Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty Inc. is entering its second-quarter earnings report with strong sales momentum and international expansion plans, despite facing margin pressures and changing consumer spending patterns [1]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 28, with earnings projected at $5.07 per share, an increase from the previous estimate of $4.87 but down from $5.30 a year ago [3]. - Revenue is forecasted to rise by 4.7% year-over-year to $2.67 billion, slightly above consensus estimates of $2.66 billion [4]. - Gross margins are anticipated to narrow by 20 basis points to 38.1%, while operating margins are expected to contract by 160 basis points to 11.3% [4]. Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey raised her price forecast for Ulta to $590 from $520, reflecting a 21.4x multiple on forward earnings, which is above recent trading levels but below Ulta's 10-year average [2]. - For fiscal 2025, Ulta reaffirmed guidance with sales expected between $11.5 billion and $11.7 billion and earnings per share between $22.65 and $23.30, while Telsey raised her EPS estimate to $23.45 [6]. Strategic Developments - Recent corporate updates include the planned conclusion of Ulta's Target shop-in-shop program in 2026, the acquisition of U.K.-based retailer Space NK, and international expansion initiatives in Mexico and the Middle East [5]. - Leadership changes are ongoing under new CEO Kecia Steelman, who took over in June following the departure of CFO Paula Oyibo [5]. Market Sentiment - Analysts from JPMorgan, Barclays, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, and DA Davidson have raised their price forecasts for Ulta, reflecting optimism despite margin challenges [8]. - Telsey highlighted consumer spending trends as a significant risk for the latter half of the year, with fragrance being a standout category while skincare, wellness, and makeup show mixed performance [7].

Group 1 - The stock of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is experiencing significant attention due to high implied volatility in the options market, particularly the Sep 19, 2025 $180 Put option [1] - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant change in Ulta Beauty's stock price, potentially due to an upcoming event [2] - Analysts have a generally positive outlook on Ulta Beauty, with four analysts raising their earnings estimates for the current quarter, resulting in an increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate from $4.87 to $4.97 per share [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility surrounding Ulta Beauty may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with elevated implied volatility [4]

Core Insights - Analysts project Ulta Beauty (ULTA) will report quarterly earnings of $4.97 per share, a decline of 6.2% year over year, with revenues expected to reach $2.64 billion, an increase of 3.5% from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 0.3% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and have a strong correlation with short-term stock price performance [3] Key Metrics Estimates - Total stores open at the end of the quarter are projected to be 1,466, up from 1,411 a year ago [5] - The number of stores opened during the quarter is estimated at 13, compared to 17 in the same quarter last year [5] - Total gross square feet at the end of the quarter is forecasted to reach 15,294 million square feet, an increase from 14,783 million square feet in the previous year [6] - Net sales per average total square footage is estimated at $175.52, up from $172.64 a year ago [6] - Total stores open at the beginning of the quarter are expected to be 1,451, compared to 1,395 a year ago [7] Market Performance - Over the past month, Ulta shares have recorded returns of +2.8%, slightly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.7% change [7] - Based on its Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), Ulta is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the upcoming period [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty Inc. is experiencing positive momentum ahead of its earnings report, driven by stronger sales trends, tighter promotions, and increased product innovation, leading to expectations of robust growth and higher profitability in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 1: Sales and Earnings Forecast - JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers raised his second-quarter comparable sales forecast to 4.8%, significantly above the Street's expectation of 2.5% and his previous estimate of 2% [2] - If Ulta meets the forecast, earnings could exceed the original full-year EPS guidance by approximately $1.40 in the first half [4] - Horvers projects EPS of $24.85 in 2025, $28.03 in 2026, and $31.64 in 2027, supported by a 3.5% same-store sales growth [4] Group 2: Product Innovation and Promotions - Product innovation has nearly quadrupled year over year, with the introduction of eight new K-Beauty brands, while Ulta has narrowed promotions to exclude fragrance and prestige categories [3] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Forecasts - Horvers reaffirmed an Overweight rating on Ulta and raised his price forecast from $525 to $600, citing stronger comps and higher EPS [1] - Other analysts have also turned positive on Ulta, with Barclays upgrading the stock from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raising its forecast from $518 to $589 [6] - Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating and increased its forecast from $510 to $600, while Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating and boosted its forecast from $542 to $600 [7] Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - Ulta's unique mass-prestige mix, loyalty program data, and market-leading assortment position the company for sustainable margin expansion, share gains, and earnings growth [5] - The company is expected to provide a more meaningful full-year raise after modestly lifting first-quarter guidance [4]

Group 1 - Ulta Beauty Inc shares increased by 1.4% to $527.27 after receiving an upgrade to "overweight" from "equal weight" at Barclays, which also raised the price target to $589 from $518 due to a positive outlook on same-store sales and resilience against tariff challenges [1] - The stock has rebounded above $520 after a decline from its 52-week high of $534.10, with a 40.7% increase over the past 12 months and a third consecutive daily gain following an 11.8% rise post-earnings on May 30 [2] - The upcoming second-quarter report is anticipated on August 28, with 15 out of 27 brokerages currently holding a "hold" or "strong sell" rating, indicating potential for more bullish notes if bearish sentiment diminishes [3] Group 2 - Options traders have shown increased bearish sentiment recently, with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.03, ranking higher than 80% of readings from the past year, indicating a prevailing put-bias among short-term traders [4] - The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 1.73, placing it in the 99th percentile of readings from the past 12 months, further reflecting the bearish outlook among traders [4]

在关税方面，Ulta面临的关税风险极低——去年仅有约1%的商品为直接进口，意味着关税对直接成本 的影响微乎其微。 智通财经APP获悉，Ulta Beauty(ULTA.US)下周即将公布第二季度业绩，在此之际，巴克莱将该股评级 从"中性"上调至"增持"，将目标价提高14%至589美元，较周四收盘价隐含13%的上涨空间。预计Ulta的 同店销售额增长势头将持续向好，且公司受关税阻力影响相对较小，单位成本增幅可忽略不计，仅为 0.2%。 自凯西娅·斯蒂尔曼接任首席执行官以来，Ulta实施了一系列"快速且果断的变革"，重点优化零售分销渠 道——包括不再续约与塔吉特(TGT.US)的合作、改善促销活动，以及拓展价格区间和品类组合，为大 众及高端美妆品牌均提供了重要的分销渠道。 关于整体经济环境，巴克莱分析师安德里亚·易(Andrienne Yih)认为，美妆品类(尤其是Ulta的核心客 群"美妆爱好者")将"继续在美妆、健康及保健品类上增加支出占比"。 易在给客户的报告中表示："我们认为，自2022年峰值以来逐步回归常态的整体美妆市场，正处于企稳 过程中，年增长率将维持在中个位数水平。" Ulta将于美东时间8月28 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended July 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Financial Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $4.97 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6.2%, while revenues are projected to reach $2.64 billion, representing a 3.5% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.34% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive adjustment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that Ulta has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.39%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, indicates a strong potential for an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Ulta exceeded the expected earnings of $5.77 per share by delivering $6.70, resulting in a surprise of +16.12% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Ulta has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Context - Another player in the retail sector, Five Below (FIVE), is expected to report earnings of $0.61 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year increase of 13%, with revenues projected at $997.33 million, up 20.2% from the previous year [18]. - Despite a significant downward revision of 130.8% in the consensus EPS estimate for Five Below over the last 30 days, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +13.35%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [19].

Core Insights - Ulta Beauty and Target will end their five-year shop-in-shop partnership in August 2026, having established 600 locations, which is below the initial target of 800 [2][3] - The partnership's conclusion is expected to impact Target more negatively, as it is already facing declining sales and foot traffic, while Ulta is likely to benefit from distancing itself from Target's recent reputational issues [4][5] Ulta Beauty's Position - Ulta's reputation is tied to its partnerships, and the decision to end the collaboration with Target may enhance its standing as Target's reputation has declined [5] - Ulta's total royalties from Target were $23.7 million last year, down from $28.8 million in 2023, but the company anticipates only a minimal revenue impact of 1% or less from the partnership's end [10] - With the partnership ending, Ulta can refocus on its core business and growth opportunities, including the recent acquisition of British retailer Space NK and international expansion plans [12][13] Target's Challenges - Target has experienced ten consecutive quarters of flat or declining sales, with a recent 2.8% drop in net sales and a 3.8% decline in comparable sales in Q1 2025 [5] - Foot traffic to Target stores has decreased by 4% and 3% in the first and second quarters of this year, exacerbated by calls for boycotts [6] - Target's revenues peaked at $109.1 billion in 2022 but fell to $106.6 billion in 2024, with beauty being the only category to show growth [7][8] Future Outlook - Target is expected to guide for a low single-digit decline in sales this year, with employee confidence reportedly low, as 40% of employees have lost faith in the company [8][9] - The search for a new CEO is critical, with a strong preference among investors for an external candidate to lead the company through its challenges [9]

Core Viewpoint - Target and Ulta Beauty have mutually agreed not to renew their shop-in-shop partnership, which will expire in August 2026, while continuing to provide services until that date [1][2]. Group 1: Partnership Details - The Ulta Beauty experience at Target will remain available until August 2026, allowing customers to access beauty products and link their Ulta Beauty Rewards and Target Circle accounts [2]. - Both companies are committed to ensuring a seamless shopping experience and product availability through the end of the partnership [3]. Group 2: Future Plans - Ulta Beauty will continue to offer beauty and wellness products through its own omnichannel experience, including the upcoming Ulta Beauty Marketplace [4]. - Target plans to provide a differentiated beauty assortment and new experiences for its customers [4]. Group 3: Background and Challenges - The partnership began in November 2020, with Ulta Beauty merchandise offered in 100 Target locations and online [7]. - Ulta Beauty faced challenges during the pandemic, including layoffs due to store closures and a shift to online sales [7]. - Target has experienced 10 consecutive quarters of flat or declining sales, which may have influenced the decision to end the partnership [5]. - Issues such as messy in-store operations, retail theft, and insufficient staffing have been cited as contributing factors to the partnership's conclusion [6].

At a investor presentation in New York City in March, CEO Brian Cornell highlighted beauty as a growth category for Target and cited it as reason for confidence in Target's long-term business. He said the company gained market share in the beauty and its sales in the category rose by nearly 7% in the fiscal year that ended in early February. Target has added new brands to its beauty department. At a growing number of stores, it also has mini Ulta Beauty shops with prestige brands. Ulta Beauty and Target sai ...