Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the oil industry, specifically regarding Brent crude oil prices and geopolitical risks affecting supply and pricing dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Brent Price Forecast**: The 0-3 month price target for Brent crude oil has been upgraded to $70 per barrel from the previous range of $55-65 per barrel, driven by rising geopolitical risks, particularly related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine [1][2][6] 2. **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased tensions in Iran and ongoing conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine are contributing to a higher geopolitical risk premium, which is expected to support oil prices in the near term [1][7] 3. **Iranian Oil Production**: Iran's crude oil production is approximately 3.9 million barrels per day (b/d), with exports around 1.3 million b/d. Protests in Iran could lead to supply disruptions, particularly if oil-rich regions like Khuzestan are affected [2][3] 4. **Oil Inventories**: Current oil inventories are at comfortable levels, with OECD stocks at approximately 1,144 million barrels, which is up 42 million barrels year-over-year. However, a 1-2 million b/d outage could quickly deplete spare capacity and push prices higher [2] 5. **Political Unrest**: While protests have intensified in urban centers, they have not significantly impacted Iran's core oil production areas, thus limiting immediate supply disruptions [3] 6. **US Policy Impact**: The US administration's policies, including tariffs on nations trading with Iran, are amplifying short-term price volatility without significantly altering core oil flows. A stock build of 1.6 million b/d is expected through the first half of 2026 [6] 7. **Market Dynamics**: Despite the geopolitical tensions, global oil supply is projected to increase by 1.8 million b/d this year, suggesting that any price rally may be temporary. Recommendations include selling Brent crude if prices exceed $70 per barrel [7] Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the potential for producer hedging in response to price spikes, as OPEC+ has the capacity to increase supply if significant disruptions occur [1] - The analysis indicates that while geopolitical risks are currently high, the fundamentals of the oil market remain looser compared to previous crises, suggesting a more stable long-term outlook [1][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Oil Industry**, specifically discussing crude oil production, supply, demand, and refinery operations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Record Crude Production**: US crude production reached a record of **13.87 million barrels per day (mb/d)** in October, primarily driven by gains in the US Gulf region, despite a stall in shale production growth [2][3][4]. 2. **Shale Production Trends**: Shale production saw a slight decline of **10 kb/d month-over-month (MoM)** in October, with New Mexico's output increasing by approximately **30 kb/d**, while Texas experienced a decline of **45 kb/d** [5][6]. 3. **Rig Count Decline**: The US oil rig count decreased by **6 rigs** in October, with significant losses in the Eagle Ford basin [8][12]. 4. **Fracking Activity Increase**: Frac activity rose sharply in October, with **1,261 frac jobs** initiated, marking a **21% increase** from September [13]. 5. **Gulf of Mexico Production Growth**: Offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico increased by **45 kb/d** MoM, reaching **2.0 mb/d**, supported by new projects like the Leon-Castille field [14][17]. 6. **Crude Imports and Exports**: Crude imports fell sharply by **500 kb/d** MoM to **5.9 mb/d**, while exports decreased by **140 kb/d** but were still up **9% year-over-year (YoY)** [24][26][29]. 7. **Refinery Runs Decline**: US refinery runs dropped by **940 kb/d** MoM to **15.53 mb/d**, attributed to seasonal maintenance and unplanned outages [35][40]. 8. **Oil Demand Contraction**: Total US oil demand contracted by **2% YoY** in October, ending four months of growth, with notable declines in gasoline and jet fuel consumption [48][49]. 9. **Finished Products Output**: Refinery output of finished products fell by **3% MoM**, with gasoline being the only product to see an increase in output [91][94]. 10. **Crude Inventory Build**: US crude inventories rose by **15.8 million barrels** in October due to reduced refinery demand, with significant builds in PADD 3, PADD 2, and PADD 5 [136][141]. Additional Important Insights - **Transfers to Crude Oil Supply**: In October, **860 kb/d** of transfers to crude oil supply were recorded, indicating an increase in blending materials used for refinery feedstock [22][23]. - **Impact of Seasonal Factors**: The decline in refinery runs and oil demand was influenced by seasonal factors, including maintenance schedules and the end of the harvest season affecting diesel demand [71][74]. - **Future Outlook**: Weekly EIA data suggests a recovery in refinery runs in November as maintenance concludes, with crude imports also expected to rise [138]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and trends in the US oil industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting production, demand, and operational challenges faced by the sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Expert Call on Oil Market Outlook Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the global oil market, particularly the outlook for 2026, with insights from Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors [1] Core Insights - **Oil Price Projections**: Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain stable in the $60s per barrel, with fluctuations driven by geopolitical events or perceived oversupply being temporary [1] - **Demand vs. Surplus**: The perceived surplus in the oil market is considered exaggerated. Stronger-than-expected demand, especially from the US, is anticipated, with a growth estimate of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (Mb/d) for 2026 [2] - **China's Role**: China has absorbed about 70% of the increase in oil inventories over the past year, but its inventory levels may limit price increases, with Brent prices above $70/bbl likely triggering selling [3] - **US Shale Production**: US shale production growth is slowing, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) absorbing the supply growth since January [4] - **Venezuela's Production Outlook**: Venezuelan oil production is not expected to rebound quickly, with potential upside capped at around 0.2 Mb/d. The country has significant storage capacity available, allowing it to maintain production levels despite sanctions [5] - **OPEC+ Dynamics**: There is skepticism regarding OPEC+'s ability to significantly change production capacity disclosures, as many members are historically protective of their production data [6] Additional Considerations - **Investment Risks**: The oil market is characterized by high volatility due to unpredictable political, geological, and economic factors, which can significantly affect supply and demand [8] - **Strategic Reserves**: The build-up of strategic reserves in both China and the US is seen as a factor that supports oil demand and mitigates perceived oversupply [2] - **Market Sentiment**: The expert acknowledged a previous underestimation of demand for non-sanctioned OPEC+ crude, which contributed to unexpected price movements [6] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the expert call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the oil market.

Summary of the Oil Market Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the outlook for oil prices and supply dynamics for 2026 and beyond, as analyzed by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends and Forecasts - Oil prices declined by 14% year-over-year in 2025, averaging $68 per barrel due to strong supply despite geopolitical tensions [7][9] - Forecasts for 2026 average prices are $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, with a projected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) [7][23] - Prices are expected to bottom at $54 for Brent and $50 for WTI in Q4 2026 as inventory builds increase [39] - A price recovery is anticipated starting in 2027, with revised forecasts of $58 for Brent and $54 for WTI due to slowing non-OPEC supply growth and solid demand [43][50] Supply Dynamics - The report predicts a combined production decline from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran of 0.7 mb/d by December 2027, with oil on water decreasing by 33 million barrels [4][72] - US liquids supply reached a record high, increasing by 0.8 mb/d year-over-year in October [34] - The report highlights that OPEC's production increases in 2025 were strategic to support market stability later in the decade [28] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain significant, with potential supply disruptions from sanctioned countries like Iran and Russia likely to cause price spikes [52][65] - However, US policymakers' focus on maintaining strong energy supply is expected to limit sustained price increases [65] Recommendations - Investors are advised to short the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent timespread to capitalize on the anticipated surplus [78] - Oil producers are recommended to hedge against potential price declines in 2026, as the market may be underpricing inventory builds [79] Long-Term Outlook - The long-term outlook remains constructive, with expectations of a price recovery later in the decade driven by ongoing demand growth and necessary investments in long-cycle production [50][75] - The report notes that technological advancements may lead to continued production beats, potentially keeping prices lower than previously forecasted [71][75] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of OECD commercial stocks in influencing price dynamics, as they tend to be more significant than inventory trends elsewhere [39] - The analysis includes various price risk scenarios based on changes in sanctioned supply and global economic conditions, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting future oil prices [68][69] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the oil market outlook as presented by Goldman Sachs.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the oil industry, particularly regarding Venezuelan oil and its implications for the US market amid geopolitical risks and domestic political challenges ahead of the US midterm elections in November 2026 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The US is attempting to redirect Venezuelan oil to alleviate rising oil prices, with an initial plan to move 30-50 million barrels (m bbls) of Venezuelan oil to the US [1][3]. - This redirection may lead to a diversion of Canadian heavy crude oil to Asia, as US Gulf Coast refiners will likely process the Venezuelan oil [1][3]. - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine situation, could keep oil prices supported in the range of $55-65 per barrel [1][2]. - US oil inventories are experiencing a rise in gasoline and diesel stocks, while crude stocks are declining due to strong refinery runs [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Short-term measures could result in a growth of Venezuelan oil supply by 0.3-0.5 million barrels per day (m b/d) starting from the fourth quarter of 2026 [2]. - Long-term supply recovery in Venezuela may take over eight years to return to levels above 3 m b/d, contingent on political and economic stability [2]. - US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.8 m bbls to 419.1 m bbls, exceeding expectations for a 1.3 m bbl draw, driven by strong refinery runs [7]. - Refinery runs increased slightly to 16.9 m b/d, while gross crude imports and exports also saw significant increases [7]. Inventory and Utilization Trends - As of the end of 2025, US commercial crude inventories were up by 5 m bbls year-over-year, with crude output rising to 13.8 m b/d [4]. - Diesel stocks rose by 5.6 m bbls to 129.3 m bbls, surpassing expectations for a 1.6 m bbl build, while gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 m bbls to 242.0 m bbls [8][9]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 245,000 bbls to 413.5 m bbls [7]. Additional Important Insights - The US is facing political, security, legal, and fiscal uncertainties regarding Venezuelan oil, which could impact future supply and investment [2]. - The US administration's actions may have broader implications for oil flows to other countries, particularly China, which may need to source oil from alternative suppliers [3]. - The overall demand for oil products has shown a decline, with total product supplied decreasing by 0.15 million b/d week-over-week [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the oil industry, particularly in relation to Venezuelan oil and its impact on the US market.

Summary of Conference Call Notes on US Oil & Gas Services and Exploration & Production Industry Overview - The focus is on the Oilfield Services (OFS) sector, particularly in relation to Venezuela's oil production potential and its impact on stock prices of major OFS companies [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Venezuela News**: - The stock prices of major OFS companies such as SLB, HAL, and WFRD increased significantly (approximately 9%, 8%, and 10% respectively) due to expectations of increased foreign investment in Venezuela's oilfields [2]. - The market capitalization increase of 8-10% on a single day appears disproportionate when considering the EBITDA contribution needed to justify it, estimated at over $6 billion for the Big 4 OFS companies [1][2]. 2. **Revenue Opportunity Assessment**: - A return to around 75 active rigs in Venezuela could represent a market opportunity of approximately $3-3.5 billion for OFS services, which is less than the market capitalization increase suggests [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that when Venezuela produced 2.5-3 million barrels per day, it operated 70-80 rigs, suggesting a potential $10 billion drilling and completion (D&C) market if similar activity levels are achieved [3]. 3. **Valuation and Yield Analysis**: - The stock movement has closed the valuation gap between large-cap OFS and E&P companies, particularly at a WTI price of $60 [4][9]. - The 2027 Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield for OFS companies has improved, reflecting a rebound in the Middle East, although it did not significantly drop below E&P yields [4][9]. 4. **Historical Context and Future Outlook**: - The Big 4 OFS companies previously wrote off billions in receivables from Venezuela, and restarting collection efforts may influence current stock movements [4]. - The overall sentiment suggests that while some of the stock price increases may be temporary, a portion of the gains could be sustained as the market recognizes the valuation gap [4]. Additional Important Information - The report includes a detailed analysis of stock movements and their implications for revenue opportunities, with a total implied revenue opportunity exceeding $6 billion for the global OFS sector [8]. - The report also highlights the competitive landscape, indicating that OFS companies may face competition in certain product lines, which could affect their revenue from D&C services [3]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the potential for growth in the OFS sector driven by developments in Venezuela, while also cautioning that the current stock price increases may not fully reflect the underlying revenue opportunities. The analysis suggests a complex interplay between market sentiment, historical performance, and future expectations in the oil and gas services industry [1][4][8].

Summary of Venezuela's Oil Sector Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on Venezuela's oil sector, highlighting its significant oil reserves and production challenges. Venezuela is noted to have the largest crude oil reserves globally, with approximately 241 billion barrels deemed recoverable but not yet produced [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Production Decline**: Venezuela's crude oil production has drastically decreased from a peak of approximately 3.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the late 1990s to around 0.9 mb/d currently. This decline is attributed to under-investment and the impact of sanctions [5][19]. - **Recent Trends**: Following a sharp decline during the 2014/15 oil price crash and the COVID-19 pandemic, production has recently shown slight recovery, reaching about 1 mb/d [8][19]. - **Export Challenges**: Venezuela's oil exports have been significantly affected by U.S. sanctions, with recent enforcement leading to a drop in exports from a peak of ~1 mb/d to ~0.6 mb/d [17][19]. The U.S. refining system is well-equipped to process Venezuelan crude, but sanctions have limited this flow [10][11]. - **Naphtha Imports**: The import of naphtha, essential for processing Venezuela's heavy oil, has been constrained by sanctions. Historically sourced from the U.S., recent imports have shifted to Russia [22][23]. - **Reserve Positions**: Other companies, such as Sinopec and Roszarubezheft, hold significant reserves in Venezuela, totaling over 6.5 billion barrels, compared to the state oil company PdvSA's reserves of over 200 billion barrels [25]. - **Future Production Outlook**: The future of Venezuela's oil production remains uncertain, with potential for recovery contingent on political stability, government actions, and investment. Historical parallels with Iraq and Libya suggest that optimism may not translate into immediate production increases [28][29][31]. - **Market Impact**: The global oil market is currently in surplus, with estimates indicating an oversupply of 2-3 mb/d in the first half of 2026. This suggests that temporary disruptions in Venezuela's production may have limited price impacts [30]. - **Investment Needs**: Significant investments of $15-20 billion over ten years are estimated to be required to increase production by an additional 0.5 mb/d [31]. Additional Important Insights - **Political Factors**: The analysis emphasizes the importance of political stability and governance in determining the future of Venezuela's oil production [29]. - **Sanctions and Compliance**: The report highlights the ongoing impact of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector and the need for compliance with applicable laws in investment activities [34]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of Venezuela's oil sector as discussed in the analysis, providing insights into production challenges, market dynamics, and future outlooks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the oil industry, particularly regarding the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, Iran, and the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict, which are currently supportive for oil prices but may lead to bearish trends in the long term [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Venezuelan Oil Supply**: The US administration's "quarantine" on Venezuelan crude oil exports is expected to continue until satisfactory actions are taken by the Venezuelan government. Venezuelan oil exports were halved to approximately 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) in December 2025 due to a US naval blockade [2]. - **Future Projections**: The baseline scenario anticipates Venezuelan oil output to begin rising in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an increase of about 300,000 to 500,000 b/d from mid-2026 to the end of 2027. This increase is contingent on political stability and successful elections in Venezuela, which are expected by summer 2026 [2][5]. - **OPEC+ Response**: OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, is likely to cut output to maintain Brent crude prices between $55 and $60 per barrel if there is a significant rise in inventories due to increased Venezuelan production [2][5]. - **Investment Needs**: A substantial investment of $80 to $100 billion is required to restore Venezuelan oil output to approximately 2 million b/d over eight years. The Orinoco Belt contains the majority of Venezuela's proven reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, which is nearly 20% of global reserves [10]. - **Technical Constraints**: Despite vast reserves, the lack of a stable investment climate and infrastructure means that large-scale production increases will take years rather than months. Historical production data shows a peak of around 3.7 million b/d in the 1970s, with current production just over 1 million b/d [7][10]. - **Short-term Gains**: Near-term production increases are expected to come from blending and diluent availability rather than political changes. Access to naphtha for blending could unlock up to 200,000 b/d of incremental output without significant new investments [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Governance and Stability**: The political situation in Venezuela remains uncertain, and any meaningful increase in oil supply will depend on governance reforms and the establishment of a stable government that can attract investments [6][12]. - **China's Oil Procurement**: If China does not receive its usual volumes of Venezuelan oil, it may seek alternative heavy crude oils from the open market, which could impact global oil prices [14]. - **Downstream Constraints**: Venezuela's refining capacity is currently operating at about 25% of its nameplate capacity, reinforcing the country's dependence on crude exports and imported refined products [11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the Venezuelan oil market and its implications for global oil prices.

Morgan Stanley Research Global January 5, 2026 12:50 PM GMT January 5, 2026 Vishwanath Tirupattur – Chief Fixed Income Strategist | Strategist Devin McDermott – Head of North American Energy Research | Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Simon Waever – Global Head of EM Sovereign Credit and LatAm Fixed Income Strategy | Strategist Ariana Salvatore – Public Policy Strategist | Strategist MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Martijn Rats – Global Commodities Strategist and Head of European Energy Research | Equity ...

4 January 2026 | 2:24PM EST Commodities Research Oil Comment: Price Risks From Venezuela: Ambiguous in Short-Run But Negative in Long-Run Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Price Risks From Venezuela: Ambiguous in Short-Run But Negative in Long-Run 1 PDVSA reportedly aimed to reduce Orinoco Belt pro ...