Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the outlook for 2026 and the dynamics affecting Brent crude prices and supply-demand balance. Core Insights and Arguments - A surplus of approximately **1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d)** is expected in 2026, which is lower than other estimates (IEA: 3.8 mb/d, Argus: 3.6 mb/d) but still significant, comparable to the excess during the 2008/09 financial crisis [9][18] - The surplus is anticipated to peak in **mid-2026** and gradually decline by late 2027 as demand growth erodes the excess supply [9][60] - Brent prices are forecasted to trend lower, reaching the mid-**$50s** by mid-2026, with specific quarterly forecasts indicating **$57.5** in Q1 2026 and **$55.0** in Q2 2026 [5][17] - The oil market is expected to experience a **contango** structure, where future prices are higher than current prices, due to rising inventories [9][15] Supply Dynamics - Non-OPEC supply growth was robust in 2025, with an increase of **1.2 mb/d** compared to 2024, leading to a total non-OPEC oil liquids supply growth of **1.8 mb/d** [33][34] - OPEC production is projected to remain stable at around **29.8 mb/d** in 2026, with limited growth potential due to eroded spare capacity [50][53][66] - The report highlights that geopolitical risks have historically not led to significant production losses, suggesting that the current supply dynamics are primarily driven by market fundamentals rather than geopolitical events [15][86] Demand Insights - Global oil demand growth is estimated at **1.05 mb/d** for 2025, slightly below the long-term trend, with expectations for **0.9 mb/d** growth in 2026 [22][27] - The divergence between total oil liquids and crude oil demand is noted, with a shift towards more LPG and ethane consumption, impacting refinery throughput [28][27] Inventory and Pricing Locations - Significant inventory builds have occurred, with approximately **424 million barrels** identified since January 2025, including **82 million barrels** in China [20][22] - Key pricing locations have seen limited inventory increases, with commercial OECD stocks rising only **65 million barrels** during the same period [73][78] - The expectation is that inventories in key pricing locations will eventually reflect the surplus, despite current geographical disparities in inventory builds [68][70] OPEC's Strategic Focus - OPEC's primary focus in 2026 will be to establish a new framework for cooperation in 2027 and beyond, rather than aggressively cutting production [80][81] - The report suggests that OPEC may prioritize long-term agreements over immediate production cuts, which could lead to a more stable market environment in 2027 [85] Conclusion - The oil market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2026, with Brent prices likely to decline due to rising inventories and stable supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources. The geopolitical landscape, while uncertain, is not expected to significantly disrupt supply flows, and OPEC's strategic focus will shift towards long-term cooperation rather than short-term production cuts.

Summary of North American Oil & Gas Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the North American Oil & Gas industry, providing predictions and insights for 2026, including stock performance and commodity prices [2][4]. Key Predictions and Insights 1. **Crude Oil Price Outlook**: - Crude oil prices are expected to show a two-half performance in 2026, with a forecast of narrowing oversupply leading to a balanced market by 2027. Current WTI prices are projected to remain in the $55-60/bbl range, with potential declines towards $50 before recovery [5][6]. 2. **Energy Sector Performance**: - The energy sector requires WTI prices of $65-70 by year-end 2026 to outperform the S&P 500. The previous threshold of $80 was not met, but the sector has shown resilience with an average WTI of approximately $65 in 2025 [5][6]. 3. **Natural Gas Market Dynamics**: - A forecast of $4.00/mmbtu for Henry Hub natural gas prices in 2026, with improvements in basis differentials due to increased LNG exports and new pipeline capacities. Projects like GCX Expansion and Blackcomb are expected to enhance capacity significantly [5][6]. 4. **Preference for Natural Gas E&Ps**: - Natural Gas Exploration & Production (E&Ps) are favored over Oil E&Ps due to long-term demand growth and stable pricing expectations. The outlook suggests that natural gas prices can remain flat at $3.50-4.00 long-term, supporting cash flow generation for E&Ps [5][6]. 5. **Activity Levels in North America**: - The U.S. rig count is stable, indicating that activity levels are bottoming out. Despite some expected weakness in early 2026, higher activity levels are anticipated in the second half of 2026 as crude oil and natural gas prices improve [5][6]. 6. **Balance Sheet Strength**: - Companies with strong balance sheets are expected to outperform, especially if crude oil prices remain weak in the first half of 2026. Balance sheet improvements are seen as a key driver for stock performance [5][6]. 7. **Shift from Capex to Buybacks**: - Should WTI prices decline to $50, companies are likely to reduce capital expenditures and increase stock buybacks, which could be beneficial for long-term investor returns [5][6]. 8. **Increased Exploration Activity**: - A resurgence in exploration activity is anticipated as companies seek resources outside core areas due to depth concerns in existing fields. Major players like EOG and MUR are expected to lead this trend [5][6]. 9. **Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)**: - A reversal in M&A activity is expected in 2026, with more public-to-public transactions aimed at improving resource quality and balance sheet strength. This trend is anticipated to ramp up as the number of private E&Ps available for acquisition declines [5][6]. 10. **Impact of Midterm Elections**: - The outcomes of the midterm elections in late 2026 could influence the energy sector's outlook for 2027, with a Republican majority likely maintaining current supportive policies, while a Democratic shift could lead to changes detrimental to crude oil prices [5][6]. Additional Insights - The call also included detailed financial metrics for various companies in the sector, highlighting their market performance, EV/EBITDA multiples, and free cash flow yields, which are critical for assessing investment opportunities [10]. - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on balancing supply and demand dynamics, improving financial health of companies, and strategic shifts in capital allocation [5][6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil markets, focusing on Venezuela and Russia, and the implications of U.S. sanctions on their oil exports [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sanctions on Venezuela**: The recent drop in WTI oil prices to $55/bbl has prompted the Trump administration to consider enforcing sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports. The administration may monitor Venezuelan tankers or implement stricter sanctions, but the extent of enforcement remains uncertain [1][2][4]. - **Quantitative Impact of Sanctions**: The term "sanctioned" in Trump's statement limits the blockade's impact to approximately 0.4 million barrels per day (mbd) of Venezuela's heavy crude exports and 0.1 mbd of product exports, primarily fuel oil [1][5]. - **U.S. Military Presence**: An increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean is noted, which may influence oil futures and suggests a potential political transition in Venezuela [1][7]. - **Russian Oil Exports**: Despite sanctions, Russian crude exports are estimated at around 3.5 mbd in December, only slightly below previous highs. Product exports have also recovered to approximately 2.1 mbd, supported by refinery throughput of 5.3–5.4 mbd [1][21]. - **Sanctions' Effect on Trading Structures**: Sanctions have altered trading structures rather than significantly reducing export volumes. Exports are being rerouted through new intermediaries, which increases transaction costs and clearance times [1][22][28]. - **Economic Pressure on Russia**: Russia's upstream sector is experiencing declining gross profits, dropping from about $57/bbl at the start of 2025 to below $30/bbl now. This trend may have more significant long-term implications than the sanctions themselves [1][34]. Additional Important Insights - **Potential for Venezuelan Production Recovery**: In a post-Maduro scenario, production could initially drop by up to 50% due to operational disruptions but may rebound to around 1.2 mbd within months if political stability is restored [1][11][16]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The return of former partners, including Chinese companies, could lead to increased production levels in Venezuela, contingent on political changes and new investments [1][15]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The oil supply and demand balance for 2025 and beyond indicates a potential increase in global oil supply, with Venezuela representing a significant upside risk if political conditions improve [1][37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the oil markets concerning Venezuela and Russia, the implications of U.S. sanctions, and potential future developments in the industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Expert Call on IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the **Global Oil and Gas** industry, particularly insights from the **IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025** [1] Core Insights 1. **Rising Electrification and Energy Demand** - Incremental energy demand growth over the next decade is expected to primarily come from emerging markets outside of China - Key demand drivers include the expanding car fleet, plastic production, air-conditioning uptake, and rapid data center build-out - Electricity demand is accelerating globally, with low-emissions generation expanding faster than electricity demand, especially in Asia - Renewables, particularly solar PV, are growing rapidly, while nuclear energy is regaining momentum, and natural gas usage is increasing - Coal demand is projected to peak by 2030 before declining, highlighting the need for dispatchable capacity and enhanced power system flexibility [2] 2. **Diverging Pathways for Oil Demand in Road Transport** - The WEO 2025 presents differing oil demand projections under the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) and Stated Policies Scenarios (STEPS) - Under CPS, oil demand is expected to grow until 2050, while STEPS indicates demand will flatten by 2030, later than previous forecasts - The divergence is attributed to the transport sector outside China, with CPS assuming lower global electric vehicle (EV) uptake (43% by 2040) compared to STEPS (55% by 2040) - The IEA assumes an EU internal combustion engine (ICE) ban in 2035, which could impact both scenarios if pushed back to 2040 - The agency updates key cost components annually to reflect declining trends in EV prices and other inputs [3] 3. **Natural Gas and Coal Dynamics** - Significant changes in natural gas and coal dynamics were noted, reflecting shifts in power sector policies, including reduced renewable incentives and improved LNG competitiveness - Global long-term energy demand is expected to plateau, with regional and fuel-specific variations - In the STEPS scenario, global natural gas demand is projected to peak after 2030, while some Southeast Asian markets may not reach a peak - Gas demand uncertainty is linked to the power sector, particularly the extent of coal-to-gas switching versus direct renewable adoption - An oversupplied LNG market is anticipated to lower prices, stimulating demand in Asia [4] Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks associated with oil and natural gas price volatility, refining margins, and exploration risks [6] - The document includes disclaimers regarding the potential conflicts of interest and the independence of UBS's research products [7][36] - The report is intended for professional clients and does not constitute investment advice [27][50]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the Brent crude oil market and its dynamics in relation to global supply and demand factors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Brent Crude Price Decline**: Brent crude prices have fallen below $60 per barrel, marking the lowest level in four years due to increased oil stockpiles and rising supply risks from Russia and Venezuela [3][4]. - **Global Stock Builds**: The pace of global visible stock builds has accelerated to 2.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the last 90 days, resulting in global oil storage reaching a four-year high [3][4]. - **Shifts in Oil Purchases**: Increased purchases of discounted Russian oil by China and India are freeing up more crude for OECD buyers, impacting pricing dynamics [3][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: Higher exports from the Middle East and Brazil, along with a moderation in China's demand, have contributed to softer crude prices in Asia compared to the Atlantic region [3][4]. - **Contango Formation**: The combination of a large global surplus and seasonal builds in OECD is likely to flip Brent and WTI prompt timespreads into contango [3][4]. - **Long-Term Supply Risks**: Escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with potential negotiations for peace in Ukraine, present upside risks to long-term oil supply from these regions [3][4]. - **Net Supply Changes**: Trackable net supply has increased by 1.0 mb/d over the last week, driven by lower demand from OECD Europe and China, alongside higher production from Russia [3][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Refined Products Margins**: Margins for refined products have declined due to increased refinery output in the US, China, and Kuwait, and ongoing peace talks affecting market sentiment [4][5]. - **OECD Commercial Stocks**: OECD commercial stocks now stand at 2,812 million barrels, which is 56 million barrels below the end-of-December forecast [9][13]. - **China and OECD Demand**: The demand nowcast for China oil decreased by 0.3 mb/d to 17.4 mb/d, while OECD Europe oil demand decreased by 0.6 mb/d to 13.3 mb/d [39][45]. - **Oil Rig Counts**: The US oil rig count increased by 1 to 414, while Canada’s count decreased by 3 to 123 [10][9]. Conclusion - The oil market is currently experiencing significant fluctuations due to various geopolitical and economic factors. The decline in Brent prices, coupled with rising stock levels and changing demand dynamics, suggests a complex environment for investors and stakeholders in the oil industry. The potential for increased supply from Russia and Venezuela, along with shifts in purchasing patterns, will be critical to monitor in the coming months [3][4][10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **North America Energy Services & Equipment (ESE)** sector, with a particular emphasis on the outlook for 2026 and the dynamics of oil and gas markets [1][4][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Outlook**: North America is nearing a bottom in terms of oil prices, with international onshore growth driven by OPEC activity. However, offshore growth is expected to be muted due to moderating efficiency gains [1][5]. - **Earnings and Valuations**: The ESE sector has seen a rally of approximately **30%** since the lows post-Liberation Day, resulting in year-to-date gains of about **5%**. Despite this, earnings estimates have fallen, leading to higher EV/EBITDA multiples and tighter free cash flow yields, now aligning with historical median levels [4][15]. - **Spending Trends**: North American onshore spending is expected to remain constrained, while international activity is projected to be flat in 2026 before increasing in 2027, driven by OPEC+ activity and unconventional gas opportunities [5][10][26]. - **Offshore Activity**: The outlook for offshore spending is more cautious, particularly for deepwater projects, due to anticipated efficiency gains that will limit the need for additional rigs [9][10][26]. Key Themes for 2026 - **Power and Data Centers**: There is an emerging opportunity in power generation, with demand expected to grow at a **2.6% CAGR** through 2035, driven by data center growth and electrification. Companies like HAL and LBRT are positioned to provide power solutions directly to end-users [10][35][41]. - **Oil and Gas Price Forecasts**: Oil prices are expected to decline by approximately **20%** since the start of 2025, with a forecasted surplus of **~2 mb/d** in 2026, potentially reaching **~3 mb/d** in the first half of 2026. Brent prices are anticipated to drop to around **$60/bbl** before a recovery begins in mid-2027 [10][63][64]. - **Rig Counts and Efficiency**: The total US rig count has decreased by **~7%** since the beginning of 2025, with oil-directed rigs down by **~14%** and gas-focused activity up by **25%**. Efficiency improvements have led to a reduction in drilling days per well [77][80][86]. Company-Specific Insights - **Top Picks**: HAL is identified as a top pick due to its exposure to the Middle East and power generation opportunities. The strategic partnership with VoltaGrid is highlighted as a key differentiator [14][54]. - **NOV Downgrade**: NOV has been downgraded to equal-weight due to its significant offshore capex exposure and less resilience in oil and gas production opex compared to peers [14][54]. Additional Important Points - **Investment Strategy**: The report emphasizes a preference for stocks with defensive and unique revenue streams, favoring gas over oil-focused activities and spending tied to existing production [54][43]. - **Long-term Trends**: The report notes that oil capex represents only **~55%** of revenues for the covered companies, with significant contributions from gas capex and non-upstream markets, indicating a shift in revenue dynamics [45][50]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections for the North America Energy Services & Equipment sector as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the current market landscape.

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the oil and gas industry, specifically the dynamics between Oil Services, Big Oil, and Exploration & Production (E&Ps) sectors - The preferred sector strategy is Oil Services > Big Oil > E&Ps, indicating a bullish outlook on Oil Services due to expected revenue growth and margin expansion [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - **Brent Oil Price Forecast**: A forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent oil in 2026 is expected to create significant pressure on free cash flow (FCF) across sectors, with E&Ps facing the most strain, followed by Big Oils and then Oil Services [1][2] - **Revenue Growth**: European Oilfield Services (OFS) are projected to see a 5% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, while Big Oils are expected to experience nearly flat production growth [1][9] - **Earnings Estimates**: The average year-over-year EBITDA growth is estimated at +5% for OFS, -4% for Big Oil, and -10% for E&Ps under the $60/bbl Brent forecast [2][9] - **Capex Trends**: Industry capital expenditures (capex) are expected to flatline, further squeezing FCF and impacting cash returns to shareholders, with Big Oil buybacks projected to decrease by nearly 25% year-over-year [2][9] Company-Specific Insights - **TotalEnergies (TTE)**: Identified as a top pick due to its resilience and undervaluation, with a breakeven oil price expected to decline through organic growth in oil and gas volumes [3][4] - **Galp**: Noted for its significant production growth, projected at over 10% in 2026, which stands out among European Big Oils [4][36] - **Saipem**: Expected to benefit from margin expansion and a strong order book, with a projected 20% year-over-year EBITDA growth in 2026 [26][28] Additional Important Insights - **E&P Sector Vulnerability**: The E&P sector is facing significant challenges, with many companies carrying high debt levels and cash flow break-evens above the $60/bbl forecast, leading to limited defensive options [24][46] - **Dividend Yields**: Some E&Ps are offering double-digit dividend yields as a form of protection against market volatility, with Ithaca Energy highlighted for its strong balance sheet and low break-even price of $45/bbl [45][46] - **Balance Sheet Pressure**: The overall balance sheet strength of Big Oils is under scrutiny, with increasing net debt levels despite asset disposals, indicating a need for more inorganic growth cushions [23][24] Conclusion - The oil and gas industry is navigating a challenging environment with a $60/bbl Brent oil price forecast, impacting cash flows and shareholder returns across sectors. Oil Services are positioned to perform better than Big Oil and E&Ps, with specific companies like TotalEnergies and Galp standing out for their growth potential and resilience.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Oil Market - **Source**: EIA's December STEO report Core Insights 1. **Market Balance**: The EIA's December STEO indicates a bearish outlook, projecting a looser market balance in 2025 by 0.4 million barrels per day (Mb/d) to 2.2 Mb/d, due to downward revisions in demand and increased supply [2] 2. **Price Forecast**: Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $55 per barrel in Q1 2026, slightly lower than the previous forecast of $54, with prices expected to remain near this level throughout 2026 [2] 3. **Demand Growth**: Demand growth forecasts for 2025 have been revised up by 85,000 barrels per day (kb/d) to 1.1 Mb/d, primarily due to a lower base in 2024, with total demand for 2025 revised down by 203 kb/d to 103.9 Mb/d [3] 4. **Non-OPEC Supply Growth**: Non-OPEC supply growth projections for 2025 have been increased by 20 kb/d to 1.9 Mb/d, driven by growth in Mexico and the US, although 2026 growth has been revised down by 33 kb/d to 1.0 Mb/d [4] 5. **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ crude output fell by 174 kb/d month-over-month to an average of 37.5 Mb/d in November, with a planned adjustment of -99 kb/d. Russia and Saudi Arabia led the declines [5] Additional Important Information 1. **US Crude Supply**: US crude supply is projected to rise by 370 kb/d in 2025 to 13.6 Mb/d, before a slight decline to 13.5 Mb/d in 2026. Recent drilling activity has shown a decrease in wells drilled and DUCs [4] 2. **Market Volatility**: Oil prices are noted to be highly unpredictable due to various political, geological, and economic factors, leading to significant volatility in the short, medium, and long term [7] 3. **Analyst Team**: The report was prepared by a team of analysts from UBS, including Nayoung Kim, Henri Patricot, and Joshua Stone, indicating a collaborative effort in the analysis [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the oil market's current state, future projections, and underlying factors influencing these trends.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the oil market, particularly the impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil exports and the dynamics of global oil supply and demand. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resilience of Russian Crude Flows**: Despite the expansion of sanctions and the transition deadline on November 21, Russian crude oil exports to Asia, especially from Rosneft, have remained resilient. China and India continue to import significant volumes, offsetting declines from Lukoil [2][3][5]. - **Infrastructure and Logistics**: Rosneft has established a robust infrastructure, including a wide network of intermediaries and shipping capabilities, which has allowed it to maintain crude flows despite regulatory challenges. This contrasts with Lukoil, which has seen a sharp decline in exports [2][15]. - **Market Reactions**: Turkey is the only major market adhering strictly to new sanctions, while Asian refiners are focusing on pricing and logistics rather than the seller's identity [2][3]. - **Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Disruption**: A late-November outage at the CPC reduced throughput from 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd) to 0.9 mbd, jeopardizing December Kazakh crude exports, which typically average 1.5 mbd. Kazakhstan can redirect some volumes, but not enough to fully compensate for CPC constraints [2][57][59]. - **Price Differentials**: Following the sanctions, price differentials for major Russian crude grades have widened significantly, with Urals DAP India and ESPO CFR China trading at steep discounts [4][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Buyer Differentiation**: India and Turkey have largely stopped purchasing Lukoil barrels, while Rosneft continues to see strong demand. This is attributed to deeper discounts and logistical flexibility from Rosneft [15][19]. - **Stable Imports Post-Sanctions**: Combined imports of Russian crude into China, India, and Turkey have remained stable, with a slight increase of approximately 50,000 barrels per day (kbd) post-November 21 [14][23]. - **Refined Product Exports**: Russian refined product exports remain subdued, averaging around 1.9 mbd, significantly below the summer average of 2.4 mbd. This decline is attributed to both sanctions and domestic logistical issues [38][39]. - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests that as temporary constraints ease, refined product exports could stabilize in January, supported by the expiration of the diesel ban for non-producers and a normalized domestic fuel market [42]. Conclusion - The oil market is currently navigating complex dynamics due to sanctions on Russian oil, with varying impacts on different companies and countries. Rosneft's ability to adapt and maintain exports contrasts sharply with Lukoil's struggles, highlighting the importance of infrastructure and market strategies in the current environment.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil refining industry** and **crude shipping** dynamics, particularly focusing on the **Chinese market** and **geopolitical influences** affecting refining margins and shipping rates. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Volatility in Refining Margins**: - Overseas refining margins have experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with the UBS European Composite Refining Margin increasing from approximately **US$14/bbl** in late October to **US$20/bbl** in November, before dropping to **US$12.69/bbl** due to reduced risk premiums from Russia/Ukraine discussions [2][4][27]. 2. **Refinery Utilization Rates**: - Major refineries in China saw a **4.16 percentage point** month-over-month decrease in utilization, dropping to **79.22%** in November, attributed to maintenance and nearing completion of annual production plans. In contrast, utilization at teapot refineries increased by **3.79 percentage points** to **62.28%** [3][27]. 3. **Oil Product Prices and Exports**: - Brent crude futures remained stable at **US$64/bbl** in November. Domestic retail price ceilings for gasoline and diesel were raised by **Rmb55/t**. Year-over-year exports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene increased by **12%**, **56%**, and **18%** respectively in October [3][27]. 4. **Crude Import Quotas**: - The first batch of China's crude import quota for 2026 expanded by **29% year-over-year**, while the total import quota for non-state-owned crude trade remained stable at **260 million tonnes** for 2026 [3][27]. 5. **VLCC Rates and Shipping Dynamics**: - Current Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates are between **US$130,000 and US$140,000 per day**, supported by seasonal demand and limited supply. The shadow fleet is estimated to consist of over **1,400 tankers**, with about **500** not on the sanctions list [4][27]. 6. **Geopolitical Risks and Future Uncertainties**: - Potential easing of geopolitical conflicts, OPEC+ output decisions, and the profitability of Chinese refineries are highlighted as uncertainties that could impact VLCC rates and overall demand [4][27]. Additional Important Information - **Regulatory Environment**: The refining and retail oil product marketing industries in China are currently in oversupply, which poses risks related to competitive pressures and government policy changes, including potential windfall profit taxes and price controls [27]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes the seasonal nature of oil prices and refining margins, which can lead to volatile earnings in the sector from quarter to quarter [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the oil refining industry and its dynamics influenced by geopolitical factors and market conditions.