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Post Holdings Foodservice Volumes Rise 4.5%: Sign of More Upside Ahead
ZACKS· 2025-09-08 15:35
Key Takeaways POST's Foodservice sales rose 18.6% to $698.5M in Q3, with volumes up 4.5% excluding acquisitions.Distribution growth in eggs and potatoes played a key role in driving Foodservice momentum.Management sees a normalized $115M quarterly EBITDA run rate after avian influenza pricing subsides.Post Holdings, Inc.’s ((POST) Foodservice division has quietly become one of its most durable engines. In the third quarter of 2025, segment net sales rose 18.6% to $698.5 million, with volumes climbing 4.5% e ...
Court Ruling & Tariff Uncertainty: Time to Bet on POST, TME & KNSA?
ZACKS· 2025-09-02 14:06
Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is expected to remain volatile due to uncertainty following a federal appeals court ruling that a significant portion of President Trump's worldwide tariffs is unlawful [1][7] Investment Strategy - To mitigate risks in the uncertain market, investors are advised to consider low-beta stocks such as Post Holdings, Inc. (POST), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME), and Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) [1][7] Company Insights Post Holdings - Post Holdings is restructuring its portfolio, recently announcing the divestment of its 8th Avenue pasta business for $375 million in cash, while retaining its nut butter, granola, and fruit & nut businesses for better alignment with operations and potential cost synergies [6][7] Tencent Music Entertainment - Tencent Music is poised for growth through its expanding music subscription service, boasting over 124 million paying subscribers and 15 million Super VIP members, alongside a booming advertising business supported by new ad formats and key shopping events [7][8] Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals - Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is a leading player in treating recurrent pericarditis with its drug ARCALYST, which is currently the only treatment option available for this condition [9][7]
Post Holdings to Sell 8th Avenue Pasta Business to Richardson
ZACKS· 2025-09-01 15:36
Key Takeaways Post Holdings will sell 8th Avenue's pasta business to Richardson for $375M in cash and liabilities.POST will retain nut butters, fruit and nut, and granola, aiming for $45-$50M EBITDA in fiscal 2026.Management approved a new $500M buyback plan after cancelling the prior authorization on Aug. 28.Post Holdings, Inc. ((POST) has agreed to divest the pasta business of its recently acquired 8th Avenue Food & Provisions to Richardson (US) Holdings Limited. Valued at $375 million in cash, with Richa ...
Post Holdings Announces Sale of Pasta Business; New Share Repurchase Authorization of $500 Million
Prnewswire· 2025-08-29 13:00
Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. has announced the sale of its pasta business from 8th Avenue Food & Provisions to Richardson for $375 million in cash, along with assuming $80 million in leaseback liabilities, expected to close in the first fiscal quarter of 2026 [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves Richardson paying $375 million in cash and assuming approximately $80 million in leaseback financial liabilities [1] - Post acquired 8th Avenue on July 1, 2025, and will retain its nut butters, fruit and nut products, and granola businesses, which are expected to be integrated into the Post Consumer Brands segment [1] Group 2: Financial Expectations - The retained businesses are projected to contribute approximately $45-50 million in Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 before realizing cost synergies, which are expected to reach an annual run rate of about $15 million by the end of fiscal year 2026 [2] - The synergized acquisition multiple for the remaining business is expected to be below 7 times synergized Adjusted EBITDA, consistent with Post's previous acquisition multiple [2] Group 3: Share Repurchase Authorization - On August 27, 2025, Post's Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization, effective from August 29, 2025 [3] - As of August 27, 2025, Post had repurchased approximately $304.8 million under its previous $500 million authorization, which was canceled effective August 28, 2025 [3] Group 4: Non-GAAP Measures - Post uses non-GAAP measures such as Adjusted EBITDA and synergized acquisition multiple to provide transparency and assist investors in understanding the underlying operating performance [5][6] - Adjusted EBITDA represents earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, while the synergized acquisition multiple is calculated based on the net purchase price divided by post-synergies Adjusted EBITDA [5] Group 5: Company Overview - Post Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company with operations in various food categories, including ready-to-eat cereals, pet food, and refrigerated foods [12] - The company is a leader in the North American branded and private label markets, with notable brands such as Weetabix and Bob Evans Farms [12]
Post Holdings Q3 Review: Attractive Given Large Buybacks
Seeking Alpha· 2025-08-12 16:13
Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: POST) has underperformed in the market over the past year, showing flat trading and missing out on significant market rallies due to weaker-than-expected sales in its cereal division [1] Company Performance - The company's cereal division has reported sales that were weaker than anticipated, contributing to its overall disappointing performance [1] Market Context - Despite the challenges faced by Post Holdings, the broader market has experienced meaningful rallies that the company has not capitalized on [1]
Post Holdings Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates, FY25 Outlook Raised
ZACKS· 2025-08-08 15:26
Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year growth [1][10]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.03, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67, and increased from $1.54 in the same quarter last year [2][10]. - Net sales reached $1,984.3 million, a 1.9% increase year over year, beating the estimate of $1,951 million. This includes $8.4 million from the acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho, L.L.C. [3][10]. - Gross profit was $596.2 million, up 3.3% year over year, with gross margin expanding to 30% from 29.6% [3][10]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased by 3.8% to $312.1 million, representing 15.7% of net sales compared to 16.7% in the prior year [4]. - Operating profit increased by 15.5% to $234.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 13.4% to $397 million from $350.2 million in the previous year [4]. Segment Performance - **Post Consumer Brands**: Reported net sales of $914 million, down 9.3% year over year, missing the estimate of $945 million, primarily due to a 10.3% drop in volumes [5]. - **Weetabix**: Net sales increased by 1.3% to $137.9 million but missed the estimate of $139 million, with a 2.5% decline in volumes [6]. - **Foodservice**: Achieved 18.6% growth in net sales to $698.5 million, exceeding the estimate of $636 million, with volumes growing 4.5% excluding acquisition impacts [7]. - **Refrigerated Retail**: Sales increased by 9.1% to $233.9 million, beating the estimate of $224 million, with a profit surge of 380.4% to $24.5 million [8]. Future Outlook - The company raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1,500-$1,520 million, up from the previous range of $1,460-$1,500 million [10][14]. - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are expected to be between $450 million and $480 million, increased from the previous range of $390-$430 million [15]. Shareholder Actions - Post Holdings repurchased 0.6 million shares for $62.1 million in the third quarter, totaling 3.9 million shares for $434.7 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2025 [12].
Post(POST) - 2025 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2025-08-08 15:20
PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION [Item 1. Financial Statements (Unaudited)](index=4&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements%20(Unaudited)) Presents unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements, including operations, balance sheets, cash flows, and detailed notes [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=4&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) | Financial Metric | Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 (Millions USD) | Three Months Ended June 30, 2024 (Millions USD) | Nine Months Ended June 30, 2025 (Millions USD) | Nine Months Ended June 30, 2024 (Millions USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Sales** | $1,984.3 | $1,947.7 | $5,911.1 | $5,912.6 | | **Gross Profit** | $596.2 | $577.3 | $1,737.3 | $1,729.5 | | **Operating Profit** | $234.6 | $203.2 | $630.9 | $602.6 | | **Net Earnings** | $108.8 | $99.8 | $284.7 | $285.1 | | **Diluted EPS** | $1.79 | $1.53 | $4.60 | $4.36 | [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) | Balance Sheet Item | June 30, 2025 (Millions USD) | September 30, 2024 (Millions USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Current Assets** | $2,642.9 | $2,231.6 | | **Total Assets** | $13,369.6 | $12,854.2 | | **Total Current Liabilities** | $1,018.3 | $944.9 | | **Long-term debt** | $7,346.0 | $6,811.6 | | **Total Liabilities** | $9,362.7 | $8,752.9 | | **Total Shareholders' Equity** | $4,006.9 | $4,101.3 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) | Cash Flow Activity | Nine Months Ended June 30, 2025 (Millions USD) | Nine Months Ended June 30, 2024 (Millions USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities** | $697.0 | $696.3 | | **Net Cash Used in Investing Activities** | ($473.4) | ($538.3) | | **Net Cash Provided by Financing Activities** | $47.3 | $66.7 | | **Net Increase in Cash, Cash Equivalents and Restricted Cash** | $273.1 | $226.6 | [Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=9&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) - On March 3, 2025, the Company acquired Potato Products of Idaho, L.L.C. ("PPI") for **$120.0 million**, with a closing payment of **$129.5 million**, reporting PPI in the Refrigerated Retail and Foodservice segments[31](index=31&type=chunk) - In March 2025, the Company finalized plans to close Post Consumer Brands manufacturing facilities in Sparks, Nevada, and Cobourg, Ontario, by Q1 fiscal 2026, with total expected restructuring charges of **$21.1 million** for these and the Lancaster facility closure[42](index=42&type=chunk)[44](index=44&type=chunk) - On October 9, 2024, the Company issued **$600.0 million** of 6.250% senior notes due 2034, using proceeds to redeem outstanding 5.625% senior notes due 2028 and for general corporate purposes[76](index=76&type=chunk) - Subsequent to quarter end, on July 1, 2025, the Company acquired the remaining **39.5%** equity interest in 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. for a preliminary purchase price of **$798.8 million**, funded by cash on hand and Revolving Credit Facility borrowings[103](index=103&type=chunk) [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=25&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management discusses Q3 and YTD fiscal 2025 financial results, covering sales, profit, market trends, acquisitions, and liquidity [Overview](index=25&type=section&id=Overview) - The company operates in four reportable segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail[109](index=109&type=chunk)[113](index=113&type=chunk) - Key recent acquisitions include: - **PPI (FY25):** Manufacturer of refrigerated and frozen potato products - **8th Avenue (Subsequent to Q3'25):** Manufacturer of pasta, nut butters, and granola - **Perfection Pet Foods (FY24):** Private label pet food manufacturer - **Deeside Cereals (FY24):** Private label cereal manufacturer in the U.K[109](index=109&type=chunk)[110](index=110&type=chunk)[111](index=111&type=chunk) - Market trends impacting results include: - **HPAI outbreaks:** Causing volatility in egg supply and pricing for Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail segments - **Inflationary pressures:** Affecting input costs across all segments, though some pressures have eased[112](index=112&type=chunk)[114](index=114&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=26&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) | Metric | Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 (Millions USD) | Change vs. 2024 | Nine Months Ended June 30, 2025 (Millions USD) | Change vs. 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Sales** | $1,984.3 | +2% | $5,911.1 | 0% | | **Operating Profit** | $234.6 | +15% | $630.9 | +5% | | **Net Earnings** | $108.8 | +9% | $284.7 | 0% | - The **15% increase in Q3 operating profit** was primarily driven by higher segment profit in Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, partially offset by declines in Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix[119](index=119&type=chunk) - Interest expense increased by **12% in Q3** and **10% in the nine-month period**, driven by higher average outstanding debt and a higher weighted-average interest rate[121](index=121&type=chunk)[122](index=122&type=chunk) [Segment Results](index=27&type=section&id=Segment%20Results) | Segment | Q3 2025 Net Sales (Millions USD) | Q3 YoY Change | Q3 2025 Segment Profit (Millions USD) | Q3 YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Post Consumer Brands** | $914.0 | -9% | $120.5 | -6% | | **Weetabix** | $137.9 | +1% | $19.3 | -20% | | **Foodservice** | $698.5 | +19% | $123.9 | +38% | | **Refrigerated Retail** | $233.9 | +9% | $24.5 | +380% | - **Post Consumer Brands:** Sales decline driven by a **15% drop in pet food sales** and a **4% drop in cereal sales** due to lower volumes[132](index=132&type=chunk) - **Foodservice:** Sales growth driven by incremental HPAI pricing and **2% higher volumes** in egg products[139](index=139&type=chunk) - **Refrigerated Retail:** Profit surged **380%** due to higher average net selling prices (including HPAI impact on eggs) and lower manufacturing and freight costs[144](index=144&type=chunk) [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=30&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) - The company believes cash on hand, cash from operations, and credit facilities are sufficient to meet working capital, capital expenditures, and other financing needs for the foreseeable future[150](index=150&type=chunk) - Key financing activities during the first nine months of fiscal 2025 included: - Issued **$600.0 million** of 6.250% senior notes - Redeemed **$464.9 million** of 5.625% senior notes - Borrowed **$400.0 million** under the Revolving Credit Facility (primarily to fund the 8th Avenue acquisition) - Repurchased **3.9 million shares** for **$438.2 million**[149](index=149&type=chunk)[151](index=151&type=chunk) Cash Flow Data (Nine Months Ended June 30) | Cash Flow Data (Nine Months Ended June 30) | 2025 (Millions USD) | 2024 (Millions USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Operating activities** | $697.0 | $696.3 | | **Investing activities** | ($473.4) | ($538.3) | | **Financing activities** | $47.3 | $66.7 | [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=35&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) Details exposure to commodity, foreign currency, and interest rate risks, and derivative strategies for management - The company is exposed to commodity price risk for raw materials, energy, and fuel, using derivatives to manage this exposure; a hypothetical **10% change in prices** would alter the derivative portfolio's fair value by approximately **$1 million**[172](index=172&type=chunk) - Exposure to foreign currency risk, primarily USD-GBP and Euro-GBP, is managed with forward contracts and swaps; a hypothetical **10% change in exchange rates** would change the derivative portfolio's fair value by approximately **$2 million**[173](index=173&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, total debt was **$7.38 billion**, with **$6.98 billion** at a fixed rate (**5.3% weighted-average**) and **$400 million** at a variable rate (**5.9%**); a hypothetical **10% change in interest rates** would change the fair value of fixed-rate debt by approximately **$118 million**[174](index=174&type=chunk)[175](index=175&type=chunk) [Controls and Procedures](index=36&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management concluded disclosure controls were effective, with no material changes to internal controls during the quarter - The CEO and CFO concluded that as of the end of the period, the Company's disclosure controls and procedures were effective to provide reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives[178](index=178&type=chunk) - No significant changes were made to the Company's internal control over financial reporting during the quarter ended June 30, 2025[179](index=179&type=chunk) PART II. OTHER INFORMATION [Legal Proceedings](index=36&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) Management expects no material impact from pending legal proceedings on the company's financial condition or operations - Management does not expect any pending legal proceedings to have a material impact on the company's financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows[90](index=90&type=chunk) [Risk Factors](index=36&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) Highlights new risks from 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. integration, including synergy, operational, and liability challenges - A new risk factor has been added concerning the integration of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. into the Post Consumer Brands business[183](index=183&type=chunk) - Potential integration challenges include the inability to achieve cost savings and synergies, difficulties combining complex business systems, and the risk of unknown liabilities for which the company has limited or no recourse[183](index=183&type=chunk)[184](index=184&type=chunk) [Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=37&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) Details Q3 fiscal 2025 share repurchases under the $500 million authorization, with **$353.2 million** remaining Share Repurchases (Q3 2025) | Period | Shares Purchased | Average Price Paid per Share (USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **April 2025** | 108,927 | $113.51 | | **May 2025** | 65,300 | $111.84 | | **June 2025** | 385,270 | $110.11 | | **Total Q3 2025** | **559,497** | **$110.98** | - As of June 30, 2025, approximately **$353.2 million** remained available for repurchase under the current authorization, which expires on February 10, 2027[185](index=185&type=chunk)[186](index=186&type=chunk) [Other Information](index=37&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information) No director or officer adopted or terminated Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements in Q3 fiscal 2025 - No director or officer adopted or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement during the third quarter of fiscal 2025[187](index=187&type=chunk) [Exhibits](index=38&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits) Lists exhibits filed with Form 10-Q, including the 8th Avenue acquisition agreement, senior note indentures, and certifications
Post(POST) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-08 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q3 were $2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA at $397 million, reflecting a 2% increase in sales driven by avian influenza pricing and volume growth in cold chain businesses, partially offset by lower pet food and cereal volumes [17][19] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the fiscal year was increased to a range of $1.5 billion to $1.52 billion, suggesting Q4 will be approximately flat to Q3 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post Consumer Brands (PCB) net sales decreased by 9%, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 13% [17][18] - Foodservice net sales increased by 19%, with volumes up 7%, driven by avian influenza pricing and improved customer foot traffic [19] - Refrigerated Retail net sales increased by 9%, with volumes up 1%, benefiting from the timing of Easter [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cereal category volumes were down 4.1% year over year, with the branded portfolio declining by 4.9% [12] - Pet volume consumption decreased by 3.7% year over year, while the category remained flat [12] - Weetabix saw a 2.4% increase in consumption volumes, contrasting with a 1.8% decline in the category [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cost optimization and targeted investments to drive volume growth despite a challenging macro environment [15] - The acquisition of Eighth Avenue is expected to create synergies within nut butter and granola, with integration planned for FY 2026 [7] - The company remains open to M&A opportunities while balancing share buybacks, having repurchased 8% of the company fiscal year to date [8][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the overall state of the portfolio, despite challenges from tariffs and regulatory changes [9] - The foodservice business is expected to normalize by the end of Q4, with a projected adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $115 million [14] - Management acknowledged the need for a longer recovery timeline for the Nutrish brand due to larger-than-anticipated volume challenges [12] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a transition in its pet portfolio, with plans to address consumption trends and optimize costs [11] - A severance charge of $5 million was taken to align the workforce with a smaller cereal footprint [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on fiscal 2026 guidance - Management indicated that they are still in the planning process for fiscal 2026 and acknowledged various factors that could impact performance, including foodservice normalization and contributions from Eighth Avenue [25][28] Question: Cereal category performance - Management noted that private label underperformance in the cereal category is somewhat of a mystery, possibly due to pricing dynamics [29][30] Question: Foodservice pricing recovery - Management clarified that pricing increases in foodservice were driven by recovering costs from Q2 and elevated egg markets [34][35] Question: M&A appetite and market challenges - Management expressed a cautious but open-minded approach to M&A opportunities, noting current market uncertainties and low multiples [41][44] Question: Eighth Avenue acquisition impact - Management confirmed no material changes to the expected contribution from Eighth Avenue for the fiscal year and indicated a path to improvement for next year [68] Question: Portfolio adjustments in Pet - Management highlighted opportunities for portfolio changes but emphasized the need to stabilize the Nutrish brand before making significant adjustments [78] Question: Input costs and product reformulations - Management plans to take a pragmatic approach to product reformulations and innovation in response to regulatory changes [61][63]
Post Holdings (POST) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-08-07 23:56
Group 1: Earnings Performance - Post Holdings reported quarterly earnings of $2.03 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67 per share, and up from $1.54 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +21.56% [1] - The company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters [2] - Revenue for the quarter ended June 2025 was $1.98 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.70%, and up from $1.95 billion year-over-year [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Post Holdings shares have declined approximately 10.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 7.9% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.95 on revenues of $2.27 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.73 on revenues of $8.14 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank for Food - Miscellaneous is currently in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5] - The estimate revisions trend for Post Holdings was favorable ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6]
Post(POST) - 2025 Q3 - Quarterly Results
2025-08-07 21:07
Highlights: Exhibit 99.1 *For additional information regarding non-GAAP measures, such as Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted net earnings, Adjusted diluted earnings per common share and segment Adjusted EBITDA, see the related explanations presented under "Use of Non-GAAP Measures" later in this release. Post provides Adjusted EBITDA guidance only on a non-GAAP basis and does not provide a reconciliation of its forward-looking Adjusted EBITDA non-GAAP guidance measure to the most directly comparable GAAP measure due ...