Truist：将Okta的目标价从100美元上调至125美元，评级从"持有"上调至"买入"。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - Okta Inc's stock is experiencing positive momentum ahead of its earnings report, with an upgrade from Truist Securities indicating potential for earnings and revenue growth in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Okta's shares rose by 1.7% to $93.62 as investors anticipate the upcoming earnings report [1]. - The stock is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain, maintaining a 17.2% year-to-date increase despite earlier volatility [2]. - The stock has found support at the $90 level after experiencing significant price fluctuations this year [2]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Analysts are divided on Okta's performance post-earnings report, with 24 firms maintaining a "buy" or better rating, while 18 firms are more cautious with "hold" or worse ratings [3]. Group 3: Options Trading Activity - Options traders are betting on the stock's underperformance, with a notable increase in put options volume, reaching 4,400 contracts, which is double the usual amount [4]. - The most popular put option is the weekly August 65-strike, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [4]. Group 4: Long-term Confidence - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, traders show long-term confidence in Okta, as evidenced by a high 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.97, ranking above 93% of readings from the past year [5].

Okta, Inc. OKTA will release financial results for the second quarter after the closing bell on Tuesday, Aug. 26.Analysts expect the San Francisco, California-based company to report quarterly earnings at 85 cents per share, up from 72 cents per share in the year-ago period. Okta projects to report quarterly revenue at $711.84 million, compared to $646 million a year earlier, according to data from Benzinga Pro.On Aug. 14, Okta announced the appointment of David Schellhase and Mary Agnes Wilderotter to the ...

Core Insights - Okta and SentinelOne are significant players in the enterprise security software market, with Okta focusing on cloud-based identity solutions and SentinelOne on endpoint security and threat detection [1][2] Industry Overview - Gartner projects enterprise spending on cybersecurity software and network security to grow by 14% in 2025, reaching $118.5 billion, driven by demand for Generative AI and cloud adoption [2] - IDC anticipates global cybersecurity spending to increase by 12.2% year-over-year in 2025, with security software spending expected to grow by 14.4% year-over-year [2] Okta's Performance - Okta's innovative portfolio includes AI-powered capabilities and a strong demand for new products, leading to a customer base of approximately 20,000 as of Q1 FY26 [4][6] - The company has over 7,000 integrations with various applications and IT infrastructure providers [4] - Subscription revenue for Q2 FY26 is estimated at $697 million, reflecting a 10.3% growth from the previous year [7] - Okta's shares have appreciated by 16.5% year-to-date, outperforming SentinelOne [13] SentinelOne's Performance - SentinelOne's Singularity platform offers comprehensive security solutions, with significant growth driven by its AI and automation capabilities [8] - The Purple AI component saw triple-digit quarterly bookings growth year-over-year in Q1 FY26, with an attach rate exceeding 25% [9] - The company is in the process of acquiring Prompt Security to enhance its AI-native platform [10] - SentinelOne's shares have declined by 23.9% year-to-date [13] Valuation and Market Position - Okta's forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio is 5.22X, while SentinelOne's is lower at 4.99X [17] - Both companies are considered overvalued, with Okta holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and SentinelOne a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [16][21]

Core Insights - Okta (OKTA) is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on August 26, with anticipated non-GAAP earnings between 83-84 cents per share and revenues projected at $710-$712 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10% [1][9] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has remained steady at 84 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 16.7%, while the revenue consensus is pegged at $711 million, showing an increase of 10.1% from the previous year [2] - Okta has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 13.53% [2] Business Growth Factors - Okta's expanding product portfolio, particularly in security and identity governance, is expected to drive client acquisition and revenue growth, with approximately 20,000 customers reported at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [3] - The number of customers with over $100,000 in Annual Contract Value increased by 70 sequentially to 4,870, indicating strong subscription revenue growth [3] - New product momentum, including offerings like Identity Governance and Identity Threat Protection with Okta AI, is anticipated to contribute positively to the upcoming quarter's performance [4] Strategic Partnerships - Okta benefits from a robust partner ecosystem, including major companies like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Salesforce, with over 7,000 integrations with various applications and IT infrastructure providers [5][17] Market Position and Competition - Despite strong growth, Okta faces challenges from sluggish federal business and competition from Microsoft and other enterprise security providers like SentinelOne and Cisco [6] - Year-to-date, Okta shares have increased by 13.9%, outperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the Zacks Security industry [7] Valuation Insights - Okta's stock is currently considered overvalued, with a Value Score of D, and a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 5.22X, higher than competitors like SentinelOne and Cisco [11] - For fiscal 2026, Okta expects revenues between $2.85 billion and $2.86 billion, indicating a growth of 9-10% from fiscal 2025 [16] Financial Health - Okta ended the first quarter of fiscal 2026 with $2.73 billion in cash and investments, with net cash provided by operations at $241 million and free cash flow at $238 million, raising free cash flow margin guidance to approximately 27% for fiscal 2026 [18]

Company Overview - Okta is an identity and access management firm with a market capitalization of $16 billion and reported revenue of $2.7 billion over the past twelve months [2] - The company achieved operational profitability with $23 million in operating profits and a net income of $130 million [2] Earnings Release Insights - Okta is scheduled to announce its earnings on August 26, 2025, and the results will be crucial in determining market expectations and consensus [2] - Historical trends can provide traders with insights into potential outcomes surrounding the earnings release [3] Historical Performance Analysis - Over the past five years, Okta has recorded 20 earnings data points, resulting in 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a 50% chance of positive returns [5] - The median of the 10 positive returns is 12%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -8.9% [5] Correlation of Returns - Analyzing the correlation between 1D, 5D, and 21D returns can help traders position themselves effectively based on historical performance [4][6] - A strategy that focuses on the strongest correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can be beneficial, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show a high correlation [4]

Company Performance - Okta's stock closed at $89.83, reflecting a -1.32% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.4% [1] - Over the past month, Okta's shares have decreased by 4.81%, while the Computer and Technology sector gained 1.1% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.67% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Okta's earnings report is scheduled for August 26, 2025, with expected earnings of $0.84 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 16.67% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is projected at $711.04 million, reflecting a 10.07% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $3.28 per share and revenue at $2.86 billion, representing year-over-year changes of +16.73% and +9.44%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Okta are crucial for investors, as positive revisions indicate optimism about the business outlook [3] - Okta currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Rank system showing an impressive track record of outperformance [5] Valuation Metrics - Okta's Forward P/E ratio is 27.73, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 63.52 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.64, while the Security industry has an average PEG ratio of 2.64 [6] Industry Context - The Security industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 81, placing it in the top 33% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Okta (OKTA) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.84 per share, a 16.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $711.04 million, reflecting a 10.1% year-over-year growth [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' projections [1] Revenue Projections - Analysts forecast 'Revenue- Subscription' to be $696.61 million, representing a 10.2% increase from the same quarter last year [3] - 'Revenue- Professional services and other' is estimated at $14.49 million, indicating a 3.5% year-over-year growth [4] Performance Obligations - Current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) are expected to reach $2.20 billion, up from $2.00 billion reported in the same quarter last year [4] - Remaining performance obligations are projected to be $4.10 billion, compared to $3.51 billion a year ago [5] Gross Margin and Customer Metrics - Analysts predict 'Gross margin- Subscription' to be 83.6%, an increase from 78.0% in the same quarter last year [5] - Total Customers are expected to reach 20,426, up from 19,300 a year ago [5] Stock Performance - Okta shares have decreased by 4.8% in the past month, contrasting with a 1.7% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the overall market [6]

Core Insights - Okta (OKTA) shares have declined 27.2% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 15.4% and the Zacks Security industry's fall of 8.5% [1][7] - The decline is attributed to slowing federal business, challenging macroeconomic conditions, and stiff competition in the Identity and Access management domain [1][10] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2026, Okta expects revenues between $2.85 billion and $2.86 billion, indicating 9-10% growth from fiscal 2025 [10] - Non-GAAP earnings are projected between $3.23 and $3.28 per share, suggesting 16.7% growth year-over-year [11] - Second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues are anticipated to be between $710 million and $712 million, reflecting 10% year-over-year growth [12] Market Position - Okta shares are currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [5] - The company's Value Score is D, indicating that Okta shares are overvalued compared to peers like Cisco [9] Product and Innovation - Okta is expanding its AI-driven identity tools and partnerships, which are expected to drive long-term growth [7][13] - The launch of the Cross App Access protocol aims to enhance security for AI agents, reflecting Okta's commitment to protecting customers deploying AI [14] Partnerships and Liquidity - Okta has a rich partner base, including major companies like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Palo Alto Networks, with over 7,000 integrations [16] - The company ended Q1 FY26 with $2.73 billion in cash, indicating strong liquidity, and raised free cash flow margin guidance to roughly 27% [18] Customer Growth - Okta exited Q1 FY26 with approximately 20,000 customers, with a notable increase in customers with over $100,000 in Annual Contract Value [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of Wall Street analysts' recommendations, particularly focusing on Okta (OKTA), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other analytical tools for investment decisions [1][5]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - Okta has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00, indicating a "Buy" based on recommendations from 41 brokerage firms [2]. - Among the 41 recommendations, 21 are classified as "Strong Buy" and 2 as "Buy," accounting for 51.2% and 4.9% of total recommendations, respectively [2]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Studies indicate that brokerage recommendations have limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the highest price increase potential [5]. - Analysts often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to the vested interests of brokerage firms, leading to a disproportionate number of favorable ratings compared to negative ones [6][10]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock rating tool that classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimate revisions, providing a more reliable indicator of near-term price performance compared to ABR [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is updated more frequently than ABR, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates, which can better indicate future price movements [12]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for Okta - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Okta's current year earnings remains unchanged at $3.28, suggesting steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, Okta holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious approach despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].