Debt and Financial Risks - The company has substantial debt, including convertible senior notes and credit facilities, which may require significant cash flow to service, potentially leading to asset sales, debt restructuring, or equity capital raises if cash flow is insufficient[115] - The company may face challenges in repurchasing convertible notes upon a fundamental change, such as a change of control, due to potential cash flow limitations or financing constraints[118] - Net cash used in operating activities in 2023 was $820.7 million, a decrease from $848.8 million in 2022[394][395][396] - Net cash used in investing activities in 2023 was $2.6 billion, primarily for solar energy systems and components, including a $5.0 million investment in Lunar Energy[397] - Net cash provided by financing activities in 2023 was $3.5 billion, driven by $1.4 billion from fund investors and $2.2 billion from debt[399] - Interest expense, net increased by 46% to $652.9 million in 2023, primarily due to additional non-recourse debt[386] - Other expense, net increased by $324.6 million in 2023, including a $58.7 million loss on an equity investment in Lunar Energy[387] - Income tax benefit decreased by $15.0 million in 2023, primarily due to a higher pre-tax loss and goodwill impairment[388] - As of December 31, 2023, the company had net operating loss carryforwards of $720.7 million for federal and $3.3 billion for state income tax purposes[389] - The company had cash of $678.8 million as of December 31, 2023, with $1.0 billion in new credit facility commitments and $0.8 billion in long-term non-recourse loan commitments[392] - The company has purchase commitments of $366.4 million for photovoltaic modules, inverters, and batteries by the end of Q1 2025[393] - The company recorded a goodwill impairment of $1.2 billion in Q3 2023 due to a sustained decline in stock price[252] - The company has committed and available capital of approximately $386.9 million as of December 31, 2023, for purchasing and installing solar energy systems[402] - The company's U.S. federal NOLs generated after December 31, 2017, total approximately $2.0 billion with indefinite carryover periods[250] - The company may face limitations on using NOLs and tax credits if an "ownership change" occurs under Sections 382 and 383 of the Code[250] - The company's ability to use NOLs and tax credits may be limited under state tax laws, potentially affecting financial performance[250] - The company's financial results may be impacted by changes in accounting principles, affecting comparability with industry peers[249] - The company does not anticipate declaring any cash dividends in the foreseeable future, and investors may need to rely on stock price appreciation for gains[272] - The acquisition of Vivint Solar resulted in dilution to stockholders, with 0.55 shares of common stock issued for each Vivint Solar share[273] - Additional issuances of capital stock or equity-linked securities could lead to further dilution for existing stockholders[273] - The Capped Call transactions are expected to reduce potential dilution from the conversion of Notes, subject to a cap[274] - Option counterparties may modify hedge positions through derivatives or secondary market transactions, potentially affecting the stock price[275] - The impact of these transactions on the stock price will depend on market conditions and cannot be determined at this time[276] Regulatory and Policy Risks - The company's solar service offerings could be adversely impacted by regulatory changes, such as the failure to extend retail net energy metering (NEM) caps or the elimination of policies valuing exported electricity to the grid[126] - Interconnection regulations and utility requirements for advanced inverter functionality could slow installations and increase costs in key markets like Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Colorado, and New Jersey[136] - California moved to a NBT structure on December 15, 2022, reducing the credit for exported electricity to the grid, with new solar customers applying under NBT starting mid-April 2023[127] - California passed SB 379 in fall 2022, requiring cities and counties to implement an online, automated solar permitting platform by September 30, 2023, potentially increasing installation rates[150] - Changes in rate design policies, such as those in Arizona and Utah, could reduce the value of electricity produced by the company's systems and deter potential customers[132] - The company's ability to benefit from ITC bonus credits depends on forthcoming Treasury regulations, with final rules expected in 2024 or early 2025[229] - Future reductions or changes in government incentives like the Commercial ITC and Residential Clean Energy Credit could harm the business by reducing customer demand and investor interest[232][238] - Changes in tax laws or unfavorable interpretations by the IRS could reduce investor willingness to fund solar energy systems, impacting financing and business operations[234][239] - The acquisition of Vivint Solar may trigger the loss of the Solar Exclusion and impose California property taxes, adversely affecting the business[244] - The company relies on state and local tax exemptions, which could expire or be challenged, impacting profitability[242] Supply Chain and Operational Risks - The company faces risks from industry-wide shortages of key components, such as solar panels, batteries, and inverters, which could lead to delays, increased costs, and reduced growth[143] - The company's supply chain could be disrupted by natural disasters, geopolitical unrest, or other events beyond its control, though it does not currently source materials from conflict regions[145] - The company has experienced increased customer cancellations in certain markets due to factors like labor shortages, adverse weather, and extended permitting times, which could negatively impact financial results[149] - The company faces risks related to battery supply chain disruptions, including delays and price volatility due to increased global demand for lithium-ion battery cells[142] - The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, effective June 21, 2022, has affected the company's supply chain and operations, potentially causing delivery and installation delays[144] - The company bears the risk of loss and maintenance costs for solar energy systems sold or leased to investment funds, with potential unforeseen costs from natural disasters[156] - Workforce shortages and operational delays in California due to regulatory limits on electricians qualified to install solar systems, with proposed rules requiring C-10 license holders for certain work[203][204] Market and Customer Risks - Over 45% of the company's solar energy systems were located in California as of December 31, 2023, making the business susceptible to region-specific disruptions[158] - The average FICO score of customers under a Customer Agreement with a monthly payment schedule remained at or above 740 as of December 31, 2023[168] - A significant portion of the company's customer base is in California, where wildfire risks and grid instability are driving demand for solar and battery offerings[205] - The company's quarterly results may fluctuate due to seasonal factors, weather-related delays, and variable incentives revenue, making future performance difficult to predict[219] - The company's brand and reputation depend on delivering high-quality solar services and customer satisfaction, with failures potentially harming growth and referrals[199] - Noncompliance with laws governing customer interactions could lead to negative publicity, claims, investigations, and litigation, impacting financial performance[210] Legal and Compliance Risks - The company relies on third-party warranties and general liability insurance for product liability claims, but any significant claims could result in monetary damages, adverse publicity, and reputational harm[157] - The company's direct-to-home sales model is vulnerable to changes in laws and regulations governing direct sales and marketing, which could impose additional restrictions and increase compliance costs[161] - Compliance with OSHA and safety regulations is costly, and noncompliance could result in penalties, operational delays, and reputational damage[213] - Legal proceedings and regulatory inquiries could result in significant costs, damage awards, or changes in business practices, adversely affecting financial results and reputation[208][209] - Comprehensive data privacy laws in states like California impose fines up to $7,500 per intentional violation and allow private litigants to recover significant statutory damages, increasing legal risks and compliance costs[192] - Generative AI and emerging technologies pose risks of unintended biases, accuracy issues, and data privacy breaches, potentially leading to negative impacts on business operations and financial conditions[197] Growth and Expansion Risks - The company's growth strategy includes expanding into new markets and product offerings, such as EV chargers, which could strain management, operational, and financial infrastructure[153] - The company's growth depends on hiring and retaining skilled employees, particularly in solar installation, with labor shortages potentially increasing costs and delaying projects[200] - The company relies on tax equity investment funds to finance solar service offerings, and inability to monetize tax benefits could impact economic viability[224] - Product development risks include potential failures in new products or market penetration, which could adversely affect business and financial conditions[214] - The company has incurred net losses and may continue to do so due to expansion costs, with profitability dependent on revenue growth and cost management[215] Data Privacy and Technology Risks - The company processes personal data and sensitive information, subjecting it to stringent and evolving data privacy and security obligations, which require significant resources to comply with[189] - Information technology systems, including AI, are critical to the company's competitive strategy, and failure to innovate could adversely impact its financial condition[194] - The company faces risks from third-party service providers' potential security incidents, which could lead to adverse consequences despite contractual obligations[187] Stock Price and Market Risks - The company's stock price volatility is influenced by factors such as market fluctuations, competition, and regulatory changes[256] - The company's stock price could decline due to sales of substantial shares in the public market or perceptions of such sales[259]

The most recent trading session ended with Sunrun (RUN) standing at $17, reflecting a +1.01% shift from the previouse trading day's closing. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.58%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.91%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.3%.Coming into today, shares of the solar energy products distributor had gained 23.57% in the past month. In that same time, the Oils-Energy sector lost 0.35%, while the S&P 500 gained 4.61%.Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance o ...

Sunrun (RUN) closed at $15.44 in the latest trading session, marking a +0.85% move from the prior day. The stock exceeded the S&P 500, which registered a gain of 0.06% for the day. At the same time, the Dow added 0.13%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.24%.Prior to today's trading, shares of the solar energy products distributor had lost 6.13% over the past month. This has lagged the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 1.2% and the S&P 500's gain of 6.45% in that time.Investors will be eagerly watching for the p ...

The global shift towards sustainability and the burgeoning green energy revolution is undeniably reshaping the world’s energy landscape. With governments worldwide rallying to slash global greenhouse gas emissions and pivot towards renewable energy sources, the future seems bright for green energy investments. Amid this transformative era, identifying green energy stocks to sell becomes a pivotal strategy for investors navigating this burgeoning sector. While the promise of green energy stocks is undeniable ...

Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) and SunPower (SPWR) stock prices have been in a strong downtrend as concerns about the solar industry continues. The two have crashed by over 40% in the past 12 months and there are concerns that the situation will get worse as interest rates remain higher for longer.Sunrun vs SunPower stock chart Is the clean energy bubble bursting?Copy link to sectionSunPower and SunRun are some of the biggest players in the solar energy industry in the United States. These companies, together with th ...

Earnings Release and Conference Call Scheduled for February 21, 2024 Company Also Issues Statement Regarding Customer Communication Celebrating 2023 Achievements and Environmental Impact SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 12, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) today announced that it will issue its fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday, February 21, 2024. A conference call has been scheduled to discuss these earnings results at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time. The conferen ...

Earnings Release and Conference Call Scheduled for February 21, 2024 Company Also Issues Statement Regarding Customer Communication Celebrating 2023 Achievements and Environmental Impact SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 12, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sunrun (Nasdaq: RUN) today announced that it will issue its fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday, February 21, 2024. A conference call has been scheduled to discuss these earnings results at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time. The confere ...

Justin PagetThesis I have been watching several players in the solar industry in hopes of making a long-term invest. However, most of the panel manufacturers and installers are saddled with low gross margins and do not currently appear to be capable of becoming attractive long-term compounders. Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) caught my attention because of their impressive revenue growth, but their financial situation is far too unattractive for me to seriously consider them as an investment. They have been sh ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company raised $715 million through the largest residential solar securitization, with a credit spread of 240 basis points, a 25 basis point improvement from the previous securitization in May [3] - Total cash at the end of Q3 was $952 million, an increase of $31 million compared to the prior quarter [87] - The company installed 258 megawatts of solar capacity in Q3, a 1% increase YoY, and added 33,800 customers, including 29,300 subscribers [100] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) stood at over $1.2 billion, up 28% YoY, with an average contract life remaining of nearly 18 years [101] - Net subscriber value was $11,030 in Q3, with total value generated at $323 million [127] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Storage attachment rates reached over 33% of installations in Q3, up from 15% at the start of the year, with expectations for further growth [59] - The company installed 176 megawatt-hours of storage capacity in Q3, a 131% increase YoY, bringing total network storage capacity to over 1.1 gigawatt-hours [114] - Sales of storage-attached systems grew to over 40% nationally, driving higher installed attachment rates [126] - The company launched a storage retrofit offering with strong early results, expecting meaningful volumes of storage installations in the existing customer base [115] Market Data and Key Metrics - Installations outside of California grew over 25% in Q3 compared to the prior year, while sales also grew at double digits [120] - In California, storage attachment rates in the direct business were over 85% of sales, closer to 100% in investor-owned utility service territories [62] - The company expects to gain market share in California due to its expertise in storage and subscription offerings [117] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is transitioning to a storage-first strategy, focusing on higher-margin storage products and reducing costs through efficiency improvements [58][63] - The company is prioritizing cash generation over pure solar megawatt growth, adjusting its geographic mix and sales channels to adapt to the new interest rate environment [122] - The company is leveraging its diversified market approach, including an integrated sales force and fulfillment capacity, to insulate itself from irrational behavior in the affiliate partner segment [121] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company expects robust growth in the solar market, which remains underpenetrated, and is focusing on increasing customer value through storage adoption and cost reductions [18] - The company is responding to higher interest rates and difficult market conditions by sharpening its focus on cash generation and sustainable growth [55] - The company expects hardware costs to decline by over 20% or nearly $3,000 per system by the end of next year, driven by rapidly decreasing prices for key components [129] Other Important Information - The company successfully executed a tax equity fund leveraging the new tax credit transferability provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, expecting transferability funds to become a large part of its funding strategy [148] - The company is managing inventory levels, having reduced the inventory balance by $130 million in the last quarter, with another $100 million to $200 million to go to reach target levels [159] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of PG&E's 13% rate increase on pricing strategy in California - The company views the rate increase as making its current offerings more attractive to customers and maintains a flexible pricing strategy to adapt to market conditions [182] Question: Constraints in accessing the tax equity market - The company does not see constraints in accessing the tax equity market and expects transferability funds to become a significant part of its funding strategy [144] Question: Inventory management and hardware procurement strategy - The company is reducing inventory levels and expects to see pricing declines flow through as it works through higher-cost inventory [156][159] Question: Economics of direct ITC monetization vs. traditional tax equity - The company expects the price per credit to increase as more transactions are completed and anticipates preserving value relative to traditional tax equity [179] Question: Normalized volume growth expectations - The company has not provided specific guidance on normalized volume growth but emphasizes the importance of grid services and storage retrofits in driving future value [189]

~1 pts annual impact to solar growth 3Q23 Earnings Presentation 08 Celebrating Our People Top Install Crew in Q3 Based on Performance, Safety and Customer Experience Tampa, FL "Unstoppables" Crew Fresno, CA Top Sales Team in Q3 Based on leading Storage Attachment Rates, Customer Experience and Sales Productivity 3Q23 Earnings Presentation FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE & OUTLOOK Danny Abajian CFO 010 Sunrun is Building a Base of Customers with Recurring Revenue and Multi-Decade Relationships 903,270 +19% Year-over-Y ...