Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty is expected to experience a temporary decline in earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 due to significant investments under the "Ulta Beauty Unleashed" strategy, but a strong recovery is anticipated in fiscal year 2026, outperforming market expectations [2][3][11] Group 1: Financial Projections - EPS for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be $22.70, a decrease of 10.4% from fiscal year 2024, while fiscal year 2026 EPS is expected to rebound to $24.50, exceeding Wall Street's forecast by 7.3% [3][11] - Analysts are using a blended price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.5x for fiscal year 2025 and 20.0x for fiscal year 2026, leading to a target price of $432.81, representing a 12% upside [7][9] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "Ulta Beauty Unleashed" strategy is expected to drive high-margin revenue growth through enhanced e-commerce capabilities and a robust loyalty program with 44.6 million members [2][4] - Cost optimization initiatives aiming for $200 million to $250 million in savings will fully materialize in fiscal year 2026, further improving operating profit margins [3][4] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Ulta's loyalty program is a significant asset, providing detailed customer insights that enable personalized marketing strategies, enhancing customer engagement and loyalty [4][5] - The upcoming Mirakl e-commerce platform will allow Ulta to expand its product offerings without increasing inventory risks, differentiating it from competitors [6] Group 4: Risks and Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape remains intense, with pressures from new entrants and established players, which could impact market share and profitability [9][10] - Macro pressures, including high debt levels and cautious consumer spending, may pose risks to the anticipated recovery in high-margin beauty products [10]

Group 1 - The article initiates coverage on Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) with a Buy rating and a price target of $432.81, highlighting it as the largest dedicated beauty retail network in the U.S. with over 1,300 stores and strong digital channels [1] - Ulta Beauty offers a range of products and services including cosmetics, skincare, salon services, and private-label products, indicating a diversified business model [1] - Moretus Research employs a structured framework to identify companies with durable business models and mispriced cash flow potential, focusing on U.S. public markets [1] Group 2 - The research emphasizes rigorous fundamental analysis combined with a judgment-driven process, aiming to provide clarity and actionable insights for investors [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model, emphasizing comparability and simplicity [1] - Moretus Research targets underappreciated companies undergoing structural changes or temporary dislocations, which can lead to asymmetric returns for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty's stock performance has shown a recent decline, but it has outperformed the Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 over the past month, indicating potential resilience in its market position [1]. Financial Performance - Ulta Beauty is expected to report earnings of $5.73 per share on May 29, 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.44%. Revenue is projected to be $2.79 billion, representing a 2.19% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $23.01 per share, down 9.19% from the previous year, while revenue is expected to reach $11.57 billion, up 2.41% [3]. Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Ulta Beauty indicate changing business trends, with upward revisions suggesting analysts' optimism about the company's profitability [4]. - The Zacks Rank system, which reflects these estimate changes, currently rates Ulta Beauty as 3 (Hold), with a slight decrease of 0.15% in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [6]. Valuation Metrics - Ulta Beauty's Forward P/E ratio stands at 17.14, which is higher than the industry average of 14.21, indicating a premium valuation [7]. - The company's PEG ratio is 2.34, compared to the industry average of 1.53, suggesting that Ulta Beauty's expected earnings growth is factored into its valuation [7]. Industry Context - The Retail - Miscellaneous industry, which includes Ulta Beauty, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 155, placing it in the bottom 38% of over 250 industries, indicating weaker performance relative to other sectors [8].

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) and Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI) are two leading retailers in the beauty space with loyal customer bases and well-established brand recognition. Ulta Beauty stands out as a full-service beauty destination, offering everything from skincare and cosmetics to haircare and salon services. Meanwhile, Bath & Body Works focuses on a narrower but highly profitable niche — dominating the personal care and fragrance space with a strong brand and high-margin product lines.As we move through ...

In the latest trading session, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) closed at $361.46, marking a +1.83% move from the previous day. The stock exceeded the S&P 500, which registered a gain of 1.81% for the day. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 1.56%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 2.06%.Shares of the beauty products retailer have appreciated by 12.87% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 5.27% and the S&P 500's loss of 6.14%.Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance o ...

I am an independent analyst and investor interested in investing at the intersection of value and growth. My method is a highly qualitative focus on mostly small caps, looking for both long term compounders as well as some special situations. On Twitter @GrowthyValueAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinion ...

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) has seen its shares decline 17.3% over the past three months, underperforming the broader Zacks Retail – Wholesale sector and the S&P 500, which fell 11.3% and 14.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the stock has fared slightly better than the industry’s 18.4% drop. This pullback reflects a combination of challenging macroeconomic conditions and company-specific headwinds. That said, Ulta Beauty has still managed to outperform some of its peers, such as Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) , ...

Within the space of just a few days, the stock market has nearly unraveled all of 2024's gains, driven by the fear that Trump's fresh tariff plan will set the U.S. on a faster collision course to a recession. Amid this backdrop, however, investors who haveWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has b ...

While the prestige and mass beauty industry segments in 2024 have rebounded, growth 7% and 3%, respectively, Ulta Beauty Inc ULTA is gaining back market share, according to Goldman Sachs. The Ulta Beauty Analyst: Analyst Kate McShane upgraded the rating from Neutral to Buy, while raising the price target from $384 to $423. The Ulta Beauty Thesis: The company's quarter-to-date trends appear to be in-line with the current comp guidance, "with some acceleration in sales observed recently," McShane said in the ...

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, DC 20549 FORM 10-K ☒ Annual Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the transition period from _____________ to _____________ Commission File Number: 001-33764 ULTA BEAUTY, INC. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware (State or ot ...