Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Commodities - **Key Focus**: Analysis of the oil market, supply-demand dynamics, and price forecasts Core Insights - **Brent Price Forecast**: Post-summer surplus is likely to drive Brent prices to approximately $60 per barrel, but not significantly lower than that [6][9][27] - **Oil Inventories**: Observable oil inventories have increased by around 243 million barrels since January, indicating an oversupply of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day [9][22] - **Demand Growth**: Demand growth is estimated at 0.75 million barrels per day, below the historical trend of 1.2 million barrels per day, influenced by tariff uncertainties and structural changes in China [9][19] - **Non-OPEC Supply Growth**: Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by countries like Canada, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, and the US [9][19] - **OPEC Production Quota**: OPEC's 'Group-of-8' announced an increase in its production quota by 137,000 barrels per day, marking the beginning of a potential unwind of 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts [9][19] Supply-Demand Dynamics - **Surplus Projections**: A significant surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day is anticipated in Q4 2025, increasing to 2.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [9][19] - **Storage Economics**: To facilitate oil inventory builds, the forward curve must create favorable storage economics, necessitating a contango structure [9][27] - **Refinery Demand**: Demand for refined products has shown little growth, with key drivers being refinery closures and low inventories of middle distillates [16][30] Price Structures - **Forward Curve Dynamics**: The forward curve is expected to move into a sufficient contango, which would require spot prices to be around $60 per barrel [27][35] - **Market Tightness**: Current market conditions indicate tightness in the near term, but a looser market is expected in 2026 [35][43] Regional Insights - **China's Demand**: China's oil demand has shown signs of recovery, particularly in naphtha, although transportation demand remains soft [90][96] - **US Supply Trends**: US shale production is projected to decline by approximately 100,000 barrels per day in 2026, with observed production growth already slowing [158][159] Additional Considerations - **OPEC Compliance**: There is a growing divergence in estimates of OPEC production, with varying adherence to quotas among member countries [168][171] - **Fiscal Break-Evens**: Several OPEC countries have fiscal break-evens significantly above current oil prices, indicating potential financial pressures [208] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil market, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Oil Markets Weekly (September 5, 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil market, particularly Brent crude prices and the impact of geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics on pricing. Key Points and Arguments Oil Price Trends - Brent prices have remained stable within the range of $65 to $69 for most of August, indicating physical tightness in the market despite expectations of oversupply [1][3] - The forecast for average oil prices in the second half of 2025 is $63, with an exit price of $60 per barrel, which may be too bearish given current market conditions [1][3] Geopolitical Factors - Sanctions affecting nearly 20% of the global oil market have had limited price impact as Western leaders resist higher costs, resulting in a low geopolitical risk premium [3][6] - The US administration's policies have significantly influenced oil price fluctuations, impacting both global demand and supply expectations [1][3] Inventory Dynamics - Global oil inventories have increased, with China accounting for two-thirds of the build, leading to a valuation challenge for Brent prices [3][25] - OECD inventories have only absorbed 25% of global stock builds this year, compared to a historical average of 40%, which raises Brent's fair value [3][26] - China has approximately 600 million barrels of spare storage capacity, suggesting that stock builds will continue in less price-influential markets [3][32] Supply and Demand Forecasts - Global oil consumption is expected to grow by about 0.8 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2025, with demand growth averaging around 0.9 mbd so far this year [4][11] - Non-OECD supply is projected to rise by almost 1.6 mbd this year, with significant contributions from countries like Guyana, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [7][10] - OPEC+ production quotas are set to increase by 0.75 mbd this year, contrary to earlier expectations of maintaining or deepening cuts [10] Refinery Operations and Exports - Despite increased refinery runs in China, exports of refined products remain below last year's levels as China focuses on replenishing domestic stocks [3][33] - The report highlights the potential for increased processing and export of refined products from China, which could impact global inventory levels and pricing [3][33] Price Forecasts - The report maintains current price forecasts due to uncertainties surrounding China's stock build and the overall market surplus [3][34] - Brent price forecasts for 2025 suggest an average of $66 per barrel, with end-of-year prices projected at $58 per barrel [41] Additional Important Content - The report discusses the potential for increased sanctions against Russia and Iran, which could further complicate the supply landscape [8][10] - The dynamics of inventory absorption in OECD countries versus emerging markets are emphasized as critical for understanding price formation in the oil market [26][27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the J.P. Morgan Oil Markets Weekly report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the actions and forecasts related to OPEC+ and global oil supply and demand dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ has decided to raise required production by 0.14 million barrels per day (mb/d) for October, reflecting a gradual unwinding of the 1.65 mb/d production cuts initiated in April 2023 [3][4][6] - **Price Forecast**: The Brent/WTI price forecast remains unchanged for 2025 at $64/$60 and for 2026 at $56/$52, indicating a balance between lower spot prices and higher long-dated prices due to reduced spare capacity [4][17] - **OECD Stocks**: OECD commercial stocks are currently low, approximately 60 million barrels lower than a year ago, influencing OPEC+'s decision to increase production [7][8] - **Surplus Expectations**: The surplus for 2026 has been revised up to 1.9 mb/d from 1.7 mb/d, driven by supply upgrades in the Americas and a downgrade in Russian supply [20][23] - **Global Demand Growth**: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, with significant contributions from long-cycle projects in Brazil, Guyana, and Canada [28][30] Additional Important Content - **China's Stockpiling**: Faster stockpiling in China is anticipated, with an expected build of 0.5 mb/d in 2025Q4-2026Q4, which is higher than the previous estimate of 0.3 mb/d [20][35] - **Risks to Price Forecast**: The risks to the price forecast are two-sided but skewed to the upside, with key risks including potential supply misses from Russia and a smaller OECD share in stock builds [38][42] - **Production Contributions**: The bulk of actual production increases are expected to come from Saudi Arabia (80%), the UAE (30%), and Kuwait (10%), with a notable downgrade in Russian production estimates [11][25] - **Long-term Price Recovery**: A slowdown in non-OPEC supply growth after 2026 suggests that oil prices may recover, aligning with a long-term Brent estimate of $75-$80 [31] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the oil industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil, Gas, and Chemicals - **Key Trends**: - OPEC+ is expected to fully unwind production cuts, leading to increased oil supply surplus expectations. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 3% month-over-month (MoM) to US$67.3 per barrel in August, indicating weaker prices as peak demand season ends. [2][28] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025, increasing to 3.0 Mb/d in 2026. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts around 1.5 Mb/d for both years. [2][28] Chemical Sector Insights - **Price Movements**: - TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) average selling price (ASP) increased by 13% MoM, but showed a downward trend due to soft demand and higher supply. [3] - mMDI (Modified MDI) ASP rose by 7% MoM, supported by maintenance periods for some plants. [3] - Refrigerant R32 ASP also increased by 7% MoM, driven by strong producer bargaining power. [3] - **Demand Dynamics**: - Price increases were noted among TiO2 producers and polyester filament businesses, indicating potential for further price hikes in the near term. [4] - Products with tight supply include acetic acid, hydrogen peroxide, refrigerants, and others, suggesting potential price support. [4] Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Sectors**: - Chemical subsectors are favored as beneficiaries of 'anti-involution', particularly: - Fertilizers (Hualu) - Refining/Olefins (Hengli, Baofeng, Satellite) - Products with price hike potential (Wanhua for pMDI, Tongkun for polyester filament, Fufeng/Meihua for MSG, and refrigerants). [5] Risk Factors - **Oil & Gas Sector Risks**: - Fluctuations in crude oil prices and disappointing productivity enhancements could impact the sector. [28] - **Chemical Sector Risks**: - Price volatility due to international oil price changes and macroeconomic uncertainties could affect demand. [29] - **New Materials Sector Risks**: - Technological changes and reliance on policy support pose risks to revenue growth and stability. [30] Price Trends and Spreads - **Chemical Product Prices**: - Significant price changes were observed in various chemical products, with some experiencing declines of over 30% year-over-year (YoY). [27] - For example, butyl acrylate saw a 20.9% decrease MoM, while methanol-coal prices increased by 63.5% YoY. [27] Conclusion - The oil and chemical sectors are facing a complex landscape characterized by supply surpluses, price volatility, and shifting demand dynamics. Investors are advised to monitor these trends closely for potential investment opportunities and risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the oil industry in China, specifically analyzing July supply, apparent demand, and trade data for the country. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Apparent Oil Demand Growth** - Chinese apparent oil demand grew by +5% YoY in July, averaging 16.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) [2][5][159] - Demand was driven by strong performance in the petrochemical sector, fuel oil, and jet fuel, with jet fuel consumption increasing by +15% YoY due to robust summer travel [2][26][159] 2. **Crude Imports and Refinery Runs** - Crude imports decreased by 1.0 mb/d MoM to 11.2 mb/d, influenced by higher prices from major suppliers like Saudi Arabia and the Atlantic basin [3][50] - Refinery runs declined by 300 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) MoM to 14.9 mb/d, although this figure is still up 7% YoY [4][56][118] 3. **Refined Product Exports** - Exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel increased by 190 kb/d MoM, supported by strong refinery output and improving export margins [5][65] - Gasoline exports reached 250 kb/d in July, marking a 15% MoM increase [65] 4. **Diesel Demand Trends** - Apparent diesel demand showed a +2% YoY increase, but declined by 5% MoM due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions impacting construction activity [11][12][16] - The manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.3 in July, indicating weaker demand [8][12] 5. **Impact of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)** - NEVs are displacing gasoline demand, with a penetration rate of ~55% in the domestic market [17] - The growth of NEVs is expected to slow down in 2026 due to potential cuts in subsidies and anti-involution measures [20][18] 6. **Jet Fuel Demand and Travel Activity** - Jet fuel demand reached a record high of 930 kb/d in July, driven by strong summer travel, with the number of trips expected to exceed pre-COVID levels [26][27] - Government policies, such as reduced fuel surcharges, are expected to further boost air travel demand [28] 7. **Fuel Oil and LPG Demand** - Apparent fuel oil demand rose by 195 kb/d MoM, supported by improved tax rebates for independent refiners [33][34] - LPG demand increased by 9% MoM, with imports rebounding as prices became more competitive [37][38] 8. **Crude Production Trends** - Chinese crude production fell by 170 kb/d MoM but showed a +1% YoY growth due to new field startups [48][50] 9. **Inventory and Stock Trends** - Crude stocks built by 21.8 million barrels in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of builds [148][150] - Observable product inventories increased by 9.0 million barrels, driven by strong refinery output [149][150] 10. **Future Outlook** - The outlook for diesel demand is expected to remain weak in August due to slowing export momentum [14] - Refinery runs are anticipated to increase in August as more capacity comes online and refining margins improve [115][126] Additional Important Insights - The manufacturing sector's slowdown is impacting diesel demand, with construction activity also affected by adverse weather [12][13] - The Chinese government is implementing measures to curb overcapacity in the refining sector, which may lead to the closure of smaller, less efficient refineries [127][128] - The overall refining capacity is expected to remain limited, with new projects needing to offset closures of older facilities [128] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil industry in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically oil inventory data in various regions including the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore, and Fujairah, UAE [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Total oil inventories decreased by 7.8 million barrels (mln bbls) last week, with crude stocks down by 6.5 mln bbls and refined product stocks down by 1.2 mln bbls [1][2][3]. - The draws in crude stocks were observed across all regions, indicating a widespread reduction in supply [3]. - Refined product stocks saw significant draws in the US and Singapore, with gasoline stocks specifically down by 2.8 mln bbls [3][4]. - Distillate stocks decreased by 0.2 mln bbls, primarily due to draws in the US and Asia [2][3]. - Fuel oil stocks increased by 2.5 mln bbls, driven by builds in all regions except Europe [3]. Regional Inventory Changes - US: Total oil stocks drew by 4.0 mln bbls, with crude stocks down by 2.4 mln bbls and gasoline stocks down by 1.2 mln bbls [22][79]. - Japan: Total oil stocks decreased by 3.3 mln bbls, with crude stocks down by 3.7 mln bbls [23]. - Europe: Total oil stocks drew by 0.6 mln bbls, with refined product stocks showing a mixed trend [33]. - Singapore: Product inventories decreased by 0.3 mln bbls [26]. - Fujairah: Product inventories increased by 0.5 mln bbls [24]. Weekly Changes Compared to Historical Averages - The week-over-week changes in crude and refined product stocks were compared to the 10-year average, showing a notable decrease in crude stocks relative to historical trends [6]. - US crude stocks drew by 1.6 mln bbls, which is less than the 10-year average draw of 4.8 mln bbls [6]. Production and Refinery Operations - US crude production rose by 60 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) to maintain levels at 13.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) [89]. - Refinery runs dropped significantly by 330 kb/d, aligning with 2024 levels for the same week, largely due to lower utilization rates and outages at specific refineries [77][87]. - Overall US refinery utilization rates fell by 2.0 percentage points week-over-week to 94.6% [87]. Demand Insights - Gasoline implied demand saw a strong week-over-week rise, attributed to increased consumption ahead of the Labour Day holiday [78]. - Diesel stocks drew by 1.8 mln bbls, driven by a significant uptick in implied diesel demand from 3.97 mbpd to 4.14 mbpd [78]. Additional Important Information - The report includes various exhibits summarizing oil inventory data from multiple sources, including EIA, PJK International, and others [1][2][3][4]. - The data reflects a comprehensive overview of oil stock changes, production levels, and demand trends, which are critical for understanding market dynamics and potential investment opportunities in the oil sector [1][2][3][4].

Summary of China Oil Data Digest - July 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry in China, summarizing supply, demand, and trade data for July 2025. Key Points Apparent Demand - Chinese apparent oil demand grew by +5% YoY in July, averaging 16.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) [2][5] - Demand was driven by strong performance in the petrochemical sector, fuel oil, and jet fuel, with jet fuel consumption increasing by +15% YoY due to robust summer travel [2][23] Crude Imports and Refinery Runs - Crude imports decreased by 1.0 mb/d MoM to 11.2 mb/d, influenced by higher prices from major suppliers like Saudi Arabia and the Atlantic basin [3][48] - Refinery runs declined by 300 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) MoM to 14.9 mb/d, but remained 7% higher YoY due to elevated run rates at state-owned refineries [4][54] Exports - Exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel increased by 190 kb/d MoM, supported by strong refinery output and improving export margins [5][63] - Gasoline exports reached 250 kb/d in July, up 15% MoM, while diesel and jet fuel exports also saw significant increases [63][75] Diesel Demand - Apparent diesel demand softened MoM but showed YoY growth of +2%, marking the first time there were two consecutive months of positive YoY growth since March 2024 [10][15] - The decline in MoM demand was attributed to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions impacting construction activity [11][12] LPG and Naphtha - Apparent LPG demand rose by +9% MoM, driven by improved demand from the petrochemical sector [35] - Apparent naphtha demand fell sharply by 14% MoM, reversing gains from June due to competitive pricing from LPG and ethane [38][43] Crude Production - Chinese crude production fell by 170 kb/d MoM but showed a steady YoY growth of +1% due to new field startups [46][48] Inventory Trends - Crude stocks built by 21.8 million barrels in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of crude builds, likely for strategic reasons [144] - Observable product inventories increased by 9.0 million barrels, driven by strong refinery output and soft domestic demand [145] Future Outlook - Jet fuel demand is expected to remain strong in August due to continued summer travel [29] - Diesel demand may face pressure from slowing export momentum and seasonal construction activity [13] - The independent refining sector is likely to see improved utilization rates due to better margins and increased capacity [121][122] Regulatory Environment - China has released two batches of clean product export quotas for 2025, totaling 34.2 million tonnes, with state-owned companies receiving the majority [87][88] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors, such as US sanctions on Iranian oil, affecting Chinese imports and refining strategies [49][50][52] Conclusion - The July 2025 oil data indicates a mixed outlook for the Chinese oil market, with strong demand in certain sectors like jet fuel and LPG, while facing challenges in diesel and naphtha. The regulatory environment and geopolitical factors will continue to shape market dynamics moving forward.

Summary of the Conference Call on Oil Price Forecast Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the oil industry, specifically the Brent crude oil market and OECD commercial stocks. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Forecasting Framework**: The company expects Brent prices to decline to the low $50s by late 2026, based on a three-step forecasting framework: - An oil surplus forecast averaging 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 [1] - OECD commercial stocks are assumed to account for one-third of global builds [1] - An increase in OECD commercial stocks by one day of demand (approximately 45 million barrels) reduces the fair value of oil prices by over $3 per barrel [1][7] 2. **Current Stock Trends**: - Global visible stocks have built by nearly 1 mb/d year-to-date (YTD), while OECD landed stocks have only increased by 20 million barrels (or 80,000 barrels per day) YTD [12][9] - The majority of YTD builds are concentrated in oil on water and China stocks, with significant increases in floating storage due to sanctions on producers like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [12][9] 3. **China's Impact on Oil Stocks**: - China’s total visible oil stocks have built by 0.4 mb/d YTD, with a base case of 0.3 mb/d pace of builds expected from September 2025 to December 2026 [49][52] - An acceleration in China builds to 0.8 mb/d from the current 0.4 mb/d would raise the 2026 Brent average price by $6 per barrel [50][46] 4. **OECD Stocks as Price Predictors**: - OECD commercial stocks are confirmed to predict Brent timespreads better than total global stocks, even when including estimated invisible non-OECD stocks [1][17] - A 1% rise in OECD commercial stocks is estimated to reduce the fair value of oil prices by 3% [31][28] 5. **Future Price Expectations**: - Prices are expected to remain near current forwards for the rest of 2025 but decline below forwards in 2026 as OECD builds accelerate [46] - The analysis indicates a modest $1-2 upside risk to the 2026 average Brent forecast [46] Additional Important Insights - The analysis highlights the importance of OECD stocks in predicting oil prices, emphasizing their reliability compared to non-OECD data due to better visibility and historical data quality [24][25] - The report discusses the structural trends in OECD versus non-OECD demand, raising questions about the appropriateness of using OECD stocks for global price predictions [17][66] - The company’s refined three-step framework suggests that OECD commercial stocks will build at a pace of 0.6 mb/d through 2026, consistent with their balance estimates [45][46] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the oil market, focusing on price forecasts, stock trends, and the predictive power of OECD commercial stocks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The oil market is anticipated to experience a significant surplus in the coming quarters, which is both large and well-anticipated, suggesting a potential weakening of prices but not a disorderly sell-off [1][10] - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices remains unchanged at $60 per barrel for 1Q 2026 [1][6] Core Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - Demand growth has stabilized at a below-trend rate of 0.75 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2025, with a consensus forecast of approximately 0.85 mb/d [9][24] - Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow robustly, with a projected increase of 0.9 mb/d from mid-2025 to the end of the year, driven by new projects in Brazil and Guyana [9][54] - OPEC supply has increased by approximately 1 mb/d since March, primarily from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but is expected to stabilize moving forward [9][11][66] - **Price Forecasts**: - Despite the anticipated oversupply, Brent prices are expected to remain above $60/bbl due to factors such as storage economics, potential OPEC cuts, and market expectations [14][17] - A surplus of 1.5 mb/d is projected for 4Q 2025, increasing to over 2 mb/d in 1H 2026 [81][83] Additional Important Insights - **Refinery Operations**: - Refinery crude runs are at their highest levels for several quarters, driven by strong margins despite a decline in refining capacity due to shutdowns [3][31] - Observable inventories of refined products have started to rise, indicating that refineries may be overcompensating for closures [35][37] - **Geopolitical Factors**: - Heightened geopolitical risks, including potential sanctions on Iranian oil and tariffs on Indian purchases of Russian oil, could disrupt supply [16] - **Market Sentiment**: - The current market sentiment is characterized by a paradox where oil prices are relatively cheap compared to other assets, yet demand growth remains sluggish [16][28] - **Long-term Outlook**: - The oil market is expected to face challenges in 2026, with a slowdown in non-OPEC supply growth anticipated after a strong exit rate in 2025 [55][56] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the oil market, including supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical considerations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **global oil market**, particularly the dynamics of **Brent crude oil prices** and **OPEC+ production** strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Market Surplus**: A projected average surplus of **890k b/d** from July 2025 through June 2026 is expected, leading to global oil inventory builds of around **100 million barrels** if historical patterns hold [2][10][85]. 2. **Price Forecasts**: Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to average **$63.50/bbl** in the second half of 2025, potentially dropping below **$60/bbl**. However, a recovery to above **$70/bbl** is projected by summer 2026 due to various supportive factors [2][4][21][24]. 3. **OPEC+ Production Strategy**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production, with net volumes rising from **27.8 million b/d** this year to **27.9 million b/d** next year, driven by quota revisions and a strategy to regain market share [15][37]. 4. **US Oil Output**: The US shale oil output growth is slowing, with a **15%** decline in the rig count since March due to lower prices and rising costs. In contrast, Canadian production is expected to grow by **100k b/d** next year [3][27][31]. 5. **Demand Growth**: Global oil demand is projected to grow by **900k b/d** in 2025 and **1 million b/d** in 2026, supported by upward revisions in global GDP growth expectations of **3%** for 2025 and **3.1%** for 2026 [3][7][48]. 6. **Geopolitical Risks**: The ongoing trade war and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, pose significant risks to the oil price outlook. A ceasefire in Ukraine could lead to sanctions relief and increased Russian oil output [3][59][60]. 7. **China's Role**: China has been a major driver of global crude oil inventory builds, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the increase in 1H25. This is part of China's strategy to enhance energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties [87][88]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Contango Market Structure**: The Brent crude market is expected to flip into contango over the next six months, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [4][21]. 2. **Long-term Price Stability**: Despite short-term bearish outlooks, long-dated Brent prices are expected to stabilize in the **$60-$80/bbl** range, with potential recovery into **2H26** [2][4]. 3. **Emerging Market Demand**: Emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are expected to lead incremental oil demand growth, with China projected to consume **16.9 million b/d** and India **6.1 million b/d** by 2026 [54][55]. 4. **Inventory Trends**: Global oil inventories are projected to build by **250k b/d** in 2H25 and **310k b/d** in 1H26, reinforcing the bearish price outlook for the near term [82][85]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the global oil market, highlighting the interplay between supply dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical factors.