Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q4 were $2.2 billion, with a 12% increase driven by the acquisition of Eighth Avenue; excluding this acquisition, net sales declined due to lower pet food and cereal volumes [12][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $425 million, with a 50% increase in foodservice adjusted EBITDA driven by avian influenza pricing and volume growth [12][13] - Free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $150 million, with full-year free cash flow nearing $500 million [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post's consumer brands net sales, excluding Eighth Avenue, decreased by 13%, with cereal volumes down 8% and pet volumes down 13% [12][13] - Foodservice net sales increased by 20%, with an 11% volume increase; adjusted EBITDA increased by 50% [12][13] - Refrigerated retail net sales were flat, with volumes down 4% excluding PPI impact; adjusted EBITDA increased by 44% [12][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cold chain business showed strong performance, particularly in egg and potato volumes, with higher margin egg products growing nearly 9% in Q4 [9][10] - The U.K. cereal category showed improvement, with Weetabix's net sales increasing by 4% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on cost reduction and profitable brand investments in retail while expecting volume growth in foodservice [6][8] - There is an ongoing review of M&A opportunities, with a balanced approach between acquisitions and share buybacks based on risk-return perspectives [20][21] - The company plans to make targeted investments in innovation across various categories, including protein and granola products in cereal [37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating regulatory changes and consumer sentiment challenges, highlighting the resilience of their diversified portfolio [5][6] - For FY 2026, the company expects adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.50 billion to $1.54 billion, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 1%-4% [16] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 2.6 million shares in Q4, totaling 6.4 million shares for FY 2025 [15][16] - Capital expenditure guidance for FY 2026 is set at $350 million to $390 million, significantly lower than FY 2025 [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry volume challenges and capital allocation decisions - Management acknowledged the structural versus cyclical nature of current industry challenges and emphasized a more thoughtful approach to capital allocation, balancing M&A and share buybacks [19][20] Question: Cost optimization in cereal segment - Management indicated that while there are additional cost reduction opportunities, larger actions like plant closures have already been taken, focusing now on line optimization [22][23] Question: Normalized growth outlook for segments - Management expects the PCB legacy business to remain flat, while other segments are projected to align with growth algorithms [26][27] Question: Performance in refrigerated retail - Management noted that while pricing benefits inflated margins, they expect high teens margins to be reasonable, with a return to around 16% during slower periods [32] Question: Innovation investments in 2026 - Management plans to invest in brand innovation across categories, including new product lines in cereal and pet food [37] Question: Demand for value-added products in foodservice - Management expressed confidence in sustained demand for value-added products due to historical trends and operational efficiencies [39][40] Question: Key moving parts in pet segment - Management highlighted the impact of lost private label business and expected a return to flat or slight growth in the second half of FY 2026 [45] Question: Pricing rationality in cereal category - Management noted competitive pressure and promotional activities affecting pricing dynamics in the cereal category [47]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing volatility with mixed signals in premarket trading following a significant sell-off, driven by concerns over AI stock valuations and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1][2][10] - Major indexes closed sharply lower in the previous session, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.15%, S&P 500 down 1.56%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.84%, indicating a potential for significant weekly losses [5] Premarket Trading and Futures - Nasdaq 100 futures are down approximately 0.2% to 0.5%, while Dow Jones futures are up between 0.4% and 0.8%, and S&P 500 futures are largely unchanged or up around 0.3% to 0.6% [2] - The sentiment in premarket trading is characterized by a "risk-off" mood, particularly affecting the tech sector and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin trading around $82,800, its lowest since April 11 [3] Treasury Yields and Commodities - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has slightly decreased to 4.07% from approximately 4.10% [4] - WTI crude futures have dropped 2.2% to $57.85 per barrel, and gold futures are down 0.6% at $4,035 per ounce [4] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic events include remarks from Federal Reserve officials and the release of PMI Composite Flash and Consumer Sentiment data, which could influence market direction [6] - Investors are anticipating crucial economic data for the week of November 24th, including the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence, which may impact the Federal Reserve's stance [7] Corporate Earnings and Stock Movements - Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell 3.2% despite strong third-quarter results, reflecting concerns over AI sector valuations [13] - Walmart (WMT) saw a 6.5% increase in shares after exceeding expectations and raising its fiscal outlook [13] - Gap (GPS) shares rose 5.6% due to strong comparable sales, while Intuit (INTU) climbed 3.2% after better-than-expected fiscal results [13] - New Fortress Energy (NFE) surged 19.86% in premarket trading amid debt restructuring efforts [13] - Microsoft (MSFT) reported strong first-quarter results, while Alphabet (GOOGL) shares increased 8% following earnings, driven by AI momentum [13] - Meta Platforms (META) experienced a nearly 22% drop due to concerns over spending on AI projects [13] - Palantir (PLTR) shares fell 22% despite strong results, attributed to high valuation expectations [13]

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported strong financial performance for the quarter ending September 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.09, exceeding estimates of $1.87 and showing a significant increase from $1.53 in the same quarter last year [2][6] - The company generated approximately $2.25 billion in revenue, marking an 11.8% increase year-over-year, although slightly below estimates [3][6] - For the entire fiscal year, Post Holdings achieved net sales of $8.2 billion, an operating profit of $799.3 million, and net earnings of $335.7 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA of $1.54 billion [4] Financial Metrics - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 17.27, and the price-to-sales ratio is about 0.71, indicating favorable market valuation [5][6] - The enterprise value to sales ratio stands around 1.60, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is approximately 14.01, reflecting solid valuation metrics [5] - The debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.98, indicating financial leverage, while the current ratio of approximately 1.67 suggests the company's ability to cover short-term liabilities [5]

Core Insights - Post Holdings reported revenue of $2.25 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting an 11.8% increase year-over-year and matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with an EPS of $2.09 compared to $1.53 in the previous year [1] - The company achieved an EPS surprise of +8.85%, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.92 [1] Revenue Performance - Net Sales for Weetabix reached $145 million, surpassing the average estimate of $141.04 million, marking a year-over-year increase of +3.6% [4] - Net Sales for Post Consumer Brands were $1.16 billion, below the estimated $1.24 billion, but still showing a +10.6% change compared to the previous year [4] - Foodservice net sales amounted to $718 million, exceeding the average estimate of $637.73 million, with a year-over-year increase of +20.5% [4] - Refrigerated Retail net sales were $228.2 million, slightly below the estimated $232.5 million, reflecting a +0.8% change year-over-year [4] EBITDA Analysis - Adjusted EBITDA for Post Consumer Brands was $208 million, lower than the average estimate of $227.48 million [4] - Weetabix's Adjusted EBITDA was $32.6 million, slightly below the estimate of $33.75 million [4] - Foodservice Adjusted EBITDA reached $161.1 million, significantly above the estimated $127.83 million [4] - Corporate/Other Adjusted EBITDA was reported at -$21.9 million, better than the average estimate of -$23.67 million [4] - Refrigerated Retail Adjusted EBITDA was $45.6 million, exceeding the estimate of $36.63 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Post Holdings have returned -1.8%, compared to a -0.3% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Post Holdings (POST) reported quarterly earnings of $2.09 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.92 per share, and up from $1.53 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +8.85% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.25 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, slightly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.01%, and an increase from $2.01 billion year-over-year [2] - Post Holdings has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, achieving this four times [2] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.96 on revenues of $2.2 billion, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $7.92 on revenues of $8.68 billion [7] - The company's earnings outlook will be influenced by management's commentary during the earnings call, which is crucial for understanding future stock performance [3][4] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, to which Post Holdings belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5] Stock Performance - Post Holdings shares have declined approximately 6.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 12.9% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Post Holdings is 3 (Hold), suggesting that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6]

Financial Performance - Net sales for Q4 2025 were $2,247.0 million, an increase of 11.8% or $236.9 million compared to $2,010.1 million in Q4 2024[5] - Gross profit for Q4 2025 was $602.1 million, representing 26.8% of net sales, an increase of 4.6% or $26.7 million from $575.4 million in Q4 2024[5] - Net earnings for Q4 2025 were $51.0 million, a decrease of 37.5% or $30.6 million compared to $81.6 million in Q4 2024[7] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $425.4 million, an increase of 22.0% or $76.7 million compared to $348.7 million in Q4 2024[9] - For fiscal year 2025, net sales were $8,158.1 million, an increase of $235.4 million compared to $7,922.7 million in fiscal year 2024[10] - Fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $1,538.8 million, an increase of 9.6% or $135.2 million compared to $1,403.6 million in fiscal year 2024[13] - Diluted earnings per share for FY 2025 were $5.51, a decrease from $5.64 in FY 2024[42] - Operating profit for Q4 FY 2025 was $168.4 million, compared to $190.9 million in Q4 FY 2024, reflecting a decline of 11.8%[42] Segment Performance - The Foodservice segment reported Q4 2025 net sales of $718.0 million, an increase of 20.4% or $121.9 million compared to Q4 2024[19] - Segment profit for Foodservice increased significantly to $399.7 million, up 29.7% from $308.1 million in 2024[48] - Segment Profit for Post Consumer Brands was $493.9 million, representing 12.3% of Net Sales[74] - Operating Profit for the Refrigerated segment was $399.7 million, with a segment profit margin of 15.1%[74] - Segment Profit for the Weetabix segment was $74.0 million, accounting for 13.6% of Net Sales[74] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Operating activities generated cash of $998.3 million, up from $931.7 million in the previous year, reflecting a growth of 7.0%[46] - Free Cash Flow for the year ended September 30, 2025, was $488.1 million, compared to $502.2 million in 2024[77] - Capital expenditures for the year ended September 30, 2025, were $510.2 million[77] - Capital expenditures for FY 2026 are expected to range from $350 million to $390 million, with $80 million to $90 million allocated for foodservice investments[29] Shareholder Actions - Post repurchased 2.5 million shares for $273.8 million at an average price of $106.48 per share in Q4 FY 2025[28] - The company had $282.6 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization as of November 19, 2025[28] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $13,528.4 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $12,854.2 million in 2024, representing a growth of 5.2%[44] - Total current liabilities rose to $1,213.1 million, an increase of 28.5% from $944.9 million in 2024[44] - Long-term debt increased to $7,421.7 million, up from $6,811.6 million, marking a rise of 8.9%[44] Impairments and Expenses - The company recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $29.8 million in Q4 2025 related to its Cheese and Dairy reporting unit[23] - The company reported an impairment of goodwill of $29.8 million in the Refrigerated segment[74] - General corporate expenses for the year ended September 30, 2025, totaled $221.8 million[74] - Depreciation and amortization expenses for the year ended September 30, 2025, were $243.4 million[74] Leadership Changes - The company announced a leadership change with Robert V. Vitale becoming Chairman of the Board effective December 16, 2025[32] Guidance and Expectations - The company expects fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to range between $1,500 million and $1,540 million[7] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for FY 2026 is projected to be between $1,500 million and $1,540 million, including contributions from 8th Avenue's pasta business[29]

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported a 11.8% increase in net sales for the fourth fiscal quarter, reaching $2,247.0 million, compared to $2,010.1 million in the prior year period [5] - The company experienced a decrease in net earnings by 37.5%, totaling $51.0 million, down from $81.6 million in the previous year [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $425.4 million, reflecting a 22.0% increase compared to $348.7 million in the prior year [8] Financial Performance - **Fourth Quarter Results**: - Net sales increased to $2,247.0 million, up $236.9 million from the previous year [5] - Gross profit was $602.1 million, representing 26.8% of net sales, an increase of 4.6% from the prior year [5] - SG&A expenses rose to $350.1 million, or 15.6% of net sales, an increase of 2.5% compared to the previous year [6] - Operating profit decreased to $168.4 million, down 11.8% from $190.9 million in the prior year [6] - **Fiscal Year 2025 Results**: - Total net sales reached $8,158.1 million, an increase of $235.4 million from $7,922.7 million in the prior year [9] - Gross profit was $2,339.4 million, or 28.7% of net sales, a slight increase from the previous year [9] - SG&A expenses decreased to $1,308.6 million, or 16.0% of net sales, down from 16.8% in the prior year [10] - Operating profit was $799.3 million, a marginal increase of 0.7% from the previous year [10] Segment Performance - **Post Consumer Brands**: - Fourth quarter net sales were $1,158.8 million, a 10.6% increase, but volumes decreased by 11.5% excluding acquisitions [15] - Fiscal year net sales were $4,024.6 million, a decrease of 2.1% from the prior year [16] - **Weetabix**: - Fourth quarter net sales increased to $145.0 million, a 3.6% rise, while fiscal year sales were $542.2 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% [18][19] - **Foodservice**: - Fourth quarter net sales reached $718.0 million, a 20.4% increase, with fiscal year sales at $2,641.0 million, up 14.5% [20][21] - **Refrigerated Retail**: - Fourth quarter net sales were $228.2 million, a modest increase of 0.8%, while fiscal year sales decreased to $953.3 million, down 0.9% [22][23] Acquisitions and Divestitures - Post completed the acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions on July 1, 2025, and plans to sell its pasta business by December 2025 [3][12] - The acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho was completed on March 3, 2025, contributing to the Refrigerated Retail and Foodservice segments [4] Shareholder Actions - In the fourth quarter, Post repurchased 2.5 million shares for $273.8 million, and for the fiscal year, 6.4 million shares were repurchased for $708.5 million [29]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. is expected to report strong quarterly earnings with significant year-over-year growth in EPS and revenue, driven by various operational strengths and market demand [1][2][3][6] Financial Performance - For the quarter ending September 2025, Post Holdings is projected to report an EPS of $1.92, reflecting a 25.5% increase from the previous year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to reach approximately $2.25 billion, indicating an 11.8% rise compared to the same quarter last year [2][4] - The company has consistently delivered an average earnings surprise of 21.4% over the last four quarters [3] Operational Drivers - Performance is bolstered by gains from the 8th Avenue unit, increased seasonal demand for cereals, and strong momentum in cold-chain and foodservice units [3][6] - Improved volumes in egg and potato products, along with healthy breakfast traffic, support cold-chain operations [3] Market Valuation - Post Holdings has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 16.27, indicating the market's valuation of its earnings [5][6] - The price-to-sales ratio stands at 0.73, suggesting that investors are paying 73 cents for every dollar of sales [5][6] - A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.84 highlights the company's reliance on debt financing relative to equity, while a current ratio of 2.60 indicates a strong liquidity position [5]

Core Viewpoint - Palliser Capital believes that the market continues to undervalue Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd (JPH), despite its exceptional asset quality and significant potential to unlock embedded value [1] Group 1: Investment Presentation - Palliser Capital presented its investment in JPH at the Annual Sohn London Investment Conference [1] - The presentation highlighted the reasons for the perceived undervaluation of JPH in the market [1] Group 2: Company Insights - James Smith, Founder and CIO of Palliser, emphasized that JPH's true value has not been recognized by the market [1]

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. ...