Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the copper production of Vale increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 108,100 tons, marking the highest quarterly output since 2018, driven by record production at the Salobo mine and stable operations at Sossego and Canadian polymetallic assets [2] - Nickel production in Q4 2025 reached 46,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, supported by the successful commissioning of the second furnace at Onça Puma and capacity enhancements at the Voisey's Bay underground mine [2] - Iron ore production in Q4 2025 was 90,403,000 tons, up 6.0% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance at the Brucutu mine and ongoing production increases at the Capanema and VGR1 projects [2] Production Summary - Q4 2025 copper production was 108.1 thousand metric tons, a 6.2% increase from Q4 2024 and a 19.1% increase from Q3 2025 [9] - Q4 2025 nickel production was 46.2 thousand metric tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year but a 1.3% decrease quarter-on-quarter [9] - Q4 2025 iron ore production was 90,403 thousand metric tons, a 6.0% increase year-on-year but a 4.2% decrease quarter-on-quarter [9] Sales Summary - Q4 2025 copper sales were 106.9 thousand metric tons, an 8.0% increase year-on-year and an 18.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [10] - Q4 2025 nickel sales reached 49.6 thousand metric tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year and a 15.6% increase quarter-on-quarter [10] - Q4 2025 iron ore sales were 84,874 thousand metric tons, a 4.5% increase year-on-year but a 1.3% decrease quarter-on-quarter [10] Average Realization Prices - The average realization price for copper in Q4 2025 was $11,003 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.1% [11] - The average realization price for nickel in Q4 2025 was $15,015 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.8% [11] - The average realization price for iron ore fines in Q4 2025 was $95.4 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [11]

Economic Data - The People's Bank of China will release January CPI and PPI on February 11 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will publish the monthly report on January commodity residential sales price index on February 13 [1] - Financial data including January social financing and new RMB loans will also be released next week [1] - In the US, December retail sales month-on-month will be announced on February 10, followed by January unemployment rate and non-farm employment data on February 11 [1] Earnings Reports - The US earnings season continues with several notable companies reporting next week, including BP, Barclays, Marriott, Coca-Cola, and AstraZeneca on February 10 [2] - Other companies such as NetEase, Youdao, and Total will report on February 11, while TripAdvisor and Hyatt will report on February 12 [2] - In Hong Kong, SMIC will report earnings on February 10, followed by Budweiser APAC and NetEase Cloud Music on February 11 [2] New Stock Issuance - One new stock, Tongbao Optoelectronics, will be available for subscription on February 9, with Ai De Technology listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange on February 10 [2] - Several new stocks will list in Hong Kong, including Lanke Technology on February 9 and Aixin Yuanzhi on February 10 [2] Stock Unlocking - A total of 33 restricted stocks will be unlocked next week, with a total market value exceeding 36 billion yuan, led by Hunan YN with 24.096 billion yuan [3][10] Central Bank Operations - The central bank will have 4.055 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [3][10] Government Bonds - The Ministry of Finance will issue the first phase of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on February 11, with a scale of 14 billion yuan [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel mill's winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, demand expectations are weakening, and iron ore prices are under pressure [3] - Mainstream and non - mainstream iron ore shipments are both rising, and with the faster arrival of floating cargoes, the supply of iron ore has significantly increased [5] - Hot metal production has remained stable, with little fluctuation in rigid demand, but the steel mill's winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, leading to weaker demand expectations [5] - In a situation of both increasing supply and demand, the faster arrival of floating cargoes has caused the iron ore port inventory to continue to rise [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 761 (-29) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 760.5 (-31) yuan/ton [10] - The basis of the 05 contract was 33 (+1) yuan/ton; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was 18 (-1) yuan/ton [10] - The prices of various types of imported ores and iron concentrates in Rizhao Port have declined this week compared to last week [12] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream iron ore remains at a high level, and the cumulative year - on - year difference is significantly higher than that of last year [14][16] - The four major mines maintain normal shipping levels [18] - The domestic iron ore production is stable [29] 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - The steel mill's replenishment is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [31][32] - There are differences in the demand for different iron ore varieties [34] - Scrap steel has a substitution effect on iron ore [36] 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - The faster arrival of floating cargoes has led to increased supply and rapid inventory accumulation [38] - The inventory of Australian iron ore has increased significantly [39] 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - Rising oil prices have led to an increase in shipping costs [41]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices continued to decline from their highs, and as short - term market sentiment and capital disturbances came to an end, prices gradually returned to the fundamental logic. The supply side continued to contribute significant increments, the supply remained loose, and port inventories of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly. The domestic terminal steel demand was unlikely to improve significantly. After the Spring Festival, the market trading logic would focus on the recovery of terminal steel demand in the first half of the year, which might fall short of expectations. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals was expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore was unlikely to be sustained. Overall, the current market was mainly dominated by macro and capital factors. This week, the macro sentiment cooled, the iron ore price valuation was moderately high, and the iron ore price was expected to be weak [4]. - The trading strategy suggested a weak - running trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The iron ore price was expected to run weakly. The single - side trading was expected to be weak, while arbitrage and options trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Iron Core Logic Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% or 15 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.82 million tons, a 7.4% or 6.1 million - ton increase year - on - year, and Brazil's were 6.5 million tons, a 5.5% or 1.7 million - ton increase. The shipments of major overseas mines remained at a high level year - on - year. In 2025, 1.26 billion tons of iron ore were imported, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has continued to grow [7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 7.3 million tons. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, about 20 million tons for the whole year. It is expected to be in the production ramping - up stage in 2026 and enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027 [9]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly, resulting in a 4 - million - ton increase in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory compared with the previous week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern remains loose. Since January, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, with an inventory accumulation of about 15 million tons [11]. - **Domestic Terminal Steel Demand**: In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate new construction was 19%, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market improved marginally but remained at the bottom, while the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly. In the first half of 2026, the demand might fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been declining, and it is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026 on the high - base background of the first half of 2025. Overseas, in 2025, the consumption of iron ore decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of iron elements increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year. From the second quarter to the end of the year, overseas iron - element consumption was at a high level and continued to contribute increments. India's crude - steel output increased by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year in 2025, and its demand remained at a relatively high level [13]. Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the prices of PB powder and Carajás fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [19]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: It presents the import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. - **Profit of Mainstream Steel Mills in East China**: It includes the cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China, the iron - making cost (excluding tax), the cash cost of hot - rolled coils, the cost of billets (excluding tax), and the cash cost of rebar [23]. - **Domestic - Overseas US Dollar Spread**: It shows the spreads between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore to domestic iron ore [25]. - **Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread**: It provides data on the basis between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. - **Global Four Major Mines' Shipments**: It shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: It includes the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at ports [31].

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) is recognized for its low forward PE ratios and has seen a significant stock price increase, leading to an upgraded price target by BofA Securities from $15 to $17 while maintaining a Buy rating [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Ratings - Vale's shares rose by 47% in 2025, outperforming its industry peers [1]. - BofA Securities has increased its price target for Vale S.A. to $17, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1]. Group 2: Operational Strengths - The firm highlighted Vale's solid operational execution, robust free cash flow (FCF) yields, and de-risking as key factors for its stock's outperformance in 2025 [2]. - Vale has regained its status as the world's leading iron ore miner, indicating strong market positioning [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - BofA identified five reasons for Vale S.A. being a top pick for 2026: portfolio versatility, growth in iron ore and copper, improved cost and spending discipline, stronger cash generation compared to competitors, and advancements in operational de-risking [3]. - Vale S.A. operates in the production and sale of iron ore and iron ore pellets, essential for steelmaking, both in Brazil and internationally [3].

Company Overview - Vale S.A., founded in 1942 and based in Rio de Janeiro, is a major global mining company with operations across the Americas, Europe, and Asia, primarily known for iron ore, nickel, and copper, while also producing by-products like gold and silver [1] - The company is investing in renewable energy through its energy transition segment, aiming for a more sustainable mining future [1] Market Performance - Vale's stock has surged 90% over the past 52 weeks, reaching a recent high of $17.34, and has increased 112% from an April low of $8.06 [5] - The stock has shown strong momentum with gains of 46% over the past three months and 33% in the last month [5] Financial Performance - In Q3, Vale reported a net profit of $2.69 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, with net operating revenue climbing 9% annually to $10.4 billion [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose 21% year-over-year to $4.4 billion, exceeding forecasts [8] - Recurring free cash flow reached $1.6 billion, significantly higher than the previous year, while total free cash flow surged 337% year-over-year to $2.6 billion [9] Operational Highlights - Sales of iron ore, copper, and nickel increased by 5%, 20%, and 6% year-over-year, respectively, with iron ore production hitting its highest quarterly level since 2018 [10] - Capital spending totaled $1.3 billion, aligning with the company's 2025 guidance of $5.4 billion to $5.7 billion [11] Future Outlook - Vale is expected to release its fiscal year results soon, with EPS anticipated to rise 15% year-over-year to $2.09 [12] - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for Vale, with a consensus indicating potential upside from the current stock price [12]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the narrative around colored metals is shifting from being viewed as traditional cyclical stocks to becoming priority beneficiaries in the AI-driven economy by 2026 [5][9] - A significant transformation in energy mediums is underway, with copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel playing crucial roles in this transition, leading to a perfect storm of supply and demand dynamics [8][9] - Investment strategies in colored metals should focus on securing scarce resources rather than merely speculating on price fluctuations [28] Group 1: Metal Analysis - Copper is identified as the "physical base tax" for AI and energy transitions, with a long development cycle and declining ore grades leading to a supply crunch [9][10] - Aluminum is positioned as "solid-state electricity," benefiting from its lightweight properties in electric vehicles, with demand expected to rise significantly by 2026 [11][12] - Tin is described as the "nerve endings" of the semiconductor industry, with its demand surging due to increased complexity in hardware architectures [14] - Nickel is highlighted as the "energy core" for high-density batteries, regaining its valuation power as demand for high-nickel batteries increases [15][17] Group 2: Company Insights - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is noted for its cost control capabilities and operational leverage, making it a top choice for investors seeking exposure to copper [23] - BHP is critiqued for its internal hedging issues, where profits from copper are offset by losses in iron ore, making it less attractive for investors focused on AI-related gains [24] - Alcoa (AA) is recognized for its strategic shift towards low-cost, renewable energy sources for aluminum production, positioning it well for future profitability [25] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article suggests a shift in investment strategy from "paper assets" to "physical sovereignty," emphasizing the importance of securing scarce resources in the colored metals sector [28] - Recommended core investments include FCX and Rio Tinto (RIO), with Alcoa (AA) as an aggressive play due to its potential for energy arbitrage [29][31] - Vale (VALE) is presented as a defensive option, with significant nickel resources that could be undervalued in the current market [30]

格隆汇1月29日丨中金公司维持淡水河谷"跑赢行业"评级，目标价20.5美元。 ...

Group 1 - The company maintains a "outperform" rating for Vale S.A. [1] - The target price set for Vale S.A. is $20.5 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On January 28, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after a decline, recovering part of the previous day's losses. The closing price of J2605 was 1684 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the trading volume was 13,284 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1134.5 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%, and the trading volume was 714,203 lots [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coke 2605 contract continued to decline, but the J - value was significantly dull. The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coking coal 2605 contract showed a differentiated trend, with the J - value and K - value turning up and the D - value continuing to decline. The green columns of the MACD of the daily line of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts enlarged for the second consecutive trading day [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On January 28, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1455 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1483 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1640 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1420 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1430 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1660 yuan/ton, all with no change [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: The regulatory policy tightening led to the decline of metal prices with poor fundamentals. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the coal - coke prices rebounded after reaching a low [10]. - Fundamentals: Independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 5 weeks, and the loss amplitude has been expanding for 3 weeks. The coke production has decreased slightly for 2 consecutive weeks after increasing in the first 2 weeks of the year. The port coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the steel mill coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early October last year, while the coking enterprise coke inventory has increased after decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded since January 12, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically remained above 190,000 tons recently. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since the end of January last year, while the coking coal inventory of steel enterprises and ports has been relatively stable [10]. - Forecast: The news has a dual impact on the coal - coke futures prices, but the fundamentals change little, resulting in the relative stability of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise. It is advisable to try the strategy of buying for hedging or investment at low prices after the callback stabilizes [11]. Group 5: Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the total assets of central enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with a total profit of 2.5 trillion yuan, fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan, and tax payment of 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025. The investment in strategic emerging industries was 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.8% of the total investment [12]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12]. - The number and production capacity of open - pit coal mines in China will continue to increase, and their position in the energy supply system will become more important [12]. - By January 25, Wuhai Energy Company completed 1.2284 million tons of raw coal production and 1.0239 million tons of commercial coal sales, achieving a good start [13]. - Haohua Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 419 million yuan and 569 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 45.08% - 59.55% [13]. - Baofeng Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 11 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 73.57% - 89.34% [13]. - In 2025, the raw coal production of large - scale industrial enterprises in Ningxia was 10.28106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13]. - In 2025, Shaanxi added 30.95 million tons/year of coal production capacity, and 10.04 million kilowatts of renewable energy installed capacity [13]. - The iron ore "water - rail intermodal transport" business of Hubei Energy Jingzhou Coal Port was officially launched [13]. - Shanxi is promoting economic development and "major project construction year" work [13]. - Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding signed a contract to build 4 + 2 LNG carriers [14]. - Huaibei Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be about 1.495 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.21% [14]. - China National Energy Group opened a new coal supply channel to the central - China region [14]. - Northeast Power Grid's power consumption load reached a record high in late December 2025 [14]. - The daily power generation of Datang Huayin Electric Power's thermal power units reached a record high [14]. - Shanxi Coking expects to be profitable in 2025, but its net profit will decline by more than 50% year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's effective supply of coking coal was close to 480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The net import volume of coking coal decreased for the first time since 2021, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [14]. - In 2025, the freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port reached 42.433 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, a record high [14]. - The anti - dumping measures for stainless steel welded pipes originating from China in the Eurasian Economic Union will be extended to November 12, 2026 [14]. - Mongolia plans to produce 90 million tons of coal, 1.9 million tons of copper, and 9.4 million tons of iron ore in 2026 [14]. - India and the EU reached a free - trade agreement on January 27 [14]. - India's coal production target for the 2026 - 27 fiscal year is 1.31 billion tons [15]. - A barge collision accident in Indonesia may affect coal barge transportation [15]. - In 2025, Brazil's Vale's iron ore production reached 336 million tons, a new high since 2018 [15]. - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and oil [15]. - In 2025, South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal's coal export volume increased by 11% year - on - year to 57.66 million tons, a four - year high [15]. - India Oil Corporation plans to purchase at least 24 million barrels of Brazilian crude oil in the next two years [15].