Economic Indicators - Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +68,000 in January, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4% [1] - Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.7% year-over-year in January [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are anticipated to decrease by -7,000 to 224,000 [1] - Existing home sales in January are expected to decline by -4.3% month-over-month to 4.16 million [1] - January CPI is expected to rise by +2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI also expected to increase by +2.5% year-over-year [1] Retail Sales and Employment Costs - US December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of expectations of +0.4% [2] - The employment cost index for Q4 rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is the smallest increase in 4.5 years and below the expected +0.8% [2] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes experienced mixed trading, with the Dow Jones reaching a new all-time high while the S&P 500 closed down -0.33% and the Nasdaq down -0.56% [6][5] - The broader market initially found support from weaker-than-expected retail sales and employment cost index reports, which lowered bond yields [5] Earnings Season Insights - Over half of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 78% beating expectations [7] - S&P earnings growth is expected to rise by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [7] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, Q4 earnings are projected to increase by +4.6% [7] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [8] - The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3.5-week low of 4.13%, supported by weaker-than-expected economic reports [9] Sector Performance - AI-infrastructure stocks faced pressure, with Western Digital down more than -7% and other tech stocks also declining [12] - Wealth-management stocks dropped significantly, with Raymond James Financial down more than -8% due to concerns over AI disruption [13] - Homebuilding stocks rose after the drop in mortgage rates, with Toll Brothers up more than +6% [14] Company-Specific Developments - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, below the consensus of 49 cents, leading to a decline of more than -14% [15] - Incyte forecasted dull-year total net product revenue of $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion, causing a drop of more than -8% [16] - Spotify reported a record 38 million monthly active users in Q4, leading to a rise of more than +17% [17]

An artificial intelligence tool aimed at creating tax strategies sparked a selloff in wealth-management stocks Tuesday as investors fear the business could be at risk from automated advice. The innovation puts the wealth-management industry in the crosshairs of AI competition, the way it did for software stocks and private credit firms last week and insurance brokerage shares on Monday. Investors responded precisely the way they did before — by unloading the stocks. Raymond James Financial Inc. dropped 8. ...

嘉信理财股价下跌7.2%，或创下自2025年4月以来的最大单日跌幅。 来源：滚动播报 ...

嘉信理财股价继续下跌，跌至5.7%的盘中低点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) has shown strong stock performance, with a 5.2% increase over the past month and a new 52-week high of $107.27, outperforming the Zacks Finance sector and the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry [1] Financial Performance - The company has consistently exceeded earnings expectations, reporting an EPS of $1.39 against a consensus estimate of $1.36 in its last earnings report [2] - For the current fiscal year, Charles Schwab is projected to achieve earnings of $5.77 per share on revenues of $26.4 billion, reflecting an 18.48% increase in EPS and a 10.37% increase in revenues [3] - The next fiscal year forecasts earnings of $6.7 per share on revenues of $28.79 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of 16.05% in EPS and 9.07% in revenues [3] Valuation Metrics - The stock trades at 18.6 times the current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is above the peer industry average of 16.4 times [7] - On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock trades at 18 times compared to the peer group's average of 14.6 times, with a PEG ratio of 0.87 [7] Style Scores and Zacks Rank - Charles Schwab has a Value Score of B, along with Growth and Momentum Scores of B, resulting in a VGM Score of A [6] - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), supported by rising earnings estimates, indicating potential for future growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly seeking growth stocks that demonstrate above-average growth potential, with Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) identified as a strong candidate due to its favorable growth metrics and Zacks Rank [2][10]. Earnings Growth - Charles Schwab's historical EPS growth rate stands at 6%, but projected EPS growth for this year is significantly higher at 18.5%, surpassing the industry average of 11.4% [5]. Cash Flow Growth - The company exhibits a year-over-year cash flow growth of 22.3%, which exceeds the industry average of 16.4%. Additionally, its annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 12.2%, compared to the industry average of 8.3% [6][7]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - Recent upward revisions in current-year earnings estimates for Charles Schwab indicate a positive trend, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 2.9% over the past month [9]. Overall Assessment - Charles Schwab has achieved a Growth Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2, reflecting its strong growth potential and positive earnings estimate revisions, making it a solid choice for growth investors [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Charles Schwab remains cautious about the gamification of trading, opting not to engage in gambling-related activities, unlike fintechs such as Robinhood and FanDuel [1][4] Group 1: Company Strategy and Growth - Schwab's focus on financial planning and live coaching has attracted younger investors, with Gen-Z clients being 41% more likely to start investing before age 21 compared to previous generations [2] - The average client age at Schwab has decreased by 10 years over the last decade due to its strategic initiatives [2] - Schwab's stock has gained approximately 27% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500, which increased nearly 14% in the same period [5] Group 2: Market Position and Analyst Insights - JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington has maintained an Overweight rating on Schwab's stock, raising the price target to $128, citing a strong finish to 2025 with $164 billion in core new assets in Q4 [6] - Schwab's cautious approach to the prediction market landscape includes plans to integrate insights into event probabilities into its platform, while distinguishing between legitimate economic hedges and pure gaming aspects [3][4]

Market Overview - The market is mixed, with the Dow up 336 points (0.7%) while the NASDAQ is down over 1% [1] - The S&P 500 is down 0.21%, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 is performing better, indicating strength in smaller stocks [1] - The Dow transports have surged 2.5% over the last three days, up nearly 8% since the ISM manufacturing report [1] Sector Performance - Materials sector is leading with a 2.4% increase, followed by real estate and energy sectors, which is up over 15% year-to-date [1] - The healthcare, staples, and financials sectors are also showing gains of more than 1% [1] - The tech sector is under pressure, with significant declines in major stocks like Tesla (down 3%), Broadcom (down 4%), and AMD (down 16%) [1] Earnings Growth Forecast - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 17% earnings growth for the S&P 500 this year, driven by positive operating leverage and improved pricing power [2] - The median stock in the Russell 3000 is experiencing a 13% year-over-year earnings growth, the best in four years [2] Valuation Insights - Current valuation is extended historically, with the median stock in the S&P trading at a three-turn discount to the cap-weighted index [2] - Historical data suggests that when earnings growth exceeds 8% and the Fed funds rate declines, market multiples tend to expand 90% of the time [2] Investment Opportunities - Small caps and consumer discretionary sectors are highlighted as areas of opportunity, with the S&P 600 small cap index showing 10% earnings growth, the best since 2022 [2] - Consumer discretionary is favored due to improving unit demand and pricing, alongside a fiscal tailwind of $65 billion expected in 2026 [2] Tech Sector Analysis - Despite recent pressures, the fundamental setup for large-cap tech remains intact, with revenue revisions at 20-year highs [2] - The market is rewarding high capital expenditure to sales behavior, benefiting AI enablers and hyperscalers [2] Crypto Market Dynamics - The crypto market has seen significant volatility, with Bitcoin down approximately 40% from its October highs, raising concerns about leverage and liquidity [5] - Tokenization is expected to gain traction in 2026, with tokenized treasuries and stocks showing substantial growth [6] Ford's EV Strategy - Ford's US vehicle sales dropped about 5% in January, with EV sales collapsing by approximately 70% [5] - The company is working on a universal EV platform expected to be profitable by 2027-2028, while also exploring partnerships with Chinese OEMs [5] Uber's Business Model - Uber reported strong fourth-quarter results, with bookings up 22% and revenue up 20%, but guidance weighed on stock performance [5] - The long-term risk for Uber lies in the evolution of autonomous vehicles and potential market share loss to vendors like Waymo and Tesla [5]

Core Insights - Charles Schwab reported a record year with significant growth across all retail investor segments, achieving $519 billion in net new assets and an 18% increase in total client assets to $11.9 trillion [2][8] - The company handled 10% of the notional equity market volume in the U.S. and managed 30 million client calls, indicating strong operational performance and client engagement [3][4] - Retail trading activity increased by 30% in 2024, with a further 20% rise reported in the early weeks of 2025, showcasing heightened client engagement and demand for financial services [9][10] Financial Performance - Record revenue for the year was up 22%, reflecting robust growth across various metrics [8] - The company has been actively paying down debt, contributing to its strong financial position [8] Client Engagement and Trends - Retail clients are increasingly seeking comprehensive financial support, with a notable trend towards younger investors who are more educated and investing earlier [11][10] - Key trends identified include the impact of AI on investment behavior, the evolving narrative around digital assets, and the distinction between gambling and investing [11][12][21] Market Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on the market, citing strong economic fundamentals and reasonable valuations in certain sectors, despite high overall market valuations [25][26] - Innovation remains a priority for the company, focusing on enhancing capabilities for clients and adapting to changing market dynamics [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a rotation away from tech, with a focus on other sectors, despite the S&P 500 showing a down day. This indicates a more complex market environment where breadth is positive even if index performance appears weak [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 equal weight index is up almost 1%, indicating a rotation into sectors like materials and financials, while energy is also gaining [4]. - The S&P 500 is heavily influenced by tech, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors, which together account for 55% of the index. A lack of participation from these sectors can dampen overall index performance [3]. Sector Performance - There is a notable decline in large-cap software stocks, with the iShares software ETF (IGV) hitting a relative strength index (RSI) of 16, indicating it is oversold [5][6]. - Despite potential for a bounce in oversold conditions, concerns remain about the disruptive impact of AI on business models and competitive pressures on pricing and margins [7]. Earnings Insights - The earnings beat rate has decreased to 77% from above 80%, with earnings beats performing better than revenue beats. This trend could indicate potential market weakness if it continues [11][12]. - Historical context shows that the last significant market downturn was driven by mega-cap stocks, suggesting that excluding these from analysis may reveal a more stable market condition [12][13]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly focused on guidance and external factors, particularly regarding AI investments and their expected returns, indicating a shift in how companies are evaluated [14].