研究报告 Research Report 4 Jun 2025 VISA (V US) 近况更新： VISA 三大增长引擎持续发力，2QFY25 经调整 EPS 超预期并维持全年指引 Latest Update: Visa's Three Growth Engines Remain Strong, 2QFY25 Adjusted EPS Beats Expectations and Full- year Guidance Maintained [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 US$365.86 目标价 US$392.04 市值 US$709.46bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$2,387mn 发行股票数目 1,711mn 自由流通股 (%) 100% 1 年股价最高最低值 US$367.90-US$253.74 注：现价 US$365.86 为 2025 年 06 月 03 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12m ...

Company Overview - Visa closed at $365.86, with a slight increase of +0.15% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.58% [1] - Over the past month, Visa's shares have increased by 4.78%, surpassing the Business Services sector's gain of 3.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.61% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Visa is expected to report an EPS of $2.84, reflecting a growth of 17.36% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected to be $9.85 billion, indicating a 10.7% increase from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $11.35 per share, with a revenue forecast of $39.61 billion, representing changes of +12.94% and +10.26% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Visa may indicate shifts in near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [3][4] Valuation Metrics - Visa currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 32.18, which is a premium compared to the industry's average Forward P/E of 15.08 [6] - The PEG ratio for Visa stands at 2.46, while the Financial Transaction Services industry has an average PEG ratio of 1.17 [6] Industry Context - The Financial Transaction Services industry is part of the Business Services sector, holding a Zacks Industry Rank of 51, placing it in the top 21% of over 250 industries [7] - The top 50% rated industries tend to outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Visa Inc. continues to demonstrate strong financial performance, benefiting from rising cross-border volumes and increased digital payment adoption, supported by resilient consumer spending [1][5] - Year-to-date, Visa's stock has increased by 15.7%, outperforming the broader industry and key competitors [2][8] - Visa's fundamentals remain solid, characterized by stable revenue growth, strong cash flows, and high profitability [5][9] Financial Performance - In fiscal 2024, processed transactions increased by 10%, with a further 10.2% growth in the first half of fiscal 2025 [6] - Payments volume rose by 6.7% in fiscal 2024 and 6.3% in the first half of fiscal 2025, contributing significantly to revenue [6] - Strong operating cash flow increased by 26.4% in the first half of fiscal 2025, allowing for reinvestment in technology and strategic partnerships [9] Growth Opportunities - Emerging markets present significant expansion potential, with payments volume growing by 6.1% in Latin America and 14.2% in CEMEA during the first half of fiscal 2025 [7] - Visa's initiatives in contactless payments, AI integration, and crypto solutions are expected to diversify revenue sources [10] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Visa's EPS to rise by 12.9% in fiscal 2025 and 12.6% in fiscal 2026 [8][12] - Revenue growth is anticipated in the high single-digit to low double-digit range for fiscal 2025 [11] Valuation Metrics - Visa's forward P/E ratio stands at 29.67X, higher than its five-year median of 26.92X and the industry average of 23.38X [13] - Compared to competitors, Visa's valuation places it in the middle, with Mastercard at 33.98X and American Express at 18.36X [13] Regulatory Environment - Visa faces potential challenges from rising expenses and regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which could impact future growth [15][17] - Legal challenges regarding market dominance and fee structures may pose risks to Visa's business model [16][17]

市场消息：美国航空公司和飞机制造商反对推进参议院立法以降低Visa和万事达交易手续费的新举措。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the unique perspective of a medical graduate turned research analyst, highlighting the combination of healthcare knowledge and financial analysis skills to identify investment opportunities in companies with growth potential and stable profits [1] Company Analysis - The focus is on identifying long-term stock investments, particularly in the healthcare sector, which is seen as having significant growth potential [1] Market Developments - The analyst aims to provide in-depth analysis on a diverse range of companies, indicating a broad approach to market developments and investment opportunities [1]

Group 1: Overview of Key Companies - The Dow Jones Industrial Average includes industry-leading companies like Apple, Microsoft, Visa, and American Express, making them compelling options for long-term investment [1] - Apple has seen a decline of 22% year-to-date, while Microsoft has increased by nearly 7% [3] - Microsoft is investing heavily in AI and cloud computing, maintaining high operating margins and a strong balance sheet, which positions it close to an all-time high [5] Group 2: Apple Analysis - Apple is vulnerable to tariffs due to its reliance on China for product assembly, particularly with a 25% tariff on iPhones not made in the U.S. [6][7] - Despite tariff risks, Apple has upcoming AI-enhanced products that may attract consumer interest [8] - Apple's current valuation is reasonable with a P/E ratio of 30.4 and a forward P/E of 27.2, compared to a five-year median P/E of 29.3 [9] Group 3: Visa and American Express Comparison - Visa operates as a pure-play payment processor with a simpler, lower-risk business model, collecting fees based on transaction volume [11] - Visa converts around two-thirds of every dollar in sales into operating income, making it a highly profitable, capital-light business [12] - American Express, while taking on more risk, has a strong risk management track record and attracts affluent customers with high annual fees and premium perks [13] - American Express spends more on card member rewards, incentivizing usage and expanding its network [14] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Both Visa and American Express support consistent stock buybacks and growing dividends, making them solid long-term investment options [15] - Apple, Microsoft, Visa, and American Express are recommended for investors seeking quality growth stocks at reasonable valuations, despite their lower dividend yields due to rapid stock price growth [16][17]

本次发布会的重点为 Visa Intelligent Commerce(Visa智能商务)。这项创新计划将为开发人员及工程师开 放 Visa 支付网络，以建构亚太区第一代的 AI 商务模式。 加强战略合作： Visa Intelligent Commerce(Visa 智能商务)为 AI 平台带来一系列整合式 API 及商业伙伴 计划，支援开发人员安全和大规模地应用 Visa 的 AI 商务能力。 扩展稳定币的应用： Visa 为稳定币连结的支付卡提供进出通道(On and off-Ramps)，让用户可以透过 Visa 凭证以法定货币购买稳定币，并在接受 Visa 的商户网络中以稳定币付款。在亚太区，Visa 正在与 DCS Singapore、DTC Pay 及 StraitsX 合作，支援透过受监管的基础设施转换的稳定币支付卡产品。 无缝支付体验：Visa 于两年前与三井住友银行(SMBC)及三井住友信用卡公司(SMCC)合作，率先在日本 推出 Flex Credential 灵活凭证(当地名为 Olive)，让一般及中小型企业用户无缝切换扣账卡、信用卡、先 买后付等不同支付方式，改善信贷及现金流管理能 ...

此次战略合作产品的发布，在ITB展会现场引发行业高度关注。在全球数字化浪潮席卷下，以航空巨 头、国际酒店集团、头部OTA平台为代表的航旅企业正加速构建全球化服务网络。连连国际表示，接下 来，连连将以"技术+生态"双轮驱动战略为引领，持续深化数字支付技术创新，携手Visa等全球领先企 业构建航旅支付生态矩阵，通过"智付+"全球服务体系和全链路的一站式资金解决方案，重塑跨境航旅 市场，为全球商旅产业数字化转型注入跨境支付的创新动能。 Visa大中华区商务及资金流业务总经理王志云表示："与连连国际的合作是Visa在数字支付领域的创新范 式。我们将Visa全球支付网络的无缝连接能力，与连连对全球航旅产业的深度洞察相结合，希望创造跨 境支付服务的全球最佳实践，助力有跨境航旅需求的企业创造更多价值。" 连连国际服贸业务部负责人相筱滢表示："与Visa合作是连连国际快速响应市场变化、深度洞察用户需 求、进一步创新与升级服务的又一次体现"。 5月27-29日，在ITB上海国际旅游交易博览会上，连连国际与Visa宣布深化合作，共同推出数字化支付 产品"连连旅闪付VCC"，进一步提升跨境航旅支付的效率与体验。 这标志着跨境航旅支 ...

Core Insights - Visa's CFO, Chris Suh, discussed the current spending environment, highlighting consumer sentiment and economic indicators [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Employment numbers are reported to be strong, with stable wage growth contributing to a resilient consumer base [4]. - Inflation has moderated, which has positively impacted consumer spending behavior [4]. Group 2: Spending Trends - There is an observed uncertainty in consumer sentiment, which is reflected in the overall spending trends both domestically and in cross-border transactions [3]. - Despite the noise in the economic environment, Visa relies on factual data to assess the situation [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall spending environment shows resilience in consumer sentiment, with stable employment numbers and wage growth, while inflation has moderated [5][6] - Payments volume in the US has remained stable, tracking better than Q2, reflecting consumer resilience [7][10] - Cross-border payments have shown variability, with an expected normalization for the rest of the year based on March and April averages [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cross-border business is diversified, with no single corridor exceeding 25% of volumes, and e-commerce now constitutes about 40% of the business [12][14] - Flexible credentials have seen significant adoption, with holders spending 40% more than non-holders, indicating strong market interest [46][49] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Visa's consumer payments volume was approximately $11.5 trillion last year, with a significant addressable market of $23 trillion still available [70][71] - In high digital penetration markets like Norway and New Zealand, Visa is growing significantly above underlying PCE, indicating strong market performance [73][74] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Visa is focusing on enhancing its value-added services, which are projected to grow at 20%, contributing significantly to overall revenue [87][88] - The company is leveraging partnerships in the crypto space, particularly with stablecoins, to enhance its payment infrastructure and expand use cases [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the macro sensitivity of the cross-border business but emphasizes the strength of Visa's diversification strategy [12][18] - The company remains optimistic about growth prospects in consumer payments, driven by technological advancements and market share gains against domestic schemes [81][82] Other Important Information - Visa's value-added services are expected to tap into a $520 billion addressable market, with various portfolios showing strong growth potential [87][90] - The company has made significant investments in Europe, opening new offices and increasing merchant locations, which has led to share gains against domestic competitors [85][86] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about recession sensitivity in cross-border payments? - Visa's diversification across spend categories and geographical exposure mitigates recession sensitivity, with e-commerce being more resilient than travel [12][14] Question: What is the future of commerce with AI and Visa's role? - Visa is focusing on intelligent commerce, leveraging AI to enhance consumer experiences and reduce friction in transactions [23][31] Question: How does Visa view the adoption of stablecoins? - Visa sees stablecoins as a significant opportunity for revolutionizing money movement and is actively working on various use cases [32][33] Question: What is the growth outlook for Visa's value-added services? - The value-added services segment is expected to grow significantly, with a diverse portfolio and strong market momentum [87][90] Question: How is Visa addressing the commercial card market? - Visa holds a 40% market share in commercial cards and is focused on innovation to capture a larger portion of the $200 trillion addressable market [100]