Core Viewpoint - Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) is positioned well to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates in the upcoming quarterly report [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Triple Flag has a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, averaging a 9.77% beat over the last two quarters [2]. - In the most recent quarter, the company reported earnings of $0.24 per share, exceeding the expected $0.21 per share, resulting in a surprise of 14.29% [3]. - For the previous quarter, Triple Flag's earnings of $0.20 per share also surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.19 per share, yielding a surprise of 5.26% [3]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Triple Flag, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating potential for another earnings beat [6]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [7]. - Currently, Triple Flag has an Earnings ESP of +2.33%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential, combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [9].

Summary of North American Metals & Mining Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: North American Precious Metals - **Key Commodities**: Gold and Silver Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Price Forecasts**: - Gold is projected to reach **$5,000/oz** and silver to **$65/oz** in the next 12-18 months, with 2026 average forecasts for gold raised by **18%** to **$4,329/oz** and silver by **29%** to **$54.88/oz** [1][10][11] - Investment demand for gold is expected to increase by **14%** in 2026, similar to the current year [2] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - Key conditions supporting gold price strength include: - US structural deficit - Inflationary pressures from deglobalization - Threats to the independence of the US central bank - Ongoing global geopolitical tensions [1] 3. **Investment Trends**: - ETF purchases of gold surged by **880% YoY** in September, reaching an all-time high of **$14 billion** [2] - Total physical and paper gold investment has nearly doubled, exceeding **5%** of global equity and fixed income markets [2] 4. **Risks to Monitor**: - Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs - Potential hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve if economic data improves - Outcomes of the US mid-term elections affecting economic policy implementation [2] Company-Specific Updates 1. **Net Asset Value (NAV) and Price Objectives (PO)**: - NAV estimates for North American Precious Metals coverage increased by **10%**, with average POs raised by **16%** [3][19] - IAMGOLD (IAG) saw the largest PO increase of **49%** to **$16.75** per share, reflecting improved jurisdictional risk [3][15] - SSR Mining (SSRM) PO raised by **41%** to **$18.00** per share, despite an Underperform rating due to uncertainties regarding Çöpler mine [3][15] 2. **Top Picks**: - Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is highlighted as the top pick due to its strong track record and growth projects [4] - Pan American Silver (PAAS) is favored for balanced exposure to silver and gold [4] 3. **EBITDA Revisions**: - Average EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027 increased by **25%** and **18%**, respectively, driven by revised commodity price forecasts [20] 4. **Valuation Multiples**: - Target multiples for IAMGOLD and SSR Mining adjusted to **1.60x** and **1.00x**, respectively, reflecting improved performance and market conditions [15][16] Additional Important Information - The report indicates potential conflicts of interest due to BofA Securities' business relationships with covered issuers [6] - The document includes various disclosures and certifications relevant to the research [5][6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on industry trends, company-specific updates, and potential investment opportunities and risks.

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) - TFPM currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting it is positioned for potential outperformance [3] Price Performance - TFPM shares have increased by 0.77% over the past week, while the Zacks Mining - Gold industry remained flat [5] - Over the last month, TFPM's price change is 11.98%, slightly below the industry's 12.5% [5] - In the past quarter, TFPM shares rose by 30.06%, and over the last year, they increased by 91.14%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which rose by 6.33% and 14.66% respectively [6] Trading Volume - TFPM's average 20-day trading volume is 721,671 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the last two months, 3 earnings estimates for TFPM have been revised upwards, while only 1 estimate was revised downwards, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $0.84 to $0.88 [9] - For the next fiscal year, 3 estimates have also moved upwards with no downward revisions [9] Conclusion - Given the strong momentum indicators and positive earnings outlook, TFPM is recommended as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a potential candidate for near-term investment [11]

Summary of Triple Flag Precious Metals Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE: TFPM) - **Founded**: 2016 - **Market Position**: Fourth largest streaming and royalty company in the precious metals sector [2][3] - **Current Sales Guidance**: 105,000 to 115,000 gold-equivalent ounces for 2025, projected to rise to 135,000 to 145,000 by 2029 [3][30] - **Portfolio**: 237 assets, with 30 currently producing [3] Financial Performance - **Dividend**: $0.23 per share, increased annually since IPO in May 2021 [3] - **Available Liquidity**: Approximately $1 billion for new investments [3] - **Capital Deployment**: $2.8 billion since inception, correlating to about $280 million annually [14][15] - **Free Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow and free cash flow are effectively the same due to the absence of ongoing capital expenditures [13] Business Model and Strategy - **Streaming and Royalty Model**: Generates robust free cash flows without the drag of capital expenditures, allowing for a diverse portfolio [4][5] - **Diversification**: Includes various operators, commodities (primarily gold and silver), and jurisdictions [5][21] - **Optionality**: Embedded in contracts, allowing for direct benefits from rising commodity prices without margin variability [6][10] - **Focus on Cash Flow**: Emphasis on acquiring producing mines and near-mine exploration to quickly add value [45][46] Growth Drivers - **Current and Future Projects**: Growth to 135,000 to 145,000 gold-equivalent ounces will come from expansions of existing mines and new exploration projects [30] - **Key Assets**: Northparkes, Beta Hunt, and Hope Bay are highlighted as significant contributors to future growth [30][49] - **Recent Acquisitions**: - 1% royalty on Arthur Gold Project for slightly less than $250 million [51] - 0.5% royalty on Zhejiang's flagship lithium mine for just under $30 million [55] - 5% silver stream on Arcata and Azuca for $35 million [57] Market Outlook - **Gold Price**: Currently nearing $4,000 per ounce, with a positive long-term outlook due to structural factors such as government debt [10][11] - **Investment Philosophy**: Focus on high-quality assets with significant exploration potential, while maintaining a strong balance sheet [40][74] Cultural and Operational Insights - **Team Background**: Predominantly from larger mining companies, emphasizing a blend of operational and financial expertise [44] - **Transparency and Due Diligence**: Strong emphasis on detailed asset evaluation and open communication with partners [47][48] Conclusion - **Long-term Vision**: Commitment to growing free cash flow per share and maintaining alignment with shareholder interests, with a focus on high-quality precious metals exposure [40][74]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) - TFPM currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which is associated with a historical outperformance in the market [4] Performance Metrics - Over the past week, TFPM shares increased by 1.06%, while the Zacks Mining - Gold industry rose by 3.29% [6] - In a longer timeframe, TFPM's shares have appreciated by 18.45% over the past quarter and 73.94% over the last year, outperforming the S&P 500's gains of 8.48% and 16.96%, respectively [7] Trading Volume - TFPM's average 20-day trading volume is 678,429 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Earnings Outlook - In the last two months, three earnings estimates for TFPM have been revised upwards, increasing the consensus estimate from $0.84 to $0.87 [10] - For the next fiscal year, four estimates have also moved higher, with no downward revisions noted [10] Conclusion - Given the strong performance metrics and positive earnings outlook, TFPM is positioned as a promising investment opportunity with a Momentum Score of A [12]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant bull run, with gold prices reaching new highs and gold mining stocks benefiting from this trend, presenting investment opportunities for those who can identify the right stocks [1]. Group 1: Gold Mining Companies - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a leading precious metals streaming and royalty company, providing exposure to gold and silver production with a lower risk profile than traditional miners, supported by stable cash flows and strong margins [4]. - Agnico Eagle Mines is recognized as a premier gold producer with high-quality mines in favorable jurisdictions, known for operational excellence and disciplined capital management, making it a strong performer in the sector [7]. - Newmont is the world's largest gold mining company, offering unmatched leverage to gold prices due to its scale and diversification, while also producing other metals that contribute to its revenue stability [13]. Group 2: Earnings Revisions and Analyst Outlook - Triple Flag Precious Metals has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) with current year earnings estimates up by 8.5% and next year's estimates up by 12.4%, indicating strong analyst support [5]. - Agnico Eagle Mines also holds a Zacks Rank 1, with current year earnings estimates climbing 6.4% and next year's projections increasing by 7.7%, reflecting positive analyst sentiment [8]. - Newmont has received unanimous analyst upgrades, with current year earnings estimates revised 8.5% higher and next year's forecasts up by 12.4%, showcasing strong analyst confidence [14]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Triple Flag Precious Metals is forming a bull flag pattern, with a potential breakout above the $29 level that could lead to new highs as gold prices continue to rise [6]. - Agnico Eagle Mines has completed a descending channel formation and has broken out to the upside, positioning the stock to challenge all-time highs [9]. - Newmont has also consolidated in a bull flag formation and has broken out decisively, indicating the next phase of its ongoing rally [14]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite the strong performance in gold and mining stocks, valuations in the sector remain reasonable, with a combination of upward earnings revisions and strong technical setups making TFPM, AEM, and NEM attractive for investors [16]. - The favorable macro conditions and improving analyst outlooks position TFPM, AEM, and NEM as leaders in the precious metals market, appealing to investors seeking both momentum and long-term exposure [17].

Group 1 - Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) has reached a record high after breaking out of a base, indicating strong performance in the gold stock sector [1] - TFPM, along with Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Kinross Gold (KGC), is leading the IBD Sector Leaders list, showcasing the strength of these gold stocks [1] - The fundamentals and robust chart of TFPM have contributed to its inclusion in the IBD 50, highlighting its investment potential [1] Group 2 - A gold streaming company reported a profit growth of 118%, indicating significant financial performance in the gold sector [2] - The gold stock is currently in the buy zone, suggesting favorable conditions for potential investors [2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with various gold stocks showing strong gains and attracting investor interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in precious metal prices is leading to increased profits for mining companies, resulting in higher dividends for investors Group 1: Pan American Silver (PAAS) - Pan American Silver has increased its quarterly dividend by 20% due to strong silver gains, with a current dividend yield of 1.51% and an annual dividend of $0.48 [1][3] - In Q2 2025, the company produced 5.1 million ounces of silver and approximately 178,000 ounces of gold, achieving record basic earnings per share (EPS) of 52 cents and free cash flow of $33 million [2][3] - The total return for Pan American Silver shares in Q2 2025 was over 58%, with silver prices rising by 32% and gold prices by 27% [2] Group 2: AngloGold Ashanti (AU) - AngloGold Ashanti has announced a 16% increase in its interim dividend to $0.80 per share, supported by a 149% increase in free cash flow [5][7] - The company produced 804,000 ounces of gold in Q2 2025, a 21% increase from the previous year, with the average gold price rising by 41% to $3,287 [6][7] - The current dividend yield for AngloGold Ashanti is approximately 2.2%, with a payout ratio of 50% of free cash flow [8] Group 3: Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) - Triple Flag Precious Metals has increased its annual dividend by 5% to $0.23, with a current dividend yield of 0.85% [9][10] - The company reported a record operating cash flow of 38 cents per share, a 50% increase, and achieved 57,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) in the first half of the year [10][11] - The total return for Triple Flag Precious Metals in 2025 was 75% [11]

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. increased by 0.9% in July from the previous month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the largest monthly increase in three years [3][5] - Services were the primary driver of the PPI increase, rising by 1.1% in July, indicating that companies may be passing higher import costs to consumers [5][24] - The PPI report has influenced expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, with traders still anticipating a reduction in September, but the likelihood of a significant half-point cut has decreased [6][24] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have remained resilient, trading near historic highs, with spot prices consolidating in the mid-$3,300s after reaching an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April [7][8] - Factors contributing to gold's steady performance include inflation concerns, a weaker U.S. dollar, central bank demand, and expectations of lower interest rates [8][27] - Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of $3.2 billion in July, bringing total assets under management to $386 billion, indicating strong investor interest [10] Group 3: Royalty and Streaming Companies - Royalty and streaming companies have reported record quarterly results, with Franco-Nevada achieving revenue of $369.4 million, up 42% year-over-year, and Wheaton Precious Metals generating $503 million in revenue [16][17] - These companies provide upfront financing to miners in exchange for a portion of future production, offering lower risk exposure and strong cash flow [13][14] - The model of royalty and streaming companies is seen as a balanced approach between owning bullion and traditional mining equities, capturing upside in rising gold prices while providing downside protection [15][20] Group 4: Traditional Miners and Market Outlook - Traditional gold miners are regaining favor, with UBS analysts upgrading their outlook on the sector due to improved capital management and rebuilding investor trust [21] - If gold prices remain stable, there is potential for increased stock buybacks and merger and acquisition activity among miners [22] - The ongoing inflationary environment and tariff impacts are expected to shift costs to consumers, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against inflation [24][25]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Triple Flag achieved record sales of nearly 29,000 GEOs in Q2 2025, resulting in record adjusted EBITDA of CAD 76 million and operating cash flow of CAD 0.38 per share [3][4] - Operating cash flow per share increased by over 50% year over year, marking a new quarterly record [9] - The company exited the quarter with zero debt and expects to maintain a net cash position by the end of Q3 2025 [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North Park and Cerro Lindo remain the two largest contributors to revenue, with North Park achieving a record quarter due to higher open pit grades from stockpiled ore [11][12] - Revenues were derived 100% from precious metals, with approximately two-thirds from gold, indicating a strong focus on gold and silver exposure [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong performance amid record precious metals prices, benefiting from high margins that consistently exceed 90% [4][9] - Approximately 90% of revenue was derived from assets located in Australia and The Americas, highlighting the company's focus on mining-friendly jurisdictions [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on accretive acquisitions, with recent transactions including the Tre Corvadis Lithia mine in Argentina and additional royalties on the Johnson Camp copper mine in Arizona [4][5] - The acquisition of a 1% NSR royalty on the Arthur Gold project in Nevada is expected to provide long-term growth potential [5] - The investment thesis remains centered on top-tier assets, a focus on precious metals, and a predominantly North American and Australian portfolio [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the 2025 guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 ounces, supported by strong operating cash flows and a robust transaction pipeline [4][16] - The company anticipates several catalysts, including the commencement of production at multiple mines and ongoing exploration successes [16][18] Other Important Information - The company announced a 5% increase in its annual dividend to CAD 0.02, marking the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO [10] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with total liquidity available of nearly CAD 1 billion, allowing for continued investment in growth opportunities [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What should be expected as steady state production from the Johnson Camp royalty? - Management indicated that the Johnson Camp royalty is a small purchase and did not provide specific asset guidance [20][21] Question: Can you walk through potential offsets for declining production in 2026? - Management noted that while North Park's high-grade stockpiles will deplete, production from the Arcata mine and Johnson Camp mine is expected to come online, providing potential offsets [33][35] Question: What is the current deal pipeline looking like? - Management stated that the pipeline is full, with a mix of larger and smaller opportunities, predominantly in the $100 million to $300 million range, focusing on precious metals [39][40] Question: Is the focus still on safe jurisdictions like The Americas and Australia? - Management confirmed that the focus remains on The Americas and Australia, with limited interest in opportunities in Africa [47][48]