On October 5, 2024, I last covered Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX ), when the stock traded at $137.88, appearing slightly overvalued with an expected return potential of 8.5%. I rated the stock a Hold based onI have a masters degree in Analytics from Northwestern University and a bachelors degree in Accounting. I have worked in the investment arena for over 10 years starting as an analyst and working my way up to a management role. Dividend investing is a personal hobby and I look forward to sharing my thought ...

Core Viewpoint - Paychex's shares experienced a decline following the release of its fiscal first-quarter results, primarily due to revenue meeting expectations and a steady revenue outlook despite an improved earnings forecast [1][3][4] Financial Performance - Total revenue increased by 17% year over year to approximately $1.54 billion, aligning with Wall Street consensus [3] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.22, slightly surpassing consensus forecasts [3] Guidance and Market Reaction - Management raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS growth outlook to a range of 9% to 11%, up from 8.5% to 10.5%, while maintaining the revenue growth range at 16.5% to 18.5% [4] - The combination of improved EPS guidance but unchanged revenue outlook may have contributed to the stock's sell-off [4] Valuation and Market Position - Paychex trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple in the mid-20s, which is considered fair for a stable, cash-generative payroll and HR platform [5] - The business model remains attractive due to sticky clients, recurring revenue, and pricing power related to compliance complexity [6] Dividend Yield - Shareholders currently benefit from a dividend yield of approximately 3.4% [8]

Core Insights - Job growth among U.S. small businesses with fewer than 50 employees remains largely unchanged over the last year [1] - The Small Business Jobs Index, a key component of the Paychex report, has fluctuated just over a half percentage point over the last 12 months [1] - Hourly earnings are experiencing growth [1]

Core Insights - Paychex reported revenue of $1.54 billion for the quarter ended August 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 16.8% and a slight revenue surprise of +0.22% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.22, up from $1.16 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of +0.83% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.21 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Management Solutions revenue was $1.16 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.17 billion from six analysts, but showed a year-over-year increase of +21% [4] - Interest on funds held for clients generated $47.6 million, exceeding the estimated $43.75 million, with a year-over-year change of +26.9% [4] - Total service revenue reached $1.49 billion, slightly below the $1.5 billion estimate, marking a +16.5% increase year-over-year [4] - PEO and Insurance Services revenue was $329.1 million, compared to the average estimate of $333.29 million, reflecting a +3.1% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Paychex shares have returned -7.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.2% change, indicating potential underperformance in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Paychex reported quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21 per share, and showing an increase from $1.16 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +0.83% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.54 billion for the quarter ended August 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.22% and up from $1.32 billion year-over-year [2] - Paychex has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters [2] Earnings Performance - The earnings surprise for the previous quarter was +0.85%, with actual earnings of $1.19 per share compared to an expected $1.18 [1] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.26, with projected revenues of $1.57 billion, and for the current fiscal year, the EPS estimate is $5.45 on revenues of $6.54 billion [7] Stock Performance and Outlook - Paychex shares have declined approximately 8.3% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 13.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future due to unfavorable estimate revisions prior to the earnings release [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, to which Paychex belongs, is currently ranked in the top 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable environment for stocks within this sector [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Core Viewpoint - Paychex, Inc. is a leading provider of human capital management solutions, focusing on small and medium-sized businesses, with a competitive landscape that includes major players like ADP [1] Group 1: Price Target and Analyst Sentiment - The consensus price target for Paychex has decreased from $150.86 to $140, indicating a cautious outlook from analysts [2][6] - Citigroup analyst Peter Christiansen has set a higher price target of $145, reflecting some optimism ahead of the earnings report [2][6] Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Paychex is expected to report a 16.6% year-over-year revenue increase in its upcoming first-quarter earnings, driven by strong performance across its segments and contributions from Paycor [3][6] - Some analysts, including CNBC's Jim Cramer, suggest that Paychex may lack the ideal factors for an earnings beat [3] Group 3: Employment Trends - The Paychex Small Business Employment Watch indicates stable job growth among U.S. small businesses, with a slight increase in the Small Business Jobs Index [4][6] - Despite stable job growth, hourly earnings for small business workers have remained below expectations, reflecting broader economic conditions [4][6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Market Indicators - Since the last earnings report, Paychex's stock has increased by 3.8%, with a positive outlook supported by Citigroup's price target of $145 [5][6] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming earnings release and other economic indicators, such as the nonfarm payroll report, to gauge future performance [5]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones falling more than 100 points, down 0.26% to 46,195.25, NASDAQ down 0.21% to 22,544.07, and S&P 500 down 0.17% to 6,649.65 [1] - Health care shares increased by 0.8%, while energy stocks decreased by 1.7% [1] Company Performance - Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX) stock fell around 4% after reporting fiscal Q1 2026 results, with sales growth of 17% year-over-year to $1.540 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.538 billion [2] - Adjusted EPS of $1.22 beat the consensus estimate of $1.21, and the company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.43-$5.53, compared to the analyst consensus of $5.45 [2] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell by 1.8% to $62.33, while gold prices rose by 0.5% to $3,875.40 [4] - Silver decreased by 0.4% to $46.825, and copper fell by 0.5% to $4.8680 [4] International Markets - European shares were mostly higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 gaining 0.2% and Spain's IBEX 35 Index rising 0.8% [5] - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.25% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.87% [6] Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed's general business activity index fell 12 points to -5.6 in September [7] - U.S. job openings rose by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August [10] - The Chicago Business Barometer declined to 40.6 in September from 41.5 in the previous month, below market expectations of 43 [10] - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased by 1.8% year-over-year in July, while the FHFA house price index declined by 0.1% from the previous month [10] Stock Movements - Zhengye Biotechnology Holding Limited (NASDAQ: ZYBT) shares surged 70% to $3.72, while Beneficient (NASDAQ: BENF) shares rose 62% to $0.5898 after reporting fourth-quarter results [8] - Sunrise New Energy Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: EPOW) shares increased by 52% to $1.37 following a patent grant [8] - Erayak Power Solution Group Inc. (NASDAQ: RAYA) shares dropped 45% to $4.6888, and NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: NBY) fell 13% to $1.35 [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a robust 17% revenue growth, reaching $1.5 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [4][14] - Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 5% to $1.22, while diluted EPS decreased by 10% to $1.06 [14][15] - Total expenses rose by 29% to $998 million, primarily due to the Paycor acquisition [15] - Cash flow from operations was $718 million, with a return on equity of 40% [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Management Solutions revenue increased by 21% to $1.2 billion, driven by the Paycor acquisition and higher revenue per client [14] - PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue grew by 3% to $329 million, supported by an increase in average PEO worksite employees [14] - Interest on funds held for clients surged by 27% to $48 million due to the inclusion of Paycor balances [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The small business employment environment remains stable, with no signs of recession and moderate wage inflation [11][12] - The company noted a strong demand for its PEO services, with mid-single-digit worksite employee growth [11][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The integration of Paycor is progressing well, with targeted revenue synergies and cost synergies expected to exceed initial estimates [4][5] - The company is focusing on cross-selling opportunities, particularly in retirement, ASO, and PEO solutions to Paycor's client base [5][6] - New product offerings, such as BillPay, are aimed at enhancing service delivery and client experience [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the macroeconomic environment, citing renewed business confidence due to clarity on tariffs, taxes, and inflation [11][12] - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook of 16.5% to 18.5%, with adjusted diluted EPS growth now expected to be between 9% and 11% [16][17] Other Important Information - The company has launched several AI-driven initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and client support [9][10] - Paychex was recognized by Newsweek as one of America's greatest companies and most admired workplaces, highlighting the importance of its workforce [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand environment and employer size segments - Management noted that demand remains consistent, with solid activity across all segments, particularly in the micro segment [20][21] Question: Paycor's recurring revenue growth - Management confirmed that recurring revenue for Paycor is expected to grow in double digits for the full year, despite some headwinds in Q1 [22] Question: PEO environment characterization - Management indicated that the PEO continues to perform well, with record retention and strong demand, despite some competitive challenges in specific markets [25][26] Question: Direct expenses and SG&A comparison - Management highlighted that direct expenses showed strong leverage, while SG&A expenses were impacted by the Paycor acquisition [31][32] Question: Integration-related disruptions affecting Paycor's growth - Management clarified that Q1 performance was in line with expectations, and integration challenges were being managed effectively [36][38] Question: Retention rates and bankruptcy impacts - Management reported strong retention rates, with concentrated losses in small businesses due to bankruptcies, but overall retention remains robust [50][51] Question: PEO market competitiveness - Management described the competitive environment as stable, with a focus on delivering value rather than engaging in aggressive pricing strategies [59][60] Question: Bill.com partnership and customer profile - Management expressed excitement about the Bill.com partnership, aimed at enhancing payment capabilities for small businesses [65][66] Question: AI integration and productivity improvements - Management discussed ongoing AI initiatives to improve productivity and client service, emphasizing the potential for significant value creation [72][73] Question: Cost synergies and future milestones - Management indicated that most cost synergy actions are complete, with additional opportunities in procurement and operational efficiencies [88][89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue increased by 17% year-over-year to $1.5 billion [14] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 5% to $1.22, while diluted EPS decreased by 10% to $1.06 [15] - Total expenses rose by 29% to $998 million, primarily due to the Paycor acquisition [15] - Cash flow from operations was $718 million for the first quarter [15] - The company returned $549 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Management Solutions revenue increased by 21% to $1.2 billion, driven by the addition of Paycor and higher revenue per client [14] - PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue grew by 3% to $329 million, supported by an increase in average PEO worksite employees [14] - Interest on funds held for clients rose by 27% to $48 million due to the inclusion of Paycor balances [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The PEO business experienced mid-single-digit worksite employee growth, with strong demand and retention performance [11] - The small business employment environment remains stable, with no signs of recession and moderating wage inflation [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The integration of Paycor is on track, with targeted revenue synergies and cost synergies expected to exceed initial estimates [4][5] - The company is focusing on cross-selling opportunities, particularly in retirement, ASO, and PEO solutions to Paycor's client base [5][6] - The Partner Plus program for brokers has seen nearly double enrollment, indicating strong momentum in referral channels [7][8] - New product offerings, such as Bill Pay Powered by BILL, aim to enhance service delivery for small and mid-sized businesses [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the resilience of small businesses and expects renewed business confidence due to clarity on tariffs, taxes, and inflation [11][12] - The company anticipates total revenue growth for fiscal 2026 to be between 16.5% and 18.5%, with Management Solutions expected to grow by 20%-22% [16][17] - Adjusted operating income margin is projected to be approximately 43% [16] Other Important Information - The company has launched AI-driven tools to enhance client experiences and operational efficiency [9][10] - The integration of Paycor is expected to provide additional growth opportunities and improve overall service offerings [4][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand environment and employer size segments - Demand remains consistent with historical trends, with increased activity and solid RPO bookings [20][21] Question: Paycor recurring revenue growth - Recurring revenue growth for Paycor is expected to be double digits for the full year, with Q1 performance in line with expectations [22][23] Question: PEO environment characterization - PEO continues to perform well with mid-single-digit worksite employee growth and record retention [25][26] Question: Direct expenses and SG&A comparison - Direct expenses showed strong leverage, while SG&A expenses were impacted by integration costs [31][32] Question: Paycor integration and recurring revenue - Integration is progressing well, with high retention rates and strong sales performance [38][39] Question: EPS increase drivers - EPS guidance was raised due to strong retention and confidence in achieving cost and revenue synergies [47][48] Question: PEO market competitiveness - The competitive environment remains stable, with a focus on value proposition rather than aggressive pricing [59][60] Question: Bill.com partnership and customer profile - The partnership aims to enhance payment capabilities for small businesses, integrating with existing platforms [65][66] Question: Regulatory environment impact - The company does not expect significant impacts from regulatory changes, with small businesses remaining resilient [82][83]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue increased by 17% year-over-year to $1.5 billion [13] - Management Solutions revenue rose by 21% to $1.2 billion, driven by the addition of Paycor and higher revenue per client [13] - PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue grew by 3% to $329 million, supported by an increase in average PEO worksite employees [13] - Total expenses increased by 29% to $998 million, primarily due to the Paycor acquisition [14] - Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 5% to $1.22, while diluted EPS decreased by 10% to $1.06 [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Management Solutions revenue growth was significantly influenced by Paycor, contributing approximately 17% to the overall growth [13] - PEO business showed mid-single-digit worksite employee growth, with strong demand and record retention [11][25] - Interest on funds held for clients increased by 27% to $48 million due to the inclusion of Paycor balances [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The small business employment environment remains stable, with no signs of recession and moderate wage inflation [11][12] - The demand environment is consistent, with increased activity and solid RPO bookings, particularly in the micro segment [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The integration of Paycor is on track, with targeted revenue synergies and cost synergies expected to reach approximately $90 million [4][14] - The company is focusing on cross-selling opportunities, particularly in retirement, ASO, and PEO solutions to Paycor's client base [5] - New marketing campaigns and partnerships, such as the CPA Partner Pro portal and BillPay powered by Bill.com, are aimed at expanding service offerings [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the macro environment, citing renewed business confidence due to clarity on tariffs, taxes, and inflation [12] - The company expects total revenue growth for fiscal 2026 to be between 16.5% and 18.5%, with adjusted diluted EPS growth now expected to be between 9% and 11% [15][16] - The PEO model is seen as a key growth driver, allowing small businesses to offer competitive benefits [11] Other Important Information - The company has launched AI-driven tools to enhance client experiences and operational efficiency, including generative AI solutions for HR guidance [10][92] - Paychex was recognized by Newsweek as one of America's greatest companies and most admired workplaces, highlighting the importance of company culture [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand environment and employer size segments - Demand remains consistent with historical trends, with increased activity and solid RPO bookings across segments [19] Question: Paycor recurring revenue growth expectations - Recurring revenue for Paycor is expected to grow in double digits for the full year, aligning with expectations [21] Question: PEO environment characterization - The PEO business continues to perform well, with mid-single-digit worksite employee growth and record retention [25][26] Question: Direct expenses and operating expenses outlook - Direct expenses showed strong leverage, with ongoing operating expenses expected to remain consistent with current trends [32] Question: Impact of regulatory environment on business - The small business market remains resilient, with stability in employment and wage inflation below 3% [104]