Sasol(SSL)

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Sasol(SSL) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-08-21 03:37
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sasol experienced a significant decrease in cash generation and profitability compared to the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA and cash generated by operations decreasing by 9% and 19% respectively [21][22] - Free cash flow for the financial year decreased by 60% compared to the prior year, but improved from a negative ZAR6 billion in the first half to a positive ZAR8 billion at the end of the financial year [23] - Cash fixed costs increased by 1%, well below inflation, and cash fixed costs decreased by approximately 5% when excluding inflation and exchange rate movements [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mining business saw a 4% decline versus the prior year, largely due to lower export coal prices and higher external coal purchase prices [26] - The gas business was down by 6%, mainly due to lower weighted average gas prices, although increased sales volumes partially offset this decline [27] - Chemicals Africa adjusted EBITDA decreased by 31% due to lower dollar-based sales prices, while Chemicals America adjusted EBITDA increased by more than 100% to approximately ZAR3.5 billion due to higher sales volumes and improved margins [27][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil prices softened in the second half of the financial year, decreasing by 3% compared to the prior financial year, partially offset by a 5% weaker rand [19] - Petrol differentials increased by 13%, while diesel differentials decreased by 22% compared to last year, negatively impacting the fuels business [20] - Sasol achieved polyethylene prices decreased by 8% due to persistent weak demand and global oversupply [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Sasol's strategy is centered around two pillars: strengthen and grow, and transform, focusing on enhancing delivery from core businesses and maximizing cash flow [36] - The company aims to optimize and transform its portfolio by leveraging existing assets and exploring new sustainable growth opportunities [36] - Sasol is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity, with ongoing efforts to optimize its GHG roadmap [16][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by operational issues and the macro environment, emphasizing the need for agility and cost discipline [19][20] - The outlook for FY 2025 includes a focus on improving efficiency and driving targeted innovation, with expectations for increased production and sales volumes [33][34] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to step up performance and deliver sustainable shareholder returns over the long term [24][31] Other Important Information - Sasol's successful conclusion of the PR related to clause 12A of the minimum emission standards allows for the implementation of solutions to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions starting April 2025 [12] - The company has launched the Sasol 2.0 transformation program, which has delivered a cumulative total of ZAR16 billion of EBITDA enhancements by FY 2024 [28] - Sasol is exploring options for future LNG supply to address gas depletion in Mozambique, with ongoing engagement with customers to secure demand [41][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: What has caused the impairments leading to losses experienced by the group? - Management explained that impairments are an accounting aspect triggered by a significant decline in long-term pricing, particularly in the U.S. chemical assets, which led to a reassessment of asset values [48][49] Question: Are there plans to exit from Chemicals America? - Management clarified that the assessment of cash-generating units does not imply any ambition to sell or restructure the portfolio, but rather relates to the evaluation of asset performance [49] Question: What is the plan regarding the balance sheet and cash management? - Management indicated that maintaining sufficient liquidity is crucial for refinancing and that proactive management of the balance sheet will continue [64] Question: Can you provide clarity on the longer-term EBITDA generation from the Chemical America complexes? - Management acknowledged that the impairment has affected the previously guided EBITDA range, but specific figures were not provided during the session [66]
Why Sasol (SSL) Stock Surged More Than 10% Yesterday
ZACKS· 2024-07-23 12:50
Production and Sales Metrics - Sasol's Secunda operations saw a 1% increase in production volumes year over year, attributed to a phased shutdown in fiscal 2024 compared to a total shutdown in the previous period [2] - Liquid fuels sales volumes decreased by 4% due to challenges in the South African diesel market and strategic inventory optimization [2] - Total mining production rose by 3% year over year, driven by improved operations at Thubelisha colliery and better performance at Transnet Freight Rail [6] - Saleable coal production decreased by 2%, but export sales volumes increased by 5% over fiscal 2024 [6] Chemicals Business Challenges - The chemicals segment faced a tough year, with sales revenues from South African operations down 11% due to lower prices [18] - The average sales basket price dropped by 13% from fiscal 2023, reflecting weaker global demand and lower oil prices [18] - U.S. chemical assets experienced a 12% decline in sales revenues despite a 3% increase in sales volumes [18] Gas Production in Mozambique - Sasol's gas production in Mozambique increased by 6% in fiscal 2024, surpassing market expectations [12] - The early start of production from the PSA initial gas facility in May significantly contributed to this growth [12] - Natural gas and methane-rich gas sales volumes in South Africa rose by 4% and 7%, respectively, due to higher production and increased external demand [12] Market Outlook - Sasol is set to release its financial results for fiscal 2024 on August 20, along with its outlook for fiscal 2025 [3] - Investors are keen to see how the company plans to navigate ongoing challenges in the energy market while capitalizing on operational improvements [3] - Sasol's shares increased by 10.12% in trading, driven by excitement over increased coal exports despite a 2% decline in saleable coal production [11]
Sasol (SSL) Stock Loses 26% in 2024: Wish to Buy the Drop?
ZACKS· 2024-07-18 15:10
Company Overview - Sasol is a leading provider of liquid fuels in South Africa and a major international producer of chemicals, utilizing proprietary Fischer-Tropsch technology to manufacture synthetic fuels from low-grade coal and natural gas [2][10] - The company operates the only inland crude oil refinery in South Africa and is involved in the exploration, production, and distribution of natural gas and oil, as well as marketing fuels and lubricants [2] Industry Outlook - The chemical sector is expected to experience a gradual recovery in 2024, with improvements anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by increased production volumes and stabilizing prices [3] - Industry leaders like BASF SE and Huntsman Corporation have noted this trend, positioning Sasol to capitalize on the recovery [3] Strategic Initiatives - Sasol is investing in green hydrogen production and renewable energy partnerships, enhancing its operational efficiency and reducing its carbon footprint [4][19] - The company is focused on free cash flow generation and decarbonization, aligning with global sustainability trends and enhancing its attractiveness to environmentally conscious investors [11][19] Financial Performance - Despite facing earnings challenges and market pressures, Sasol's shares are currently trading at 2.36 times forward earnings, significantly below the industry average of 9.47 and its 5-year median of 4.71, indicating an attractive valuation for potential investors [5] - The company also boasts a solid dividend yield, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [5] Political Environment - Recent political developments in South Africa suggest a more business-friendly environment, with a coalition government indicating a shift toward pragmatic policies that support economic growth and infrastructure development [18] - This political stability is expected to enhance Sasol's operational resilience and long-term growth prospects [18] Investment Opportunity - Sasol's stock has declined approximately 26% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of over 16%, presenting a potential "buy-the-drop" opportunity for investors [15] - The company's strengths, including its pioneering technology and anticipated sector recovery, suggest significant upside potential, making it an attractive investment for value-oriented investors [16] - The Zacks average price target of $15.60 per share indicates a nearly 112% upside from current levels, further supporting the investment case [21]
Sasol Limited: A Potential Inflection Story
Seeking Alpha· 2024-06-24 01:18
Company Overview - Sasol operates in three main segments: mining, energy, and chemicals, with FY 2023 adjusted EBITDA of R68.6 billion, where 7% is from mining, 56% from energy, and 37% from chemicals [2] - The chemical segment is the strategic focus going forward, significantly impacting future financials [2] Industry Context - The chemical sector faced severe margin compression post-Ukraine invasion, with declining prices and increased costs, particularly affecting European producers [2] - Sales revenues from European operations decreased by 23%, while African and American operations saw declines of 15% and 13%, respectively [2] Political Environment - Recent elections in South Africa resulted in the ANC losing its majority for the first time in 30 years, forming a coalition with the Democratic Alliance, which is perceived as pro-market [3] - The political shift has led to a positive market reaction, with the Johannesburg Stock Exchange rising 3.5% following the elections, and Sasol shares increasing over 15% in the same period [3] Strategic Outlook - Sasol is positioned at an inflection point due to the political climate and potential recovery in the chemical sector after a period of weak demand [5][10] - The company aims to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2050, adapting to the green energy transition [12] Financial Performance - Sasol has a market capitalization of R87 billion and net debt of R73 billion, with expected free cash flow between R20 billion and R35 billion, indicating a high free cash flow to EV yield and a forward dividend yield around 9% [9] - The company has tangible assets valued at R193 billion, suggesting a significant undervaluation relative to replacement value, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.45 [9] Sector Recovery - The chemical sector is showing signs of recovery, with S&P Global forecasting gradual growth in 2024, and other industry leaders expressing cautious optimism about improving demand trends [11]
SSL vs. FUPBY: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
ZACKS· 2024-06-19 16:40
Core Insights - Sasol (SSL) is currently rated as a Strong Buy (1) by Zacks, while Fuchs Petrolub SE Unsponsored ADR (FUPBY) is rated as a Sell (4), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision activity for SSL [2] - The P/B ratio for SSL is 0.40, significantly lower than FUPBY's P/B ratio of 3.28, suggesting that SSL may be undervalued compared to its book value [4] - SSL has a forward P/E ratio of 2.84, while FUPBY's forward P/E is 18.41, further indicating that SSL is potentially a better value investment [8] Valuation Metrics - The Value category grades stocks based on key metrics such as P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, and cash flow per share, which are essential for value investors [3][7] - SSL holds a Value grade of A, while FUPBY has a Value grade of D, highlighting the relative attractiveness of SSL for value investors [9] - SSL's PEG ratio is 0.27, compared to FUPBY's PEG ratio of 1.62, indicating that SSL is expected to grow earnings at a more favorable rate relative to its price [8] Investment Outlook - The combination of a strong Zacks Rank and a high Value grade suggests that SSL is a more appealing option for value investors compared to FUPBY [5][6] - The overall analysis indicates that SSL stands out in both Zacks Rank and Style Scores models, reinforcing its position as a better investment choice at this time [5]
Sasol (SSL) Upgraded to Strong Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?
ZACKS· 2024-06-11 17:00
The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system. As such, the Zacks rating upgrade for Sasol is essentially a positive comment on its earnings outlook that could have a favorable impact on its stock price. The change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, ...
After Plunging -11.81% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why the Trend Might Reverse for Sasol (SSL)
ZACKS· 2024-06-04 14:36
Sasol (SSL) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 11.8% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier. How to Determine if a Stock is Oversold We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is ...
SSL or FUPBY: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
ZACKS· 2024-06-03 16:46
Investors interested in Oil and Gas - Integrated - International stocks are likely familiar with Sasol (SSL) and Fuchs Petrolub SE Unsponsored ADR (FUPBY) . But which of these two companies is the best option for those looking for undervalued stocks? Let's take a closer look. There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. The Zacks Rank favors ...
Sasol(SSL) - 2024 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-02-26 16:48
Company Participants Across the organization, strict costs and capital management measures have been introduced to improve cash flow generation. We also continue to embed operational improvements with a relentless focus on safety, improving productivity rates at Mining, which will lead to better performance of the South African value chain. I will unpack this in more detail in a later slide. This takes place against the backdrop of continued volatility, and in South Africa specifically, an uncertain regulat ...
Sasol(SSL) - 2023 Q4 - Annual Report
2023-09-01 14:02
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form 6-K REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Report on Form 6-K for 1 September, 2023 Commission File Number 1-31615 Sasol Limited 50 Katherine Street Sandton 2196 South Africa (Name and address of registrant's principal executive office) Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F. Form 20-F ...