Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 results with net sales missing estimates but adjusted earnings exceeding expectations, both metrics showing year-over-year declines [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.41, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18, but down from $1.51 in the prior year [2]. - Net sales totaled $1,952.1 million, a 2.3% decrease year over year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,977 million [2]. - Gross profit was $545.8 million, down 5.8% year over year, with gross margin contracting to 28% from 29% [3]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased by 7.8% to $314.8 million, representing 16.1% of net sales compared to 17.1% in the previous year [3]. - Operating profit decreased by 4.2% to $182.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 0.4% to $346.5 million [3]. Segment Performance - **Post Consumer Brands**: Net sales were $987.9 million, down 7.3% year over year, missing estimates. Volumes fell by 5.8%, with cereal volumes down 6.3% [4]. - **Weetabix**: Reported a 4.6% decline in net sales to $131.7 million, missing estimates. Volumes decreased by 7.1% [5]. - **Foodservice**: Achieved 9.6% growth in net sales to $607.9 million, surpassing estimates. Volumes grew by 2.8% [6]. - **Refrigerated Retail**: Sales dipped 6.6% to $224.6 million, missing estimates. Volumes dropped by 4.9% [7]. Other Financial Aspects - Cash and cash equivalents stood at $617.6 million, with long-term debt of $6,944.6 million and total shareholders' equity of $3,841.4 million [8]. - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $191.6 million in the second quarter, totaling 3.3 million shares for $372.7 million in the first half of fiscal 2025 [9][10]. Future Guidance - Post Holdings updated its fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1,430-$1,470 million, up from the previous range of $1,420-$1,460 million [11]. - Expected capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are between $390 million and $430 million, including significant investments in Post Consumer Brands and Foodservice [12].

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 __________________ FORM 10-Q __________________ ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from _____ to _____ Commission File Number: 1-35305 Post Holdings, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q2 were $2 billion, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower overall volumes in retail businesses, partially offset by elevated avian influenza-driven pricing in foodservice and volume growth in shakes [14][15] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $347 million, with a decrease in foodservice adjusted EBITDA of approximately $20 million compared to Q1, attributed to $30 million in costs ahead of pricing impacts [9][14] - Year-to-date cash flow was $240 million, with free cash flow of approximately $70 million net of CapEx spend, reflecting a decrease sequentially from the previous quarter [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post Consumer Brands (PCB) net sales decreased by 7%, driven by lower volumes in both cereal and pet segments, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5% [14][15] - Foodservice net sales increased by 10%, with volumes up by 3%, reflecting elevated pricing and higher shake sales, although excluding shakes, volumes were down by 1% [15][16] - Refrigerated retail net sales decreased by 7%, with volumes down by 5%, impacted by the timing of Easter and avian influenza [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cereal category experienced a decline of 3.7%, with the branded portfolio slightly behind at a decline of 4.5%, leading to pressures on manufacturing utilization and cost structure [10] - The pet segment faced a decline in volume consumption of 4.5%, while the overall category remained flat, indicating challenges in demand for specific brands [10][15] - Weetabix saw a 5% decrease in net sales, with volumes down by 7%, affected by lower promotions and pricing decisions [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on managing costs and optimizing its asset base, including the closure of two plants by the end of the calendar year to address manufacturing pressures [10][15] - The strategy includes a focus on driving volumes in the sides business and integrating the newly acquired PPI business, with expectations for improved margins in the latter half of the year [12][57] - The company is leaning into share repurchases, having bought approximately 6% of its shares since the beginning of the fiscal year, indicating a strong position for opportunistic capital allocation [13][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer sentiment is weak, and there is a need to focus on demand drivers and flawless supply chain execution [6][8] - The uncertainty in capital markets complicates M&A valuations, leading to a focus on smaller tactical transactions [12] - Management expects to recover unfavorable costs seen in Q2 during the remainder of fiscal 2025, assuming no additional outbreaks of avian influenza [9][19] Other Important Information - The company has increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion for the fiscal year [19] - The recent tariff actions and volatility in capital markets have slowed the M&A pipeline, with a focus on transactions with clear synergies [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term run rate expectations for Foodservice unit - Management indicated that the long-term run rate is likely higher than previously thought, but a couple of quarters of normalcy are needed to make a better assessment [21][23] Question: Maintaining profitability in PCB despite volume declines - Management aims to manage costs effectively to maintain profitability, with expectations of a gradual improvement in cereal category declines [24][26] Question: Setup for PCB in fiscal 2026 - Management believes that the transition year for Pet will yield benefits next year, potentially offsetting headwinds in the cereal business [30][32] Question: Key drivers of price mix downturn in PCB - Management noted that the category is expected to remain pressured, particularly in cereal, while larger pack sizes are affecting mix negatively [36][37] Question: Options for Eighth Avenue business - Management expressed confidence in the business operations and indicated that a resolution regarding near-term maturities will be forthcoming [39] Question: Savings from cereal plant closures - Management expects about $20 million in annualized benefits from the plant closures, with potential offsets depending on category performance [42][43] Question: Impact of cautious consumers on pet business - Management noted that a shift towards value brands could favor their offerings, although market share dynamics differ from cereal [46][47] Question: Expectations for Refrigerated Retail and distribution expansion - Management highlighted improved capacity post-PPI acquisition and plans for innovation and expansion in the category [54][57] Question: Sequential improvement in category trends - Management observed slight improvements in cereal category performance but cautioned against claiming victory too soon [74] Question: RTD shake manufacturing ramp progress - Management reported sequential improvements in shake production, although it remains a minor contributor to profit at current levels [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q2 were $2 billion, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower overall volumes in retail businesses, partially offset by elevated avian influenza-driven pricing in foodservice and volume growth in shakes [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $347 million, reflecting a decrease in foodservice adjusted EBITDA by approximately $20 million compared to Q1 due to avian influenza costs [8][13] - Year-to-date cash flow was $240 million, with free cash flow of approximately $70 million net of CapEx spend, indicating a decrease sequentially from the previous quarter [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post Consumer Brands (PCB) net sales decreased by 7%, driven by lower volumes in both cereal and pet segments, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5% [13][14] - Foodservice net sales increased by 10%, with volumes up by 3%, reflecting elevated pricing and higher shake sales, although excluding shakes, volumes were down by 1% [14][15] - Refrigerated retail net sales decreased by 7%, with volumes down by 5%, impacted by the timing of Easter and avian influenza [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cereal category experienced a decline of 3.7%, with the branded portfolio slightly behind at a decline of 4.5%, leading to pressures on manufacturing utilization and cost structure [9][13] - The pet segment faced a decline in volume consumption of 4.5%, while the overall category remained flat, indicating challenges in demand and distribution [9][14] - Weetabix saw a 5% decrease in net sales, with volumes down by 7%, affected by lower promotions and pricing decisions [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on managing costs and optimizing its asset base to maintain profitability in the face of declining volumes in the cereal category [22][30] - The recent acquisition of PPI is expected to provide new capacity and opportunities for innovation, allowing the company to explore private label and value chain strategies [51][62] - The company plans to continue share repurchases and remains well-positioned for opportunistic capital allocation despite the current market uncertainties [12][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer sentiment is weak, and there is a need to focus on demand drivers and supply chain execution [6][8] - The company expects to recover unfavorable costs ahead of pricing impacts seen in Q2 during the remainder of fiscal 2025, assuming no additional avian influenza outbreaks [8][18] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by avian influenza and the need for a couple of quarters of normalcy to better assess long-term run rates for the foodservice unit [21] Other Important Information - The company has closed two plants by the end of the calendar year to address manufacturing utilization issues [9] - The company has repurchased approximately 6% of its shares since the beginning of the fiscal year, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [12][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term run rate expectations for the Foodservice unit - Management indicated that the long-term run rate is likely higher than previously thought, but a couple of quarters of normalcy are needed to make a better assessment [21] Question: Maintaining profitability in PCB despite volume declines - Management aims to manage costs effectively to maintain profitability, with expectations of a gradual improvement in cereal category declines [22][30] Question: Setup for PCB in fiscal 2026 - Management believes that the transition year for Pet will yield benefits next year, potentially offsetting headwinds in the cereal business [29][30] Question: Key drivers of price mix downturn in PCB - Management noted that the pricing recovery in foodservice will offset some of the pressures in the cereal category for the remainder of the fiscal year [33] Question: Options for Eighth Avenue business - Management expressed confidence in the business operations and indicated that a resolution regarding near-term maturities will be forthcoming [35] Question: Insights from the PPI acquisition - Initial learnings suggest some unexpected synergies and challenges in employee integration, but the acquisition is expected to fit well into the company's network [61][62] Question: Trends in grocery category performance - Management observed a dichotomy in consumer behavior, with premium products performing well while others are seeing reduced demand [67]

For the quarter ended March 2025, Post Holdings (POST) reported revenue of $1.95 billion, down 2.4% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.41, compared to $1.51 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.98 billion, representing a surprise of -1.28%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +19.49%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.18.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how ...

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings reported quarterly earnings of $1.41 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18 per share, but down from $1.51 per share a year ago, indicating a 19.49% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.95 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.28%, and down from $2 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Post Holdings has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times but has only topped revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Post Holdings shares have declined approximately 2.9% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has seen a decline of 4.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.69 on revenues of $1.96 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.40 on revenues of $7.94 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Post Holdings is mixed, which may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, to which Post Holdings belongs, is currently in the top 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

[Consolidated Financial Results](index=1&type=section&id=Second%20Quarter%20Consolidated%20Operating%20Results) Q2 FY2025 saw a 2.3% net sales decrease and 35.6% net earnings decline, while Adjusted EBITDA remained stable Q2 Fiscal 2025 Consolidated Financial Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $1,952.1 | $1,999.0 | -2.3% | | Gross Profit | $545.8 | $579.6 | -5.8% | | Operating Profit | $182.2 | $190.1 | -4.2% | | Net Earnings | $62.6 | $97.2 | -35.6% | | Diluted EPS | $1.03 | $1.48 | -30.4% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $346.5 | $345.2 | +0.4% | Six Months Fiscal 2025 Consolidated Financial Performance (YoY) | Metric | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $3,926.8 | $3,964.9 | -1.0% | | Gross Profit | $1,141.1 | $1,152.2 | -1.0% | | Operating Profit | $396.3 | $399.4 | -0.8% | | Net Earnings | $175.9 | $185.3 | -5.1% | | Diluted EPS | $2.83 | $2.83 | 0.0% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $716.4 | $704.7 | +1.7% | - On March 3, 2025, Post completed its acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho, L.L.C., with its results now included in the Refrigerated Retail and Foodservice segments[3](index=3&type=chunk) [Segment Performance](index=2&type=section&id=SEGMENT%20INFORMATION) Q2 FY2025 segment performance was mixed, with Foodservice sales growth offsetting declines in other segments [Post Consumer Brands](index=2&type=section&id=Post%20Consumer%20Brands) Post Consumer Brands saw Q2 net sales decrease by 7.3% due to volume declines in cereal and pet food, yet Adjusted EBITDA increased by 2.4% Post Consumer Brands Q2 & H1 FY2025 Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $987.9 | $1,065.5 | -7.3% | $1,951.8 | $2,054.1 | -5.0% | | Segment Profit | $139.6 | $139.7 | -0.1% | $270.6 | $272.4 | -0.7% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $203.8 | $199.0 | +2.4% | $408.6 | $388.8 | +5.1% | - The decrease in net sales was primarily driven by a **5.8% decline in volumes**, with cereal volumes down **6.3%** and pet food volumes down **5.4%**[13](index=13&type=chunk) [Weetabix](index=2&type=section&id=Weetabix) Weetabix Q2 net sales decreased by 4.6% due to volume declines and currency headwinds, but Segment Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9.0% Weetabix Q2 & H1 FY2025 Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $131.7 | $138.0 | -4.6% | $259.3 | $267.1 | -2.9% | | Segment Profit | $18.2 | $18.1 | +0.6% | $34.1 | $39.1 | -12.8% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $30.3 | $27.8 | +9.0% | $58.3 | $58.4 | -0.2% | - Volumes decreased **7.1%**, primarily due to the strategic exit of low-performing products, lower promotional activity, and cereal category declines[15](index=15&type=chunk) [Foodservice](index=2&type=section&id=Foodservice) Foodservice Q2 net sales increased by 9.6% driven by shake volumes, but segment profit and Adjusted EBITDA declined by 4.7% and 5.6% respectively Foodservice Q2 & H1 FY2025 Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $607.9 | $554.8 | +9.6% | $1,224.5 | $1,121.9 | +9.1% | | Segment Profit | $61.5 | $64.5 | -4.7% | $147.6 | $140.2 | +5.3% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $96.0 | $101.7 | -5.6% | $212.8 | $207.5 | +2.6% | - Volumes increased **2.8%**, driven by the inclusion of ready-to-drink shakes, which was partially offset by declines in egg and potato volumes[17](index=17&type=chunk) [Refrigerated Retail](index=3&type=section&id=Refrigerated%20Retail) Refrigerated Retail Q2 net sales fell 6.6% and volumes declined 4.9% due to holiday timing shifts, leading to significant profit and Adjusted EBITDA decreases Refrigerated Retail Q2 & H1 FY2025 Performance (YoY) | Metric | Q2 FY2025 (M) | Q2 FY2024 (M) | Change | H1 FY2025 (M) | H1 FY2024 (M) | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $224.6 | $240.4 | -6.6% | $491.2 | $521.3 | -5.8% | | Segment Profit | $16.2 | $22.4 | -27.7% | $40.4 | $58.0 | -30.3% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $34.7 | $40.5 | -14.3% | $76.3 | $94.1 | -18.9% | Refrigerated Retail Q2 Volume Percentage Change (YoY) | Product | Volume Percentage Change | | :--- | :--- | | All | (4.9%) | | Side dishes | (8.2%) | | Egg | (3.9%) | | Cheese | (15.0%) | | Sausage | (5.1%) | [Other Financial Information](index=3&type=section&id=Interest%2C%20Loss%20%28Gain%29%20on%20Extinguishment%20of%20Debt%2C%20Expense%20%28Income%29%20on%20Swaps%20and%20Income%20Tax) Q2 FY2025 saw increased net interest expense and a swap expense reversal, with an effective tax rate of 24.3% and continued share repurchases - Net interest expense increased in Q2 and H1 2025 due to **higher average outstanding debt** and a **higher weighted-average interest rate**[21](index=21&type=chunk) - The company recorded a net expense on swaps of **$5.5 million** in Q2 2025, compared to a net income of **$13.3 million** in Q2 2024[23](index=23&type=chunk) Share Repurchase Activity | Period | Shares Repurchased (M) | Total Cost (M) | Average Price/Share | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Q2 FY2025 | 1.7 | $191.6 | $110.19 | | H1 FY2025 | 3.3 | $372.7 | $112.19 | | Post-Q2 (thru May 7) | 0.2 | $17.4 | $113.25 | - As of May 7, 2025, Post had **$397.9 million** remaining under its share repurchase authorization[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Fiscal Year 2025 Outlook](index=3&type=section&id=Outlook) Post Holdings raised its FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1,430-$1,470 million, assuming avian influenza cost recovery, with capital expenditures projected at $390-$430 million - Raised fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to **$1,430-$1,470 million** from **$1,420-$1,460 million**[9](index=9&type=chunk)[26](index=26&type=chunk) - Outlook includes key assumptions for the Foodservice segment related to avian influenza: recovery of **~$30 million** in costs incurred in Q2 and no additional outbreaks on controlled farms[27](index=27&type=chunk) - Fiscal year 2025 capital expenditures are expected to range from **$390-$430 million**, with significant investments in Post Consumer Brands (**$100-$110 million**) and Foodservice (**$80-$90 million**)[26](index=26&type=chunk) [Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This section presents the unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations, Balance Sheets, and Cash Flows, detailing the company's financial position and performance - The Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations show detailed financial performance for the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the prior year[41](index=41&type=chunk)[42](index=42&type=chunk) - The Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets present the company's financial position as of March 31, 2025, against September 30, 2024[43](index=43&type=chunk)[44](index=44&type=chunk) - The Selected Condensed Consolidated Cash Flows Information details cash provided by or used in operating, investing, and financing activities for the six months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024[45](index=45&type=chunk)[46](index=46&type=chunk) [Explanation and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures](index=10&type=section&id=EXPLANATION%20AND%20RECONCILIATION%20OF%20NON-GAAP%20MEASURES) This section explains and reconciles non-GAAP measures like Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow, providing transparent insights into underlying business performance - The company uses non-GAAP measures like **Adjusted net earnings**, **Adjusted EBITDA**, and **free cash flow** to supplement GAAP financial measures[29](index=29&type=chunk)[52](index=52&type=chunk) - Management believes these non-GAAP measures provide **increased transparency** and assist investors in understanding underlying operating performance and trends by excluding items like swap adjustments, restructuring costs, and mark-to-market adjustments[29](index=29&type=chunk)[53](index=53&type=chunk)[55](index=55&type=chunk) - The report provides detailed reconciliation tables for Net Earnings to Adjusted Net Earnings, Diluted EPS to Adjusted Diluted EPS, Net Earnings to Adjusted EBITDA, Segment Profit to Segment Adjusted EBITDA, and Net Cash from Operations to Free Cash Flow[60](index=60&type=chunk)[62](index=62&type=chunk)[64](index=64&type=chunk)[66](index=66&type=chunk)[73](index=73&type=chunk)

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported a decrease in net sales for the second fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2025, with net sales of $1,952.1 million, down 2.3% from $1,999.0 million in the prior year period [4][10] - The company experienced a significant decline in net earnings, which were $62.6 million, a decrease of 35.6% compared to $97.2 million in the prior year period [6][10] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $346.5 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4% from $345.2 million in the prior year [7][10] Financial Performance - Net sales for the six months ended March 31, 2025, were $3,926.8 million, a decrease of 1.0% from $3,964.9 million in the prior year [8] - Gross profit for the second quarter was $545.8 million, or 28.0% of net sales, down from $579.6 million, or 29.0% of net sales, in the prior year [4] - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased to $314.8 million, or 16.1% of net sales, from $341.3 million, or 17.1% of net sales, in the prior year [5] Segment Performance - Post Consumer Brands segment reported net sales of $987.9 million, a decrease of 7.3% driven by a 5.8% decline in volumes [12] - Foodservice segment saw an increase in net sales to $607.9 million, up 9.6% compared to the prior year, driven by the inclusion of ready-to-drink shakes [16] - Refrigerated Retail segment experienced a decline in net sales to $224.6 million, down 6.6% due to shifting holiday demand [18] Share Repurchases - During the second quarter, the company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $191.6 million at an average price of $110.19 per share [25] - For the six months ended March 31, 2025, Post repurchased a total of 3.3 million shares for $372.7 million [25] Outlook - The company raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1,430-$1,470 million from the previous range of $1,420-$1,460 million [26] - Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 are expected to range between $390-$430 million, including investments in network optimization and facility expansions [26]

Core Insights - Post Holdings (POST) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.18 per share, a decline of 21.9% year-over-year, with revenues forecasted at $1.98 billion, reflecting a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period last year [1] Earnings Estimates - There has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days, indicating that analysts have maintained their initial projections [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts predict 'Net Sales- Weetabix' to reach $133.10 million, indicating a year-over-year change of -3.6% [4] - 'Net Sales- Refrigerated Retail' is expected to be $237.73 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of -1.1% [5] - 'Net Sales- Post Consumer Brands' is projected at $1.02 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of -4.4% [5] - 'Net Sales- Foodservice' is estimated at $584.58 million, showing a year-over-year change of +5.4% [5] Adjusted EBITDA Estimates - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Post Consumer Brands' is projected to be $204.92 million, compared to $199 million in the same quarter last year [6] - The consensus estimate for 'Adjusted EBITDA- Weetabix' is $27.17 million, slightly down from $27.80 million year-over-year [6] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Foodservice' is expected to be $75.40 million, down from $101.70 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Refrigerated Retail' is projected at $39.89 million, compared to $40.50 million in the same quarter of the previous year [7] Stock Performance - Shares of Post Holdings have returned +0.7% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +10.6% [8] - Post Holdings holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to mirror overall market performance in the near future [8]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenue estimates at nearly $2 billion, reflecting a 1.1% decrease year-over-year, and earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $1.18, indicating a 21.9% decline from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is approximately $2 billion, which represents a 1.1% decrease from the prior-year quarter [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by a penny to $1.18 per share, indicating a 21.9% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter [2]. Factors Affecting Performance - The anticipated decline in performance is attributed to the impact of Avian influenza outbreaks at two third-party contracted farms, leading to a supply imbalance and expected costs of $30 million to $50 million in the fiscal second quarter [2]. - Rising selling, general, and administrative expenses, particularly due to increased advertising and commercial expenditures, are also pressuring the company's performance [3]. - Subdued consumer demand, especially in price-sensitive categories like cereal, is negatively impacting the Post Consumer Brands segment [3]. Positive Aspects - The Foodservice segment is experiencing robust demand from restaurants and institutional clients, with revenue estimates for this segment at $585 million, showing year-over-year growth from $554.8 million [4]. - Effective pricing strategies and a focus on premium product offerings are helping to mitigate higher input costs, supporting overall performance [5]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a potential earnings beat for Post Holdings, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +3.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6].