Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings (POST) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, making it a valuable tool for investors [2][3]. - Institutional investors play a role in this relationship, as they adjust their valuations based on earnings estimates, leading to stock price fluctuations [3]. Business Improvement Indicators - The upgrade in ratings and rising earnings estimates suggest an improvement in Post Holdings' underlying business, which could lead to an increase in stock price as investors respond positively [4]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending September 2025, Post Holdings is projected to earn $6.63 per share, consistent with the previous year's figure, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 3.4% over the past three months [7]. Zacks Rank System Overview - The Zacks Rank system categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [6]. - The upgrade of Post Holdings to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [9].

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has raised its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion, reflecting management's confidence in recovering costs related to avian influenza [1][8] - The company expects to recoup $30 million in avian flu-related costs by fiscal year-end, indicating a proactive approach to managing operational challenges [1][8] - Despite ongoing softness in consumer consumption across key categories, the guidance revision highlights POST's reliance on execution levers, price realization, cost discipline, and supply-chain stabilization to support profitability [3][5] Financial Performance - The revised EBITDA guidance indicates internal momentum, particularly in supply-constrained categories like eggs and refrigerated sides, where the company has historically faced restrictions [4] - In comparison to industry peers, many of whom are revising forecasts downward, POST's ability to slightly increase its guidance suggests a differentiated level of execution [5] - The company's shares have lost 5.8% in the past three months, underperforming the industry decline of 5.1% and the broader Consumer Staples sector's decline of 0.4% [6] Market Position - Post Holdings currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.84, which is below the industry average of 15.69 and the sector average of 17.31, positioning the stock at a modest discount relative to peers [10]

Group 1 - The company Post Holdings (NYSE: POST) has shown rapid growth, leading to a bullish outlook on its future prospects [1] - The investment service focuses on cash flow generation and identifies companies with significant value and growth potential in the oil and natural gas sector [1] Group 2 - Subscribers of the investment service benefit from a model account featuring over 50 stocks, detailed cash flow analyses of exploration and production firms, and live discussions about the sector [2] - A promotional offer is available for a two-week free trial, encouraging new users to explore opportunities in the oil and gas industry [3]

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 results with net sales missing estimates but adjusted earnings exceeding expectations, both metrics showing year-over-year declines [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.41, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18, but down from $1.51 in the prior year [2]. - Net sales totaled $1,952.1 million, a 2.3% decrease year over year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,977 million [2]. - Gross profit was $545.8 million, down 5.8% year over year, with gross margin contracting to 28% from 29% [3]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased by 7.8% to $314.8 million, representing 16.1% of net sales compared to 17.1% in the previous year [3]. - Operating profit decreased by 4.2% to $182.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 0.4% to $346.5 million [3]. Segment Performance - **Post Consumer Brands**: Net sales were $987.9 million, down 7.3% year over year, missing estimates. Volumes fell by 5.8%, with cereal volumes down 6.3% [4]. - **Weetabix**: Reported a 4.6% decline in net sales to $131.7 million, missing estimates. Volumes decreased by 7.1% [5]. - **Foodservice**: Achieved 9.6% growth in net sales to $607.9 million, surpassing estimates. Volumes grew by 2.8% [6]. - **Refrigerated Retail**: Sales dipped 6.6% to $224.6 million, missing estimates. Volumes dropped by 4.9% [7]. Other Financial Aspects - Cash and cash equivalents stood at $617.6 million, with long-term debt of $6,944.6 million and total shareholders' equity of $3,841.4 million [8]. - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $191.6 million in the second quarter, totaling 3.3 million shares for $372.7 million in the first half of fiscal 2025 [9][10]. Future Guidance - Post Holdings updated its fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1,430-$1,470 million, up from the previous range of $1,420-$1,460 million [11]. - Expected capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are between $390 million and $430 million, including significant investments in Post Consumer Brands and Foodservice [12].

[PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION.](index=3&type=section&id=PART%20I.%20FINANCIAL%20INFORMATION.) [Item 1. Financial Statements (Unaudited)](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements%20(Unaudited)) This section presents the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements of Post Holdings, Inc. for the periods ended March 31, 2025, including statements of operations, comprehensive income, balance sheets, cash flows, and shareholders' equity, along with accompanying notes detailing accounting policies, recent standards, business combinations, debt, and segment information [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited)](index=3&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations%20(Unaudited)) | Metric | Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | | :----- | :---------------------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | | Net Sales | $1,952.1 | $1,999.0 | $3,926.8 | $3,964.9 | | Gross Profit | $545.8 | $579.6 | $1,141.1 | $1,152.2 | | Operating Profit | $182.2 | $190.1 | $396.3 | $399.4 | | Net Earnings | $62.6 | $97.2 | $175.9 | $185.3 | | Basic EPS | $1.11 | $1.60 | $3.07 | $3.06 | | Diluted EPS | $1.03 | $1.48 | $2.83 | $2.83 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Unaudited)](index=4&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Comprehensive%20Income%20(Unaudited)) | Metric | Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | | :----- | :---------------------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | | Net Earnings Including Noncontrolling Interest | $62.6 | $97.3 | $176.0 | $185.4 | | Total Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) Including Noncontrolling Interest | $50.0 | $(18.3) | $(59.3) | $46.8 | | Total Comprehensive Income | $112.6 | $77.4 | $116.6 | $231.0 | [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (Unaudited)](index=5&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets%20(Unaudited)) | Metric | March 31, 2025 (in millions) | September 30, 2024 (in millions) | | :----- | :--------------------------- | :------------------------------- | | Total Current Assets | $2,167.5 | $2,231.6 | | Total Assets | $12,799.1 | $12,854.2 | | Total Current Liabilities | $1,015.8 | $944.9 | | Total Liabilities | $8,957.7 | $8,752.9 | | Total Shareholders' Equity | $3,841.4 | $4,101.3 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (Unaudited)](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows%20(Unaudited)) | Metric | Six Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | | :----- | :-------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | | Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities | $471.1 | $424.0 | | Net Cash Used in Investing Activities | $(342.2) | $(432.6) | | Net Cash (Used in) Provided by Financing Activities | $(292.7) | $237.1 | | Net (Decrease) Increase in Cash, Cash Equivalents and Restricted Cash | $(165.6) | $230.4 | | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Restricted Cash, End of Period | $625.3 | $347.6 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Shareholders' Equity (Unaudited)](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Shareholders'%20Equity%20(Unaudited)) | Metric | March 31, 2025 (in millions) | March 31, 2024 (in millions) | | :----- | :--------------------------- | :--------------------------- | | Common Stock | $0.9 | $0.9 | | Additional Paid-in Capital | $5,330.4 | $5,240.1 | | Retained Earnings | $1,959.1 | $1,601.8 | | Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss | $(52.9) | $(37.0) | | Treasury Stock, at cost | $(3,406.9) | $(2,773.1) | | Total Shareholders' Equity | $3,841.4 | $3,990.7 | [Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited)](index=8&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements%20(Unaudited)) [NOTE 1 — BASIS OF PRESENTATION](index=8&type=section&id=NOTE%201%20%E2%80%94%20BASIS%20OF%20PRESENTATION) - The unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements are prepared in accordance with GAAP and SEC rules, consistent with the audited consolidated financial statements in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2024[17](index=17&type=chunk) - Interim results include normal recurring adjustments and accruals, but are not necessarily indicative of full fiscal year results[18](index=18&type=chunk) [NOTE 2 — RECENTLY ISSUED ACCOUNTING STANDARDS](index=8&type=section&id=NOTE%202%20%E2%80%94%20RECENTLY%20ISSUED%20ACCOUNTING%20STANDARDS) - The Company is evaluating the impact of **ASU 2024-03** (Expense Disaggregation Disclosures), effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2026[20](index=20&type=chunk) - The Company is evaluating the impact of **ASU 2023-09** (Improvements to Income Tax Disclosures), effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2024[21](index=21&type=chunk) - The Company is evaluating the impact of **ASU 2023-07** (Improvements to Reportable Segment Disclosures), effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2023, requiring retrospective adoption[22](index=22&type=chunk) [NOTE 3 — EQUITY INTERESTS, NONCONTROLLING INTEREST AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS](index=8&type=section&id=NOTE%203%20%E2%80%94%20EQUITY%20INTERESTS%2C%20NONCONTROLLING%20INTEREST%20AND%20RELATED%20PARTY%20TRANSACTIONS) - The Company holds a **60.5% common equity interest in 8th Avenue**, accounted for using the equity method due to substantive participating rights held by third parties preventing a controlling voting interest[23](index=23&type=chunk) - The Company fully consolidates Weetabix East Africa (**50.2% ownership**) due to controlling voting and financial interest, reporting its assets and operations in the Weetabix segment[28](index=28&type=chunk) | Related Party | Transaction Type | Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | | :------------ | :--------------- | :---------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | | 8th Avenue | Net Sales | $2.3 | $4.7 | | 8th Avenue | Purchases & Royalties | $21.9 | $42.2 | | Premier Nutrition (BellRing) | Net Sales of RTD shakes | $19.9 | $24.0 | [NOTE 4 — BUSINESS COMBINATIONS](index=9&type=section&id=NOTE%204%20%E2%80%94%20BUSINESS%20COMBINATIONS) - On March 3, 2025, the Company acquired Potato Products of Idaho, L.L.C. (PPI) for **$120.0 million**, a manufacturer of refrigerated and frozen potato products, reported in the Refrigerated Retail and Foodservice segments[33](index=33&type=chunk)[34](index=34&type=chunk) | PPI Acquisition Impact (Six Months Ended March 31, 2025) | Amount (in millions) | | :------------------------------------------------------- | :------------------- | | Net Sales attributable to PPI | $2.3 | | Operating Loss attributable to PPI | $0.7 | | Goodwill generated | $65.1 | - In fiscal 2024, the Company acquired Perfection Pet Foods, LLC for **$235.0 million** (private label pet food) and Deeside Cereals I Ltd for **£11.3 million** (U.K. private label cereals), recording a **$10.6 million gain on bargain purchase** for Deeside[39](index=39&type=chunk)[40](index=40&type=chunk) [NOTE 5 — RESTRUCTURING](index=11&type=section&id=NOTE%205%20%E2%80%94%20RESTRUCTURING) - In March 2025, the Company finalized plans to close Post Consumer Brands cereal manufacturing facilities in Sparks, Nevada, and Cobourg, Ontario, expected to be completed in **Q1 fiscal 2026**[45](index=45&type=chunk) - The Lancaster, Ohio facility closure was completed in **Q1 fiscal 2025**, incurring **$8.0 million** in total restructuring charges[46](index=46&type=chunk)[47](index=47&type=chunk) | Facility | Total Expected Restructuring Charges (in millions) | Cumulative Charges Incurred to Date (in millions) | Remaining Expected Charges (in millions) | | :------- | :----------------------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------------- | :--------------------------------------- | | Lancaster | $8.0 | $8.0 | $0.0 | | Sparks | $7.3 | $3.9 | $3.4 | | Cobourg | $5.6 | $3.6 | $2.0 | | Total | $20.9 | $15.5 | $5.4 | [NOTE 6 — EARNINGS PER SHARE](index=11&type=section&id=NOTE%206%20%E2%80%94%20EARNINGS%20PER%20SHARE) | Metric | Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 | Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 | Six Months Ended March 31, 2025 | Six Months Ended March 31, 2024 | | :----- | :-------------------------------- | :-------------------------------- | :-------------------------------- | :-------------------------------- | | Basic EPS | $1.11 | $1.60 | $3.07 | $3.06 | | Diluted EPS | $1.03 | $1.48 | $2.83 | $2.83 | | Weighted-Average Shares for Basic EPS (millions) | 56.4 | 60.8 | 57.3 | 60.6 | | Weighted-Average Shares for Diluted EPS (millions) | 63.1 | 67.6 | 64.1 | 67.5 | [NOTE 7 — INVENTORIES](index=12&type=section&id=NOTE%207%20%E2%80%94%20INVENTORIES) | Inventory Type | March 31, 2025 (in millions) | September 30, 2024 (in millions) | | :------------- | :--------------------------- | :------------------------------- | | Raw materials and supplies | $137.3 | $144.4 | | Work in process | $27.8 | $20.8 | | Finished products | $521.3 | $554.7 | | Flocks | $32.2 | $34.3 | | Total Inventories | $718.6 | $754.2 | [NOTE 8 — PROPERTY, NET](index=12&type=section&id=NOTE%208%20%E2%80%94%20PROPERTY%2C%20NET) | Metric | March 31, 2025 (in millions) | September 30, 2024 (in millions) | | :----- | :--------------------------- | :------------------------------- | | Property, at cost | $4,479.2 | $4,336.1 | | Accumulated depreciation | $(2,098.0) | $(2,024.4) | | Property, net | $2,381.2 | $2,311.7 | [NOTE 9 — GOODWILL](index=13&type=section&id=NOTE%209%20%E2%80%94%20GOODWILL) | Segment | Goodwill (net) March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Goodwill (net) September 30, 2024 (in millions) | | :------ | :------------------------------------------ | :---------------------------------------------- | | Post Consumer Brands | $1,694.9 | $1,695.2 | | Weetabix | $906.1 | $937.4 | | Foodservice | $1,389.2 | $1,355.3 | | Refrigerated Retail | $744.0 | $712.8 | | Total Goodwill (net) | $4,734.2 | $4,700.7 | - Goodwill increased by **$65.1 million** from the PPI acquisition, allocated between Foodservice (**$33.9 million**) and Refrigerated Retail (**$31.2 million**)[55](index=55&type=chunk) - Currency translation adjustments led to a **$31.6 million decrease** in goodwill, primarily affecting the Weetabix segment[55](index=55&type=chunk) [NOTE 10 — INTANGIBLE ASSETS, NET](index=13&type=section&id=NOTE%2010%20%E2%80%94%20INTANGIBLE%20ASSETS%2C%20NET) | Intangible Asset Type | Net Amount March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Net Amount September 30, 2024 (in millions) | | :-------------------- | :-------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------------ | | Customer relationships (amortized) | $1,481.4 | $1,549.2 | | Trademarks, brands and licensing agreements (amortized) | $754.1 | $539.9 | | Trademarks and brands (not amortized) | $803.9 | $1,056.9 | | Total Intangible Assets, net | $3,039.4 | $3,146.0 | - During Q1 fiscal 2025, a brand with a carrying value of **$243.9 million** was reclassified from an indefinite-lived to a definite-lived intangible asset and is now amortized over **20 years**[56](index=56&type=chunk) [NOTE 11 — DERIVATIVE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS](index=13&type=section&id=NOTE%2011%20%E2%80%94%20DERIVATIVE%20FINANCIAL%20INSTRUMENTS) - The Company uses derivative financial instruments (futures, options, forwards, swaps) to manage commodity price, interest rate, and foreign currency exchange rate risks, not for speculative purposes[57](index=57&type=chunk) | Derivative Type | Notional Amount March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Notional Amount September 30, 2024 (in millions) | | :-------------- | :------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------- | | Commodity and energy contracts | $129.3 | $111.8 | | FX contracts | $22.0 | $40.5 | | Interest rate swaps | $300.0 | $300.0 | | Derivative Instruments | Statement of Operations Location | Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | | :--------------------- | :------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | | Commodity and energy contracts | Cost of goods sold | $3.8 | $15.8 | $4.6 | $24.9 | | FX contracts | Selling, general and administrative expenses | $0.9 | $0.0 | $(1.4) | $0.0 | | Interest rate swaps | Expense (income) on swaps, net | $5.5 | $(13.3) | $(9.9) | $7.8 | [NOTE 12 — FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS](index=15&type=section&id=NOTE%2012%20%E2%80%94%20FAIR%20VALUE%20MEASUREMENTS) | Category | Total Fair Value March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Total Fair Value September 30, 2024 (in millions) | | :------- | :-------------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------------------ | | Assets (Total) | $63.8 | $57.3 | | Liabilities (Total) | $53.6 | $64.7 | - Deferred compensation investments and equity security investments are measured at fair value using the market approach (**Level 1 inputs**), while derivative assets and liabilities are measured using the income approach (**Level 2 inputs**)[65](index=65&type=chunk)[66](index=66&type=chunk)[67](index=67&type=chunk) - The fair value of the Company's debt (excluding municipal bond) was **$6,885.2 million** as of March 31, 2025, and **$6,880.7 million** as of September 30, 2024[67](index=67&type=chunk) [NOTE 13 — LONG-TERM DEBT](index=16&type=section&id=NOTE%2013%20%E2%80%94%20LONG-TERM%20DEBT) | Debt Instrument | March 31, 2025 (in millions) | September 30, 2024 (in millions) | | :-------------- | :--------------------------- | :------------------------------- | | 2.50% convertible senior notes maturing August 2027 | $575.0 | $575.0 | | 4.50% senior notes maturing September 2031 | $980.6 | $980.6 | | 4.625% senior notes maturing April 2030 | $1,385.4 | $1,385.4 | | 5.50% senior notes maturing December 2029 | $1,235.0 | $1,235.0 | | 5.625% senior notes maturing January 2028 | $0.0 | $464.9 | | 6.25% senior secured notes maturing February 2032 | $1,000.0 | $1,000.0 | | 6.250% senior notes maturing October 2034 | $600.0 | $0.0 | | 6.375% senior notes maturing March 2033 | $1,200.0 | $1,200.0 | | Municipal bond | $3.0 | $4.2 | | Total Long-term debt (net) | $6,944.6 | $6,811.6 | - On October 9, 2024, the Company issued **$600.0 million** of **6.250% senior notes** maturing in October 2034, using proceeds to redeem the remaining **5.625% senior notes** maturing January 2028[78](index=78&type=chunk) - The Revolving Credit Facility was amended on February 20, 2024, increasing the aggregate principal amount to **$1,000.0 million** and extending maturity to **February 20, 2029**. No amounts were outstanding as of March 31, 2025[82](index=82&type=chunk)[84](index=84&type=chunk) [NOTE 14 — COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES](index=19&type=section&id=NOTE%2014%20%E2%80%94%20COMMITMENTS%20AND%20CONTINGENCIES) - Management believes that the ultimate liability from pending legal proceedings, asserted legal claims, and known potential legal claims will not be material to the Company's consolidated financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows[91](index=91&type=chunk) [NOTE 15 — PENSION AND OTHER POSTRETIREMENT BENEFITS](index=20&type=section&id=NOTE%2015%20%E2%80%94%20PENSION%20AND%20OTHER%20POSTRETIREMENT%20BENEFITS) - The Company maintains qualified defined benefit plans in the U.S., U.K., and Canada, primarily for Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix segments, and an unfunded non-qualified SERP for management[92](index=92&type=chunk) | Metric | North America Pension Plans (in millions) | Other International Pension Plans (in millions) | North American Other Postretirement Benefit Plans (in millions) | | :----- | :---------------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------------------------- | | Net periodic benefit cost (income) for 3 months ended March 31, 2025 | $0.1 | $(2.4) | $0.5 | | Net periodic benefit cost (income) for 6 months ended March 31, 2025 | $0.3 | $(4.8) | $1.0 | [NOTE 16 — SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY](index=21&type=section&id=NOTE%2016%20%E2%80%94%20SHAREHOLDERS'%20EQUITY) | Metric | Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 | Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 | Six Months Ended March 31, 2025 | Six Months Ended March 31, 2024 | | :----- | :-------------------------------- | :-------------------------------- | :-------------------------------- | :-------------------------------- | | Shares repurchased (millions) | 1.7 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.5 | | Average price per share | $110.19 | $103.88 | $112.19 | $87.23 | | Total share repurchase costs (in millions) | $193.4 | $8.1 | $375.5 | $44.8 | [NOTE 17 — SEGMENTS](index=21&type=section&id=NOTE%2017%20%E2%80%94%20SEGMENTS) - The Company operates in four reportable segments: Post Consumer Brands (North American RTE cereal, pet food, peanut butter), Weetabix (U.K. RTE cereal, muesli, protein shakes), Foodservice (egg and potato products), and Refrigerated Retail (side dish, egg, cheese, sausage products)[101](index=101&type=chunk) | Segment | Net Sales (3 Months Ended March 31, 2025, in millions) | Net Sales (3 Months Ended March 31, 2024, in millions) | Segment Profit (3 Months Ended March 31, 2025, in millions) | Segment Profit (3 Months Ended March 31, 2024, in millions) | | :------ | :----------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------------------------- | :---------------------------------------------------------- | | Post Consumer Brands | $987.9 | $1,065.5 | $139.6 | $139.7 | | Weetabix | $131.7 | $138.0 | $18.2 | $18.1 | | Foodservice | $607.9 | $554.8 | $61.5 | $64.5 | | Refrigerated Retail | $224.6 | $240.4 | $16.2 | $22.4 | | Total | $1,952.1 | $1,999.0 | $235.5 | $244.7 | | Product Category | Net Sales (3 Months Ended March 31, 2025, in millions) | Net Sales (3 Months Ended March 31, 2024, in millions) | | :--------------- | :----------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------- | | Cereal | $655.9 | $706.6 | | Eggs and egg products | $549.7 | $517.0 | | Pet food | $433.1 | $460.7 | | Side dishes (including potato products) | $170.7 | $184.8 | | Cheese and dairy | $37.0 | $41.4 | | Sausage | $40.0 | $40.1 | | Peanut butter | $20.6 | $27.3 | | Protein-based products | $29.9 | $8.4 | | Other | $15.2 | $12.7 | | Total | $1,952.1 | $1,999.0 | [Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=23&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) This section provides a detailed analysis of Post Holdings, Inc.'s consolidated operating results, financial condition, liquidity, and capital resources for the periods ended March 31, 2025, discussing key factors, market trends, and segment performance [OVERVIEW](index=23&type=section&id=OVERVIEW) - Post Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company with four reportable segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail[106](index=106&type=chunk)[108](index=108&type=chunk) - Recent acquisitions include Potato Products of Idaho (PPI) in **March 2025**, and Perfection Pet Foods and Deeside Cereals in **December 2023**[106](index=106&type=chunk)[107](index=107&type=chunk) - Key market trends impacting the company include HPAI outbreaks affecting egg supply, inflationary pressures on input costs, and shifting consumer preferences towards private label or value products[109](index=109&type=chunk)[110](index=110&type=chunk) [RESULTS OF OPERATIONS](index=24&type=section&id=RESULTS%20OF%20OPERATIONS) | Metric | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Change ($) | Change (%) | | :----- | :------------------------------------------ | :------------------------------------------ | :--------- | :--------- | | Net Sales | $1,952.1 | $1,999.0 | $(46.9) | (2)% | | Operating Profit | $182.2 | $190.1 | $(7.9) | (4)% | | Net Earnings | $62.6 | $97.2 | $(34.6) | (36)% | | Metric | 6 Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | 6 Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Change ($) | Change (%) | | :----- | :------------------------------------------ | :------------------------------------------ | :--------- | :--------- | | Net Sales | $3,926.8 | $3,964.9 | $(38.1) | (1)% | | Operating Profit | $396.3 | $399.4 | $(3.1) | (1)% | | Net Earnings | $175.9 | $185.3 | $(9.4) | (5)% | - Net sales decreased by **2%** for the three months and **1%** for the six months ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to lower sales in Post Consumer Brands, Refrigerated Retail, and Weetabix, partially offset by Foodservice[113](index=113&type=chunk)[114](index=114&type=chunk) - Operating profit decreased by **4%** for the three months and **1%** for the six months ended March 31, 2025, mainly due to lower segment profit in Refrigerated Retail, Foodservice, and Post Consumer Brands, and higher general corporate expenses[115](index=115&type=chunk)[116](index=116&type=chunk) - Interest expense, net, increased by **9%** and **8%** for the three and six months, respectively, driven by higher average outstanding debt and a higher weighted-average interest rate (**5.3%** for both periods in 2025 vs. **5.1%** in 2024)[117](index=117&type=chunk)[118](index=118&type=chunk) - The Company recognized a net loss of **$5.8 million** on extinguishment of debt for the six months ended March 31, 2025, primarily from the redemption of **5.625% senior notes**[120](index=120&type=chunk) - Expense (income) on swaps, net, was **$5.5 million expense** for the three months and **$(9.9) million income** for the six months ended March 31, 2025, related to mark-to-market adjustments and settlements on interest rate swaps[123](index=123&type=chunk) - The effective income tax rate was **24.3%** and **22.9%** for the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, respectively[125](index=125&type=chunk) [SEGMENT RESULTS](index=25&type=section&id=SEGMENT%20RESULTS) [Post Consumer Brands](index=25&type=section&id=Post%20Consumer%20Brands) | Metric | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Change ($) | Change (%) | | :----- | :------------------------------------------ | :------------------------------------------ | :--------- | :--------- | | Net Sales | $987.9 | $1,065.5 | $(77.6) | (7)% | | Segment Profit | $139.6 | $139.7 | $(0.1) | (0)% | - Net sales decreased **7%** for the three months and **5%** for the six months, driven by lower cereal (category declines) and pet food volumes (reductions in private label/co-manufactured products, distribution losses)[128](index=128&type=chunk)[129](index=129&type=chunk)[130](index=130&type=chunk) - Segment profit for the three months was **flat**, with lower net sales offset by **$11.8 million lower raw material costs** and **$11.5 million lower advertising and consumer spending**[131](index=131&type=chunk) - Segment profit for the six months decreased **1%**, impacted by lower net sales and **$6.2 million increased integration costs**, partially offset by **$27.3 million lower raw material costs**, **$11.9 million lower advertising**, and **$7.4 million lower manufacturing costs**[132](index=132&type=chunk) [Weetabix](index=26&type=section&id=Weetabix) | Metric | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Change ($) | Change (%) | | :----- | :------------------------------------------ | :------------------------------------------ | :--------- | :--------- | | Net Sales | $131.7 | $138.0 | $(6.3) | (5)% | | Segment Profit | $18.2 | $18.1 | $0.1 | 1% | - Net sales decreased **5%** for the three months and **3%** for the six months, primarily due to **7% lower volumes** from strategic product exits, reduced promotional activity, and cereal category declines, alongside an unfavorable foreign currency impact[133](index=133&type=chunk)[134](index=134&type=chunk) - Segment profit for the three months increased **1%**, driven by higher average net selling prices and **$0.7 million lower freight costs**, partially offset by **$1.8 million higher raw material costs**[135](index=135&type=chunk) - Segment profit for the six months decreased **13%**, mainly due to **$3.9 million higher raw material costs**, partially offset by higher average net selling prices[136](index=136&type=chunk) [Foodservice](index=26&type=section&id=Foodservice) | Metric | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Change ($) | Change (%) | | :----- | :------------------------------------------ | :------------------------------------------ | :--------- | :--------- | | Net Sales | $607.9 | $554.8 | $53.1 | 10% | | Segment Profit | $61.5 | $64.5 | $(3.0) | (5)% | - Net sales increased **10%** for the three months and **9%** for the six months, primarily driven by higher egg product sales due to incremental HPAI pricing and ready-to-drink shake sales[137](index=137&type=chunk)[138](index=138&type=chunk)[139](index=139&type=chunk) - Segment profit for the three months decreased **5%**, driven by **$56.5 million higher raw material costs**, partially offset by higher net sales and **$5.1 million lower manufacturing costs**[139](index=139&type=chunk) - Segment profit for the six months increased **5%**, driven by higher net sales and **$4.5 million lower freight costs**, partially offset by **$81.4 million higher raw material costs**[140](index=140&type=chunk) [Refrigerated Retail](index=27&type=section&id=Refrigerated%20Retail) | Metric | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Change ($) | Change (%) | | :----- | :------------------------------------------ | :------------------------------------------ | :--------- | :--------- | | Net Sales | $224.6 | $240.4 | $(15.8) | (7)% | | Segment Profit | $16.2 | $22.4 | $(6.2) | (28)% | - Net sales decreased **7%** for the three months and **6%** for the six months, primarily due to lower volumes in side dishes (holiday demand shift, price elasticities) and cheese/dairy (distribution losses)[141](index=141&type=chunk)[142](index=142&type=chunk) - Segment profit for the three months decreased **28%**, driven by **$8.2 million higher raw material costs** and lower net sales, partially offset by **$2.2 million lower manufacturing costs**[143](index=143&type=chunk) - Segment profit for the six months decreased **30%**, driven by **$14.3 million higher raw material costs**, **$3.1 million higher manufacturing costs**, and lower net sales, partially offset by **$2.1 million lower freight costs**[144](index=144&type=chunk) [General Corporate Expenses and Other](index=27&type=section&id=General%20Corporate%20Expenses%20and%20Other) | Metric | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | 3 Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | Change ($) | Change (%) | | :----- | :------------------------------------------ | :------------------------------------------ | :--------- | :--------- | | General corporate expenses and other | $60.6 | $51.8 | $8.8 | 17% | - General corporate expenses increased **17%** for the three months, primarily due to **$10.1 million increased net losses** from mark-to-market adjustments on equity security investments[145](index=145&type=chunk) - General corporate expenses decreased **6%** for the six months, driven by **$12.7 million increased net gains** from mark-to-market adjustments on economic hedges, partially offset by **$7.8 million increased net losses** on equity security investments[146](index=146&type=chunk) [LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES](index=28&type=section&id=LIQUIDITY%20AND%20CAPITAL%20RESOURCES) - The Company expects positive cash flows from operations, cash on hand, and credit facilities to be sufficient for working capital, purchase commitments, interest payments, R&D, capital expenditures, and other financing needs for the foreseeable future[148](index=148&type=chunk) - During the six months ended March 31, 2025, the Company issued **$600.0 million of 6.250% senior notes**, redeemed **$464.9 million of 5.625% senior notes**, and repurchased **3.3 million shares of common stock** for **$375.5 million**[152](index=152&type=chunk)[158](index=158&type=chunk) | Cash Flow Activity | Six Months Ended March 31, 2025 (in millions) | Six Months Ended March 31, 2024 (in millions) | | :----------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------- | | Operating activities | $471.1 | $424.0 | | Investing activities | $(342.2) | $(432.6) | | Financing activities | $(292.7) | $237.1 | - Cash provided by operating activities increased by **$47.1 million**, driven by timing of trade payables, larger inventory cash inflows, and lower tax payments, partially offset by higher interest payments and decreased net cash receipts on swaps/FX contracts[155](index=155&type=chunk) - Cash used in investing activities was **$342.2 million**, primarily for the PPI acquisition (**$124.3 million**) and capital expenditures (**$229.5 million**)[156](index=156&type=chunk) - Cash used in financing activities was **$292.7 million**, reflecting debt issuance, redemptions, and significant share repurchases[158](index=158&type=chunk) - The Company was in compliance with its secured net leverage ratio covenant (not to exceed **4.25:1.00**) as of March 31, 2025, and does not anticipate non-compliance[160](index=160&type=chunk)[161](index=161&type=chunk) [CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES](index=30&type=section&id=CRITICAL%20ACCOUNTING%20ESTIMATES) - There have been no significant changes to the Company's critical accounting estimates since September 30, 2024, as detailed in its Annual Report on Form 10-K[164](index=164&type=chunk) [RECENTLY ISSUED ACCOUNTING STANDARDS](index=30&type=section&id=RECENTLY%20ISSUED%20ACCOUNTING%20STANDARDS) - Refer to Note 2 within 'Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements' for a discussion regarding recently issued accounting standards[166](index=166&type=chunk) [CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS](index=30&type=section&id=CAUTIONARY%20STATEMENT%20ON%20FORWARD-LOOKING%20STATEMENTS) - This report contains forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations[168](index=168&type=chunk)[169](index=169&type=chunk) - Key risks include supply chain disruptions, economic conditions, input cost volatility, competition, labor issues, high leverage, cybersecurity incidents, product liability claims, and integration of acquisitions[168](index=168&type=chunk)[172](index=172&type=chunk) - The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements[169](index=169&type=chunk) [Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=31&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) This section details the Company's exposure to market risks, including commodity price, foreign currency, and interest rate risks, and outlines the derivative financial instruments used to manage these exposures [Commodity Price Risk](index=31&type=section&id=Commodity%20Price%20Risk) - The Company is exposed to commodity price risks for raw materials, ingredients, packaging, energy, and fuel, using futures and options to manage these exposures[170](index=170&type=chunk) - A hypothetical **10% adverse change** in principal hedged commodities (natural gas, heating oil, soybean oil, corn, wheat, dairy) would decrease the fair value of the derivatives portfolio by approximately **$1 million** as of March 31, 2025, and September 30, 2024[170](index=170&type=chunk) [Foreign Currency Risk](index=31&type=section&id=Foreign%20Currency%20Risk) - The Company is exposed to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations through its foreign subsidiaries, mitigating this risk with foreign currency exchange contracts (options, forwards, currency swaps)[171](index=171&type=chunk) - A hypothetical **10% change** in USD-GBP and Euro-GBP exchange rates would change the fair value of the foreign currency derivatives portfolio by approximately **$2 million** as of March 31, 2025, and **$4 million** as of September 30, 2024[171](index=171&type=chunk) [Interest Rate Risk](index=32&type=section&id=Interest%20Rate%20Risk) - As of March 31, 2025, the Company had **$6,979.0 million** in outstanding principal value of indebtedness, with **$6,976.0 million** bearing interest at a weighted-average fixed rate of **5.3%**[173](index=173&type=chunk) - A hypothetical **10% decrease** in interest rates would increase the fair value of fixed rate debt by approximately **$135 million** as of March 31, 2025[174](index=174&type=chunk) - The Company had interest rate swaps with a notional value of **$300.0 million** as of March 31, 2025, where a hypothetical **10% increase** in interest rates would decrease their fair value by approximately **$9 million**[175](index=175&type=chunk) [Item 4. Controls and Procedures](index=32&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) This section details the management's evaluation of the Company's disclosure controls and procedures and reports on any changes in internal control over financial reporting [Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures](index=32&type=section&id=Evaluation%20of%20Disclosure%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) - Management, including the CEO and CFO, concluded that the Company's disclosure controls and procedures were **effective** as of March 31, 2025, providing reasonable assurance of achieving control objectives[176](index=176&type=chunk) [Changes in Internal Control Over Financial Reporting](index=32&type=section&id=Changes%20in%20Internal%20Control%20Over%20Financial%20Reporting) - There were no significant changes in the Company's internal control over financial reporting during the quarter ended March 31, 2025, that materially affected or are reasonably likely to materially affect it[177](index=177&type=chunk) [PART II. OTHER INFORMATION.](index=32&type=section&id=PART%20II.%20OTHER%20INFORMATION.) [Item 1. Legal Proceedings](index=32&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) This section refers to the legal proceedings information detailed in Note 14 of the financial statements and confirms no material environmental proceedings requiring disclosure - Information regarding legal proceedings is incorporated by reference from Note 14 of the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements[178](index=178&type=chunk) - There are no environmental proceedings to disclose for the period, based on a **$1.0 million monetary sanctions threshold**[179](index=179&type=chunk) [Item 1A. Risk Factors](index=33&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) This section states that there have been no material changes to the risk factors previously disclosed in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2024 - No material changes to risk factors have occurred since the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2024[180](index=180&type=chunk) - Additional risks not currently known or deemed immaterial may also impact the business[180](index=180&type=chunk) [Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=33&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) This section provides details on the Company's common stock repurchases during the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2025, and outlines the current share repurchase authorization | Period | Total Number of Shares Purchased | Average Price Paid per Share | Approximate Dollar Value of Shares that May Yet be Purchased Under the Plans or Programs | | :----- | :------------------------------- | :--------------------------- | :--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | January 1, 2025 - January 31, 2025 | 985,152 | $108.47 | $200,228,325 | | February 1, 2025 - February 28, 2025 | 565,660 | $112.21 | $436,529,287 | | March 1, 2025 - March 31, 2025 | 187,478 | $113.17 | $415,311,955 | | Total (Quarter) | 1,738,290 | $110.19 | $415,311,955 (remaining) | - On February 4, 2025, the Board cancelled a prior **$500.0 million repurchase authorization** and approved a new **$500.0 million authorization**, effective February 10, 2025, expiring **February 10, 2027**[182](index=182&type=chunk) [Item 5. Other Information](index=33&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information) This section confirms that no director or officer adopted or terminated Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements during the quarter ended March 31, 2025 - No director or officer adopted or terminated Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements during the three months ended March 31, 2025[183](index=183&type=chunk) [Item 6. Exhibits](index=34&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits) This section lists all exhibits filed with the Form 10-Q, including organizational documents, indentures for various senior notes, director restricted stock unit agreements, and certifications - Exhibits include Restatement of Articles of Incorporation, Amended and Restated Bylaws, and Indentures for various senior notes (2029, 2030, 2031, 2027 Convertible, 2032 Secured, 2033, 2034 Notes)[185](index=185&type=chunk) - Also included are forms of Non-Employee Director Restricted Stock Unit Agreements and certifications by Robert V. Vitale (CEO) and Matthew J. Mainer (CFO) under Sarbanes-Oxley Act sections 302 and 906[185](index=185&type=chunk) [SIGNATURES](index=36&type=section&id=SIGNATURES) - The report was signed on **May 9, 2025**, by Matthew J. Mainer, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer (Principal Financial Officer) of Post Holdings, Inc.[189](index=189&type=chunk)

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q2 were $2 billion, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower overall volumes in retail businesses, partially offset by elevated avian influenza-driven pricing in foodservice and volume growth in shakes [14][15] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $347 million, with a decrease in foodservice adjusted EBITDA of approximately $20 million compared to Q1, attributed to $30 million in costs ahead of pricing impacts [9][14] - Year-to-date cash flow was $240 million, with free cash flow of approximately $70 million net of CapEx spend, reflecting a decrease sequentially from the previous quarter [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post Consumer Brands (PCB) net sales decreased by 7%, driven by lower volumes in both cereal and pet segments, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5% [14][15] - Foodservice net sales increased by 10%, with volumes up by 3%, reflecting elevated pricing and higher shake sales, although excluding shakes, volumes were down by 1% [15][16] - Refrigerated retail net sales decreased by 7%, with volumes down by 5%, impacted by the timing of Easter and avian influenza [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cereal category experienced a decline of 3.7%, with the branded portfolio slightly behind at a decline of 4.5%, leading to pressures on manufacturing utilization and cost structure [10] - The pet segment faced a decline in volume consumption of 4.5%, while the overall category remained flat, indicating challenges in demand for specific brands [10][15] - Weetabix saw a 5% decrease in net sales, with volumes down by 7%, affected by lower promotions and pricing decisions [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on managing costs and optimizing its asset base, including the closure of two plants by the end of the calendar year to address manufacturing pressures [10][15] - The strategy includes a focus on driving volumes in the sides business and integrating the newly acquired PPI business, with expectations for improved margins in the latter half of the year [12][57] - The company is leaning into share repurchases, having bought approximately 6% of its shares since the beginning of the fiscal year, indicating a strong position for opportunistic capital allocation [13][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer sentiment is weak, and there is a need to focus on demand drivers and flawless supply chain execution [6][8] - The uncertainty in capital markets complicates M&A valuations, leading to a focus on smaller tactical transactions [12] - Management expects to recover unfavorable costs seen in Q2 during the remainder of fiscal 2025, assuming no additional outbreaks of avian influenza [9][19] Other Important Information - The company has increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion for the fiscal year [19] - The recent tariff actions and volatility in capital markets have slowed the M&A pipeline, with a focus on transactions with clear synergies [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term run rate expectations for Foodservice unit - Management indicated that the long-term run rate is likely higher than previously thought, but a couple of quarters of normalcy are needed to make a better assessment [21][23] Question: Maintaining profitability in PCB despite volume declines - Management aims to manage costs effectively to maintain profitability, with expectations of a gradual improvement in cereal category declines [24][26] Question: Setup for PCB in fiscal 2026 - Management believes that the transition year for Pet will yield benefits next year, potentially offsetting headwinds in the cereal business [30][32] Question: Key drivers of price mix downturn in PCB - Management noted that the category is expected to remain pressured, particularly in cereal, while larger pack sizes are affecting mix negatively [36][37] Question: Options for Eighth Avenue business - Management expressed confidence in the business operations and indicated that a resolution regarding near-term maturities will be forthcoming [39] Question: Savings from cereal plant closures - Management expects about $20 million in annualized benefits from the plant closures, with potential offsets depending on category performance [42][43] Question: Impact of cautious consumers on pet business - Management noted that a shift towards value brands could favor their offerings, although market share dynamics differ from cereal [46][47] Question: Expectations for Refrigerated Retail and distribution expansion - Management highlighted improved capacity post-PPI acquisition and plans for innovation and expansion in the category [54][57] Question: Sequential improvement in category trends - Management observed slight improvements in cereal category performance but cautioned against claiming victory too soon [74] Question: RTD shake manufacturing ramp progress - Management reported sequential improvements in shake production, although it remains a minor contributor to profit at current levels [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q2 were $2 billion, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower overall volumes in retail businesses, partially offset by elevated avian influenza-driven pricing in foodservice and volume growth in shakes [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $347 million, reflecting a decrease in foodservice adjusted EBITDA by approximately $20 million compared to Q1 due to avian influenza costs [8][13] - Year-to-date cash flow was $240 million, with free cash flow of approximately $70 million net of CapEx spend, indicating a decrease sequentially from the previous quarter [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post Consumer Brands (PCB) net sales decreased by 7%, driven by lower volumes in both cereal and pet segments, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5% [13][14] - Foodservice net sales increased by 10%, with volumes up by 3%, reflecting elevated pricing and higher shake sales, although excluding shakes, volumes were down by 1% [14][15] - Refrigerated retail net sales decreased by 7%, with volumes down by 5%, impacted by the timing of Easter and avian influenza [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cereal category experienced a decline of 3.7%, with the branded portfolio slightly behind at a decline of 4.5%, leading to pressures on manufacturing utilization and cost structure [9][13] - The pet segment faced a decline in volume consumption of 4.5%, while the overall category remained flat, indicating challenges in demand and distribution [9][14] - Weetabix saw a 5% decrease in net sales, with volumes down by 7%, affected by lower promotions and pricing decisions [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on managing costs and optimizing its asset base to maintain profitability in the face of declining volumes in the cereal category [22][30] - The recent acquisition of PPI is expected to provide new capacity and opportunities for innovation, allowing the company to explore private label and value chain strategies [51][62] - The company plans to continue share repurchases and remains well-positioned for opportunistic capital allocation despite the current market uncertainties [12][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer sentiment is weak, and there is a need to focus on demand drivers and supply chain execution [6][8] - The company expects to recover unfavorable costs ahead of pricing impacts seen in Q2 during the remainder of fiscal 2025, assuming no additional avian influenza outbreaks [8][18] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by avian influenza and the need for a couple of quarters of normalcy to better assess long-term run rates for the foodservice unit [21] Other Important Information - The company has closed two plants by the end of the calendar year to address manufacturing utilization issues [9] - The company has repurchased approximately 6% of its shares since the beginning of the fiscal year, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [12][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term run rate expectations for the Foodservice unit - Management indicated that the long-term run rate is likely higher than previously thought, but a couple of quarters of normalcy are needed to make a better assessment [21] Question: Maintaining profitability in PCB despite volume declines - Management aims to manage costs effectively to maintain profitability, with expectations of a gradual improvement in cereal category declines [22][30] Question: Setup for PCB in fiscal 2026 - Management believes that the transition year for Pet will yield benefits next year, potentially offsetting headwinds in the cereal business [29][30] Question: Key drivers of price mix downturn in PCB - Management noted that the pricing recovery in foodservice will offset some of the pressures in the cereal category for the remainder of the fiscal year [33] Question: Options for Eighth Avenue business - Management expressed confidence in the business operations and indicated that a resolution regarding near-term maturities will be forthcoming [35] Question: Insights from the PPI acquisition - Initial learnings suggest some unexpected synergies and challenges in employee integration, but the acquisition is expected to fit well into the company's network [61][62] Question: Trends in grocery category performance - Management observed a dichotomy in consumer behavior, with premium products performing well while others are seeing reduced demand [67]

Core Insights - Post Holdings reported revenue of $1.95 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, a decrease of 2.4% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.41, down from $1.51 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.98 billion, resulting in a surprise of -1.28%, while the EPS exceeded expectations by 19.49% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.18 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Net Sales for Weetabix were $131.70 million, below the estimated $133.10 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 4.6% [4] - Net Sales for Post Consumer Brands were reported at $987.90 million, compared to the average estimate of $1.02 billion, marking a 7.3% decrease year-over-year [4] - Net Sales for Foodservice reached $607.90 million, surpassing the average estimate of $584.58 million, with a year-over-year increase of 9.6% [4] - Net Sales for Refrigerated Retail were $224.60 million, below the average estimate of $237.73 million, indicating a 6.6% decline year-over-year [4] Adjusted EBITDA Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Post Consumer Brands was $203.80 million, slightly below the average estimate of $204.92 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Weetabix was $30.30 million, exceeding the estimated $27.17 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Foodservice was $96 million, significantly above the average estimate of $75.40 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Corporate/Other was -$18.30 million, better than the average estimate of -$23.60 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Refrigerated Retail was $34.70 million, below the average estimate of $39.89 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Post Holdings have returned -4.2%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of +11.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings reported quarterly earnings of $1.41 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18 per share, but down from $1.51 per share a year ago, indicating a 19.49% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.95 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.28%, and down from $2 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Post Holdings has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times but has only topped revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Post Holdings shares have declined approximately 2.9% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has seen a decline of 4.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.69 on revenues of $1.96 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.40 on revenues of $7.94 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Post Holdings is mixed, which may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, to which Post Holdings belongs, is currently in the top 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

[Consolidated Financial Results](index=1&type=section&id=Second%20Quarter%20Consolidated%20Operating%20Results) Q2 FY2025 saw a 2.3% net sales decrease and 35.6% net earnings decline, while Adjusted EBITDA remained stable Q2 Fiscal 2025 Consolidated Financial Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $1,952.1 | $1,999.0 | -2.3% | | Gross Profit | $545.8 | $579.6 | -5.8% | | Operating Profit | $182.2 | $190.1 | -4.2% | | Net Earnings | $62.6 | $97.2 | -35.6% | | Diluted EPS | $1.03 | $1.48 | -30.4% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $346.5 | $345.2 | +0.4% | Six Months Fiscal 2025 Consolidated Financial Performance (YoY) | Metric | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $3,926.8 | $3,964.9 | -1.0% | | Gross Profit | $1,141.1 | $1,152.2 | -1.0% | | Operating Profit | $396.3 | $399.4 | -0.8% | | Net Earnings | $175.9 | $185.3 | -5.1% | | Diluted EPS | $2.83 | $2.83 | 0.0% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $716.4 | $704.7 | +1.7% | - On March 3, 2025, Post completed its acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho, L.L.C., with its results now included in the Refrigerated Retail and Foodservice segments[3](index=3&type=chunk) [Segment Performance](index=2&type=section&id=SEGMENT%20INFORMATION) Q2 FY2025 segment performance was mixed, with Foodservice sales growth offsetting declines in other segments [Post Consumer Brands](index=2&type=section&id=Post%20Consumer%20Brands) Post Consumer Brands saw Q2 net sales decrease by 7.3% due to volume declines in cereal and pet food, yet Adjusted EBITDA increased by 2.4% Post Consumer Brands Q2 & H1 FY2025 Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $987.9 | $1,065.5 | -7.3% | $1,951.8 | $2,054.1 | -5.0% | | Segment Profit | $139.6 | $139.7 | -0.1% | $270.6 | $272.4 | -0.7% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $203.8 | $199.0 | +2.4% | $408.6 | $388.8 | +5.1% | - The decrease in net sales was primarily driven by a **5.8% decline in volumes**, with cereal volumes down **6.3%** and pet food volumes down **5.4%**[13](index=13&type=chunk) [Weetabix](index=2&type=section&id=Weetabix) Weetabix Q2 net sales decreased by 4.6% due to volume declines and currency headwinds, but Segment Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9.0% Weetabix Q2 & H1 FY2025 Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $131.7 | $138.0 | -4.6% | $259.3 | $267.1 | -2.9% | | Segment Profit | $18.2 | $18.1 | +0.6% | $34.1 | $39.1 | -12.8% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $30.3 | $27.8 | +9.0% | $58.3 | $58.4 | -0.2% | - Volumes decreased **7.1%**, primarily due to the strategic exit of low-performing products, lower promotional activity, and cereal category declines[15](index=15&type=chunk) [Foodservice](index=2&type=section&id=Foodservice) Foodservice Q2 net sales increased by 9.6% driven by shake volumes, but segment profit and Adjusted EBITDA declined by 4.7% and 5.6% respectively Foodservice Q2 & H1 FY2025 Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $607.9 | $554.8 | +9.6% | $1,224.5 | $1,121.9 | +9.1% | | Segment Profit | $61.5 | $64.5 | -4.7% | $147.6 | $140.2 | +5.3% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $96.0 | $101.7 | -5.6% | $212.8 | $207.5 | +2.6% | - Volumes increased **2.8%**, driven by the inclusion of ready-to-drink shakes, which was partially offset by declines in egg and potato volumes[17](index=17&type=chunk) [Refrigerated Retail](index=3&type=section&id=Refrigerated%20Retail) Refrigerated Retail Q2 net sales fell 6.6% and volumes declined 4.9% due to holiday timing shifts, leading to significant profit and Adjusted EBITDA decreases Refrigerated Retail Q2 & H1 FY2025 Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $224.6 | $240.4 | -6.6% | $491.2 | $521.3 | -5.8% | | Segment Profit | $16.2 | $22.4 | -27.7% | $40.4 | $58.0 | -30.3% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $34.7 | $40.5 | -14.3% | $76.3 | $94.1 | -18.9% | Refrigerated Retail Q2 Volume Percentage Change (YoY) | Product | Volume Percentage Change | | :--- | :--- | | All | (4.9%) | | Side dishes | (8.2%) | | Egg | (3.9%) | | Cheese | (15.0%) | | Sausage | (5.1%) | [Other Financial Information](index=3&type=section&id=Interest%2C%20Loss%20%28Gain%29%20on%20Extinguishment%20of%20Debt%2C%20Expense%20%28Income%29%20on%20Swaps%20and%20Income%20Tax) Q2 FY2025 saw increased net interest expense and a swap expense reversal, with an effective tax rate of 24.3% and continued share repurchases - Net interest expense increased in Q2 and H1 2025 due to **higher average outstanding debt** and a **higher weighted-average interest rate**[21](index=21&type=chunk) - The company recorded a net expense on swaps of **$5.5 million** in Q2 2025, compared to a net income of **$13.3 million** in Q2 2024[23](index=23&type=chunk) Share Repurchase Activity | Period | Shares Repurchased (M) | Total Cost (M) | Average Price/Share | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Q2 FY2025 | 1.7 | $191.6 | $110.19 | | H1 FY2025 | 3.3 | $372.7 | $112.19 | | Post-Q2 (thru May 7) | 0.2 | $17.4 | $113.25 | - As of May 7, 2025, Post had **$397.9 million** remaining under its share repurchase authorization[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Fiscal Year 2025 Outlook](index=3&type=section&id=Outlook) Post Holdings raised its FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1,430-$1,470 million, assuming avian influenza cost recovery, with capital expenditures projected at $390-$430 million - Raised fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to **$1,430-$1,470 million** from **$1,420-$1,460 million**[9](index=9&type=chunk)[26](index=26&type=chunk) - Outlook includes key assumptions for the Foodservice segment related to avian influenza: recovery of **~$30 million** in costs incurred in Q2 and no additional outbreaks on controlled farms[27](index=27&type=chunk) - Fiscal year 2025 capital expenditures are expected to range from **$390-$430 million**, with significant investments in Post Consumer Brands (**$100-$110 million**) and Foodservice (**$80-$90 million**)[26](index=26&type=chunk) [Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This section presents the unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations, Balance Sheets, and Cash Flows, detailing the company's financial position and performance - The Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations show detailed financial performance for the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the prior year[41](index=41&type=chunk)[42](index=42&type=chunk) - The Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets present the company's financial position as of March 31, 2025, against September 30, 2024[43](index=43&type=chunk)[44](index=44&type=chunk) - The Selected Condensed Consolidated Cash Flows Information details cash provided by or used in operating, investing, and financing activities for the six months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024[45](index=45&type=chunk)[46](index=46&type=chunk) [Explanation and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures](index=10&type=section&id=EXPLANATION%20AND%20RECONCILIATION%20OF%20NON-GAAP%20MEASURES) This section explains and reconciles non-GAAP measures like Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow, providing transparent insights into underlying business performance - The company uses non-GAAP measures like **Adjusted net earnings**, **Adjusted EBITDA**, and **free cash flow** to supplement GAAP financial measures[29](index=29&type=chunk)[52](index=52&type=chunk) - Management believes these non-GAAP measures provide **increased transparency** and assist investors in understanding underlying operating performance and trends by excluding items like swap adjustments, restructuring costs, and mark-to-market adjustments[29](index=29&type=chunk)[53](index=53&type=chunk)[55](index=55&type=chunk) - The report provides detailed reconciliation tables for Net Earnings to Adjusted Net Earnings, Diluted EPS to Adjusted Diluted EPS, Net Earnings to Adjusted EBITDA, Segment Profit to Segment Adjusted EBITDA, and Net Cash from Operations to Free Cash Flow[60](index=60&type=chunk)[62](index=62&type=chunk)[64](index=64&type=chunk)[66](index=66&type=chunk)[73](index=73&type=chunk)