四大矿商2025年度产销报告出炉，淡水河谷时隔七年重登 铁矿石产量榜首。数据显示，2025年力拓皮 尔巴拉矿区铁矿石产量3.27亿吨，同比下跌0.21%；淡水河谷铁矿石产量达3.36亿吨，同比增长2.56%， 创2018年以来新高；必和必拓产量2.92亿吨，同比增0.8%；福德士河铁矿石加工量2.03 亿吨，同比增长 5.41%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. is anticipated to report year-over-year growth in revenues and earnings for Q4 2025, with sales expected to reach $10.75 billion, a 6% increase from the previous year, and earnings per share projected to grow by 185% to 57 cents [1][4]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's sales is $10.75 billion, indicating a 6% increase from the year-ago quarter [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has increased by 24% over the past 60 days to 57 cents per share, reflecting a solid 185% year-over-year growth [1]. - Vale's earnings performance has been mixed, with two earnings misses and two beats in the last four quarters, averaging a surprise of 1.99% [2][3]. Production and Sales Insights - Iron ore production rose by 6% year-over-year to approximately 90.4 million tons, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu plant and ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects [6]. - Total iron ore sales increased by 4.5% year-over-year to 84.9 million tons, with iron ore fines sales up 5.2% to 73.6 million tons [7]. - Nickel production was 46.2 thousand tons, up 1.5% year-over-year, while copper production increased by 6% to 108.1 thousand tons [8]. Pricing Trends - The average realized price for iron ore fines was $95.4 per ton, up 2.6% year-over-year, while realized prices for iron ore pellets declined by 8% to $131.4 per ton [7]. - The average realized price for copper operations was $11,003 per ton, reflecting a 19.8% year-over-year increase [9]. Market Position and Valuation - Vale's shares have gained 75.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 75.4% and other major iron miners [11]. - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 1.87, which is a premium compared to the industry's 1.43 [12]. Strategic Outlook - Vale plans to invest $4 billion in capital expenditures for its Iron Ore Solutions business in 2026 and $3.9 billion annually from 2027, aiming to increase production capacity to 335–345 million tons by 2026 and 360 million tons by 2030 [14]. - The company is also increasing investments in base metals to capitalize on the energy transition, supported by strong cost discipline and declining fixed costs [14][18].

供应格局深度调整 2025年，铁矿石市场呈现基本面逐步宽松、供应格局深度调整的运行特征，全球四大矿山产销表现明显分 化。总体来看，2025年四大矿山铁矿石合计产量为11.58亿吨，同比增长1.80%；合计销量为11.32亿吨，同比 增长1.11%。 纵观全年，澳大利亚飓风灾害、几内亚西芒杜铁矿项目投产、铁矿石价格谈判博弈等一系列关键事件，对四 大矿山企业的铁矿石短期供给调度与长期产能布局均造成了不同程度的影响，成为左右全年产销格局的重要 因素。 力拓：逐步摆脱飓风影响 一季度，强热带气旋活动频繁，四次飓风接连来袭，导致当地铁路与港口被迫关闭，铁矿石生产与发运工作 大幅放缓。力拓一季度铁矿石产销量环比显著下滑。其中，产量下降10.5%，至6977万吨；销量下降9.4%， 至7074万吨。力拓港口所处地理位置受恶劣天气冲击明显，经估算，此次飓风造成的铁矿石产量损失约为 1300万吨。后续，力拓迅速启动缓解方案并推进港口修缮工作，于3月份恢复铁矿石正常生产运营。 二季度，天气影响减弱，生产经营逐步回暖。其中，皮尔巴拉矿区产量为8374万吨，创2018年以来该矿区二 季度产量新高；加拿大铁矿公司（IOC）优化采矿作业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the copper production of Vale increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 108,100 tons, marking the highest quarterly output since 2018, driven by record production at the Salobo mine and stable operations at Sossego and Canadian polymetallic assets [2] - Nickel production in Q4 2025 reached 46,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, supported by the successful commissioning of the second furnace at Onça Puma and capacity enhancements at the Voisey's Bay underground mine [2] - Iron ore production in Q4 2025 was 90,403,000 tons, up 6.0% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance at the Brucutu mine and ongoing production increases at the Capanema and VGR1 projects [2] Production Summary - Q4 2025 copper production was 108.1 thousand metric tons, a 6.2% increase from Q4 2024 and a 19.1% increase from Q3 2025 [9] - Q4 2025 nickel production was 46.2 thousand metric tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year but a 1.3% decrease quarter-on-quarter [9] - Q4 2025 iron ore production was 90,403 thousand metric tons, a 6.0% increase year-on-year but a 4.2% decrease quarter-on-quarter [9] Sales Summary - Q4 2025 copper sales were 106.9 thousand metric tons, an 8.0% increase year-on-year and an 18.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [10] - Q4 2025 nickel sales reached 49.6 thousand metric tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year and a 15.6% increase quarter-on-quarter [10] - Q4 2025 iron ore sales were 84,874 thousand metric tons, a 4.5% increase year-on-year but a 1.3% decrease quarter-on-quarter [10] Average Realization Prices - The average realization price for copper in Q4 2025 was $11,003 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.1% [11] - The average realization price for nickel in Q4 2025 was $15,015 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.8% [11] - The average realization price for iron ore fines in Q4 2025 was $95.4 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [11]

Economic Data - The People's Bank of China will release January CPI and PPI on February 11 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will publish the monthly report on January commodity residential sales price index on February 13 [1] - Financial data including January social financing and new RMB loans will also be released next week [1] - In the US, December retail sales month-on-month will be announced on February 10, followed by January unemployment rate and non-farm employment data on February 11 [1] Earnings Reports - The US earnings season continues with several notable companies reporting next week, including BP, Barclays, Marriott, Coca-Cola, and AstraZeneca on February 10 [2] - Other companies such as NetEase, Youdao, and Total will report on February 11, while TripAdvisor and Hyatt will report on February 12 [2] - In Hong Kong, SMIC will report earnings on February 10, followed by Budweiser APAC and NetEase Cloud Music on February 11 [2] New Stock Issuance - One new stock, Tongbao Optoelectronics, will be available for subscription on February 9, with Ai De Technology listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange on February 10 [2] - Several new stocks will list in Hong Kong, including Lanke Technology on February 9 and Aixin Yuanzhi on February 10 [2] Stock Unlocking - A total of 33 restricted stocks will be unlocked next week, with a total market value exceeding 36 billion yuan, led by Hunan YN with 24.096 billion yuan [3][10] Central Bank Operations - The central bank will have 4.055 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [3][10] Government Bonds - The Ministry of Finance will issue the first phase of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on February 11, with a scale of 14 billion yuan [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel mill's winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, demand expectations are weakening, and iron ore prices are under pressure [3] - Mainstream and non - mainstream iron ore shipments are both rising, and with the faster arrival of floating cargoes, the supply of iron ore has significantly increased [5] - Hot metal production has remained stable, with little fluctuation in rigid demand, but the steel mill's winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, leading to weaker demand expectations [5] - In a situation of both increasing supply and demand, the faster arrival of floating cargoes has caused the iron ore port inventory to continue to rise [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 761 (-29) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 760.5 (-31) yuan/ton [10] - The basis of the 05 contract was 33 (+1) yuan/ton; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was 18 (-1) yuan/ton [10] - The prices of various types of imported ores and iron concentrates in Rizhao Port have declined this week compared to last week [12] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream iron ore remains at a high level, and the cumulative year - on - year difference is significantly higher than that of last year [14][16] - The four major mines maintain normal shipping levels [18] - The domestic iron ore production is stable [29] 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - The steel mill's replenishment is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [31][32] - There are differences in the demand for different iron ore varieties [34] - Scrap steel has a substitution effect on iron ore [36] 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - The faster arrival of floating cargoes has led to increased supply and rapid inventory accumulation [38] - The inventory of Australian iron ore has increased significantly [39] 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - Rising oil prices have led to an increase in shipping costs [41]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices continued to decline from their highs, and as short - term market sentiment and capital disturbances came to an end, prices gradually returned to the fundamental logic. The supply side continued to contribute significant increments, the supply remained loose, and port inventories of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly. The domestic terminal steel demand was unlikely to improve significantly. After the Spring Festival, the market trading logic would focus on the recovery of terminal steel demand in the first half of the year, which might fall short of expectations. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals was expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore was unlikely to be sustained. Overall, the current market was mainly dominated by macro and capital factors. This week, the macro sentiment cooled, the iron ore price valuation was moderately high, and the iron ore price was expected to be weak [4]. - The trading strategy suggested a weak - running trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The iron ore price was expected to run weakly. The single - side trading was expected to be weak, while arbitrage and options trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Iron Core Logic Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% or 15 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.82 million tons, a 7.4% or 6.1 million - ton increase year - on - year, and Brazil's were 6.5 million tons, a 5.5% or 1.7 million - ton increase. The shipments of major overseas mines remained at a high level year - on - year. In 2025, 1.26 billion tons of iron ore were imported, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has continued to grow [7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 7.3 million tons. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, about 20 million tons for the whole year. It is expected to be in the production ramping - up stage in 2026 and enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027 [9]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly, resulting in a 4 - million - ton increase in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory compared with the previous week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern remains loose. Since January, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, with an inventory accumulation of about 15 million tons [11]. - **Domestic Terminal Steel Demand**: In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate new construction was 19%, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market improved marginally but remained at the bottom, while the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly. In the first half of 2026, the demand might fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been declining, and it is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026 on the high - base background of the first half of 2025. Overseas, in 2025, the consumption of iron ore decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of iron elements increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year. From the second quarter to the end of the year, overseas iron - element consumption was at a high level and continued to contribute increments. India's crude - steel output increased by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year in 2025, and its demand remained at a relatively high level [13]. Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the prices of PB powder and Carajás fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [19]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: It presents the import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. - **Profit of Mainstream Steel Mills in East China**: It includes the cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China, the iron - making cost (excluding tax), the cash cost of hot - rolled coils, the cost of billets (excluding tax), and the cash cost of rebar [23]. - **Domestic - Overseas US Dollar Spread**: It shows the spreads between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore to domestic iron ore [25]. - **Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread**: It provides data on the basis between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. - **Global Four Major Mines' Shipments**: It shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: It includes the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at ports [31].

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) is recognized for its low forward PE ratios and has seen a significant stock price increase, leading to an upgraded price target by BofA Securities from $15 to $17 while maintaining a Buy rating [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Ratings - Vale's shares rose by 47% in 2025, outperforming its industry peers [1]. - BofA Securities has increased its price target for Vale S.A. to $17, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1]. Group 2: Operational Strengths - The firm highlighted Vale's solid operational execution, robust free cash flow (FCF) yields, and de-risking as key factors for its stock's outperformance in 2025 [2]. - Vale has regained its status as the world's leading iron ore miner, indicating strong market positioning [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - BofA identified five reasons for Vale S.A. being a top pick for 2026: portfolio versatility, growth in iron ore and copper, improved cost and spending discipline, stronger cash generation compared to competitors, and advancements in operational de-risking [3]. - Vale S.A. operates in the production and sale of iron ore and iron ore pellets, essential for steelmaking, both in Brazil and internationally [3].

Company Overview - Vale S.A., founded in 1942 and based in Rio de Janeiro, is a major global mining company with operations across the Americas, Europe, and Asia, primarily known for iron ore, nickel, and copper, while also producing by-products like gold and silver [1] - The company is investing in renewable energy through its energy transition segment, aiming for a more sustainable mining future [1] Market Performance - Vale's stock has surged 90% over the past 52 weeks, reaching a recent high of $17.34, and has increased 112% from an April low of $8.06 [5] - The stock has shown strong momentum with gains of 46% over the past three months and 33% in the last month [5] Financial Performance - In Q3, Vale reported a net profit of $2.69 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, with net operating revenue climbing 9% annually to $10.4 billion [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose 21% year-over-year to $4.4 billion, exceeding forecasts [8] - Recurring free cash flow reached $1.6 billion, significantly higher than the previous year, while total free cash flow surged 337% year-over-year to $2.6 billion [9] Operational Highlights - Sales of iron ore, copper, and nickel increased by 5%, 20%, and 6% year-over-year, respectively, with iron ore production hitting its highest quarterly level since 2018 [10] - Capital spending totaled $1.3 billion, aligning with the company's 2025 guidance of $5.4 billion to $5.7 billion [11] Future Outlook - Vale is expected to release its fiscal year results soon, with EPS anticipated to rise 15% year-over-year to $2.09 [12] - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for Vale, with a consensus indicating potential upside from the current stock price [12]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the narrative around colored metals is shifting from being viewed as traditional cyclical stocks to becoming priority beneficiaries in the AI-driven economy by 2026 [5][9] - A significant transformation in energy mediums is underway, with copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel playing crucial roles in this transition, leading to a perfect storm of supply and demand dynamics [8][9] - Investment strategies in colored metals should focus on securing scarce resources rather than merely speculating on price fluctuations [28] Group 1: Metal Analysis - Copper is identified as the "physical base tax" for AI and energy transitions, with a long development cycle and declining ore grades leading to a supply crunch [9][10] - Aluminum is positioned as "solid-state electricity," benefiting from its lightweight properties in electric vehicles, with demand expected to rise significantly by 2026 [11][12] - Tin is described as the "nerve endings" of the semiconductor industry, with its demand surging due to increased complexity in hardware architectures [14] - Nickel is highlighted as the "energy core" for high-density batteries, regaining its valuation power as demand for high-nickel batteries increases [15][17] Group 2: Company Insights - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is noted for its cost control capabilities and operational leverage, making it a top choice for investors seeking exposure to copper [23] - BHP is critiqued for its internal hedging issues, where profits from copper are offset by losses in iron ore, making it less attractive for investors focused on AI-related gains [24] - Alcoa (AA) is recognized for its strategic shift towards low-cost, renewable energy sources for aluminum production, positioning it well for future profitability [25] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article suggests a shift in investment strategy from "paper assets" to "physical sovereignty," emphasizing the importance of securing scarce resources in the colored metals sector [28] - Recommended core investments include FCX and Rio Tinto (RIO), with Alcoa (AA) as an aggressive play due to its potential for energy arbitrage [29][31] - Vale (VALE) is presented as a defensive option, with significant nickel resources that could be undervalued in the current market [30]