Company Overview - Sunrun is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.27 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +79.7% [3] - Revenues are anticipated to be $538.42 million, which is a 4.2% increase from the same quarter last year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.24% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for February 27, and the stock may rise if actual results exceed expectations [2] - Conversely, if results fall short, the stock may decline [2] - The Earnings ESP for Sunrun is -174.62%, suggesting analysts have become bearish on the company's earnings prospects [10][11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Sunrun was expected to post a loss of $0.16 per share but actually reported a loss of $0.37, resulting in a surprise of -131.25% [12] - Over the past four quarters, Sunrun has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13] Industry Context - In the Zacks Solar industry, First Solar is expected to report earnings of $4.69 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of +44.3% [17] - First Solar's revenue is projected to be $1.47 billion, up 26.9% from the previous year [17] - The consensus EPS estimate for First Solar has been revised 3% lower, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.72% [18]

Core Insights - Sunrun has established itself as the leading provider of clean energy as a subscription service, with a significant portfolio of virtual power plants (VPPs) that supported power grids across the U.S. in 2024, achieving a combined peak capacity of nearly 80 megawatts, surpassing many traditional fossil-fuel power plants [1][3][6] Group 1: Virtual Power Plant Initiatives - In 2024, over 20,000 Sunrun customers participated in 16 VPP programs across nine states and territories, providing stored solar energy during critical energy events [2][4] - The CalReady program in California involved over 16,000 customers, delivering an average of 48 megawatts of stored solar energy, peaking at 54 megawatts, enough to power approximately 48,000 homes [5] - The PowerOn Puerto Rico program saw over 4,000 customers providing backup energy during more than 70 energy shortfall events, helping to prevent rolling blackouts [5] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - Sunrun partnered with Tesla Electric and Vistra in Texas to leverage home batteries for peak consumption reserves, offering customers an annual payment of $400 per Powerwall [5] - In New York, Sunrun activated the state's largest residential VPP, providing stored solar energy during peak demand events, with customers receiving free or discounted home batteries [5] - The company launched the first bidirectional electric vehicle-to-home VPP in Maryland, utilizing customer-owned Ford F-150 Lightnings, allowing participants to earn several hundred dollars by sharing energy [5] Group 3: Market Position and Growth - Sunrun's storage-first approach has positioned it as one of the largest distributed power providers in the U.S., serving as a vital resource for utilities and grid operators [6] - Customer enrollment in Sunrun's power-sharing programs grew approximately 100% year-over-year in 2024, indicating strong market demand [6] - The company aims to monetize more battery assets and secure additional recurring revenue streams in 2025 [4][6]

Core Insights - Sunrun's virtual power plants (VPPs) supported power grids with a combined peak capacity of nearly 80 megawatts in 2024, surpassing many traditional fossil-fuel power plants [1][3] - Over 20,000 customers participated in 16 VPP programs across nine states, providing stored solar energy during critical energy events [2][4] - The company is positioned to enhance grid reliability, lower emissions, and reduce costs for electricity customers [4][6] Group 1: Virtual Power Plant Performance - Sunrun's VPP initiatives in California delivered an average of 48 megawatts of stored solar energy, peaking at 54 megawatts, enough to power approximately 48,000 homes [5] - In Puerto Rico, over 4,000 customers' batteries provided backup energy during more than 70 energy shortfall events, helping to avoid rolling blackouts [5] - The Texas program, in partnership with Tesla Electric, offers customers an annual payment of $400 per Powerwall, while Sunrun benefits from recurring revenue [5] Group 2: Strategic Importance and Market Position - The CEO highlighted the increasing demand for electricity and the inability of utilities to keep pace, positioning Sunrun as a critical resource for grid support [3] - Sunrun's storage-first approach has led to a 100% year-over-year growth in customer enrollment in power-sharing programs [6] - The company aims to monetize more battery assets and secure additional revenue streams in 2025 [4][6] Group 3: Innovative Programs and Collaborations - Sunrun launched the first bidirectional electric vehicle-to-home VPP in Maryland, utilizing customer-owned Ford F-150 Lightnings [5] - Collaborations with utilities like Orange & Rockland in New York have activated the state's largest residential VPP, enhancing energy supply during peak demand [5] - The company's innovative solutions are designed to democratize access to renewable energy and provide energy security for customers [8]

Core Insights - Sunrun has successfully priced its first securitization transaction of 2025, marking the second largest in the industry's history, showcasing strong execution in capital markets [2][3] - The transaction includes three classes of A rated notes and one class of BB rated notes, with a total of $628.5 million in Class A notes and a retention of Class B notes [3][4] - The Class A-1 and Class A-2A notes were oversubscribed, with coupons of 5.99% and 6.41% respectively, reflecting a 42 basis points improvement from the previous securitization in September 2024 [3] Securitization Details - The Class A-1 notes amount to $102.0 million, while Class A-2A notes total $276.5 million, and Class A-2B notes are privately placed at $250.0 million [3] - The weighted average spread for Class A notes is 192 basis points, with an expected weighted average life of 4.58 years for Class A-1 and 7.12 years for Class A-2A [3] - The anticipated repayment date for both classes of notes is April 30, 2032, with a final maturity date of April 30, 2060 [3] Asset Backing and Portfolio - The notes are backed by a diversified portfolio of 39,458 systems across 20 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, covering 83 utility service territories [5] - The weighted average customer FICO score for the portfolio is 738, indicating a strong credit quality [5] Strategic Partnerships - ATLAS SP Partners served as the sole structuring agent and joint bookrunner for the securitization, highlighting a strong partnership with Sunrun [6][7] - The collaboration aims to enhance the efficiency of large transactions in the capital markets, supporting the growth of the solar industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - Sunrun has successfully priced its first securitization of 2025, marking the second largest transaction in the industry's history, showcasing its strong execution in capital markets and ability to access competitively priced capital to support growth [2][3]. Securitization Details - The securitization consists of three classes of A rated notes (Class A-1, Class A-2A, and Class A-2B) and one class of BB rated notes (Class B) [3]. - Class A-1 notes total $102.0 million with a coupon of 5.99%, while Class A-2A notes total $276.5 million with a coupon of 6.41% [3]. - Class A-1 notes priced at a spread of 170 basis points and a yield of 6.035%, while Class A-2A notes priced at a spread of 200 basis points and a yield of 6.465% [3]. - The weighted average spread for Class A notes improved by 42 basis points compared to the previous securitization in September 2024 [3]. - The initial balance of Class A notes represents a 65.3% advance rate on the Securitization Share of ADSAB [3]. Portfolio and Customer Metrics - The notes are backed by a diversified portfolio of 39,458 systems across 20 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, covering 83 utility service territories [5]. - The weighted average customer FICO score is 738, indicating a strong credit profile among customers [5]. Transaction Timeline and Structure - The transaction is expected to close by February 5, 2025 [5]. - Sunrun plans to raise additional subordinated subsidiary-level non-recourse financing secured by distributions from the retained Class B notes, which is anticipated to increase the cumulative advance rate [4]. Involvement of Financial Institutions - ATLAS SP Partners served as the sole structuring agent and joint bookrunner alongside BofA Securities, Morgan Stanley, MUFG, and TD Securities [6].

Core Viewpoint - Sunrun is set to release its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report on February 27, 2025, after market close [1] Group 1: Earnings Release Details - The earnings report will be followed by a conference call scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time [2] - The conference call will be accessible via the Sunrun Investor Relations website and through a toll-free phone number [2] - An audio replay and transcript of the conference call will be available on the Sunrun Investor Relations website for approximately one month [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Sunrun Inc. has been a leader in the solar industry since 2007, focusing on removing financial barriers to renewable energy access [3] - The company offers residential solar and storage solutions as a subscription service with no upfront costs [3] - Sunrun's services aim to provide energy security and predictability while benefiting communities and the electric grid [3]

Stock Performance - Sunrun's stock ended at $9 57, marking a -1 64% decline from the previous day's close, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0 12% [1] - Over the past month, Sunrun's shares have depreciated by 2 6%, outperforming the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 8 42% and the S&P 500's loss of 3 45% [1] Earnings and Revenue Projections - Sunrun is projected to report earnings of -$0 24 per share in its upcoming earnings report, representing a year-over-year growth of 81 95% [2] - The company is expected to report revenue of $547 77 million, reflecting a 6 04% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates and Revisions - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Sunrun reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the company's outlook [3] - Estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum, as highlighted by the Zacks Rank system [4] Zacks Rank and Industry Performance - Sunrun currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with no change in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] - The Solar industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 82, placing it in the top 33% of all industries [5] - Industries in the top 50% of the Zacks Industry Rank outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]

Company Performance - The stock of Sunrun (RUN) has decreased by 12.38% over the past month, underperforming the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 8.03% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.05% [1] - Sunrun's most recent trading day closed at $10.07, reflecting a decline of 0.49% from the previous session, while the S&P 500 experienced a daily loss of 0.04% [6] Earnings Estimates - For the upcoming earnings report, Sunrun is projected to report an EPS of -$0.15, indicating an 88.72% growth compared to the same quarter last year [7] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $561.6 million, representing an 8.71% increase from the same quarter last year [7] Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Sunrun indicate evolving short-term business trends, with upward revisions reflecting analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation capabilities [8] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 34.09% over the past month, and Sunrun currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [9] Industry Overview - The Solar industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 78, placing it in the top 32% of over 250 industries [4] - The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [10]

Core Insights - Sunrun's CEO Mary Powell has been recognized in the TIME100 Climate list for 2024, highlighting her influence in driving business climate action [1] - Under Powell's leadership, Sunrun has added over 400,000 new customers and achieved a nearly 500% increase in battery installations, generating approximately 21 billion kilowatt-hours of solar energy and avoiding nearly 10 million metric tons of carbon emissions [2] Company Growth and Impact - Sunrun has rapidly expanded its customer base and battery installations, with 112,000 new storage customers contributing to significant solar energy generation [2] - The company has become the first residential storage-plus-solar provider to reach over 1 million customers, driven by a strategic shift to a storage-first model [3] Leadership and Vision - Powell's leadership is characterized by a focus on customer experience and innovation, positioning Sunrun to lead in creating a more economical and sustainable energy grid [3] - The vision for Sunrun includes connecting households to clean energy and becoming a multi-product clean energy lifestyle company, benefiting families and communities [4] Recognition and Accolades - Mary Powell has received multiple accolades, including being named to Forbes' 50 Sustainability Leaders 2024 list and the prestigious Rachel Carson Award for environmental impact [4] Company Overview - Sunrun, founded in 2007, is the leading provider of clean energy as a subscription service, offering residential solar and storage solutions with no upfront costs [5] - The company aims to democratize access to renewable energy and enhance energy security for its customers while benefiting communities and the electric grid [5]

3Q 2024 Financial Results November 7, 2024 Safe harbor & forward looking statements This communication contains forward-looking statements related to Sunrun (the "Company") within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to: the Company's financial and operating guidance and expectations; the Comp ...