Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY) has experienced a modest gain of 1.21% over the past month, indicating resilience in the volatile airline industry.The stock's short-term decline of 4.90% over the last 10 days may present a strategic entry point for investors.SNCY's projected stock price increase of 50.33% and a Piotroski Score of 8 highlight its impressive growth potential and strong fundamentals.Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY) is a prominent player in the airline industr ...

Operational Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, total departures increased to 14,345 from 13,730 in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of approximately 4.5%[95] - Revenue passenger miles (RPMs) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were 4,137,592 thousand, compared to 4,335,623 thousand in the same period of 2024, indicating a decrease of about 4.6%[96] - The load factor for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 84.8%, slightly up from 84.2% in the same period of 2024[95] - Average base fare per passenger increased to $76.90 in Q3 2025 from $75.31 in Q3 2024, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.1%[95] Revenue and Income - Total Operating Revenues increased by $6,068, or 2%, to $255,538 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024[101] - Passenger revenue decreased by $6,666, or 3%, to $201,098 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to reduced capacity[102] - Cargo revenue increased by $14,858, or 51%, to $44,023 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, driven by additional aircraft and contractual rate increases[104] - Operating Income decreased by $2,480, or 20%, to $9,902 for the three months ended September 30, 2025[101] - Net Income increased by $5,197, or 13%, to $44,664 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[120] Expenses - Salaries, Wages, and Benefits expense increased by $12,174, or 15%, to $93,093 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, due to an increase in employee headcount and contractual rate increases[108] - Aircraft Fuel expense decreased by $6,154, or 11%, to $48,583 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, due to a decrease in fuel cost per gallon and fuel consumption[107] - Total Operating Expenses increased by $27,987, or 4%, to $763,398 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[120] - Aircraft Fuel expense decreased by $23,491, or 13%, to $163,738, driven by an 11% decrease in average fuel cost per gallon[127] Employee and Fleet Information - The number of employees at the end of the period increased to 3,279 in Q3 2025 from 2,965 in Q3 2024, representing a growth of approximately 10.6%[96] - The fleet consisted of 70 Boeing 737-NG aircraft, including 45 passenger aircraft and 20 cargo aircraft as of September 30, 2025[174] Financial Ratios and Metrics - Adjusted cost per available seat mile (CASM) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 8.46 cents, compared to 8.04 cents in the same period of 2024, indicating an increase of about 5.2%[95] - Adjusted operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $12,351,000, with an adjusted operating income margin of 4.8%[152] - Adjusted Net Income for Q3 2025 was $3,739,000, a 7.2% increase from $3,489,000 in Q3 2024[155] Cash and Liquidity - As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $111,834,000 and short-term investments of $64,391,000[169] - Total liquidity as of September 30, 2025, was $298,729, up from $205,598 as of December 31, 2024[182] - Total debt, net, decreased to $301,290 as of September 30, 2025, from $327,122 as of December 31, 2024[182] Capital Expenditures and Share Repurchase - Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $29,140, down 32% from $42,615 in 2024[188] - The company repurchased 1,474,021 shares of common stock at a weighted-average price of $13.58 per share during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[192] Tax and Interest - The effective tax rate increased to 28.3% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 22.0% for the same period in 2024[119] - Interest Expense decreased by $1,864, or 17%, to $9,185 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, due to reduced debt balances and refinancing[118]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $255.5 million for Q3 2025, a 2.4% increase compared to Q3 2024, driven by a 3.8% increase in total block hours [10] - GAAP EPS for Q3 was $0.03, while adjusted EPS was $0.07, with a GAAP pre-tax margin of 8% and an adjusted pre-tax margin of 2% [9] - Year-over-year adjusted margin expansion was achieved for the fourth consecutive quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cargo revenue increased by 60% year-over-year in September, with total cargo revenue for Q3 reaching $44 million, the highest quarterly cargo revenue in the company's history [5][11] - Revenue from the passenger segment, which includes scheduled service and charter business, decreased by 3.2% year-over-year due to reduced scheduled service operations [10] - Charter revenue grew by 15.6% in Q3, with charter block hours increasing by 11.1% [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Scheduled service ASMs (Available Seat Miles) decreased by 10.2% in Q3 as resources were shifted to support cargo growth [10] - The company expects scheduled service ASMs to decline between 8% and 9% in Q4 2025 compared to the previous year [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on cargo expansion, aiming to grow its cargo fleet to 20 aircraft, all of which are currently operational [5] - The strategy includes reallocating capacity between charter and scheduled services to maximize profitability and minimize earnings volatility [15] - The company plans to expand its passenger fleet to 50 aircraft by mid-2027 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving $300 million of run rate EBITDA after Q2 2027, despite potential delays due to various factors [6] - The company anticipates a strong winter peak season with no negative indicators in demand or competitive movements [33] - Management expects TRASM (Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile) to increase over 6% in Q4 and anticipates even stronger advances in Q1 2026 [6][72] Other Important Information - The company closed on a $108 million term loan facility with a fixed rate of 5.98% per annum, which will enhance liquidity [13] - Year-to-date, the company has completed $20 million in share repurchases and expects to spend between $80 and $90 million in CapEx for the full year of 2025 [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of cargo on seasonality - Management indicated that while cargo growth has affected peak period flying, they expect to rebuild scheduled service in subsequent quarters, maintaining traditional seasonality patterns [17][19] Question: Maintenance costs in Q4 - Management elaborated that increased maintenance costs are due to fleet expansion and heavy checks, with efforts to stabilize maintenance demand [20][28] Question: RASM progression and holiday bookings - Management reported strong sales into the winter period, with no negative indicators affecting RASM, and noted that Minneapolis is becoming a two-airline market, which is beneficial [32][34] Question: Scheduled service capacity growth - Management stated that scheduled service capacity is expected to grow significantly as they bring back frequencies and utilize more aircraft, focusing on peak periods [116][118] Question: Operating margins for next year - Management expressed optimism about margin expansion in 2026, citing improvements in TRASM and unit costs, despite some maintenance cost pressures [91][122]

Core Insights - Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. reported a revenue of $255.54 million for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a 2.4% increase year-over-year, with EPS at $0.07 compared to $0.06 in the previous year [1] - The revenue fell slightly short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $256 million, resulting in a surprise of -0.18%, while the EPS also missed the consensus estimate of $0.08 by 12.5% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Revenue passenger miles reached 1.17 billion, exceeding the average estimate of 1.15 billion by two analysts [4] - Available seat miles (ASMs) totaled 1.77 billion, slightly above the estimated 1.76 billion [4] - The load factor was reported at 84.8%, surpassing the estimated 83.1% [4] - Adjusted cost per available seat mile (CASM) was 8.46 cents, better than the average estimate of 9.08 cents [4] - Fuel cost per gallon was $2.55, lower than the estimated $2.58 [4] - Operating revenues from passengers amounted to $201.1 million, exceeding the average estimate of $200.1 million [4] - Operating revenues from other sources were $10.42 million, above the estimated $9.51 million [4] - Cargo operating revenues were $44.02 million, falling short of the average estimate of $46.79 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Sun Country Airlines have declined by 7.5%, contrasting with a 3.8% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Sun Country Airlines reported quarterly earnings of $0.07 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.08 per share, but showing an improvement from $0.06 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -12.50% [1] - The company posted revenues of $255.54 million for the quarter ended September 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.18%, but up from $249.47 million year-over-year [2] - Sun Country Airlines shares have declined approximately 25% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 17.2% [3] Earnings Outlook - The earnings outlook for Sun Country Airlines is uncertain, with current consensus EPS estimates at $0.24 for the upcoming quarter and $1.16 for the current fiscal year, alongside revenues of $268.01 million and $1.12 billion respectively [7] - The trend of estimate revisions prior to the earnings release was unfavorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Transportation - Airline industry, to which Sun Country Airlines belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 42% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging environment for stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact investor sentiment and stock performance [5]

Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for Q3 2025 was $255.5 million, a 2.4% increase compared to Q3 2024[3] - GAAP diluted EPS for Q3 2025 was $0.03, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.07, reflecting a 16.7% increase year-over-year[4] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $9.9 million, with an operating margin of 3.9%[4] - Net income for Q3 2025 decreased by 33.7% to $1.552 million compared to $2.342 million in Q3 2024[24] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $9.902 million, down 20.0% from $12.382 million in Q3 2024[24] - Total operating revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $845.808 million, a 3.7% increase from $815.334 million in the same period of 2024[25] - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased to $44.7 million, a 13.2% rise from $39.5 million in the same period of 2024[40] Revenue Breakdown - Cargo revenue reached $44 million, a 50.9% increase from Q3 2024, driven by a 33.7% increase in cargo block hours[8] - Cargo revenue increased by 50.9% to $44.023 million in Q3 2025, compared to $29.165 million in Q3 2024[24] - The company reported a 12.4% increase in charter revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaling $167.636 million compared to $149.090 million in 2024[25] Expenses and Costs - Total operating expenses for Q3 2025 rose by 3.6% to $245.636 million from $237.088 million in Q3 2024[24] - Adjusted CASM for Q3 2025 was $8.46, slightly higher than $8.04 in Q3 2024, while CASM increased to 13.87 cents from 12.58 cents[49] Passenger Metrics - Scheduled service revenue passenger miles (RPMs) decreased by 9.6% to 1,165,182 thousand in Q3 2025 from 1,288,460 thousand in Q3 2024[27] - Revenue passenger miles (RPMs) decreased by 4.6% to 4,137,592 thousands compared to 4,335,623 thousands in 2024[28] - Load factor declined to 83.3% from 85.0%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points[28] - Average base fare per passenger increased by 2.1% to $76.90 in Q3 2025 from $75.31 in Q3 2024[27] - Average base fare per passenger increased by 5.0% to $95.62 from $91.08[28] Liquidity and Debt - Total liquidity as of September 30, 2025, was $299 million, with net debt at $406 million[11] - Net cash provided by operating activities increased by 5.2% to $78.2 million from $74.3 million[30] - Total current assets grew by 6.8% to $284.8 million from $266.6 million[29] - Total stockholders' equity increased by 7.0% to $610.2 million from $570.4 million[29] - Net cash used in financing activities decreased by 22.4% to $71.0 million from $91.5 million[30] Stock and Shareholder Actions - The company completed $10 million in stock repurchases during the quarter, with $15 million in share repurchase authority remaining[2] - The diluted share count for Q3 2025 was 54.7 million, compared to 54.8 million in Q3 2024[39] Future Outlook - The company expects total revenue for Q4 2025 to be between $270 million and $280 million, representing a 4% to 8% increase compared to Q4 2024[14] Other Notable Events - The company launched the Sun Country Visa Signature credit card and introduced a new loyalty tier, Sun Country Rewards Plus Status[9] - The company recognized a non-cash expense of $737,000 due to an unplanned engine retirement in July 2025[42] - Interest expense for Q3 2025 was $9.2 million, down from $11.0 million in Q3 2024[42] - Stock compensation expense for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $4.9 million, up from $4.6 million in the same period of 2024[40] - Cargo aircraft increased by 66.7% to 20 units from 12 units[28] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $36.3 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2%, compared to $37.6 million and 15.1% in Q3 2024[42]

Core Insights - Sun Country Airlines reported a total revenue of $256 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking the highest third quarter on record and a 2.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3][8] - The company achieved a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.03 and an adjusted diluted EPS of $0.07, with a thirteenth consecutive profitable quarter [1][2][4] - The operational transformation of the cargo segment was completed, with a full fleet of 20 freighter aircraft deployed for Amazon, representing a 14% expansion in total operating aircraft [2][5] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for Q3 2025 was $255.5 million, up from $249.5 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 2.4% increase [3][8] - GAAP operating income decreased by 20% to $9.9 million, while adjusted operating income was $12.4 million, down 11% from the previous year [3][4] - Net income for the quarter was $1.6 million, a decline of 33.7% compared to $2.3 million in Q3 2024 [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Cargo revenue reached $44 million, a significant 50.9% increase year-over-year, driven by a 33.7% increase in cargo block hours [9][8] - Charter revenue was $58.7 million, reflecting a 15.6% increase compared to the previous year [8][9] - Scheduled service revenue decreased by 8.4% to $76.7 million, while ancillary revenue fell by 10.3% to $65.7 million [25] Operational Metrics - System block hours flown increased by 3.8% year-over-year, with cargo block hours up by 33.7% and charter block hours up by 11.1% [7][28] - Scheduled service block hours decreased by 10.9% to support cargo growth, with an expected decline in scheduled service ASMs of approximately 8 to 9% in Q4 2025 [7][8] - The average fare per scheduled passenger increased by 1.1% to $143, with load factors improving by 0.6 percentage points [8][29] Shareholder Returns and Financial Position - The company repurchased $10 million worth of stock during the quarter, maintaining $15 million in share repurchase authority [2][10] - Total liquidity as of September 30, 2025, was $299 million, with net debt at $406 million [12][31] - The company entered into a $108 million Term Loan Facility Agreement, drawing down $54 million to refinance existing loans and aircraft [10][12] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, the company expects total revenue between $270 million and $280 million, representing a 4% to 8% increase compared to Q4 2024 [15] - Operating income margin is projected to be between 5% and 8%, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year [15]

Core Points - Sun Country Airlines has extended its selling schedule through September 8, 2026, allowing customers to book nonstop travel to over 100 destinations [1] - The airline will operate 115 routes serving 100 airports across the United States, Mexico, Central America, Canada, and the Caribbean [5] - New routes for 2026 include service between Minneapolis-St. Paul and Tulsa, Oklahoma, as well as Tulsa and Cancun starting May 21, 2026 [3] Group 1: Destinations and Services - Popular summer destinations include Anchorage, Boston, New York, Los Angeles, and Seattle, along with unique locations like Traverse City, Michigan, and Kalispell and Missoula, Montana [2] - Increased flight frequencies to coastal destinations such as Charleston, South Carolina, and San Diego will provide more options for travelers [3] - The airline emphasizes a hassle-free travel experience with state-of-the-art onboard amenities, including in-seat power and free in-flight entertainment [5] Group 2: Company Overview - Sun Country Airlines is characterized as a hybrid low-cost carrier focused on leisure and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) passengers, as well as charter customers [7] - The airline also provides cargo services, notably to Amazon, enhancing its operational capabilities [7] - The company aims to create memorable travel experiences by connecting guests to their favorite destinations [7]

Company Overview - Sun Country Airlines is a hybrid low-cost air carrier focused on connecting guests to their favorite destinations, aiming to create lifelong memories and transformative experiences [2] - The company operates scheduled service, charter, and cargo service segments, primarily serving leisure and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) passengers [2] - Sun Country provides cargo service to Amazon and operates flights throughout the United States, as well as to destinations in Mexico, Central America, Canada, and the Caribbean [2] Upcoming Earnings Call - Sun Country Airlines will hold its third quarter 2025 earnings call on October 30, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1] - Interested investors can access the live call and subsequent replay through the Sun Country investor relations website [1]

Core Insights - Sun Country Airlines (NASDAQ: SNCY) is highlighted as a favored airline stock due to its unique business model and strategic decisions post-pandemic [1]. Company Overview - Sun Country Airlines has opted to expand its scheduled services significantly as part of its post-pandemic strategy [1]. Industry Context - The article emphasizes the growth prospects within the aerospace, defense, and airline sectors, indicating a favorable environment for investment opportunities [1].