核心要点 美国贫富群体的经济差距正持续扩大，经济学家认为这一趋势尚无终结迹象。 自近六年前新冠疫情彻底改变美国民众的财务习惯以来，"K 型经济" 便一直是消费者、企业领袖、政 策制定者和投资者关注的核心。而如今经济学家警告，这种双速发展的经济结构，已成为这个全球最大 经济体的核心特征，而非短暂的潮流。 穆迪分析首席经济学家马克・赞迪表示："这并非周期性或暂时性现象，而是一个结构性、根本性的问 题。" 主流观点对 K 型经济的解读如下：高收入群体受股市走高和房产增值的提振，不断大手笔消费度假服 务和高端商品；而低收入群体在经历了数年高通胀后，连住房、食品、汽油等生活必需品的开支都已捉 襟见肘。 一边是航空公司的豪华 舱位，一边是快餐连锁店的平价套餐，这一鲜明对比正是当下美国经济的真实写照。 近期多项数据综合显示，这种经济分化的态势已达到前所未有的严重程度。 不断扩大的贫富鸿沟 美国银行本月初发布的报告显示，衡量财富集中度的核心指标基尼系数已升至 60 年来的高点。该行首 席经济学家贝丝・安・博维诺表示，这意味着疫情期间推出经济刺激政策后，基尼系数跌至数十年低点 的趋势已彻底逆转。 经济学家表示，美国 K 型经济 ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January 2026, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%[7] - The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December 2025, indicating a resilient labor market despite concerns about job growth[7] - Retail sales in November 2025 increased by 0.6% month-on-month, with total sales reaching $735.904 billion[9] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditure growth remained steady at 2.6% year-on-year in November 2025, despite a decline in real disposable income growth to 1%[7] - The savings rate dropped to a low of 3.5%, indicating potential consumer spending vulnerabilities[7] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings decreased to 7.15 million in November 2025, with the job vacancy rate falling from 4.5% to 4.3%[7] - The proportion of consumers reporting difficulty in finding work rose to 20.8% in December 2025, suggesting a weakening job market[7] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market consensus anticipates no rate cuts in March 2026, with an 87% probability of maintaining current rates[7] - If the unemployment rate exceeds 4.5% and job creation remains low, the Fed may reopen the space for rate cuts[7] Risks and Constraints - Risks include a hard landing for the U.S. economy, a significant rebound in inflation, and the Fed's rate cut pace falling short of expectations[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 3.5-3.75% during the January 2026 meeting, aligning with market expectations, and indicated stability in the U.S. unemployment rate, with no further rate cuts anticipated in the remaining meetings under Powell's chairmanship [1][2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, with a split vote where two members supported a 25 basis points cut [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet management includes reinvesting maturing Treasury securities and managing reserves, with approximately $15.4 billion in reinvestment purchases planned from January 15 to February 12, 2026 [2]. - Economic indicators show steady expansion, with employment growth remaining low and inflation still elevated, while the Fed aims for full employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2% [2]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Assessment - The Fed's language shifted from "moderate pace" to "solid pace" regarding economic activity, indicating a more robust outlook [3]. - Employment language was adjusted to reflect signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, contrasting with previous assessments of rising unemployment risks [3]. - The inflation description was simplified to indicate it remains elevated, with the previous mention of rising downside risks to employment removed [3]. Group 3: Powell's Statements and Economic Outlook - Powell stated that the policy rate is in a good position and revised the expected peak of tariff-induced inflation from Q1 to mid-year [4][5]. - He highlighted the K-shaped economic recovery, where high-income individuals significantly contribute to consumption, driven by asset appreciation and AI-related investments [5][6]. - Powell expressed concerns about affordability but noted that the Fed's tools are limited in addressing structural issues like K-shaped economic disparities [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The company anticipates no further rate cuts in Powell's remaining meetings, with asset prices showing minimal volatility in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, while gold prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [7]. - The employment market is described as balanced, with low hiring and low layoffs, indicating no immediate pressure for further rate reductions [7].

Core Viewpoint - Despite soaring corporate profits and continuous GDP growth in the U.S., the labor force has not shared in the prosperity, with labor compensation's share of GDP declining to its lowest level since 1947 [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market Trends - Labor compensation's share of GDP is projected to drop to 53.8% by Q3 2025, down from 54.6% in the previous quarter and below the decade average of 55.6% [1]. - The U.S. unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.4% in December 2025, but remains higher than the 4.1% rate from a year prior, with only 584,000 new jobs added in 2025 compared to 2 million in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Economic Disparities - The contrasting performance of corporate profits and labor market data raises concerns about a "no job growth" phenomenon, exacerbating the K-shaped economic recovery where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer [4]. - The decline in labor income share is attributed to wealth distribution favoring capital, with automation replacing human jobs while productivity continues to rise [4][5]. Group 3: Automation and Job Replacement - Automation is expected to replace 25% of total work hours, with AI-driven productivity improvements potentially leading to a 6% to 7% job loss, equating to up to 1 million unemployed individuals [5]. - Despite the potential job losses from automation, new job creation from technological advancements may mitigate the impact [5]. Group 4: Immigration Policy Impact - Tightened immigration policies have led to a reduction of 881,000 foreign workers since January 2025, which has negatively affected job opportunities for domestic workers [9]. - The decrease in foreign labor contradicts claims that such policies would increase the domestic labor force, as evidenced by rising unemployment rates [9][10]. Group 5: Skills Training and Workforce Development - Addressing the automation trend and expanding the labor force requires a focus on skills training and retraining programs, which have not received adequate resources from both political parties [11][12]. - A significant increase in enrollment in vocational schools among Generation Z indicates a shift towards careers less susceptible to automation, with a 16% rise in community college enrollment for vocational programs in 2024 [11].

作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 近来，特朗普政府推出了一系列旨在降低住房成本的"组合拳"，包括下令房利美和房地美购买2000亿美 元的抵押贷款债券，特朗普还签署行政令限制大型机构投资者购买独栋住宅。同时特朗普持续向美联储 施压，要求降低利率。 当地时间27日，美国联邦住房金融局 (FHFA)发布的数据显示，经季节性调整后，2025年11月全美房价 环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨1.9%。 全美各地区房价涨幅差异显著，从美国大西洋中部地区的持平到东南部中部地区的1.1%不等。FHFA表 示，过去一年，太平洋沿岸地区的房价下跌了0.4%，而东北中部地区的年涨幅最高，达到5.1%。 美国房地产经纪人协会高级经济学家克里梅尔（Jake Krimmel）认为，特朗普政府的那些举措不太可能 为美国住房市场带来持久的缓解，因为这些举措只是"短期"措施，而非解决困扰该市场的深层结构性问 题的长期方案。 "我希望看到更多着眼于长期的供给侧解决方案，而不仅仅是刺激需求的措施。"克里梅尔解释道，如果 美国建筑业没有大幅增长，住房可负担性问题仍将持续存在。 美国金鹰房产投资公司执行合伙人陈跃武对第一财经记者解释道："目前美国的房产库存量是4 ...

2026.01. 28 本文字数：2539，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 近来，特朗普政府推出了一系列旨在降低住房成本的"组合拳"，包括下令房利美和房地美购买2000亿美元的 抵押贷款债券，特朗普还签署行政令限制大型机构投资者购买独栋住宅。同时特朗普持续向美联储施压，要 求降低利率。 房地美首席经济学家哈特（Sam Khater）表示："随着经济好转，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率比去年下 降了近一个百分点，越来越多的购房者正在进入市场。" 然而，经通胀调整后，美国房价相对于收入水平仍然很高。标普道琼斯指数公司分析师戈德克（Nicholas Godec）表示："从2024年6月到2025年6月，消费者价格指数上涨了2.7%，远超全国房价1.9%的涨幅。" 当地时间27日，美国联邦住房金融局 (FHFA)发布的数据显示，经季节性调整后，2025年11月全美房价环比 上涨0.6%，同比上涨1.9%。 全美各地区房价涨幅差异显著，从美国大西洋中部地区的持平到东南部中部地区的1.1%不等。FHFA表示， 过去一年，太平洋沿岸地区的房价下跌了0.4%，而东北中部地区的年涨幅最高，达到5.1%。 美国房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The term "killing line" has gained popularity, highlighting the long-standing survival anxiety in American society, exacerbated by systemic issues in healthcare, income, and housing, leading to a "low-tolerance society" [4][5] Group 1: Social Issues - Approximately 63% of American adults have only enough cash to cover an emergency expense of $400, indicating financial fragility [4] - The U.S. has a significant wealth disparity, with the top tier of society being extremely wealthy while the lower and middle classes face constant risks of financial collapse [4] - The U.S. lacks universal healthcare, with around 20 million adults burdened by medical debt totaling $220 billion, and 66% of personal bankruptcies linked to medical expenses [4] Group 2: Homelessness - As of January 2024, the number of homeless individuals in the U.S. reached 771,480, the highest recorded, equating to 23 homeless individuals per 10,000 people [4] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The "blame-shifting" culture in U.S. politics is characterized by mutual accusations between federal and state governments, and between political parties, especially during crises [7][9] - This blame culture is rooted in the "American exceptionalism" mindset and the decentralized political system, which allows for the easy transfer of responsibility [9][10] Group 4: Economic Context - The "killing line" reflects the failures of capitalism, where individuals unable to contribute to capital growth are seen as expendable, leading to a systemic neglect of vulnerable populations [13][14] - The ongoing discussion around the "killing line" suggests that the American system may not be the optimal model for governance and development, as it fails to protect ordinary citizens from systemic failures [14]

来源：雪涛宏观笔记 2026年，将是特朗普的行政权无限放大的年份：对内政策的功过是非，选民自有定论；对外事务的是非曲直，美元信用将做出反馈。 当大家在思考"新旧联储主席、联储独立性"等话题时，也意识到货币政策的作用越来越有限，行政手段越来越直接。未来一年，我们会看到越来越多来自 白宫的"非常规经济政策"。 政治经济学的视角越发重要。2026年，将是特朗普将其行政权无限放大的年份：对内政策的功过是非，选民自有定论；对外事务的是非曲直，美元信用将 做出反馈。 第一支箭：对内改善可负担性 特朗普试图通过一系列行政手段直接控制生活成本，而非依赖美联储的货币政策。换言之，特朗普也意识到传统的货币政策的局限，降息只能让富有的人 进一步感受到美国经济的"繁荣"。 K型经济表现为一部分"过热"，另一部分"过冷"，两者平均后在统计上呈现出恰到好处的状态。特朗普改善可负担性问题实质上是刺激K型经济中处于下 方的"冷"端（即低收入群体和受抑制的就业）。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 进入新的一年，特朗普连续霸榜国际新闻头条，内外事务全面出击：对内政策尝试修复K型经济，对外事务激进地寻找个人中选和国家利益的"公约数"， 对AI叙事 ...

2026年，将是特朗普的行政权无限放大的年份：对内政策的功过是非，选民自有定论； 对外事务的是非曲直，美元信用将做出反馈。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 进入新的一年，特朗普连续霸榜国际新闻头条，内外事务全面出击：对内政策尝试修复K型经济，对外 事务激进地寻找个人中选和国家利益的"公约数"，对AI叙事提供更加友好的宏观环境。 本次中选的核心是解决可负担性问题，特朗普的对内政策也围绕这一问题展开，从中可以明显观察到： 货币的作用更窄，财政的作用更广，传统的经济政策框架正在被白宫行政权所替代。 当大家在思考"新旧联储主席、联储独立性"等话题时，也意识到货币政策的作用越来越有限，行政手 段越来越直接。未来一年，我们会看到越来越多来自白宫的"非常规经济政策"。 政治经济学的视角越发重要。2026年，将是特朗普将其行政权无限放大的年份：对内政策的功过是 非，选民自有定论；对外事务的是非曲直，美元信用将做出反馈。 从收入分配的角度看，美国"工薪阶层"所对应的劳动收入份额在2025年第三季度进一步下行至 53.8%，延续着2000年以来的下行趋势，也创造了有史以来的最低水平。无论是减税还是更加直接的 发钱，都会再次推升政 ...

基本内容 进入新的一年，特朗普连续霸榜国际新闻头条，内外事务全面出击：对内政策尝试修复 K 型经济，对外事务激进地寻 找个人中选和国家利益的"公约数"，对 AI 叙事提供更加友好的宏观环境。 本次中选的核心是解决可负担性问题，特朗普的对内政策也围绕这一问题展开，从中可以明显观察到：货币的作用更 窄，财政的作用更广，传统的经济政策框架正在被白宫行政权所替代。 当大家在思考"新旧联储主席、联储独立性"等话题时，也意识到货币政策的作用越来越有限，行政手段越来越直接。 未来一年，我们会看到越来越多来自白宫的"非常规经济政策"。 所以，政治经济学的视角越发重要。2026 年，将是特朗普将其行政权无限放大的年份：对内政策的功过是非，选民自 有定论；对外事务的是非曲直，美元信用将做出反馈。 风险提示 宏观经济点评 进入新的一年，特朗普连续霸榜国际新闻头条，内外事务全面出击：对内政策尝试修复 K 型经济，对外事务激进地寻 找个人中选和国家利益的"公约数"，对 AI 叙事提供更加友好的宏观环境。 本次中选的核心是解决可负担性问题，特朗普的对内政策也围绕这一问题展开，从中可以明显观察到：货币的作用更 窄，财政的作用更广，传统的经 ...