16 December 2025 | 10:04PM EST Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Brent in the 50s as Stocks Land and Upside Risks to Long-Term Supply Rise 1 Year-end tax rules have likely been weighing on US oil stocks as well. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sa ...

December 15, 2025 02:04 PM GMT Energy Services & Equipment | North America 2026 Outlook: Navigating an Oil Surplus Into 2026, we see NAm nearing a bottom, growth in int'l onshore driven by OPEC activity & take a more muted view on offshore as efficiency gains moderate upside. Against a challenging oil backdrop, we generally prefer exposure to more defensive & unique revenue streams. HAL to Top Pick, NOV to EW. Key Takeaways With this report, Joe Laetsch assumes coverage of North America Energy Services & Eq ...

Accessible version The Oil Gusher Who still grows in $60/bbl Brent world Industry Overview Key takeaways Sector strategy: We prefer Oil Services > Big Oil > E&Ps In our Year Ahead 2026 outlook, we show how our $60/bbl Brent oil price forecast squeezes Upstream FCF – leaving shareholder returns and / or balance sheet headrooms most directly under pressure among E&Ps > Big Oils > Oil Services (OFS): The latter sub-sector in our view benefits from positive topline growth as most effective cushion for a soft la ...

ab 9 December 2025 Global Research First Read Output from OPEC+8 carrying voluntary down -80kb/d In November, crude output from OPEC-9 and its partners fell by 174kb/d m/m to an average 37.5Mb/d. The total production change from the eight countries carrying the voluntary cuts was down 80kb/d m/m, vs. the planned adjustment (incl. new compensation plan) of -99kb/d. Russia led the decline, falling by 150kb/d m/m, followed by Saudi Arabia -100kb/d m/m, partly offset by increased Kazakh production (+120kb/ d). ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 04 December 2025 Oil Markets Weekly Two weeks in—assessing the early impact of Russia sanctions Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com Lyuba Savinova (1-212) 270-3781 lyuba.savinova@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA {[{-M8qAsmq5A_F8c4rlNai3e56JB7o430cCPuNzl61-I8ZuK6-CUCqX9qPqqCUkSFAFU1eyT-xi34wvYG3}]} • Despite the expansion of sanctions and the expiration of the transition window on 21 November, Russian crude flows i ...

ab Global Research owered by UBS Evidence Lab YES P 3 December 2025 China Oil Product Monthly Highly volatile overseas refining margins; uncertainty about 2026E VLCC rates Overseas refining margins sharply fluctuated amid geopolitical situation Overseas refining margins notably expanded in November. The UBS European Composite Refining Margin rose from cUS$14/bbl in late October to cUS$20/bbl, chiefly driven by drone attacks on Russian refining facilities, outages at some refineries, and US sanctions on Rosn ...

Global Research ab 30 November 2025 First Read Global Oil Fundamentals OPEC+ to raise transparency OPEC+ meetings confirm near-term production targets OPEC and its OPEC+ partners today held several meetings at which they confirmed the group's production targets. This is in line with market expectations, we believe, and should be neutral for oil prices. Firstly, the 40th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting confirmed the production level for all members till end 2026 (link). Secondly, the meeting of the 8 O ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the geopolitical risks affecting oil prices and exports, with a specific emphasis on Russia, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela [3][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Brent Crude Price Stability**: The Brent crude price has remained stable in the low $60s amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which have not yielded significant breakthroughs [3][5]. 2. **Russian Oil Export Revenue Decline**: - Seaborne oil exports from major Russian producers Lukoil and Rosneft have decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 42%, since the announcement of sanctions in October [3][5]. - Overall Russian oil export revenues in Rubles have fallen by approximately 50% year-to-date, dropping from 7.6% of GDP to 3.7% [3][5]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks Impacting Kazakhstan and Venezuela**: - Kazakhstan's oil exports may be affected by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's efforts to restore full capacity following drone attacks, with current exports potentially 0.5 mb/d below capacity [3][5]. - Venezuela's oil production has decreased by 0.5 mb/d over the last two months due to escalating military risks, although there is potential for long-term recovery with the return of Western investments [3][5]. 4. **US Oil Production Growth**: - The US EIA report for September indicated a year-over-year increase in US liquids production by 1.3 mb/d, with a nearly equal split between crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) [3][5]. - Public oil producers in the US reported nearly 2% higher Q3 oil production than previously expected [3][5]. 5. **Brazil's Record Oil Production**: Brazil's oil production rose by 0.76 mb/d, or 24% year-over-year, reaching a new record high in October [3][9]. 6. **Refined Products Margins**: European diesel margins have declined by $11 per barrel from mid-November highs, influenced by peace-talk headlines and expectations of increased Chinese product export quotas [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Oil Stocks**: Global visible oil stocks have increased by nearly 2 mb/d over the past 30 days, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3][9]. - **US Oil Rig Count**: The US oil rig count decreased by 12 to 407 last week, which may signal a slowdown in future production growth [12]. - **Future Supply Growth Expectations**: Strong supply growth is anticipated outside of OPEC+ and the US Lower 48 crude regions into the next year, with several new projects expected to come online [25][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the oil industry, geopolitical influences, and production trends.

Bernstein Energy & Power: Reshaping the Oil Services Industry - the 2000-50 journey (Part.3: Drill, Baby Drill: 2025-29) Guillaume Delaby +33 1 42 13 62 29 guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.com Deepa Venkateswaran, ACA +44 20 7676 6990 deepa.venkateswaran@bernsteinsg.com Irene Himona, Ph.D. +44 20 7762 5353 irene.himona@bernsteinsg.com Bob Brackett, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8422 bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil Nigania +91 226 842 1414 nikhil.nigania ...

Summary of China Oil Data Digest Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry in China, summarizing supply, demand, and trade data for August and September 2025 - Apparent oil demand in China grew by +5% year-over-year (YoY) during this period, driven by strong demand for petrochemicals, diesel, and jet fuel [2][3][6] Key Points Demand Dynamics - **Apparent Demand Growth**: - Apparent oil demand increased by 1.18 million barrels per day (mb/d) YoY in August and 840 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) YoY in September, both reflecting a +5% growth [6] - Diesel demand rose by 55 kb/d month-over-month (MoM) in August, marking the strongest annual growth for any month since early 2024, at +5% YoY [12][14] - Jet fuel demand reached a record high of 960 kb/d in August, up 70 kb/d YoY, supported by strong summer travel [31][38] Supply and Refinery Operations - **Refinery Runs**: - Chinese refinery runs hit a 17-month high in September, with a 310 kb/d increase MoM, driven by higher utilization rates from independent refineries [5][61] - State-owned refinery utilization reached a 24-month high in August, incentivized by healthy domestic margins and expectations of peak summer demand [130] - Independent refinery utilization also increased to a 7-month high in August, reaching 47.9% [135] Import and Export Trends - **Crude Imports**: - Chinese crude imports rose by 540 kb/d MoM in August, driven by record imports from Brazil at 1.23 mb/d [4][55] - However, imports dropped by 150 kb/d MoM in September due to lower volumes from Brazil and Iran [58][60] - **Product Exports**: - Diesel exports increased by +21% MoM due to improved export margins, while gasoline and jet fuel exports fell by ~9% MoM combined [6][72] - Overall refined product exports were up +100 kb/d YoY in August, supported by stronger refinery runs [72] Market Challenges - **Gasoline Demand**: - Apparent gasoline demand was down 80 kb/d YoY (-2%) in August, although it showed signs of recovery with an increase of 80 kb/d MoM [23][17] - The rollout of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) continues to impact gasoline demand negatively, with NEV penetration reaching ~55% in the domestic market [18][20] - **Trade Tensions**: - Resurgence in trade tensions between the US and China may raise uncertainty and increase costs for Chinese LPG importers, potentially softening LPG demand towards year-end [42][43] Future Outlook - **Refinery Capacity and Policy Changes**: - Anti-involution measures may threaten the existence of smaller independent refineries, potentially eliminating ~3 mb/d of capacity [140] - The government has set a goal to limit refining capacity at 1 billion tonnes per year from 2025, indicating limited room for growth post-2025 [141] Additional Insights - **Naphtha and LPG Demand**: - Naphtha demand rose to an all-time high of 2.36 mb/d in August, driven by new steam cracking capacity coming online [45] - LPG demand moderated by 50 kb/d MoM but remained at a record high for August of 2.86 mb/d [42] This summary encapsulates the key findings and trends in the Chinese oil market as reported in the recent data digest, highlighting both opportunities and challenges within the industry.