Core Insights - Progressive reported revenue of $20.33 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, marking a 22.6% increase year-over-year [1] - The company's EPS was $4.08, up from $2.96 in the same quarter last year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.43 by 18.95% [1] - The reported revenue surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.82 billion, resulting in a surprise of 2.55% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - The combined ratio for the company was 87.9%, better than the estimated 89.8% by analysts [4] - Total personal lines policies in force reached 33.81 million, exceeding the average estimate of 30.38 million [4] - Net premiums earned were $19.14 billion, surpassing the estimated $18.66 billion, reflecting a 21.4% increase compared to the previous year [4] Stock Performance - Progressive's shares returned 2.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 1.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3]

Group 1 - Progressive reported quarterly earnings of $4.08 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.43 per share, and up from $2.96 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 18.95% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $20.33 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.55%, and an increase from $16.59 billion year-over-year [2] - Progressive has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, indicating strong performance [2] Group 2 - The stock's immediate price movement will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and future earnings expectations [3][4] - Progressive shares have increased by approximately 2.3% since the beginning of the year, compared to a 3.2% gain for the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $3.58, with expected revenues of $20.36 billion, and for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $14.02 on $87.1 billion in revenues [7] Group 3 - The Zacks Industry Rank places the Insurance - Property and Casualty sector in the bottom 44% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that tracking these revisions can be beneficial for investors [5][6]

Core Insights - Progressive Corporation reported significant growth in net premiums written and earned for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2024, indicating strong business performance [4] - The company experienced a 22% increase in net premiums written for the December quarter compared to the previous year, reaching $5.964 billion, and a 20% increase for the full year, totaling $18.105 billion [4] - Net income for the December quarter rose by 5% to $942 million, while the full year net income increased by 19% to $2.356 billion [4] - The combined ratio improved slightly, indicating better underwriting performance, with a ratio of 84.1 for the December quarter compared to 83.4 in the previous year [4] Personal Lines Performance - Total personal lines policies in force increased by 18% year-over-year, reaching 33,811 thousand [1] - Direct auto policies saw a notable 25% increase, growing from 11,190 thousand to 13,996 thousand [1] - Agency auto policies also grew by 17%, from 8,336 thousand to 9,778 thousand [1] - Special lines and property insurance policies increased by 9% and 14%, respectively, reflecting overall growth in personal lines [1] Commercial Lines Performance - Commercial lines policies in force showed a modest increase of 4%, rising from 1,099 thousand to 1,141 thousand [1] - The overall companywide policies in force increased by 18%, reaching a total of 34,952 thousand [1] Company Overview - Progressive is the second largest personal auto insurer in the United States and a leading provider of commercial auto, motorcycle, and boat insurance [3] - The company was founded in 1937 and has a history of offering innovative tools and services to help customers save time and money [3] - Progressive's shares are publicly traded on the NYSE under the ticker symbol PGR [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024, with results expected to be reported on January 29, 2024 [1] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's fourth-quarter revenues is $19.8 billion, reflecting a 19.5% increase year-over-year [2] - The consensus estimate for earnings is $3.43 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 15.9%, with a 2.7% upward revision in the past 30 days [2][3] Earnings Surprise History - PGR has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 19.85% [3][4] Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat for PGR, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +3.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] Factors Influencing Q4 Results - Revenue growth is expected to be driven by improved premiums, higher net investment income, and increased fees and service revenues [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is $18.7 billion, supported by a strong product portfolio and market presence [7] - Net investment income is projected at $772.6 million, benefiting from a higher invested asset base and improved interest rates [8] Expense Considerations - Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs, and underwriting expenses are anticipated to increase overall expenses, with the loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio estimated at 69.1 [8] - Despite catastrophe losses, prudent underwriting is expected to improve the combined ratio, which is pegged at 89.8 [9] Stock Performance and Valuation - PGR's stock has outperformed the industry, sector, and the Zacks S&P 500 composite index in 2024 [10] - The stock is currently considered expensive, with a price-to-book value of 5.17X compared to the industry's 1.56X [12][14] Investment Thesis - PGR's strategy includes bundling auto with lower-risk properties and focusing on segmentation and prudent pricing to enhance customer retention [15] - Investments in digitalization are expected to support continued growth, with a Growth Score of A [16] Financial Stability - PGR's solid capital position allows it to navigate market volatility and invest in growth opportunities, despite higher leverage compared to industry averages [17] Market Position - PGR is a leading player in the auto insurance market and is committed to enhancing customer experience while managing expenses and expanding margins [18] Investor Sentiment - PGR's strong dividend history, growth prospects, and favorable return on capital contribute to positive investor sentiment, although new investors may consider waiting for a better entry point due to premium valuation [19]

Group 1 - Significant improvements in private-passenger auto insurance underwriting results in 2024 have triggered changes in the competitive environment [1] - The competitive landscape is beginning to manifest in the third-largest US state [1] - Longtime rivals The Progressive Corp. (PGR) and Geico Corp. are planning to adapt to these changes [1]

Core Insights - Roamly is expanding its product lineup to include motorcycle and boat insurance, reinforcing its position as a leader in specialty insurance [1][5] - The expansion aligns with Roamly's mission to modernize the insurance experience through partnerships with leading carriers and leveraging its digital-first platform [2][4] - The recreational vehicle market is experiencing significant growth, prompting Roamly to offer customizable policies and competitive rates to meet the evolving needs of consumers [3][8] Company Overview - Roamly is recognized as a global leader in digital insurance technology, providing a platform that enhances the insurance experience for consumers and businesses [7] - The Roamly Enterprise platform offers advanced software solutions for insurance companies, enabling them to develop products, manage policies, and improve the customer experience [4][7] - The company operates in the U.S., Canada, and Europe, collaborating with global insurance partners to redefine the insurance landscape [7] Product Offerings - Roamly's RV insurance is considered the industry benchmark, offering tailored coverage for various usage scenarios [8] - The motorcycle insurance options are designed for riders, providing hassle-free protection for both recreational and daily use [8] - Roamly's boat insurance includes comprehensive coverage for different types of watercraft, addressing risks such as liability and storm damage [8]

Company Performance - Progressive's stock closed at $243.68, reflecting a -0.76% change from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 1% [1] - Over the past month, Progressive's stock has increased by 2.43%, outperforming the Finance sector's loss of 0.44% and the S&P 500's loss of 2.14% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect Progressive to report earnings of $3.44 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 16.22% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is projected at $19.81 billion, representing a 19.44% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Progressive reflect positive sentiment regarding the company's business and profitability [3] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 1.2% in the past month [5] Valuation Metrics - Progressive has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.52, which is higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 11.68 [5] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.64, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.44 [6] Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is part of the Finance sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 34, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Investors might want to bet on Progressive (PGR) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.Since a c ...

Growth stocks are attractive to many investors, as above-average financial growth helps these stocks easily grab the market's attention and produce exceptional returns. But finding a great growth stock is not easy at all.That's because, these stocks usually carry above-average risk and volatility. In fact, betting on a stock for which the growth story is actually over or nearing its end could lead to significant loss.However, the Zacks Growth Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which looks ...

When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Progressive (PGR) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.Progressive currently has an average brokerage recommendation ...