1月5日（周一），据当地媒体Bisnis.com周一报道，印尼矿业部表示，在政府审核矿企年度产量配额计 划期间，矿企可在第一季度完成其拟议的2026年产量的25%。该报道援引了一封部长的信件内容。 在矿产丰富的印尼，所有矿企都必须向政府提交一份年度生产计划，被称为RKAB，以获得政府的批 准，确定他们每年可以生产多少。 从2026年期，印尼将RKABs审批期限从"三年一审"改回"一年一审"，政府已下令矿企重新申请之前发放 的2026年和2027年配额。 根据10月份公布的部委规定，在新配额的审批过程中，矿企可以参考之前批准的2026年配额，直到2026 年3月底，以决定生产多少。 配额期限的缩短给行业造成了不确定性，镍矿商淡水河谷印尼公司（Vale Indonesia）在上周五表示，暂 停采矿活动，因为他们的RKAB尚未获得批准。 矿业部副部长Yuliot Tanjung周五表示，相关审批"目前正在整合当中"，镍产量配额将进行调整，以满足 国内冶炼厂的需求。 矿业部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，政府计划今年大幅减少矿业产量配额以支撑价格，包括一直低迷的煤炭 价格。 ...

Group 1 - Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) is recognized as one of the best stocks under $25 to buy, with RBC Capital upgrading its rating from Sector Perform to Outperform and raising the price target to $14.20 from $11 due to increased iron ore price estimates by 13% for 2026-2029 [1] - RBC predicts Vale's dividend yield for fiscal year 2026 to be around 9%, significantly higher than the 4% yield projected by competitors [2] - Vale's subsidiary, Vale Base Metals, has entered into an agreement with Glencore Canada to evaluate a potential brownfield copper development project in the Sudbury Basin, which is expected to generate 880 kt of copper over 21 years [3] Group 2 - The project with Glencore involves expanding the current mine shaft and creating new drifts to access surrounding copper deposits, highlighting Vale's strategic initiatives in resource development [3] - Vale S.A. produces and exports a variety of materials including copper, pellets, iron ore, manganese, and iron alloys, with operations segmented into Energy Transition Materials, Iron Solutions, and Coal and Others [3]

Group 1 - Vale S.A. is considered one of the top cheap stocks under $20, with a price target raised to $13 from $12 by Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners, maintaining an Equal Weight rating due to supply constraints potentially supporting aluminum and copper prices through fiscal Q3 2026 [1] - Vale S.A. signed an agreement with Caterpillar and Sotreq on December 8 for the expansion of its fleet of autonomous haul trucks in iron ore operations in the Northern System, located in the Carajás region of Pará [2] - The Northern System currently operates 14 autonomous haul trucks with a capacity of up to 320 tons, and the new agreement aims to expand the fleet to around 90 autonomous trucks by 2028, utilizing Cat® MineStar™ Command for hauling [4] Group 2 - The technology for autonomous haul trucks will be gradually expanded over the next five years at the Serra Norte and Serra Sul units, enhancing safety standards, operational efficiency, and sustainability [3] - Vale S.A. produces and exports various materials including copper, pellets, iron ore, manganese, and iron alloys, with operations divided into Energy Transition Materials, Iron Solutions, and Coal and Others segments [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore supply-demand relationship is statically loose. The supply increase is mainly from non-mainstream mines and those in Guinea. The domestic demand faces downward pressure, while overseas demand will see a slight increase. Port inventories will continue to accumulate, and iron ore prices may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong due to supply contraction, steel mill复产, winter storage, and construction start expectations. In the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure as supply increases and demand remains weak [3][44]. - In terms of spot-futures and inter-month arbitrage, the mismatch between the realization of supply increase expectations and the fluctuation rhythm of hot metal production may bring arbitrage opportunities. For example, in March, attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - period positive spread and spot - futures reverse spread [3][44]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, if the supply increase is realized, iron ore may change from a relatively strong variety in the black commodities to a relatively weak one. Opportunities for the contraction of the ratio of iron ore to coking coal and coke can be considered, as well as the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio after the supply increase of iron ore is realized [3][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Weak at Home, Strong Abroad, with a Slight Steady Increase 1.1 Domestic Demand: Still Under Pressure - In 2025, from January to November, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 5.3%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the decline widened by 1.0 percentage points compared with the first 10 months. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year from January to November, but the growth rate slowed down [8][11][12]. - In 2025, China's steel consumption was 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In 2026, the steel demand is expected to be 790 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Due to the real estate market not bottoming out, the demand for construction steel in 2026 may be weaker than expected, with the national steel demand decreasing by more than 2.0% year - on - year [17]. - In 2026, constrained by the decline in domestic steel demand, steel mills may find it difficult to maintain profits under inventory pressure. According to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the pig iron output is estimated to be 855 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons [23][26]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Steady Growth - The Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute predicts that the global steel consumption in 2025 was 1.719 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and in 2026, the global steel demand will be 1.736 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2026 will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, mainly driven by the strong performance of India, some ASEAN, and Middle East and North African countries [24]. - Considering China's large base of steel demand, it is expected that the global steel demand will increase by 0.8% year - on - year in 2026. The steel demand of countries other than China will increase by 3.5% year - on - year, which translates to an increase of 33.5 million tons in 62% iron ore demand [24][26]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the iron ore demand in 2026 is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons. Overseas, the iron ore demand is expected to increase by 33.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons in 2026 [26]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - Mainstream Mines are Stable, Focus on Increment from Emerging Mines 2.1 Australian and Brazilian Mainstream Mines: Goal - Oriented, with Steady Growth - In 2025, the world's four major iron ore giants all achieved or exceeded their annual production or shipment targets. In 2026, the total output of the four major mines is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with the actual output in 2025. The supply is abundant, and the sales volume in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half, with a total sequential increase of 36.6 million tons [27][30][38]. - Vale and Rio Tinto will be the main contributors to the increase in the second half of the year, with sequential increases of 15 million tons and 13 million tons respectively. BHP's increase is the smallest, only 1.48 million tons, indicating limited production growth space. FMG's sales volume will increase by 7.12 million tons in the second half of the year, showing moderate expansion [30][38][40]. 2.2 Foreign Non - Mainstream Mines and Domestic Mines: Guinea and India Contribute the Main Increment - In 2025, the iron ore shipments from non - Australian and non - Brazilian regions increased significantly. In 2026, the Simandou project in Guinea will contribute the main increment, with an estimated output of 20 million tons from the north and south blocks combined. India's iron ore production and sales are expected to continue to grow. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines in 2026 is 34 million tons [33]. - In 2025, the output of domestic iron concentrate was estimated to be 243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8 million tons. In 2026, the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is expected to be 2 - 3.5 million tons, mainly from the technological transformation and expansion of leading enterprises. However, due to resource, environmental protection, and international ore price constraints, the possibility of significant growth is low [35]. 2.3 Supply Summary - The total output of the four major foreign mines is expected to increase by 18 million tons in 2026. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines is 34 million tons, and the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is 2 - 3.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore supply will increase in 2026, with an estimated year - on - year increment of 54 - 55.5 million tons [38][40]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Steel Mills Control Inventories, Ports Face Pressure 3.1 Port Inventory: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation - At the end of December, the inventory of 45 ports was 159 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 6.71%. In 2026, the iron ore supply - demand relationship is statically loose, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate [41]. 3.2 Steel Mills: Winter Storage is Delayed, and the Low - Inventory Model Continues - The current inventory level is at a low point in 2025. Due to steel mill maintenance in December and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the low - inventory model of steel mills remains unchanged. It is expected that steel mills will start to replenish inventory from January to February 2026 and then maintain a relatively low - inventory structure [42]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary and Trading Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year - In terms of supply - demand pattern, in 2026, the global iron ore supply will increase by about 54 - 55.5 million tons, the demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. Steel mills maintain a cautious approach and adopt a low - inventory management strategy for raw materials [44]. - Overall, the iron ore price may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong, while in the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to spot - futures and inter - month arbitrage in March, as well as inter - variety arbitrage opportunities such as the contraction of the iron ore - coking coal/coke ratio and the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio [3][44][45].

Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Whil ...

Group 1: Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto is an international mining company with interests in various minerals and has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rio Tinto's current year earnings increased by 5.8% over the last 60 days [1] - Rio Tinto's shares gained 21.8% over the last three months, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 3.3% [2] - The company possesses a Momentum Score of A [2] Group 2: Invesco Mortgage Capital - Invesco Mortgage Capital is a real estate investment trust focusing on financing and managing mortgage-backed securities and loans, with a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Invesco Mortgage Capital's current year earnings increased by 4% over the last 60 days [2] - Invesco Mortgage Capital's shares gained 20.5% over the last three months, also outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 3.3% [3] - The company possesses a Momentum Score of A [3] Group 3: VALE - VALE is one of the world's largest producers of iron ore and has a Zacks Rank 1 [3][4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VALE's current year earnings increased by 7.5% over the last 60 days [3] - VALE's shares gained 21.3% over the last three months, again outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 3.3% [4] - The company possesses a Momentum Score of B [4]

分组1 - Zacks Premium offers various tools for investors, including daily updates on Zacks Rank and Industry Rank, access to the Zacks 1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens to enhance investment confidence [1][2] - The Zacks Style Scores are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on value, growth, and momentum, helping investors identify stocks likely to outperform the market in the next 30 days [2][3] 分组2 - The Value Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using ratios like P/E, PEG, and Price/Sales to highlight attractive investment opportunities [3] - The Growth Score assesses a company's financial strength and future outlook by examining projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [4] - The Momentum Score identifies optimal times to invest based on price trends and earnings estimate changes [5] - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores, providing a comprehensive indicator for investors seeking value, growth, and momentum [6] 分组3 - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that utilizes earnings estimate revisions to help investors build successful portfolios, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks achieving an average annual return of +23.81% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7][9] - Investors are encouraged to focus on stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B for the highest probability of success [9][10] 分组4 - Vale S.A. is a major mining company based in Brazil with a market capitalization of approximately $53.5 billion, producing iron ore, copper, nickel, and other minerals [11] - Vale holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and has a VGM Score of B, indicating a stable position in the market [11] - The company has a Momentum Style Score of A, with shares increasing by 5.1% over the past four weeks, and analysts have revised earnings estimates higher for fiscal 2025 [12]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the weekly data of iron ore arrivals and shipments in the 51st week of 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The domestic arrivals at 47 ports decreased to 27.902 million tons, with a week - on - week drop of 1.379 million tons, showing a decline from the high level. The arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores decreased, while non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores reached a high for the year [2] - Overseas ore shipments decreased again, with the global total at 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week drop of 1.2805 million tons, also declining from the high. The decrease mainly came from major miners, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores were at a high for the year [2] - According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores at domestic ports are expected to be stable, and overseas ore supply is relatively active [2] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Brief Review - Domestic 47 - port arrivals decreased, with Australian and Brazilian ores dropping and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores increasing. Overseas shipments decreased due to major miners, but non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores remained at a high [2] 2. Ore Arrival and Shipment Data - Arrival data: Northern six - port arrivals were 12.564 million tons, down 102,100 tons week - on - week (-7.52%); 45 - port arrivals were 26.467 million tons, down 76,700 tons (-2.82%); 47 - port arrivals were 27.902 million tons, down 137,900 tons (-4.71%). Among them, Australian ore at 47 ports decreased by 93,800 tons, Brazilian ore by 125,200 tons, and other ores increased by 81,100 tons [3] - Shipment data: Global shipments were 34.645 million tons, down 1.2805 million tons (-3.56%). Australian shipments decreased by 102,010 tons, Brazilian by 48,790 tons, and other regions increased by 22,760 tons. Among major miners, VALE's shipments decreased by 67,610 tons, RIO by 10,490 tons, BHP by 5,630 tons, and FMG by 66,940 tons [3] 3. Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrivals, global iron ore shipments, shipments of the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrivals of iron ore [4][6][8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Supply - Static calculations show that from January to November 2025, China's iron ore imports first decreased and then increased, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76 million tons (1.5%) to 1.14 billion tons, and the annual total may exceed 1.249 billion tons. The new production capacities of mines in Australia and Brazil will be reflected in the fourth-quarter shipments, and imports are expected to continue a slight increase of 1.1% in 2026 [7][125]. - In 2025, China's cumulative iron ore output is expected to reach 295 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.71%. The output rebounded in the fourth quarter as the pressure on safety and environmental protection eased. The output of domestic iron concentrate is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year in 2026 [7][125]. - The pricing benchmark of iron ore will decrease from 62% iron grade to 61%, and the pricing system may be adjusted [7][125]. - In 2026, the total supply will increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 1.544 billion tons [7][125]. Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector slowed down, infrastructure investment showed positive year-on-year growth, and the manufacturing industry continued to improve. The annual iron ore demand was calculated to be 1.498 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.97 million tons (+4.23%). The annual iron ore demand in 2026 is expected to remain stable with little change [7][125]. - Overseas: In 2026, the pig iron output in major overseas iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while the steel demand in India and the United States will continue to be strong [7][125]. Inventory - As of early December 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 154 million tons. The production capacity of mines increased slowly in the early stage of 2025 and started to expand in the fourth quarter. However, the demand showed strong resilience, and hot metal production was "not weak in the off - season". With the continued release of iron ore production capacity in 2026, static calculations suggest that the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser, and there is a high possibility of continued inventory accumulation in 2026. However, short - term supply - demand tightness caused by meteorological and other factors may still occur [7][125]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In January, affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil, shipments decreased sharply, and hot metal production stopped falling and rebounded earlier than expected. In early March, after the cyclone in Australia, shipments quickly recovered, but the upward momentum of hot metal was insufficient. With the seasonal recovery of shipments from Australia and Brazil, the resumption of domestic mines increasing supply, and the arrival of the downstream off - season, hot metal production reached its peak and gradually declined. Repeated adjustments of tariff policies caused disturbances that gradually weakened. The pre - festival restocking expectations of steel supported the rebound of iron ore prices. Hot metal production declined significantly, steel product profits continued to weaken, and port inventories increased. After a brief recovery, hot metal production stabilized, and the downstream winter restocking demand was released. After the quarterly shipment rush, the supply from international mines decreased rapidly, the output of domestic mines decreased significantly due to environmental protection, hot metal production continued to rise, and the output of the downstream five major steel products continued to increase. The shipments of international mines recovered, the output of domestic mines increased, but demand showed signs of decline, the off - season arrived, and hot metal production declined. Under the influence of major events, environmental protection restrictions were strict, downstream profits declined, demand weakened, and iron ore prices fluctuated. Vale's terminal maintenance unexpectedly affected shipments, and the US interest rate hikes boosted the macro - optimistic sentiment [5]. Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: In 2025, the global mainstream iron ore shipment volume first decreased and then increased, with a slight year - on - year increase. As of December 12, 2025, the global average daily shipment volume was 4.47 million tons per day, a 2.76% increase compared to 4.35 million tons per day in the previous year. From January to September 2025, the global iron ore trade volume decreased by 2.38%, and China's iron ore imports from the world increased by 0.01% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, the new iron ore production capacity was released, and from January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from the world increased by 0.75% year - on - year [12]. - **China's Imports from Australia and Brazil**: From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.54%, showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially a significant improvement since September. China's imports of iron ore from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased by 2.66%, also showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially since September [16]. - **Australia**: From January to September 2025, Australia's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia increased by 1.55% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Xipo (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and Onslow projects. If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment [21]. - **Brazil**: From January to September 2025, Brazil's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year increase of 4.48%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Brazil increased by 1.15% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increment in Brazil in 2025 comes from Vale's S11D mining area expansion project (20 million tons). According to the capacity release plan, Brazil's iron ore exports may continue to grow in 2026 [26]. - **Major Mining Companies' Production and Shipment Targets**: - Rio Tinto: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target will be increased by 20 - 28 million tons. From January to September 2025, the equity ore output was 210.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68%. The SP10 shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, squeezing part of the PB share. The Xipo mining area was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, to maintain the production of PB powder, which is the main source of production increment for Rio Tinto in 2025 [27][32]. - BHP: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 2 million tons. From January to September 2025, BHP's output was 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. In fiscal year 2025 (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity output was 29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%, reaching a record high. The South Slope mine was the main source of increment, with its capacity fully reaching 80 million tons per year in fiscal year 2025, and together with the C mining area, it forms the world's largest iron ore hub (total capacity of 145 million tons per year). Its high - grade ore (average iron grade of 62%) enhances BHP's product portfolio premium ability [33][38]. - FMG: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 5 million tons. From January to September 2025, FMG's output was 179.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. In 2025, the shipments of Super Special Powder were at a high level, while the shipments of Mixed Powder were relatively weak. FMG has announced that the iron ore shipment target for fiscal year 2026 is set at 195 - 205 million tons, with both the upper and lower limits of the range increased by 5 million tons compared to the previous fiscal year. Among them, the shipment target for the Iron Bridge project is 10 - 12 million tons [40][44]. - Vale: In 2026, the target output will be increased by 10 million tons. From January to September 2025, Vale's iron ore output was 246 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%. The S11D production area is part of the Serra Sul mining complex in Vale's northern system. Vale proposed the Serra Sul 120Mtpy capacity growth project in August 2020, aiming to increase the annual production capacity of S11D by 20 million tons to 120 million tons, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. The Serra Norte comprehensive mining area also belongs to the northern system, with an annual production capacity of 140 million tons. Vale is investing in the N3 mine maintenance project in this area, with a planned total investment of 84 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026. The Capanema Maximization project is a capacity growth plan proposed by Vale for its southeastern system, aiming to increase the combined output of the Fábrica Nova and Capanema mines, providing greater operational flexibility for the Mariana mining complex, with a planned investment of about 910 million US dollars. The Vargem Grande (VGR) complex is located in the southern system. Vale is carrying out the VGR 1 project in this area to maintain the operation of existing projects and promote the recovery of the mining area's production capacity. The VGR 1 project consists of three simultaneous sub - projects, with a total investment of 67 million US dollars. The increments from the S11D, Serra Norte, Vargem Grande, and Capanema mining areas may bring about 60 million tons of iron ore output increment for Vale in the next three years. It is expected that Vale's iron ore output will recover to the range of 340 - 360 million tons in 2026 [45][48]. - **Global Iron Ore Production Capacity Increment**: In 2026, the global iron ore production capacity is expected to increase by nearly 47 million tons, with the commissioning progress of Simandou attracting the most attention. There are expectations of increments in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions in 2026 [50]. - **China's Domestic Supply**: In 2025, the iron concentrate output of 332 domestic mining enterprises is expected to reach 294.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71%, mainly affected by environmental protection and safety inspections. In 2026, with the commissioning of new domestic production capacities and policy support, the output of finished ore (iron concentrate) is expected to increase slightly, with the increment mainly coming from the development of strategic resources in western regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. From January to October 2025, China's total iron ore supply was about 1.276 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.95 million tons (+0.39%). In 2026, with the successive commissioning of new production capacities in Simandou and Brazilian iron ore projects, the total supply may increase by 1.3% [74]. Demand - **Overseas Demand**: In 2025, the overseas pig iron output generally declined, with India continuing to maintain rapid growth. From January to October 2025, the overseas pig iron output was 335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%. Among the major overseas regions, India's pig iron output continued to maintain a high growth rate of +6.38%, while the pig iron output of other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. Among net - importing countries, the EU's pig iron output was 60.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.327 million tons (-5.5%); the pig iron outputs of Japan and South Korea were 48.799 million tons and 36.168 million tons respectively, with year - on - year declines of -4.01% and -1.88% respectively. Japan's pig iron output has shown a continuous downward trend in recent years. Under the interest - rate hike cycle, its domestic economy is weak, orders from the automobile and machinery industries have decreased, and steel demand has decreased by 10%. Due to inflation pressure, Japan may raise interest rates again at the end of 2025, which will have a negative impact on steel demand. South Korea's construction industry is in a slump, and the exports of traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding are blocked. The steel industry demand in 2026 may continue to be weak. Europe's pig iron output continues to decline. High - interest - rate policies have restricted investment and consumption, and the demand for construction, durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances is weak. The euro - zone economy has maintained a low - growth state for a long time, suppressing steel demand [80][81][87]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, the pig iron output is expected to be high at first and then stable, with a year - on - year increase of more than 4.2%. From January to October 2025, the estimated pig iron output was 768 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Since June, hot metal production reached its peak and slowly declined, and steel mill profits gradually decreased. However, since the downstream inventory has always been maintained at a low level, the inventory - accumulation effect has not yet appeared. The estimated pig iron output in 2025 is 923 million tons, with an expected year - on - year increase of 4.2%. In 2026, it is expected that the real estate demand will still be sluggish, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will slow down, and the manufacturing industry will have a fair growth rate [94][99][100]. Inventory - **Overall Inventory Trend**: In 2025, iron ore shipments first decreased and then increased, while demand first increased and then decreased. In 2026, inventory may continue to increase. From January to August 2025, under the situation of a decline in overseas shipments and higher - than - expected demand, the iron ore port inventory maintained a de - stocking trend. Since September, especially after October, imports increased rapidly while downstream demand weakened, and the inventory increased rapidly. As of the latest data in early December 2025, the iron ore inventory across the entire industrial chain increased by about 11.85 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 292 million tons. Looking forward to 2026, with the release of new production capacity and the difficulty of demand growth, the iron ore inventory may continue to accumulate [111]. - **Inventory Variety Differentiation**: The inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Australian ore has recently declined from a high level. Against the background of the slow decline of the total inventory in 15 major ports, the inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Brazilian ore is relatively stable, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently started to rise. The inventory of low - grade ore declined significantly from September to October and has slightly rebounded recently. The overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB powder has declined significantly from the high level in September [112][114]. Cost and Price - The current global cash cost of 90% of iron ore is at the level of about $90 per ton. Without obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and China, the iron ore supply - demand balance may be achieved through price cuts and reduced shipments, and the cost support around $85 is relatively strong [117][118].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, with increased supply but supported by exports, the fundamentals of iron ore may weaken marginally, yet there could be periods of structural shortages, and demand at the lower end is supported. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. It is expected that the price trend will not be significant, maintaining a wide - ranging oscillatory pattern. The price range for the fourth quarter is Platts 62: [90, 115], and the iron ore index is [700, 900]. The recommended industrial risk management strategy is range - bound operation [4][5][117] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Ore Price Review in 2025 - **January 15 - February 21**: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported price increases. The black market followed the stock market, with positive domestic and overseas macro - sentiments. Three hurricanes affected Western Australia ports, reducing global shipments, and the spot market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the rapid resumption of coking coal production and inventory accumulation also supported iron ore prices [6] - **February 22 - April 8**: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipping resumed, and the black market diverged from the stock market. Tariff policies and the expectation of crude steel reduction led to a downward trend in prices [7] - **April 9 - June 18**: A temporary balance was reached after risk release. After the tariff shock in early April, the iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand remained strong, with increasing hot metal production and decreasing port inventory. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but the subsequent weakening of export demand and the cooling of the US economy led to a period of low - volatility oscillation [8] - **June 19 - September 22**: Iron ore prices bottomed out in late June and then rose steadily. The anti - involution trading in the commodity market drove up the price of iron ore through the increase in steel prices and the improvement of steel mill profits. The falsification of the previous pessimistic expectations also contributed to the price rebound [9] - **September 23 - Present**: Overall demand weakened, but the supply of coking coal and the structural shortage of iron ore supported prices, resulting in a wide - ranging price oscillation. The continuous high hot metal production led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation of steel products, and the decline in steel mill profits increased the pressure of negative feedback production cuts. However, the decline in coking coal prices and the structural shortage of medium - grade ore supported the price of iron ore [11] 2. Supply - **2025 Supply Situation**: The global iron ore supply in 2025 was tight at first and then loose. As of early December 2025, the global shipment was about 1.46 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The supply in China was generally balanced, with a 0.7% year - on - year increase in imports from January to October and a 1.35% year - on - year decrease in domestic iron concentrate production. The main suppliers, Australia and Brazil, faced production and shipping difficulties due to natural disasters [14][21] - **Key Suppliers' Situations**: - **Australia**: In early 2025, the Pilbara region in Western Australia was hit by severe hurricanes, causing production stoppages, port closures, and transportation disruptions. In February, Cyclone "Zelia" forced Port Hedland to close for 3 days, and Rio Tinto's first - quarter shipments decreased by 9.35% year - on - year [23] - **Brazil**: In early 2025, heavy rainfall and floods in the northern mining areas affected mining and transportation. The export revenue of iron ore to China in the first quarter decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the shipment volume decreased by 5% - 8% [23] - **India**: It is shifting from a net exporter to a net importer. In 2025, its imports increased significantly, and exports decreased sharply. The government's policy to support the domestic steel industry and the expansion of the steel industry led to an increase in demand for iron ore [26] - **Russia**: In 2025, China's imports from Russia increased by 42.23% year - on - year. The decline in Russia's domestic steel industry demand and the optimization of the Sino - Russian railway logistics system contributed to this increase [30] - **Mongolia**: In the first 10 months of 2024, its exports to China increased by 21.84% year - on - year, mainly due to the improvement of port clearance efficiency and the construction of cross - border railway networks [31] - **Four Major Mines**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of the world's four major mines increased year - on - year, but there were internal differences. Vale and FMG had obvious production increases, while BHP and Rio Tinto had some production declines or challenges. The S11D project of Vale and the Western Range project of Rio Tinto are important production - increasing projects [38][39] - **Domestic Mines**: The cumulative production of domestic iron concentrate was about 215 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35%, mainly due to safety inspections and rainfall in the north. Currently, domestic mines are in the process of resuming production [64] - **2026 Supply Outlook**: It is expected that the iron ore supply in 2026 will increase steadily, with the increment mainly coming from Simandou and Brazil. With high prices supporting shipments and new capacity coming online, shipments are expected to increase by 2% year - on - year, equivalent to about 30 million tons of iron concentrate [68] 3. Demand - **Overall Demand Outlook in 2026**: The demand pattern of the black market has shifted from domestic - driven to external - driven. In 2026, the "weak domestic and strong overseas" structure is expected to continue. Domestic infrastructure and real estate demand will be weak, while the export chain will be the main support for black metal demand. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts may stimulate overseas manufacturing demand, which is beneficial for China's steel exports [69][70] - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: The real estate industry is still in a bottom - grinding stage, and sales are expected to continue to decline in 2026. Infrastructure investment has also shown signs of weakening. However, the new construction area of real estate may improve marginally in 2026, which may reduce the drag on rebar demand [76][77] - **Hot Metal Production**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 2.3748 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.43%. Currently, steel mill profits have declined, but with the concession of coking coal prices, there is still some production profit. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel industry has been alleviated, and hot metal production has decreased [83] - **Steel Mill Supply Structure and Downstream Demand**: In 2025, downstream steel mill demand was supported by exports. The demand for building materials decreased, while the demand for plate steel maintained positive growth, but the growth rate slowed down. Steel mills adjusted their supply structure through production transfer [86][87] - **Export Support**: Overseas exports are still an important support for steel demand. In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of steel exports will remain positive, but the decline may narrow further [95] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Due to the impact of hurricanes and high hot metal production in the first three quarters of 2025, port inventory decreased marginally. Currently, shipments have recovered, and port inventory may start to accumulate again, which will suppress the upward space of iron ore prices. There is also a structural shortage of iron ore, especially for the medium - grade ore required by steel mills [98] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with a relatively high proportion of trading ore. The global iron ore floating inventory is currently high, and the arrival rhythm of iron ore is expected to accelerate. The shipping cost of iron ore has increased, and its weight in the iron ore price has also increased [100][103] 5. Valuation - **Term Structure**: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of the far - month contracts has narrowed. In 2026, attention can be paid to the opportunities of structural shortages between ore powders and months for arbitrage trading [107] - **Iron - Scrap Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has significantly improved in the past six months. In 2026, attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore [110] - **Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect**: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore was significant. In 2026, this effect is expected to continue under the background of low - profit operation of steel mills [112][113] - **Volatility**: In 2025, the implied volatility of iron ore options was generally decreasing. It is expected that the volatility will remain at a low level, but attention should be paid to potential volatility increases due to sudden macro - events [115]