Company Overview - Okta is an identity and access management firm with a market capitalization of $16 billion and reported revenue of $2.7 billion over the past twelve months [2] - The company achieved operational profitability with $23 million in operating profits and a net income of $130 million [2] Earnings Release Insights - Okta is scheduled to announce its earnings on August 26, 2025, and the results will be crucial in determining market expectations and consensus [2] - Historical trends can provide traders with insights into potential outcomes surrounding the earnings release [3] Historical Performance Analysis - Over the past five years, Okta has recorded 20 earnings data points, resulting in 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a 50% chance of positive returns [5] - The median of the 10 positive returns is 12%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -8.9% [5] Correlation of Returns - Analyzing the correlation between 1D, 5D, and 21D returns can help traders position themselves effectively based on historical performance [4][6] - A strategy that focuses on the strongest correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can be beneficial, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show a high correlation [4]

Company Performance - Okta's stock closed at $89.83, reflecting a -1.32% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.4% [1] - Over the past month, Okta's shares have decreased by 4.81%, while the Computer and Technology sector gained 1.1% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.67% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Okta's earnings report is scheduled for August 26, 2025, with expected earnings of $0.84 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 16.67% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is projected at $711.04 million, reflecting a 10.07% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $3.28 per share and revenue at $2.86 billion, representing year-over-year changes of +16.73% and +9.44%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Okta are crucial for investors, as positive revisions indicate optimism about the business outlook [3] - Okta currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Rank system showing an impressive track record of outperformance [5] Valuation Metrics - Okta's Forward P/E ratio is 27.73, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 63.52 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.64, while the Security industry has an average PEG ratio of 2.64 [6] Industry Context - The Security industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 81, placing it in the top 33% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

In its upcoming report, Okta (OKTA) is predicted by Wall Street analysts to post quarterly earnings of $0.84 per share, reflecting an increase of 16.7% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $711.04 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This represents how the covering analysts, as a whole, have reassessed their initial estimates during this timeframe. Prior to a company ...

Core Insights - Okta (OKTA) shares have declined 27.2% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 15.4% and the Zacks Security industry's fall of 8.5% [1][7] - The decline is attributed to slowing federal business, challenging macroeconomic conditions, and stiff competition in the Identity and Access management domain [1][10] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2026, Okta expects revenues between $2.85 billion and $2.86 billion, indicating 9-10% growth from fiscal 2025 [10] - Non-GAAP earnings are projected between $3.23 and $3.28 per share, suggesting 16.7% growth year-over-year [11] - Second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues are anticipated to be between $710 million and $712 million, reflecting 10% year-over-year growth [12] Market Position - Okta shares are currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [5] - The company's Value Score is D, indicating that Okta shares are overvalued compared to peers like Cisco [9] Product and Innovation - Okta is expanding its AI-driven identity tools and partnerships, which are expected to drive long-term growth [7][13] - The launch of the Cross App Access protocol aims to enhance security for AI agents, reflecting Okta's commitment to protecting customers deploying AI [14] Partnerships and Liquidity - Okta has a rich partner base, including major companies like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Palo Alto Networks, with over 7,000 integrations [16] - The company ended Q1 FY26 with $2.73 billion in cash, indicating strong liquidity, and raised free cash flow margin guidance to roughly 27% [18] Customer Growth - Okta exited Q1 FY26 with approximately 20,000 customers, with a notable increase in customers with over $100,000 in Annual Contract Value [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of Wall Street analysts' recommendations, particularly focusing on Okta (OKTA), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other analytical tools for investment decisions [1][5]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - Okta has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00, indicating a "Buy" based on recommendations from 41 brokerage firms [2]. - Among the 41 recommendations, 21 are classified as "Strong Buy" and 2 as "Buy," accounting for 51.2% and 4.9% of total recommendations, respectively [2]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Studies indicate that brokerage recommendations have limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the highest price increase potential [5]. - Analysts often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to the vested interests of brokerage firms, leading to a disproportionate number of favorable ratings compared to negative ones [6][10]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock rating tool that classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimate revisions, providing a more reliable indicator of near-term price performance compared to ABR [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is updated more frequently than ABR, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates, which can better indicate future price movements [12]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for Okta - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Okta's current year earnings remains unchanged at $3.28, suggesting steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, Okta holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious approach despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

I last covered Okta (:NASDAQ: OKTA ) on August 26, 2024, where I gave it a buy recommendation despite it underperforming the market. At the time, management believed that the threat of recession held small and medium-sized businesses ("SMB") companies back from purchasing newI have been a Merchant Seaman that has traveled the world for over 30 years. Within the last 15 years, I developed a very intense interest in investing. I learned a lot of what I know about investing from The MF. Also because I have a e ...

Core Viewpoint - Okta, Inc. experienced a significant valuation increase during the pandemic but has struggled to recover from a decline in 2022, with growth slowing and lacking specific catalysts for improvement [1]. Company Summary - Okta's valuation surged during the pandemic but has not fully recovered since the drop in 2022 [1]. - The company is facing a slowdown in growth, indicating potential challenges ahead [1]. Industry Context - The article discusses growth opportunities in technology sectors, highlighting the importance of analyzing fundamentals driven by current and future trends [1].

Core Viewpoint - Okta (OKTA) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, continuing a strong trend in the Zacks Security industry [1]. Earnings Performance - Okta has demonstrated a strong track record of surpassing earnings estimates, averaging a 9.27% beat over the last two quarters [2]. - In the most recent quarter, Okta reported earnings of $0.77 per share against an expectation of $0.86, resulting in a surprise of 11.69%. In the previous quarter, the company reported $0.78 per share against a consensus of $0.73, achieving a surprise of 6.85% [3]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Okta have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [6]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have historically produced positive surprises nearly 70% of the time, suggesting a high probability of beating consensus estimates [7]. Earnings ESP Analysis - Okta currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.67%, reflecting increased analyst optimism regarding the company's earnings prospects. This, combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggests a strong possibility of another earnings beat [9]. - The Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate being more reflective of recent analyst revisions [8].

Even after a year that was anything but smooth, I think Okta (NASDAQ: OKTA ) is still being underestimated. Sure, it's not the screaming bargain it was last year, but the current With over 15 years of experience in the markets and a degree in economics, I focus on breaking down companies with clarity and discipline. My goal is to give individual investors a straightforward, honest view— what's working, what isn't, and where the risks and opportunities actually are. I don't chase narratives. I follow the num ...

Investment Recommendations - Zacks ranks Okta (OKTA) and CyberArk (CYBR) as strong buys for aggressive growth portfolios [1][9] - The analyst suggests that Okta's stock could increase by 50% within a year, potentially reaching over $150 [8] - CyberArk's stock appears poised to retest the $400 level, making it a worthwhile addition to an aggressive growth watch list [15] Okta (OKTA) Analysis - Okta's market capitalization is $17 billion [2] - The company has consistently exceeded earnings expectations, with an average surprise of 12% to 18% over several quarters [3] - Okta's operating margins are projected to increase from 11% to 66%, indicating strong earnings growth potential [7] - The company exhibits stable growth, with projected growth rates of 94% this year and 96% next year [5] - Okta's valuation shows a price-to-book ratio below 3, which may appeal to value investors, and a price-to-forward sales ratio of 64% [6] CyberArk (CYBR) Analysis - CyberArk's market capitalization is approximately $18-19 billion [9] - The company has shown an average earnings surprise of 44% [10] - CyberArk is experiencing significant topline growth, with a 31%-32% increase expected this year and 19% next year [11] - CyberArk's valuation is high, with a forward earnings multiple of 100x and a price-to-book ratio of 78x, but it has a healthy price-to-sales ratio of 17x [12]