GBP 1.3 billion, with unsecured balances increasing by GBP 2.7 billion due to the addition of Sainsbury's Bank portfolios [11][12] - In Commercial and Institutional, gross customer loans increased by GBP 4.6 billion, driven by project finance and sustainable financing [12] - Overall income, excluding notable items, grew by 1.5% to GBP 4 billion in Q2 2025 [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average liquidity coverage ratio was 150%, indicating a strong liquidity position [21] - The loan to deposit ratio stood at 86%, reflecting a well-diversified funding base [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver GBP 200 billion of climate and transition finance by 2030, having already exceeded its previous target [6] - A strategic collaboration with AWS and Accenture was announced to enhance data capabilities and customer engagement through AI [6] - The company is focused on bank-wide simplification to improve customer and colleague experience [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects total income for the full year to exceed GBP 16 billion, with a return on tangible equity greater than 16.5% [11][17] - The company anticipates two further base rate cuts this year, with rates expected to reach 3.75% by year-end [10] - Management expressed confidence in the credit portfolio, expecting a loan impairment rate below 20 basis points for the full year [16] Other Important Information - An interim dividend of GBP 9.5 was announced along with a share buyback program of GBP 750 million [4] - The CET1 ratio was reported at 13.6%, with a total capital ratio of 19.7% [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expected issuance before the end of the year - The company has issued GBP 750 million and may consider a cleanup transaction later this year or early next year depending on risk weights [34][36] Question: Concerns about rating gaps between agencies - Management acknowledged the gap with S&P and emphasized the strength of the balance sheet, aiming for an upgrade based on strong financial performance [39][40] Question: Economic assumptions and loan growth - Management indicated that while they have not provided specific guidance for 2026, they are currently operating closer to the lower end of the impairment range [60] - Project finance is described as lumpy but supported by strong relationships [63] Question: NSFR and ring-fencing implications - The NSFR is high due to a strong deposit franchise, and management does not expect changes in ring-fencing to impact the competitive nature of the mortgage market [69]
NatWest Group(NWG) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-25 12:00
Financial Performance - Attributable profit reached £2.5 billion in H1'25, an 18.5% increase compared to H1'24[5, 10] - Total income, excluding notable items, increased by 13.7% to £8.0 billion in H1'25[5, 10] - Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) improved to 18.1% compared to 16.4% in H1'24[5, 10] - Earnings per share increased by 28% to 30.9p in H1'25[5] Balance Sheet Strength - Customer loans increased by 3.2% to £384 billion compared to December 2024[5] - Customer deposits increased by 1.0% to £436 billion compared to December 2024[5] - Assets Under Management (AUMA) increased by 5.9% to £52 billion compared to December 2024[5] - The CET1 ratio is strong at 13.6%[5, 8] Strategic Initiatives - The group added 1.1 million customers, including over 100,000 organically, bringing the total to over 20 million[7] - The group delivered £110 billion of Climate and Sustainable Finance and introduced a new £200 billion Climate and Transition Finance target[7] - A £750 million share buyback program was announced, equivalent to 40bps of surplus capital[8]
NatWest Group(NWG) - 2025 Q2 - Quarterly Report
2025-07-25 11:32
Table of Contents Report of Foreign Private Issuer Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 25 July 2025 Commission file number: 001-10306 This report on Form 6-K, except for any information contained on any websites linked or documents referred to in this report, shall be deemed incorporated by reference into the company's Registration Statement on Form F-3 (File No. 333-284008) and to be a part thereof from the date on which this report is filed, to the extent not supersede ...
NatWest Group(NWG) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-25 09:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer lending grew by 3.2% to GBP 384 billion, while customer deposits increased by 1% to GBP 436 billion [4][5] - Assets under management and administration rose by 5.9% to GBP 52 billion [5] - Income increased by 13.7% to GBP 8 billion, and costs decreased by 1.4% to GBP 3.9 billion, resulting in an operating profit of GBP 3.6 billion and an attributable profit of GBP 2.5 billion [5][6] - Return on tangible equity was reported at 18.1%, with earnings per share up 28% to 31p [5][6] - An interim dividend of 9.5p was announced, reflecting a 58% increase [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail Banking saw a 3% increase in lending and a 1% rise in deposits, with a 4% increase in application share for mortgages [8][10] - Commercial and Institutional lending grew by 4% and deposits by 2%, driven by project finance and sustainable finance [10][11] - Private Banking and Wealth Management experienced a 2% increase in lending and net new inflows of GBP 1.5 billion, representing 8.1% of opening assets under management [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank attracted over 100,000 new customers through organic growth and the Sainsbury's transaction, which added approximately 1 million new customers [7][8] - The bank's share in credit cards increased from 9.7% to 11% due to the Sainsbury's acquisition [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined growth, simplification, and enhancing customer experience through digitalization and technology upgrades [11][12][14] - A new target of delivering GBP 200 billion in climate and transition finance by 2030 was announced, building on previous commitments [11] - The bank is actively managing its balance sheet and has reduced its cost-to-income ratio from around 56% to 49% [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to continue driving lending growth despite a challenging UK economic backdrop [50][51] - The bank upgraded its 2025 guidance for income to over GBP 16 billion and return on tangible equity above 16.5% [16][30] - Management noted that the diversified prime loan book is performing well, with expectations for a loan impairment rate below 20 basis points for the full year [27][30] Other Important Information - The bank's CET1 ratio remained stable at 13.6%, with strong capital generation allowing for investments and shareholder returns [6][29] - A new share buyback program of GBP 750 million was announced, bringing total distributions to shareholders in the first half to around GBP 1.5 billion [6][29] Q&A Session Summary Question: On deposit flows and management of yields - Management acknowledged the impact of the Sainsbury's acquisition on deposit growth and confirmed that overall deposit share remained stable despite some current account losses [39][40] Question: On lending outlook and economic backdrop - Management expressed confidence in continued lending growth, supported by strong performance in both retail and commercial sectors [50][51] Question: On capital management and potential M&A - Management clarified that there is no intention to build a buffer for M&A, focusing instead on organic growth and shareholder returns [53][54] Question: On revenue guidance and drivers - Management indicated that the upgraded revenue guidance is supported by continued volume growth, the full run rate from Sainsbury's, and higher structural hedge income [78][81] Question: On mortgage spreads and market dynamics - Management noted that mortgage spreads are stabilizing and emphasized the importance of broadening the mortgage proposition to capture market opportunities [64][66]