Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported a decrease in net sales for the second fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2025, with net sales of $1,952.1 million, down 2.3% from $1,999.0 million in the prior year period [4][10] - The company experienced a significant decline in net earnings, which were $62.6 million, a decrease of 35.6% compared to $97.2 million in the prior year period [6][10] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $346.5 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4% from $345.2 million in the prior year [7][10] Financial Performance - Net sales for the six months ended March 31, 2025, were $3,926.8 million, a decrease of 1.0% from $3,964.9 million in the prior year [8] - Gross profit for the second quarter was $545.8 million, or 28.0% of net sales, down from $579.6 million, or 29.0% of net sales, in the prior year [4] - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased to $314.8 million, or 16.1% of net sales, from $341.3 million, or 17.1% of net sales, in the prior year [5] Segment Performance - Post Consumer Brands segment reported net sales of $987.9 million, a decrease of 7.3% driven by a 5.8% decline in volumes [12] - Foodservice segment saw an increase in net sales to $607.9 million, up 9.6% compared to the prior year, driven by the inclusion of ready-to-drink shakes [16] - Refrigerated Retail segment experienced a decline in net sales to $224.6 million, down 6.6% due to shifting holiday demand [18] Share Repurchases - During the second quarter, the company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $191.6 million at an average price of $110.19 per share [25] - For the six months ended March 31, 2025, Post repurchased a total of 3.3 million shares for $372.7 million [25] Outlook - The company raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1,430-$1,470 million from the previous range of $1,420-$1,460 million [26] - Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 are expected to range between $390-$430 million, including investments in network optimization and facility expansions [26]

Core Insights - Post Holdings (POST) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.18 per share, a decline of 21.9% year-over-year, with revenues forecasted at $1.98 billion, reflecting a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period last year [1] Earnings Estimates - There has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days, indicating that analysts have maintained their initial projections [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts predict 'Net Sales- Weetabix' to reach $133.10 million, indicating a year-over-year change of -3.6% [4] - 'Net Sales- Refrigerated Retail' is expected to be $237.73 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of -1.1% [5] - 'Net Sales- Post Consumer Brands' is projected at $1.02 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of -4.4% [5] - 'Net Sales- Foodservice' is estimated at $584.58 million, showing a year-over-year change of +5.4% [5] Adjusted EBITDA Estimates - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Post Consumer Brands' is projected to be $204.92 million, compared to $199 million in the same quarter last year [6] - The consensus estimate for 'Adjusted EBITDA- Weetabix' is $27.17 million, slightly down from $27.80 million year-over-year [6] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Foodservice' is expected to be $75.40 million, down from $101.70 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Refrigerated Retail' is projected at $39.89 million, compared to $40.50 million in the same quarter of the previous year [7] Stock Performance - Shares of Post Holdings have returned +0.7% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +10.6% [8] - Post Holdings holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to mirror overall market performance in the near future [8]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenue estimates at nearly $2 billion, reflecting a 1.1% decrease year-over-year, and earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $1.18, indicating a 21.9% decline from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is approximately $2 billion, which represents a 1.1% decrease from the prior-year quarter [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by a penny to $1.18 per share, indicating a 21.9% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter [2]. Factors Affecting Performance - The anticipated decline in performance is attributed to the impact of Avian influenza outbreaks at two third-party contracted farms, leading to a supply imbalance and expected costs of $30 million to $50 million in the fiscal second quarter [2]. - Rising selling, general, and administrative expenses, particularly due to increased advertising and commercial expenditures, are also pressuring the company's performance [3]. - Subdued consumer demand, especially in price-sensitive categories like cereal, is negatively impacting the Post Consumer Brands segment [3]. Positive Aspects - The Foodservice segment is experiencing robust demand from restaurants and institutional clients, with revenue estimates for this segment at $585 million, showing year-over-year growth from $554.8 million [4]. - Effective pricing strategies and a focus on premium product offerings are helping to mitigate higher input costs, supporting overall performance [5]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a potential earnings beat for Post Holdings, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +3.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6].

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings (POST) is well-positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, having a strong history of exceeding earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 22.34% [1][5]. Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Post Holdings achieved earnings of $1.73 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.49 per share, resulting in a surprise of 16.11% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company was expected to report earnings of $1.19 per share but delivered $1.53 per share, leading to a surprise of 28.57% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Post Holdings, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +7.20%, indicating analysts' bullish sentiment regarding the company's earnings prospects [5][8]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, as stocks with this combination have a nearly 70% success rate in exceeding consensus estimates [6][8]. Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions, which may be more accurate than earlier predictions [7]. - A negative Earnings ESP reduces predictive power but does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss, emphasizing the importance of checking this metric before quarterly releases [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. will hold a conference call on May 9, 2025, to discuss its financial results for Q2 of fiscal year 2025 and provide an outlook for the fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Call Details - The conference call is scheduled for May 9, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. ET [1]. - Financial results for Q2 will be released after market close on May 8, 2025 [2]. - Interested parties can join the call by dialing (800) 445-7795 in the U.S. or (785) 424-1699 internationally, using conference ID POSTQ225 [2]. Group 2: Replay Information - A replay of the conference call will be available until May 16, 2025, by dialing (800) 753-6121 in the U.S. or (402) 220-2676 internationally [3]. - A webcast replay will also be accessible for a limited time on Post's website [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Post Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company based in St. Louis, Missouri, with operations in various food categories [4]. - The company includes brands such as Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Michael Foods, and Bob Evans Farms, focusing on ready-to-eat cereals, pet food, and refrigerated foods [4]. - Post is involved in the private brand food category through its investment in 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. [4].

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is currently trading at $114.82, above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating strong momentum and positive investor sentiment [1][3] - The stock has increased by 6.4% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 1.6% and the S&P 500's decline of 10.4% [3] - The company is focusing on acquisitions to expand its customer base, reporting $60.8 million in net sales from acquisitions in Q1 fiscal 2025 [6] Financial Performance - The Foodservice segment reported a net sales increase of 8.7%, reaching $616.6 million, driven by strong demand in key product categories [7] - Average net pricing increased by 3% in Q1 fiscal 2025, helping to counter inflationary pressures [8] - The Post Consumer Brands segment faced challenges, with net sales declining by 2.5% year over year to $963.9 million, primarily due to weakness in pet food and cereal categories [9] Strategic Developments - The company announced plans to shut down two cereal production plants by year-end to align production with demand [10] - The Refrigerated Retail segment experienced a decline in net sales and volumes by 5.1% and 4.4%, respectively, despite some favorable performance in sausage volumes [11] - SG&A costs increased by 2.7% to $331.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2025, raising concerns about ongoing cost pressures [12] Valuation and Investment Strategy - Post Holdings is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.56X, above the industry average of 16.09X, suggesting a premium valuation [13] - Despite facing challenges, the company shows solid momentum driven by strategic acquisitions and effective pricing actions, indicating potential for long-term growth [17]

Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is shutting down two of its cereal manufacturing plants — one in Cobourg, Ontario, and the other in Sparks, Nevada — by the end of 2025. This strategic decision comes as the demand for ready-to-eat cereal continues to decline, prompting the company to cut excess production capacity and streamline operations. The closures may impact roughly 300 employees.Post Holdings plans to transfer production to other facilities within its Post Consumer Brands network. The move is aimed at impr ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy focused on small cap companies, highlighting the importance of identifying mispriced securities through understanding financial drivers and utilizing DCF model valuation [1]. Group 1 - The investment strategy is not confined to traditional categories such as value, dividend, or growth investing, but rather considers all prospects of a stock to assess risk-to-reward [1].

Core Insights - Zacks Premium provides tools for investors to enhance their stock market engagement and confidence [1][2] Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores are indicators that rate stocks based on value, growth, and momentum methodologies, helping investors identify stocks likely to outperform the market in the next 30 days [3][4] - Each stock is rated from A to F, with A indicating the highest potential for outperformance [4] Value Score - The Value Score identifies attractive and discounted stocks using ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [4] Growth Score - The Growth Score focuses on a stock's future prospects and financial health, analyzing projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [5] Momentum Score - The Momentum Score helps investors capitalize on price trends, using factors like one-week price change and monthly earnings estimate changes [6] VGM Score - The VGM Score combines the three Style Scores to identify stocks with the best value, growth, and momentum characteristics [7] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to guide investors in building successful portfolios [8] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically produced an average annual return of +25.41%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [9] Stock Selection Strategy - To maximize returns, investors should focus on stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B [11] - Stocks with lower ranks but high Style Scores may still pose risks due to downward earnings forecasts [12] Company Spotlight: Post Holdings - Post Holdings is a consumer-packaged goods holding company involved in various food categories and has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) with a VGM Score of A [13] - The company has a Momentum Style Score of B, with shares increasing by 6.2% over the past four weeks and a consensus earnings estimate of $6.41 per share for fiscal 2025 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings (POST) is identified as a strong value stock with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and an A grade for Value, indicating it is likely undervalued in the current market [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for POST is 1.66, which is lower than the industry average of 1.96, suggesting a solid valuation compared to peers [4]. - The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for POST stands at 0.81, compared to the industry's average of 0.97, indicating that POST may be undervalued based on sales performance [5]. - The Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF) ratio for POST is 8.29, significantly lower than the industry average of 16.10, further supporting the notion that POST is undervalued [6]. Earnings Outlook - The strength of POST's earnings outlook, combined with its favorable valuation metrics, positions it as an impressive value stock at the moment [7].