Group 1 - The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW) is considered one of the best debt-free stocks to buy currently, with TD Cowen raising its price target to $135 from $134 while maintaining a Buy rating [1] - Raymond James analysts also reiterated their Buy rating on Schwab, increasing the price target from $110 to $114, indicating confidence in the company's ability to manage net margin pressure from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - The stock has a strong Buy consensus, with a 1-year price target suggesting nearly 18% upside, reflecting a positive financial outlook for the company [4] Group 2 - TD Cowen remains optimistic about Traditional Asset Managers and is adopting a selective approach focused on higher-conviction names, while still maintaining exposure to alternative asset managers [2] - The company operates as a savings and loan holding company, providing a range of financial services including wealth management, securities brokerage, banking, asset management, custody, and financial advisory services both in the U.S. and internationally [4]

Economic Policy and Market Impact - President Trump's upcoming speech is expected to outline economic priorities and policy initiatives, with a focus on tax policy changes, infrastructure spending, regulatory approaches, and trade policy, particularly regarding China [1][2] - The speech's timing amid earnings season and critical economic data releases creates a complex backdrop for market reactions, as political rhetoric and corporate results will compete for investor attention [1][2] Economic Data Releases - Thursday will see a significant convergence of economic data, including the Q3 GDP revision and the November Core PCE Price Index, both released at 8:30am, which could lead to market volatility as investors assess growth and inflation data simultaneously [4] - The GDP revision will provide insights into consumer spending, business investment, and net exports, while the Core PCE Price Index will be crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Company Earnings Insights - Netflix's earnings report will be critical for understanding the streaming industry's economics, including subscriber growth sustainability and content investment returns, especially in light of competition from platforms like Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video [5] - Intel's earnings will be a key indicator of its manufacturing transformation and competitive positioning in the semiconductor market, while GE Aerospace's results will provide insights into commercial aviation demand and defense spending trends [7] - Johnson & Johnson's earnings will offer perspectives on pharmaceutical demand and healthcare spending trends, while Procter & Gamble's results will assess consumer resilience in personal care and household products [8]

Core Insights - Charles Schwab (SCHW) is expected to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on January 21, with anticipated year-over-year increases in earnings and revenues [1][9] - The company has a strong earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 6.6% [2] Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.34 per share, indicating a 32.7% rise from the previous year [16] - The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is $6.24 billion, suggesting a 17.2% increase from the prior-year quarter [17] Revenue Drivers - Trading revenues are projected to rise, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate set at $1.03 billion, reflecting a 17.6% increase year-over-year [4] - Net interest revenues (NIR) are expected to reach $3.13 billion, marking a 23.7% increase from the previous year [6] - Asset management and administration fees are estimated at $1.70 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 12.5% due to strong equity market performance [7] Market Conditions - Client activity and market volatility were solid in the fourth quarter, influenced by factors such as the longest U.S. government shutdown, a dip in consumer sentiment, easing monetary policy, and a dominant AI theme [3] - The average interest-earning assets for the quarter are estimated at $434 billion, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 1.9% [4] Expense Outlook - Operating expenses are expected to remain elevated due to regulatory spending, strategic acquisitions, and efforts to enhance business efficiency [8] - Management anticipates expenses for 2025 to rise by approximately 5.25% or slightly higher [10] Strategic Developments - In November, Schwab announced an agreement to acquire Forge Global Holdings, Inc. for $660 million, expected to close in the first half of 2026 [11] - This acquisition aligns with Schwab's strategy to enhance private market capabilities for retail and advisor clients [13]

Analysts on Wall Street project that The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) will announce quarterly earnings of $1.36 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 34.7% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $6.3 billion, increasing 18.3% from the same quarter last year.Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted upward by 3.3% to its current level. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projection ...

Core Viewpoint - The Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) offers lower expense ratios and broader diversification compared to the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR), while IJR provides a slightly higher yield and less severe drawdowns in recent years [2][9]. Cost & Size Comparison - SCHA has an expense ratio of 0.04%, while IJR has a slightly higher expense ratio of 0.06% [4][5]. - As of January 12, 2026, SCHA reported a one-year return of 19.9%, compared to IJR's 13.5% [4]. - IJR has a larger asset under management (AUM) of $88.0 billion, while SCHA has $19.3 billion [4]. Performance & Risk Analysis - Over the past five years, IJR experienced a maximum drawdown of 28.02%, while SCHA had a drawdown of 30.79% [6]. - A $1,000 investment in IJR would have grown to $1,373 over five years, compared to $1,351 for SCHA [6]. Portfolio Composition - SCHA tracks a broad small-cap index with 1,742 stocks, primarily in financial services (18%), industrials (17%), and technology (15%) [7]. - IJR holds a more concentrated portfolio of 632 companies, with similar sector weights in financial services (18%), industrials (17%), and technology (14%) [8]. Investment Implications - Both SCHA and IJR are viable options for investors looking for small-cap market exposure, having produced similar total returns over one, five, and ten years [10]. - Currently, both ETFs trade at a discount, with earnings multiples of 18 times, compared to the S&P 500's 28 times [10].

Core Insights - The investing landscape is rapidly evolving, with Robinhood Markets and Charles Schwab competing for market share in digital investing and wealth management [1][2] Robinhood's Position - Robinhood has transformed retail investing with its tech-first, commission-free trading platform, attracting 13.8 million monthly active users in Q3 2025 [3][4] - The company is expanding internationally, acquiring PT Buana Capital Sekuritas and PT Pedagang Aset Kripto to enter Indonesia and offering tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs across 31 EU/EEA countries [4] - Robinhood is also venturing into prediction markets by acquiring a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange, planning to launch a dedicated futures and derivatives exchange by 2026 [5] - The company is evolving into a full financial ecosystem with new offerings like IRAs, crypto wallets, and cash cards, enhancing user engagement and revenue per customer [6] - Operating on a lean, cloud-based infrastructure allows Robinhood to maintain low costs and efficient trade execution, which is expected to drive margins as the user base grows [7] Schwab's Position - Charles Schwab holds nearly $12 trillion in total client assets, benefiting from strong client relationships and recurring revenue streams, solidified by its acquisition of TD Ameritrade in 2020 [8][10] - Schwab is expanding its physical presence by opening 16 new branches and hiring over 400 branch-related roles, while also acquiring Forge Global Holdings, Inc. for approximately $660 million [9] - The company has a diversified revenue base, with rising net interest income (NII) due to increased interest rates, and a focus on repaying high-cost bank funding [11] - Schwab is modernizing its platform to attract younger investors, planning to launch spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading by mid-2026 [13] Earnings Estimates - For Robinhood, the Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates an earnings growth of 86.5% for 2025 and 20.2% for 2026, with current estimates at $2.00 for 2025 and $2.40 for 2026 [14][15] - Schwab's earnings estimates suggest growth of 48.6% for 2025 and 16.4% for 2026, with current estimates at $4.83 for 2025 and $5.62 for 2026 [17][19] Stock Performance and Valuation - In 2025, Robinhood's stock surged by 203.5%, significantly outperforming Schwab's 35% gain, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards Robinhood [10][20] - Robinhood is trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 12.96X, while Schwab is at 7.76X, suggesting Schwab is trading at a discount compared to Robinhood [21][22] Investment Considerations - Robinhood is viewed as a higher-risk, higher-reward option for 2026, with its rapid evolution into a broader fintech platform and international expansion [23][24] - Despite its high valuation, Robinhood's growth potential and earnings estimates trending higher may justify investment, while Schwab's established position and diversified revenue model provide stability [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the decision by OPEC to cut production may limit the short-term decline in oil prices, while long-term futures contracts could see significant drops due to anticipated supply increases [1] - The impact of Venezuela's heavy crude oil entering the market will take time, potentially years, which may result in less influence on near-term contracts [1] - Global market reactions to the unstable situation in Venezuela have been relatively stable so far, with future developments largely dependent on U.S. intervention and responses from other major oil-producing countries [1] Group 2 - Venezuela's oil production has decreased from over 3 million barrels per day to below 1 million barrels, while U.S. production stands at 13 million barrels per day [1] - Despite Venezuela not being a major oil exporter, concerns over potential commodity impacts may lead to continued oil price volatility [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions are expected to be minimally affected by the situation, but a decline in oil prices could help alleviate current inflation issues and create conditions for looser monetary policy, which would be a positive signal for the stock market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing instability in Venezuela, global market reactions have been relatively stable so far, with future market movements largely dependent on the extent of U.S. intervention in Venezuela, responses from other major oil-producing countries, and potential volatility in the energy market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The global market's response to the Venezuelan situation has been stable, indicating resilience amid geopolitical tensions [1] - Historical data suggests that geopolitical events rarely have a long-term impact on market performance [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Uncertainty surrounding the Venezuelan situation may influence the direction of long-term government bond yields, potentially leading to stock market fluctuations [1] - A decline in oil prices, if it occurs, could lower gasoline prices, alleviating current inflation issues and possibly creating conditions for more accommodative monetary policy [1] - Under unchanged conditions, this scenario would be a positive signal for the stock market [1]

Goldman Sachs and BNY Pershing just swiped right on client referrals. BNY, the world’s largest custodian, is preparing to launch a matchmaking program that would pair RIAs that use its services with retail customers, according to a December filing. Its Advisor Match service will compete with well-established services from competitors like Fidelity and Charles Schwab. Not to be outdone, Goldman Sachs also entered the referral fray, offering its retail clients to major RIA customers; Creative Planning, Merc ...

Core Viewpoint - Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates and is well-positioned for continued success in upcoming quarterly reports [1]. Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Charles Schwab achieved earnings of $1.31 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24 per share, resulting in a surprise of 5.65% [2]. - For the previous quarter, the company was expected to report earnings of $1.09 per share but delivered $1.14 per share, yielding a surprise of 4.59% [2]. Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable shift in earnings estimates for Charles Schwab, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5]. - The current Earnings ESP for Charles Schwab is +3.98%, reflecting recent bullish sentiment from analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [8]. Predictive Metrics - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate being more reflective of recent analyst revisions [7].