Okta, Inc. (NASDAQ:OKTA) BMO 2025 Virtual Software Conference June 10, 2025 11:30 AM ET Company Participants Brett Tighe - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Keith Frances Bachman - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research Keith Frances Bachman All right. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody. It's Keith Bachman here from BMO. We're continuing on our virtual software conference. Thrilled to have Okta and Brett. And we're just going to go ahead and launch into it, normal format. [Operator Inst ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Okta - **Industry**: Identity and Access Management (IAM) Software Key Points and Arguments Strategic Focus Areas - Okta aims to become one of the world's most secure companies, emphasizing four key areas: security, new product introduction, partner ecosystem penetration, and go-to-market specialization [2][3][7] - Go-to-market specialization is highlighted as the most exciting area for growth in the next 12 to 18 months, with a focus on deepening product knowledge and specialization in various geographies and segments [3][6][7] Market Segmentation and Performance - The U.S. public sector accounts for less than 10% of Okta's total business, with federal contracts being a small subset of that [9][10] - Despite short-term turbulence due to macroeconomic uncertainties, Okta believes it is well-positioned for long-term growth in the federal sector, aligning with government priorities of security, modernization, and efficiency [12] Guidance and Growth Expectations - Okta's guidance reflects a more conservative approach compared to previous years, with a focus on reducing variability in revenue growth expectations [15][20] - The company is targeting revenue growth rates of 9% to 10%, which is a shift from the higher growth rates seen in previous years [18][21] New Logo Growth and Market Opportunities - Okta sees significant opportunities for new logo growth, particularly in the identity solution market, despite concerns about market saturation [23][24] - The company emphasizes the importance of both quantity and quality in new logos, with a focus on accounts generating over $100,000 in Annual Contract Value (ACV) [26][27] Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is identified as the primary competitor in the workforce identity space, with Okta maintaining a competitive edge through product differentiation [35][37] - The competitive dynamics remain stable, with no significant changes noted in the strategies of competitors like Ping and ForgeRock since they went private [40] Governance and Lifecycle Management - Governance is seen as a key growth area, with Okta aiming to increase its penetration from the current 1,300 governance customers out of over 20,000 total customers [41][42] - Lifecycle management is considered a subset of governance, with upsell opportunities from existing customers [65][66] Product Development and Future Outlook - Okta acknowledges that its Privileged Access Management (PAM) capabilities are still developing but sees potential for growth in this area over the next 12 to 18 months [75][78] - The nonhuman identity market is viewed as an emerging opportunity, with Okta positioned to address the challenges associated with managing nonhuman identities [80][85] Financial Guidance and Market Trends - The recent guidance for CRPO (Contracted Recurring Revenue) was weaker than expected, reflecting the company's cautious approach to market conditions and the costs associated with specialization [97][99] - Okta is optimistic about long-term growth despite current challenges, with a focus on execution and market adaptation [99][100] Additional Important Insights - Okta's strategy includes a cohesive platform approach that integrates various identity management solutions, which is expected to enhance customer value and ROI [56][58] - The company is aware of the technology sprawl in the market and aims to consolidate offerings under a single provider model over time [59][60]

With the increased use of NHIs and AI agents, especially with machine identities, there is a huge opportunity for Okta. This goes the same for the Total addressable market (TAM). As of now, Okta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ: OKTA ) is amongAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of OKTA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have ...

Industry Overview - The digital economy has elevated cybersecurity from a background IT concern to a top priority for businesses, as they face increasing cyber threats such as ransomware, data breaches, and phishing attacks [1] - The global cybersecurity market is projected to grow from $193.73 billion in 2024 to $562.72 billion by 2032, reflecting a strong CAGR of 14.3%, driven by the complexity of IT systems, tighter regulations, and the need to protect sensitive data [2] Technological Advancements - Traditional security tools are becoming inadequate against smarter and faster cyberattacks, leading to a shift towards artificial intelligence (AI) for proactive threat detection and response [3] - AI is being integrated into cybersecurity solutions to analyze large volumes of data, enabling companies to automate detection and response processes [3] Company Highlights - **CyberArk Software (CYBR)**: Focuses on identity security solutions, leveraging AI to enhance its leadership in the identity security space with innovations like the Secure AI Agent solution [6][8] - **Qualys (QLYS)**: Specializes in vulnerability management and cloud security, enhancing its AI capabilities to improve threat detection and remediation [9][10] - **Okta (OKTA)**: Concentrates on identity and access management, ramping up AI capabilities to address the complexities of digital identities, with innovations like Identity Threat Protection with Okta AI [12][13] - **A10 Networks (ATEN)**: Advances its AI-driven cybersecurity strategy through acquisitions and scalable solutions, positioning itself for growth in AI data center deployments [15][16][17] Market Positioning - CyberArk's unified platform offers critical capabilities for identity security, enhancing its market relevance and customer value proposition [7][8] - Qualys' AI-powered platform is expected to drive customer adoption and long-term revenue growth [11] - Okta's growing customer base, particularly among Fortune 500 clients, positions it as a compelling long-term investment [14] - A10 Networks is well-placed to benefit from the intersection of AI and cybersecurity, supported by strong margins and disciplined capital allocation [17]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Security industry is experiencing strong demand for cybersecurity products due to the increasing need for secure networks and cloud-based applications, particularly in hybrid work environments [1] - The surge in demand is driven by a significant rise in data breaches, leading companies to seek comprehensive IT security solutions [1] - The industry encompasses both on-premise and cloud-based security solutions, including identity access management, infrastructure protection, integrated risk management, malware analysis, and Internet traffic management [3] Major Trends - Rising cyber threats are escalating the need for robust security solutions, impacting not only individual companies but also national security [4] - The shift towards digital transformation and cloud migration is driving demand for cybersecurity solutions across various sectors, including education, healthcare, and entertainment [5] - Macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical issues may lead enterprises to delay significant IT investments, potentially affecting the security market in the short term [6] Company Performance - Companies like CyberArk Software, Okta, and Qualys are benefiting from the trends in the cybersecurity market [2] - CyberArk Software is experiencing growth due to rising demand for privileged access security solutions, with a strong presence across various sectors [21] - Qualys is well-positioned to navigate market challenges with its diverse customer base and continuous innovation in information security solutions [28] - Okta's identity security solutions are gaining traction as organizations adopt digital transformation strategies, serving approximately 20,000 customers [33] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Security industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 19, placing it among the top 8% of nearly 250 Zacks industries, indicating solid near-term prospects [8] - The industry's bottom-line estimate for 2025 has increased to $1.45 from $1.35, reflecting analysts' optimism about earnings growth potential [10] - Over the past year, the Zacks Security industry has outperformed the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500, with a return of 38.3% compared to 11.8% and 11.9% respectively [13] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 14.77, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 5.12 and the sector's 6.37 [16] - Over the last five years, the industry's price-to-sales ratio has ranged from a high of 19.36X to a low of 6.92X, with a median of 12.56X [17]

Core Insights - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for Okta (OKTA) is 1.92, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy based on 40 brokerage firms' recommendations [2] - Of the 40 recommendations, 21 are Strong Buy (52.5%) and 2 are Buy (5%) [2] - Analysts' optimism regarding Okta's earnings prospects is reflected in a recent 11.5% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year, now at $3.28 [13] Brokerage Recommendations - Brokerage recommendations are often influenced by the vested interests of the firms, leading to a bias in favor of positive ratings [6][10] - For every "Strong Sell" recommendation, there are five "Strong Buy" recommendations, indicating a potential misalignment with retail investors' interests [6][7] - The ABR is calculated based on brokerage recommendations and may not always be up-to-date, while the Zacks Rank is more timely and driven by earnings estimate revisions [12] Zacks Rank Comparison - The Zacks Rank categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimate revisions, with Okta currently holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [14] - The Zacks Rank is considered a more effective indicator of stock price performance compared to the ABR, as it reflects timely changes in earnings estimates [11][12] - The ABR for Okta aligns with the Zacks Rank, providing a useful guide for investors [14]

Core Insights - Okta, a leading cybersecurity firm specializing in identity and access management, has seen a stock decrease of approximately 10% over the last month despite reporting strong first-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations [2][3] - The company's stock has increased nearly 30% year-to-date, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors [2] Financial Performance - In Q1, Okta's revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $688 million, surpassing the forecast of $678 million to $680 million [3] - Subscription revenue also rose 12% to $673 million, while adjusted EPS increased 24% year-over-year to $0.86 [3] - The company reported positive free cash flow of $238 million for the quarter, marking an 11% year-over-year growth [3] - The net dollar retention rate was 106%, down from 111% a year prior [3] Growth Forecast - Okta has maintained its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast of $2.85 billion to $2.86 billion, indicating a growth of 9-10% [4] - For Q2, the company projects revenue growth of 10% to $710-$712 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.83-$0.84 [4] Market Outlook - The overall cybersecurity market is expected to grow significantly, with investments projected to exceed $298 billion annually by 2028 [5] - Okta's identity management platform is crucial for securing access across various applications, especially as companies adopt cloud-based solutions [5] - Management has noted strong demand for new offerings, such as Identity Governance and Privileged Access [5] Valuation Analysis - Okta has a market capitalization of $17 billion and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 6x based on fiscal 2026 revenue estimates, which is reasonable compared to other cybersecurity stocks [6] - However, trading at 25 times its trailing free cash flow, Okta stock appears somewhat expensive given its low-teens revenue and free cash flow growth [6]

1. Snowflake Within the technology sector, software stocks have outperformed hardware stocks by 26 percentage points year to date. Software companies are more attractive in the current market environment (particularly those involved with artificial intelligence) because they are generally exempt from tariffs. Investors can lean into that trend with Snowflake (SNOW 2.06%) and Okta (OKTA 1.56%). Both stocks handily beat the broader software industry through the first five months of 2025, and most Wall Street ...

Core Viewpoint - Okta's stock price fell over 15% following its FQ1 earnings release, despite solid performance and guidance for Q2, primarily due to cautious full-year guidance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Okta reported a Q1 revenue growth of 11.5%, down from nearly 20% year-over-year, but exceeded consensus estimates by over 100 basis points [6]. - The core subscription business grew by 12% year-over-year, contributing to the overall performance [6]. - Gross and operating margins improved compared to the previous year, leading to a record profit, with free cash flow of $238.1 million, representing approximately 34.6% of revenue [7]. Group 2: Guidance and Outlook - The full-year guidance was reaffirmed, projecting a revenue increase of about 10%, which is expected to sustain cash flow and business growth [8]. - Q2 guidance anticipates another 10% year-over-year revenue gain, supported by a 14% increase in current remaining performance obligation (CRPO) and a 21% increase in remaining performance obligation (RPO) [8]. Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - The consensus sentiment for Okta is a Moderate Buy, an improvement from last year's Hold, with expectations of at least a 20% rise from the May close [4]. - The consensus price target has increased by 5% in May and 16% year-over-year, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - Despite a downgrade from Moderate Buy to Hold by one analyst due to valuation concerns, the majority of analysts foresee a high-end price range of $130 to $140, suggesting a potential gain of nearly 40% [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Okta's stock price forecast indicates a 17.31% upside, with a current price of $103.65 and a high forecast of $140.00 [9]. - Short interest in Okta's stock is elevated at nearly 5%, which could lead to volatility in the stock price [9][10]. - The stock is currently above critical support levels, suggesting potential for a rebound if the market remains stable [10].

Core Viewpoint - Okta's stock experienced a decline following cautious guidance despite a solid fiscal Q1 performance, reflecting broader economic uncertainties and a conservative outlook from management [2][3]. Financial Performance - For fiscal Q1, Okta reported a revenue increase of 12% year over year to $688 million, surpassing the previous forecast of $678 million to $680 million [6]. - Subscription revenue also rose by 12% to $673 million, while adjusted EPS increased by 24% year over year to $0.86, exceeding the outlook of $0.76 to $0.77 [6]. - The company maintained its full-year revenue forecast for fiscal 2026 at $2.85 billion to $2.86 billion, indicating a growth of 9% to 10% [3]. Customer Metrics - Okta's net dollar retention rate was 106%, indicating growth, although it has decreased from 111% a year ago [7]. - The number of customers with annual contract values (ACVs) above $100,000 increased by 7% to 4,870, and those with ACVs over $1 million rose by 20% year over year [7]. Backlog and Future Guidance - The remaining performance obligation (RPO) backlog grew by 21% to $4.08 billion, while the current RPO backlog increased by 14% to nearly $2.23 billion, indicating future revenue potential [8]. - For fiscal Q2, management guided for approximately 10% revenue growth, projecting revenue between $710 million and $712 million, with adjusted EPS expected to be between $0.83 and $0.84 [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Okta highlighted strong demand for newer products such as Identity Governance and Privileged Access, and is addressing rising security risks associated with AI [4]. - The company is implementing a specialized sales strategy, which has shown early positive results in its U.S. small and mid-sized business team [5]. Market Position - Despite a cautious approach to guidance, Okta is positioned to capitalize on growing market opportunities in the evolving cybersecurity landscape, particularly with the integration of AI [10]. - With a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 6.4 based on fiscal 2026 revenue estimates, Okta remains reasonably valued compared to other leading cybersecurity stocks, presenting a potential buying opportunity [11].