Core Insights - Wall Street analysts forecast Post Holdings (POST) will report quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25.5% [1] - Anticipated revenues are projected to be $2.25 billion, showing an increase of 11.8% compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 5.1% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are significant indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock [3] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- Weetabix' at $141.04 million, a change of +0.7% year over year [5] - 'Net Sales- Post Consumer Brands' is expected to reach $1.24 billion, indicating an increase of +18% from the previous year [5] - 'Net Sales- Foodservice' is projected at $637.73 million, reflecting a +7% change from the prior year [6] - 'Net Sales- Refrigerated Retail' is estimated to be $232.50 million, showing a +2.7% increase from the year-ago quarter [6] Adjusted EBITDA Estimates - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Post Consumer Brands' is expected to reach $227.48 million, up from $203.70 million in the same quarter last year [7] - The consensus for 'Adjusted EBITDA- Weetabix' stands at $33.75 million, compared to $32.40 million a year ago [7] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Foodservice' is projected at $127.83 million, an increase from $107.50 million in the previous year [7] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Refrigerated Retail' is expected to be $36.63 million, up from $31.60 million last year [8] Stock Performance - Shares of Post Holdings have changed by +0.8% in the past month, compared to a +1.5% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to mirror overall market performance in the near future [8]

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is expected to report an increase in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenue estimates at approximately $2.25 billion, reflecting an 11.8% year-over-year growth [1] - The earnings consensus has risen to $1.92 per share, indicating a 25.5% increase compared to the previous year [2] Revenue Drivers - The anticipated performance is bolstered by the full-quarter inclusion of 8th Avenue, enhancing portfolio scale and category penetration, which is expected to offset normalization in other business areas [3] - Seasonal strength from the back-to-school period is likely to contribute positively to cereal volumes, further supporting revenue growth [3] Operational Performance - Cold-chain operations have shown improved momentum, particularly in egg and potato volumes, alongside healthy breakfast traffic from end customers [4] - Cost-optimization efforts across segments are expected to strengthen the bottom line, with better cost performance noted in grocery and pet segments, as well as efficiency improvements in Refrigerated Retail [5] Foodservice Segment - The foodservice segment is projected to be a significant earnings contributor, with revenues estimated at $637.7 million, representing a 7% year-over-year growth, supported by stabilized egg supply and improved operational flow [6] Guidance and Outlook - Management has raised the full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to a range of $1.50 billion to $1.52 billion, suggesting flat to slightly above growth for the fiscal fourth quarter compared to the third quarter [7] - Despite a Zacks Rank of 3 and a negative Earnings ESP of -3.00%, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic [8]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Post Holdings, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates, which could significantly impact stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Post Holdings is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +25.5% [3]. - Revenue is projected to be $2.25 billion, an increase of 11.8% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 5.1% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][12]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Post Holdings is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.00% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with a strong predictive power for positive readings [9][10]. - A combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a strong Zacks Rank increases the likelihood of an earnings beat, but Post Holdings currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions [10][12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Post Holdings exceeded the expected earnings of $1.67 per share, achieving actual earnings of $2.03, resulting in a surprise of +21.56% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Conclusion - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, various factors could influence stock movement, and Post Holdings does not currently appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings surprise [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. will hold a conference call on November 21, 2025, to discuss its fourth-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025 and provide an outlook for fiscal year 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Call Details - The conference call is scheduled for November 21, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. ET, featuring key executives including the CEO and CFO [1]. - Financial results for the fourth quarter will be released after market close on November 20, 2025 [2]. - Interested parties can join the call by dialing specific numbers for the U.S. and international participants, with a conference identification number provided [3]. Group 2: Replay Information - A replay of the conference call will be available until November 28, 2025, with specific dialing instructions for U.S. and international listeners [4]. - A webcast replay will also be accessible for a limited time on Post's website [4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Post Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company based in St. Louis, Missouri, with operations in various food categories [5]. - The company includes brands such as Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Michael Foods, and Bob Evans Farms, with a strong presence in ready-to-eat cereals, pet food, and refrigerated foods [5].

Core Insights - Post Holdings (NYSE: POST) is enhancing its M&A strategy, indicating a distinctive approach to capital allocation that prioritizes share repurchase over dividends and exhibits a higher tolerance for leverage [1]. Group 1: M&A Strategy - Post Holdings is adding an interesting chapter to its M&A strategy, reflecting its commitment to growth through acquisitions [1]. Group 2: Capital Allocation - The company has a unique capital allocation strategy that emphasizes share repurchase rather than dividends, showcasing its focus on returning value to shareholders [1]. - Post Holdings demonstrates a higher tolerance for leverage, which may indicate a willingness to take on more debt to finance its growth initiatives [1].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of efficiency ratios as indicators of a company's financial health and operational efficiency [1] Efficiency Ratios - **Receivables Turnover**: This ratio measures a company's ability to extend credit and collect debts, with a higher ratio indicating better performance [2] - **Asset Utilization**: This ratio assesses how effectively a company converts its assets into sales, with higher values suggesting greater efficiency [3] - **Inventory Turnover**: This ratio indicates a company's ability to manage inventory relative to its cost of goods sold, with higher values reflecting better inventory management [4] - **Operating Margin**: This ratio measures the efficiency of a company in controlling operating expenses relative to sales, with higher values indicating better expense management [5] Screening Process - A screening process was applied to identify stocks with efficiency ratios above industry averages, narrowing down from over 7,906 stocks to 18 [7] - The screening criteria included turnover ratios, asset utilization, and operating margin, along with a favorable Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [6][8] Selected Companies - **Post Holdings (POST)**: A consumer-packaged goods holding company with a positive earnings surprise of 21.4% [7] - **BuildABear Workshop (BBW)**: A leading interactive retail-entertainment company with a positive earnings surprise of 21.3% [9] - **Equity Bancshares (EQBK)**: A financial services provider with a positive earnings surprise of 17.9% [10] - **Ardmore Shipping (ASC)**: Engaged in the ownership and operation of tankers, with a positive earnings surprise of 9.6% [11] - **Sally Beauty (SBH)**: An international retailer of beauty supplies with a positive earnings surprise of 8.3% [12]

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc.'s Foodservice division has shown significant resilience, with Q3 2025 net sales increasing by 18.6% to $698.5 million, driven by a 4.5% volume increase excluding the PPI acquisition [1][8] - The segment's adjusted EBITDA rose 32% to $159 million, indicating strong operational momentum and its importance to overall company performance [1][4] Sales and Performance - The Foodservice segment's sales growth was supported by temporary avian influenza pricing, solid distribution growth in eggs and potatoes, and consistent contributions from protein shakes [1][2] - Management anticipates that avian influenza pricing will decline by the end of Q4, with egg supply expected to fully recover as the company enters fiscal 2026 [2] Future Outlook - Post Holdings expects the Foodservice segment to achieve a normalized adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $115 million per quarter after the pricing effects subside, indicating a robust cash-generating platform with potential for expansion [3][4] Market Position - The successful integration of strategic acquisitions, such as PPI, has strengthened the Foodservice segment's market position and diversified its product offerings [4] - The segment's growth is further supported by increased breakfast traffic and improved egg availability, contributing to sustained momentum in key product areas [2][4] Valuation - Post Holdings currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 13.31, which is lower than the industry average of 15.92 and the sector average of 17.04, positioning the stock at a modest discount relative to peers [9]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is expected to remain volatile due to uncertainty following a federal appeals court ruling that a significant portion of President Trump's worldwide tariffs is unlawful [1][7] Investment Strategy - To mitigate risks in the uncertain market, investors are advised to consider low-beta stocks such as Post Holdings, Inc. (POST), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME), and Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) [1][7] Company Insights Post Holdings - Post Holdings is restructuring its portfolio, recently announcing the divestment of its 8th Avenue pasta business for $375 million in cash, while retaining its nut butter, granola, and fruit & nut businesses for better alignment with operations and potential cost synergies [6][7] Tencent Music Entertainment - Tencent Music is poised for growth through its expanding music subscription service, boasting over 124 million paying subscribers and 15 million Super VIP members, alongside a booming advertising business supported by new ad formats and key shopping events [7][8] Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals - Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is a leading player in treating recurrent pericarditis with its drug ARCALYST, which is currently the only treatment option available for this condition [9][7]

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. has agreed to divest its pasta business from the recently acquired 8th Avenue Food & Provisions to Richardson (US) Holdings Limited for $375 million in cash, with Richardson assuming approximately $80 million in leaseback financial liabilities, expected to close in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [1][9] Divestiture Details - Post Holdings acquired 8th Avenue on July 1, 2025, and will retain its nut butters, fruit and nut products, and granola businesses, which will be integrated into the Post Consumer Brands segment [2] - The retained businesses are expected to generate $45-$50 million in adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026, with an additional $15 million in annual cost synergies anticipated by year-end [3] Capital Allocation Strategy - Management has approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization effective August 29, 2025, replacing the previous $500 million authorization that was canceled after repurchasing $304.8 million in shares [4][9] Stock Performance - Post Holdings has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and its shares have gained 2.7% over the past three months, contrasting with a 1.9% decline in the industry and a 9.6% increase in the S&P 500 index during the same period [5] Valuation Metrics - The company currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.13X, which is below the industry average of 15.9X and the sector's 17.18X, indicating a modest discount relative to peers and the broader consumer staples sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. has announced the sale of its pasta business from 8th Avenue Food & Provisions to Richardson for $375 million in cash, along with assuming $80 million in leaseback liabilities, expected to close in the first fiscal quarter of 2026 [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves Richardson paying $375 million in cash and assuming approximately $80 million in leaseback financial liabilities [1] - Post acquired 8th Avenue on July 1, 2025, and will retain its nut butters, fruit and nut products, and granola businesses, which are expected to be integrated into the Post Consumer Brands segment [1] Group 2: Financial Expectations - The retained businesses are projected to contribute approximately $45-50 million in Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 before realizing cost synergies, which are expected to reach an annual run rate of about $15 million by the end of fiscal year 2026 [2] - The synergized acquisition multiple for the remaining business is expected to be below 7 times synergized Adjusted EBITDA, consistent with Post's previous acquisition multiple [2] Group 3: Share Repurchase Authorization - On August 27, 2025, Post's Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization, effective from August 29, 2025 [3] - As of August 27, 2025, Post had repurchased approximately $304.8 million under its previous $500 million authorization, which was canceled effective August 28, 2025 [3] Group 4: Non-GAAP Measures - Post uses non-GAAP measures such as Adjusted EBITDA and synergized acquisition multiple to provide transparency and assist investors in understanding the underlying operating performance [5][6] - Adjusted EBITDA represents earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, while the synergized acquisition multiple is calculated based on the net purchase price divided by post-synergies Adjusted EBITDA [5] Group 5: Company Overview - Post Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company with operations in various food categories, including ready-to-eat cereals, pet food, and refrigerated foods [12] - The company is a leader in the North American branded and private label markets, with notable brands such as Weetabix and Bob Evans Farms [12]