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On October 5, 2024, I last covered Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX ), when the stock traded at $137.88, appearing slightly overvalued with an expected return potential of 8.5%. I rated the stock a Hold based onI have a masters degree in Analytics from Northwestern University and a bachelors degree in Accounting. I have worked in the investment arena for over 10 years starting as an analyst and working my way up to a management role. Dividend investing is a personal hobby and I look forward to sharing my thought ...

On October 5, 2024, I last covered Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX ), when the stock traded at $137.88, appearing slightly overvalued with an expected return potential of 8.5%. I rated the stock a Hold based onI have a masters degree in Analytics from Northwestern University and a bachelors degree in Accounting. I have worked in the investment arena for over 10 years starting as an analyst and working my way up to a management role. Dividend investing is a personal hobby and I look forward to sharing my thought ...

Core Viewpoint - Paychex's shares experienced a decline following the release of its fiscal first-quarter results, primarily due to revenue meeting expectations and a steady revenue outlook despite an improved earnings forecast [1][3][4] Financial Performance - Total revenue increased by 17% year over year to approximately $1.54 billion, aligning with Wall Street consensus [3] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.22, slightly surpassing consensus forecasts [3] Guidance and Market Reaction - Management raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS growth outlook to a range of 9% to 11%, up from 8.5% to 10.5%, while maintaining the revenue growth range at 16.5% to 18.5% [4] - The combination of improved EPS guidance but unchanged revenue outlook may have contributed to the stock's sell-off [4] Valuation and Market Position - Paychex trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple in the mid-20s, which is considered fair for a stable, cash-generative payroll and HR platform [5] - The business model remains attractive due to sticky clients, recurring revenue, and pricing power related to compliance complexity [6] Dividend Yield - Shareholders currently benefit from a dividend yield of approximately 3.4% [8]

Core Insights - Job growth among U.S. small businesses with fewer than 50 employees remains largely unchanged over the last year [1] - The Small Business Jobs Index, a key component of the Paychex report, has fluctuated just over a half percentage point over the last 12 months [1] - Hourly earnings are experiencing growth [1]

Core Insights - Paychex reported revenue of $1.54 billion for the quarter ended August 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 16.8% and a slight revenue surprise of +0.22% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.22, up from $1.16 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of +0.83% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.21 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Management Solutions revenue was $1.16 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.17 billion from six analysts, but showed a year-over-year increase of +21% [4] - Interest on funds held for clients generated $47.6 million, exceeding the estimated $43.75 million, with a year-over-year change of +26.9% [4] - Total service revenue reached $1.49 billion, slightly below the $1.5 billion estimate, marking a +16.5% increase year-over-year [4] - PEO and Insurance Services revenue was $329.1 million, compared to the average estimate of $333.29 million, reflecting a +3.1% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Paychex shares have returned -7.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.2% change, indicating potential underperformance in the near term [3]

Paychex (PAYX) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.16 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +0.83%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this payroll processor and human-resources services provider would post earnings of $1.18 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.19, delivering a surprise of +0.85%.O ...

The consensus price target for Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) has been adjusted from $150.86 to $140, with Citigroup setting a more optimistic target at $145.Paychex is anticipated to report a 16.6% year-over-year revenue increase in its upcoming first-quarter earnings, driven by strong segment performance and contributions from Paycor.The Paychex Small Business Employment Watch indicates stable job growth among U.S. small businesses, though hourly earnings for workers are below expectations, reflecting broad ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones falling more than 100 points, down 0.26% to 46,195.25, NASDAQ down 0.21% to 22,544.07, and S&P 500 down 0.17% to 6,649.65 [1] - Health care shares increased by 0.8%, while energy stocks decreased by 1.7% [1] Company Performance - Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX) stock fell around 4% after reporting fiscal Q1 2026 results, with sales growth of 17% year-over-year to $1.540 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.538 billion [2] - Adjusted EPS of $1.22 beat the consensus estimate of $1.21, and the company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.43-$5.53, compared to the analyst consensus of $5.45 [2] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell by 1.8% to $62.33, while gold prices rose by 0.5% to $3,875.40 [4] - Silver decreased by 0.4% to $46.825, and copper fell by 0.5% to $4.8680 [4] International Markets - European shares were mostly higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 gaining 0.2% and Spain's IBEX 35 Index rising 0.8% [5] - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.25% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.87% [6] Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed's general business activity index fell 12 points to -5.6 in September [7] - U.S. job openings rose by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August [10] - The Chicago Business Barometer declined to 40.6 in September from 41.5 in the previous month, below market expectations of 43 [10] - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased by 1.8% year-over-year in July, while the FHFA house price index declined by 0.1% from the previous month [10] Stock Movements - Zhengye Biotechnology Holding Limited (NASDAQ: ZYBT) shares surged 70% to $3.72, while Beneficient (NASDAQ: BENF) shares rose 62% to $0.5898 after reporting fourth-quarter results [8] - Sunrise New Energy Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: EPOW) shares increased by 52% to $1.37 following a patent grant [8] - Erayak Power Solution Group Inc. (NASDAQ: RAYA) shares dropped 45% to $4.6888, and NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: NBY) fell 13% to $1.35 [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a robust 17% revenue growth, reaching $1.5 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [4][14] - Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 5% to $1.22, while diluted EPS decreased by 10% to $1.06 [14][15] - Total expenses rose by 29% to $998 million, primarily due to the Paycor acquisition [15] - Cash flow from operations was $718 million, with a return on equity of 40% [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Management Solutions revenue increased by 21% to $1.2 billion, driven by the Paycor acquisition and higher revenue per client [14] - PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue grew by 3% to $329 million, supported by an increase in average PEO worksite employees [14] - Interest on funds held for clients surged by 27% to $48 million due to the inclusion of Paycor balances [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The small business employment environment remains stable, with no signs of recession and moderate wage inflation [11][12] - The company noted a strong demand for its PEO services, with mid-single-digit worksite employee growth [11][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The integration of Paycor is progressing well, with targeted revenue synergies and cost synergies expected to exceed initial estimates [4][5] - The company is focusing on cross-selling opportunities, particularly in retirement, ASO, and PEO solutions to Paycor's client base [5][6] - New product offerings, such as BillPay, are aimed at enhancing service delivery and client experience [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the macroeconomic environment, citing renewed business confidence due to clarity on tariffs, taxes, and inflation [11][12] - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook of 16.5% to 18.5%, with adjusted diluted EPS growth now expected to be between 9% and 11% [16][17] Other Important Information - The company has launched several AI-driven initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and client support [9][10] - Paychex was recognized by Newsweek as one of America's greatest companies and most admired workplaces, highlighting the importance of its workforce [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand environment and employer size segments - Management noted that demand remains consistent, with solid activity across all segments, particularly in the micro segment [20][21] Question: Paycor's recurring revenue growth - Management confirmed that recurring revenue for Paycor is expected to grow in double digits for the full year, despite some headwinds in Q1 [22] Question: PEO environment characterization - Management indicated that the PEO continues to perform well, with record retention and strong demand, despite some competitive challenges in specific markets [25][26] Question: Direct expenses and SG&A comparison - Management highlighted that direct expenses showed strong leverage, while SG&A expenses were impacted by the Paycor acquisition [31][32] Question: Integration-related disruptions affecting Paycor's growth - Management clarified that Q1 performance was in line with expectations, and integration challenges were being managed effectively [36][38] Question: Retention rates and bankruptcy impacts - Management reported strong retention rates, with concentrated losses in small businesses due to bankruptcies, but overall retention remains robust [50][51] Question: PEO market competitiveness - Management described the competitive environment as stable, with a focus on delivering value rather than engaging in aggressive pricing strategies [59][60] Question: Bill.com partnership and customer profile - Management expressed excitement about the Bill.com partnership, aimed at enhancing payment capabilities for small businesses [65][66] Question: AI integration and productivity improvements - Management discussed ongoing AI initiatives to improve productivity and client service, emphasizing the potential for significant value creation [72][73] Question: Cost synergies and future milestones - Management indicated that most cost synergy actions are complete, with additional opportunities in procurement and operational efficiencies [88][89]