Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically oil inventory data in various regions including the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore, and Fujairah, UAE [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Total oil inventories decreased by 7.8 million barrels (mln bbls) last week, with crude stocks down by 6.5 mln bbls and refined product stocks down by 1.2 mln bbls [1][2][3]. - The draws in crude stocks were observed across all regions, indicating a widespread reduction in supply [3]. - Refined product stocks saw significant draws in the US and Singapore, with gasoline stocks specifically down by 2.8 mln bbls [3][4]. - Distillate stocks decreased by 0.2 mln bbls, primarily due to draws in the US and Asia [2][3]. - Fuel oil stocks increased by 2.5 mln bbls, driven by builds in all regions except Europe [3]. Regional Inventory Changes - US: Total oil stocks drew by 4.0 mln bbls, with crude stocks down by 2.4 mln bbls and gasoline stocks down by 1.2 mln bbls [22][79]. - Japan: Total oil stocks decreased by 3.3 mln bbls, with crude stocks down by 3.7 mln bbls [23]. - Europe: Total oil stocks drew by 0.6 mln bbls, with refined product stocks showing a mixed trend [33]. - Singapore: Product inventories decreased by 0.3 mln bbls [26]. - Fujairah: Product inventories increased by 0.5 mln bbls [24]. Weekly Changes Compared to Historical Averages - The week-over-week changes in crude and refined product stocks were compared to the 10-year average, showing a notable decrease in crude stocks relative to historical trends [6]. - US crude stocks drew by 1.6 mln bbls, which is less than the 10-year average draw of 4.8 mln bbls [6]. Production and Refinery Operations - US crude production rose by 60 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) to maintain levels at 13.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) [89]. - Refinery runs dropped significantly by 330 kb/d, aligning with 2024 levels for the same week, largely due to lower utilization rates and outages at specific refineries [77][87]. - Overall US refinery utilization rates fell by 2.0 percentage points week-over-week to 94.6% [87]. Demand Insights - Gasoline implied demand saw a strong week-over-week rise, attributed to increased consumption ahead of the Labour Day holiday [78]. - Diesel stocks drew by 1.8 mln bbls, driven by a significant uptick in implied diesel demand from 3.97 mbpd to 4.14 mbpd [78]. Additional Important Information - The report includes various exhibits summarizing oil inventory data from multiple sources, including EIA, PJK International, and others [1][2][3][4]. - The data reflects a comprehensive overview of oil stock changes, production levels, and demand trends, which are critical for understanding market dynamics and potential investment opportunities in the oil sector [1][2][3][4].

Summary of China Oil Data Digest - July 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry in China, summarizing supply, demand, and trade data for July 2025. Key Points Apparent Demand - Chinese apparent oil demand grew by +5% YoY in July, averaging 16.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) [2][5] - Demand was driven by strong performance in the petrochemical sector, fuel oil, and jet fuel, with jet fuel consumption increasing by +15% YoY due to robust summer travel [2][23] Crude Imports and Refinery Runs - Crude imports decreased by 1.0 mb/d MoM to 11.2 mb/d, influenced by higher prices from major suppliers like Saudi Arabia and the Atlantic basin [3][48] - Refinery runs declined by 300 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) MoM to 14.9 mb/d, but remained 7% higher YoY due to elevated run rates at state-owned refineries [4][54] Exports - Exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel increased by 190 kb/d MoM, supported by strong refinery output and improving export margins [5][63] - Gasoline exports reached 250 kb/d in July, up 15% MoM, while diesel and jet fuel exports also saw significant increases [63][75] Diesel Demand - Apparent diesel demand softened MoM but showed YoY growth of +2%, marking the first time there were two consecutive months of positive YoY growth since March 2024 [10][15] - The decline in MoM demand was attributed to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions impacting construction activity [11][12] LPG and Naphtha - Apparent LPG demand rose by +9% MoM, driven by improved demand from the petrochemical sector [35] - Apparent naphtha demand fell sharply by 14% MoM, reversing gains from June due to competitive pricing from LPG and ethane [38][43] Crude Production - Chinese crude production fell by 170 kb/d MoM but showed a steady YoY growth of +1% due to new field startups [46][48] Inventory Trends - Crude stocks built by 21.8 million barrels in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of crude builds, likely for strategic reasons [144] - Observable product inventories increased by 9.0 million barrels, driven by strong refinery output and soft domestic demand [145] Future Outlook - Jet fuel demand is expected to remain strong in August due to continued summer travel [29] - Diesel demand may face pressure from slowing export momentum and seasonal construction activity [13] - The independent refining sector is likely to see improved utilization rates due to better margins and increased capacity [121][122] Regulatory Environment - China has released two batches of clean product export quotas for 2025, totaling 34.2 million tonnes, with state-owned companies receiving the majority [87][88] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors, such as US sanctions on Iranian oil, affecting Chinese imports and refining strategies [49][50][52] Conclusion - The July 2025 oil data indicates a mixed outlook for the Chinese oil market, with strong demand in certain sectors like jet fuel and LPG, while facing challenges in diesel and naphtha. The regulatory environment and geopolitical factors will continue to shape market dynamics moving forward.

Summary of the Conference Call on Oil Price Forecast Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the oil industry, specifically the Brent crude oil market and OECD commercial stocks. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Forecasting Framework**: The company expects Brent prices to decline to the low $50s by late 2026, based on a three-step forecasting framework: - An oil surplus forecast averaging 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 [1] - OECD commercial stocks are assumed to account for one-third of global builds [1] - An increase in OECD commercial stocks by one day of demand (approximately 45 million barrels) reduces the fair value of oil prices by over $3 per barrel [1][7] 2. **Current Stock Trends**: - Global visible stocks have built by nearly 1 mb/d year-to-date (YTD), while OECD landed stocks have only increased by 20 million barrels (or 80,000 barrels per day) YTD [12][9] - The majority of YTD builds are concentrated in oil on water and China stocks, with significant increases in floating storage due to sanctions on producers like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [12][9] 3. **China's Impact on Oil Stocks**: - China’s total visible oil stocks have built by 0.4 mb/d YTD, with a base case of 0.3 mb/d pace of builds expected from September 2025 to December 2026 [49][52] - An acceleration in China builds to 0.8 mb/d from the current 0.4 mb/d would raise the 2026 Brent average price by $6 per barrel [50][46] 4. **OECD Stocks as Price Predictors**: - OECD commercial stocks are confirmed to predict Brent timespreads better than total global stocks, even when including estimated invisible non-OECD stocks [1][17] - A 1% rise in OECD commercial stocks is estimated to reduce the fair value of oil prices by 3% [31][28] 5. **Future Price Expectations**: - Prices are expected to remain near current forwards for the rest of 2025 but decline below forwards in 2026 as OECD builds accelerate [46] - The analysis indicates a modest $1-2 upside risk to the 2026 average Brent forecast [46] Additional Important Insights - The analysis highlights the importance of OECD stocks in predicting oil prices, emphasizing their reliability compared to non-OECD data due to better visibility and historical data quality [24][25] - The report discusses the structural trends in OECD versus non-OECD demand, raising questions about the appropriateness of using OECD stocks for global price predictions [17][66] - The company’s refined three-step framework suggests that OECD commercial stocks will build at a pace of 0.6 mb/d through 2026, consistent with their balance estimates [45][46] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the oil market, focusing on price forecasts, stock trends, and the predictive power of OECD commercial stocks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The oil market is anticipated to experience a significant surplus in the coming quarters, which is both large and well-anticipated, suggesting a potential weakening of prices but not a disorderly sell-off [1][10] - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices remains unchanged at $60 per barrel for 1Q 2026 [1][6] Core Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - Demand growth has stabilized at a below-trend rate of 0.75 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2025, with a consensus forecast of approximately 0.85 mb/d [9][24] - Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow robustly, with a projected increase of 0.9 mb/d from mid-2025 to the end of the year, driven by new projects in Brazil and Guyana [9][54] - OPEC supply has increased by approximately 1 mb/d since March, primarily from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but is expected to stabilize moving forward [9][11][66] - **Price Forecasts**: - Despite the anticipated oversupply, Brent prices are expected to remain above $60/bbl due to factors such as storage economics, potential OPEC cuts, and market expectations [14][17] - A surplus of 1.5 mb/d is projected for 4Q 2025, increasing to over 2 mb/d in 1H 2026 [81][83] Additional Important Insights - **Refinery Operations**: - Refinery crude runs are at their highest levels for several quarters, driven by strong margins despite a decline in refining capacity due to shutdowns [3][31] - Observable inventories of refined products have started to rise, indicating that refineries may be overcompensating for closures [35][37] - **Geopolitical Factors**: - Heightened geopolitical risks, including potential sanctions on Iranian oil and tariffs on Indian purchases of Russian oil, could disrupt supply [16] - **Market Sentiment**: - The current market sentiment is characterized by a paradox where oil prices are relatively cheap compared to other assets, yet demand growth remains sluggish [16][28] - **Long-term Outlook**: - The oil market is expected to face challenges in 2026, with a slowdown in non-OPEC supply growth anticipated after a strong exit rate in 2025 [55][56] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the oil market, including supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical considerations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **global oil market**, particularly the dynamics of **Brent crude oil prices** and **OPEC+ production** strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Market Surplus**: A projected average surplus of **890k b/d** from July 2025 through June 2026 is expected, leading to global oil inventory builds of around **100 million barrels** if historical patterns hold [2][10][85]. 2. **Price Forecasts**: Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to average **$63.50/bbl** in the second half of 2025, potentially dropping below **$60/bbl**. However, a recovery to above **$70/bbl** is projected by summer 2026 due to various supportive factors [2][4][21][24]. 3. **OPEC+ Production Strategy**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production, with net volumes rising from **27.8 million b/d** this year to **27.9 million b/d** next year, driven by quota revisions and a strategy to regain market share [15][37]. 4. **US Oil Output**: The US shale oil output growth is slowing, with a **15%** decline in the rig count since March due to lower prices and rising costs. In contrast, Canadian production is expected to grow by **100k b/d** next year [3][27][31]. 5. **Demand Growth**: Global oil demand is projected to grow by **900k b/d** in 2025 and **1 million b/d** in 2026, supported by upward revisions in global GDP growth expectations of **3%** for 2025 and **3.1%** for 2026 [3][7][48]. 6. **Geopolitical Risks**: The ongoing trade war and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, pose significant risks to the oil price outlook. A ceasefire in Ukraine could lead to sanctions relief and increased Russian oil output [3][59][60]. 7. **China's Role**: China has been a major driver of global crude oil inventory builds, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the increase in 1H25. This is part of China's strategy to enhance energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties [87][88]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Contango Market Structure**: The Brent crude market is expected to flip into contango over the next six months, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [4][21]. 2. **Long-term Price Stability**: Despite short-term bearish outlooks, long-dated Brent prices are expected to stabilize in the **$60-$80/bbl** range, with potential recovery into **2H26** [2][4]. 3. **Emerging Market Demand**: Emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are expected to lead incremental oil demand growth, with China projected to consume **16.9 million b/d** and India **6.1 million b/d** by 2026 [54][55]. 4. **Inventory Trends**: Global oil inventories are projected to build by **250k b/d** in 2H25 and **310k b/d** in 1H26, reinforcing the bearish price outlook for the near term [82][85]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the global oil market, highlighting the interplay between supply dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical factors.

Summary of Key Points from the Oil Data Digest Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically oil inventory data across various regions including the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore, and Fujairah. Core Insights and Arguments - **Total Oil Inventories**: Total oil inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels (mln bbls) last week, with crude stocks rising by 3.8 mln bbls primarily due to a build in the US [1][2][35]. - **Refined Product Stocks**: Refined product stocks decreased by 2.0 mln bbls, driven by draws in the US and Fujairah [3][4][35]. - **Regional Breakdown**: - **US**: Crude stocks built by 3.0 mln bbls, with a total crude build of 3.3 mln bbls when including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [78][90]. - **Europe**: Total oil stocks increased by 0.7 mln bbls [31][35]. - **Fujairah**: Product inventories decreased by 1.6 mln bbls week-over-week (WoW) [29][35]. - **Singapore**: Product inventories increased by 0.2 mln bbls [33][35]. - **Distillate and Gasoline Stocks**: Distillate stocks saw a marginal build, while gasoline stocks experienced a draw of 0.8 mln bbls, consistent with seasonal trends [80][81]. Additional Important Information - **Crude Production and Imports**: US crude production rose by 40 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) to approximately 13.3 million barrels per day (mbpd). Crude imports increased by 1 mbpd, contributing to the build in crude stocks [78][90]. - **Refinery Operations**: Refinery runs increased by 60 kbpd, although overall utilization rates fell by 0.5 percentage points (pp) to 96.4% [79][88]. - **Historical Context**: The current inventory levels are compared to the 10-year average, indicating significant deviations in both crude and refined product stocks [6][35]. Conclusion - The oil market is experiencing a complex interplay of inventory builds and draws across different regions, with significant implications for supply dynamics and pricing. The data suggests a robust supply response in the US, while other regions show varied trends in inventory levels.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil market dynamics, particularly in relation to the geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for global oil prices and supply chains. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Tensions**: President Trump has shortened the deadline for Russia to cease hostilities in Ukraine from 50 days to 10 days, indicating a more aggressive stance against Russia [2][6][10]. 2. **Potential Sanctions**: Trump has threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, including China, India, and Brazil, if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire by September 2 [2][6][10]. 3. **Oil Price Projections**: If both Russia and the US take action, oil prices could spike significantly due to supply restrictions. Conversely, if no action is taken, prices are expected to decline to $60 per barrel by year-end [4][6][10]. 4. **Impact of Sanctions on Oil Exports**: India may comply with US sanctions, risking up to 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian oil exports, while China has indicated it will maintain its current purchasing levels [6][10][21]. 5. **OPEC's Capacity**: OPEC's spare capacity is insufficient to offset potential losses from Russian oil exports, which could lead to higher oil prices [6][10][20]. 6. **Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)**: Russia may respond to sanctions by closing the CPC pipeline, which exports 1.5-1.6 mbd of Kazakh crude, significantly impacting global oil supply [12][23][28]. 7. **China's Position**: China has resisted US pressure to reduce its oil purchases from Russia, indicating a strategic alignment with Moscow [21][23]. 8. **India's Oil Imports**: India currently imports around 1.8 mbd of Russian crude, which constitutes about 35% of its total crude imports, a significant increase from 2% pre-war [21][23]. 9. **Global Supply Dynamics**: Global oil supply is expected to rise by about 1 mbd by year-end, but this increase is uncertain due to geopolitical factors and OPEC's relationship with Russia [10][20]. Additional Important Content 1. **Market Volatility**: The current geopolitical landscape suggests that any military escalation could lead to significant volatility in oil prices, with potential spikes if supply is restricted [4][10][11]. 2. **Long-term Supply Outlook**: Projections indicate that while short-term supply may increase, long-term sustainability remains a concern, particularly with geopolitical tensions affecting production decisions [20][22][36]. 3. **US Consumer Prices**: High oil prices could deter Trump from taking drastic actions, as they may adversely affect US consumer prices, which he has promised to lower [10][11][12]. 4. **Regulatory Influence**: Russia's regulatory authority over the CPC has been highlighted as a potential tool for retaliating against Western sanctions, showcasing the geopolitical leverage in oil exports [23][26][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications for the oil market as discussed in the conference call, reflecting the interplay between geopolitical actions and market dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call on China Oil & Gas Equities Industry Overview - The oil and gas sector in China is facing significant challenges due to falling international crude oil prices and intense competition in refined oil and petrochemical markets [2][3][15]. Key Companies Discussed Sinopec - Issued a profit warning on July 31, projecting 1H25 net income (excluding extraordinary items) between RMB20.1-21.6 billion, indicating a year-on-year decline of 39.5% to 43.7% for 1H25 [2][15]. - Expected 2Q25 net income between RMB6.8-8.3 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 52-61% [2][15]. - The decline is attributed to lower international crude oil prices and competitive pressures in the market [2][15]. - Cash flows are under pressure, raising concerns about dividend distribution [4][15]. PetroChina - Expected to report a net profit of RMB33.4 billion for 2Q25, down 22% year-on-year, primarily due to a 20% decline in Brent oil prices [9][13]. - The natural gas business is expected to show resilience, with profit growth from increased gas prices for downstream utilities [9][10]. - Estimated free cash flow (FCF) yield of approximately 12% for 2026, the highest among peers [4][9]. - Investment thesis remains positive, with a Buy rating maintained [3][4]. CNOOC - Projected net profit of RMB31 billion for 2Q25, a decline of 23% year-on-year, also due to the 20% drop in Brent oil prices [13][14]. - Total oil and gas production expected to increase by 6% year-on-year, with oil production up 5% and natural gas production up 10% [13][14]. - CNOOC's competitive production costs are expected to mitigate some earnings impact from lower oil prices [3][4]. Financial Metrics and Estimates - **Sinopec**: - Revenue estimates for 2025 are revised to RMB2,718 billion, with net income expected to be RMB39 billion [37]. - EBIT for 2025 is estimated at RMB60 billion, reflecting a 6% decline from previous estimates [37]. - **PetroChina**: - Revenue estimates for 2025 revised to RMB2,528 billion, with net income projected at RMB147 billion [29]. - EBIT for 2025 is estimated at RMB210 billion, a 3% increase from previous estimates [29]. - **CNOOC**: - Revenue estimates for 2025 revised to RMB394 billion, with net income projected at RMB126 billion [34]. - EBIT for 2025 is estimated at RMB169 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [34]. Investment Ratings - **PetroChina**: Buy rating maintained, with target prices raised to RMB11.00 for A-shares and HKD8.50 for H-shares, indicating upside potential of 29.3% and 14.6% respectively [58]. - **CNOOC**: Buy rating maintained, with target prices raised to RMB31.80 for A-shares and HKD21.70 for H-shares, indicating upside potential of 22.6% and 16.3% respectively [58]. - **Sinopec**: Hold rating maintained, with target prices set at RMB5.50 for A-shares and HKD4.40 for H-shares, indicating a slight downside risk [58]. Risks and Considerations - Risks for all companies include potential sharp declines in oil prices, competition pressures, and regulatory changes affecting the energy sector [3][4][58]. - Sinopec faces the highest risk regarding dividend distribution due to declining earnings and cash flows [4][15]. Conclusion - The Chinese oil and gas sector is currently under pressure from falling oil prices and competitive dynamics, with varying impacts on major players. PetroChina and CNOOC are expected to show resilience, while Sinopec faces significant challenges. Investment strategies should consider these dynamics and the associated risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil industry**, focusing on the dynamics of **Brent oil prices**, **OPEC+ production quotas**, and the impact of geopolitical events on oil supply and demand. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Brent Oil Price Increase**: The Brent oil price has increased by **7% week-on-week** due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential for a **100% tariff on Russian oil imports** by the US, affecting major importers like **China and India**, which account for **3.3 million barrels per day (mb/d)** or **45%** of Russian oil exports year-to-date [1][2][3]. 2. **OPEC+ Production Decisions**: OPEC+ is expected to announce a **0.55 mb/d quota increase** for September, completing the return of **2.2 mb/d** of voluntary cuts. This increase is anticipated to result in a **1.7 mb/d** rise in actual OPEC+ crude production from March to September, with **Saudi Arabia** and **UAE** contributing **60%** and **20%** respectively [2][3]. 3. **Future Production Quotas**: It is assumed that OPEC+ will maintain its production quota unchanged after September due to anticipated growth from new non-OPEC projects, which could add nearly **0.9 mb/d** in production [3]. 4. **Global Oil Inventory Trends**: Global visible stocks have been increasing, particularly in the **OECD**, with **China** absorbing **40%** of global visible builds. China's crude storage utilization remains below historical highs, indicating potential for further storage growth [6][12]. 5. **Russia's Oil Production Decline**: The net supply from Russia has decreased by **0.3 mb/d**, attributed to a stronger Ruble and compensation cuts. Meanwhile, production in the Americas, particularly from **Canada** and **Brazil**, has shown positive growth [7][15]. 6. **OECD Stock Levels**: OECD commercial stocks have increased by **5 mb** and now stand at **2,791 mb**, which is **22 mb** above previous forecasts. This increase is expected to continue, especially post-summer peak demand [15][18]. 7. **Demand Forecasts**: Global oil demand is projected to be **0.3 mb/d** above last year's levels, with specific increases noted in **China** and **OECD Europe** [39][42][45]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: The perceived probability of additional sanctions on Russia has surged, contributing to the recent rally in crude prices [8]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The gap between the Brent 1M/36M timespread and its fair value has narrowed, indicating tighter market conditions [48]. 3. **Refining Margins**: Early signs of moderation in refining margins have been observed, particularly in **Northwest Europe**, while diesel margins in Europe and the US have retreated from recent highs [57][58]. 4. **Investment Considerations**: Investors are advised to consider this report as one of several factors in their investment decisions, highlighting the importance of comprehensive analysis [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil market dynamics, particularly in relation to the geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for global oil prices and supply. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Tensions**: President Trump has shortened the deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine from 50 days to 10 days, indicating frustration with Russia's inaction [2][6][10] 2. **Potential Sanctions**: Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, including China, India, and Brazil, if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire by September 2 [2][6][10] 3. **Oil Price Projections**: If both Russia and the US take action, oil prices could spike significantly due to supply restrictions. Conversely, if no action is taken, prices are expected to decline to $60 by year-end [4][6][10] 4. **Impact of Sanctions on India**: India has indicated compliance with European and US sanctions, which could risk up to 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian oil exports. This loss could drive oil prices sharply higher, as OPEC's spare capacity is insufficient to offset this volume [6][10][12] 5. **China's Stance**: China has signaled it will not change its purchasing patterns of Russian oil, which complicates the geopolitical landscape [10][22] 6. **Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)**: Russia may respond to sanctions by closing the CPC pipeline, which exports 1.5-1.6 mbd of oil, significantly impacting global supply [12][24] 7. **OPEC's Spare Capacity**: OPEC's spare capacity is estimated to be around 1.3 mbd, which is insufficient to cover potential losses from Russian oil exports [21][19] 8. **Global Supply Dynamics**: Non-OPEC countries are expected to increase supply by about 1 mbd by year-end, but this increase may not be immediate [10][21] 9. **Long-term Oil Price Forecasts**: J.P. Morgan forecasts Brent crude prices to average $82 in 2024, with a decline to $66 by 2026, reflecting the anticipated market adjustments [46][43] Other Important Considerations 1. **Russia's Leverage**: Russia has expanded control over key export routes, which it may use as leverage against Western sanctions [24][29] 2. **Kazakhstan's Oil Exports**: Kazakhstan's oil exports via the CPC are vulnerable, as US and European companies control a significant portion of these exports [30][37] 3. **Political Risks**: The potential for significant oil price spikes due to sanctions poses political risks for the Trump administration, especially with high consumer prices in the US [10][14] 4. **Market Volatility**: The current geopolitical situation creates a "zugzwang" scenario where any action could worsen the position of either party, leading to increased market volatility [4][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil market as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between geopolitical events and market dynamics.