Viking Therapeutics FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Viking Therapeutics (NasdaqCM: VKTX) - **Industry**: Biotechnology, specifically focusing on obesity treatments Key Points and Arguments Ongoing Trials and Programs - Viking Therapeutics is conducting two Phase III trials in obesity, initiated in Q2 2025, with good enrollment progress expected to continue for 78 weeks post-enrollment completion [2][3] - A Phase IIa trial showed a 12.2% weight loss over 13 weeks with an oral formulation, indicating good tolerability [2][5] - Plans to schedule an end-of-Phase II meeting with the FDA by year-end for the oral program [3] - An earlier program targeting the amylin receptor for obesity is expected to file an IND by year-end, followed by a Phase I study in 2026 [3] Weight Loss Efficacy - The oral program demonstrated a dose-response relationship, with weight loss ranging from 2.3% to 12.2% across doses of 30 to 120 mg [8] - A unique transition dosing arm showed continued weight loss even after reducing the dose from 90 mg to 30 mg, which was unexpected [9][15] Safety and Tolerability - The Phase II study reported higher gastrointestinal (GI) adverse events than Phase I, particularly nausea, but the overall adverse event profile was considered manageable [11][12] - The company plans to adjust the titration schedule to mitigate adverse events in future studies [12] Maintenance Strategies - The importance of maintenance dosing strategies for obesity therapies was emphasized, with ongoing studies to evaluate various maintenance regimens [4][19] - The potential for transitioning patients from high doses to lower maintenance doses could improve cost-effectiveness and treatment persistence [15][41] Manufacturing and Supply Chain - Viking Therapeutics signed an agreement with Corden Pharma to ensure a reliable supply chain for their products, addressing concerns about product shortages in the obesity market [32][33] - The agreement includes a multi-ton annual supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) and significant production capacity for various formulations [34][36] Financial Position - The company reported over $800 million in cash, with a burn rate of approximately $50 million per quarter, which is expected to cover ongoing Phase III studies [50] Competitive Landscape - Viking Therapeutics acknowledges the competitive nature of the obesity market but believes their flexible treatment options will enhance patient adherence and long-term health benefits [41][42] - The company is open to partnerships for commercialization but is also preparing to operate independently [41] Future Programs - The amylin receptor agonist program is seen as a potential standalone treatment for patients with lower BMI who may not tolerate GLP-1 agonists [44][45] - Viking's NASH and X-ALD programs are also in development, with plans to seek partners for Phase III trials in NASH due to the complexity of the studies [47][48] Regulatory Environment - The company has not experienced significant disruptions in its interactions with the FDA despite broader concerns about regulatory stability [54] Additional Important Insights - The company is exploring the use of artificial intelligence in drug discovery, although its current focus remains on executing known development plans [53] - Viking Therapeutics is aware of the increasing competition from biotech innovations in China but remains focused on its strategic goals [52]

Core Insights - The market may have prematurely dismissed Viking Therapeutics' pipeline prospects following the phase 2 trial results of VK2735, an oral anti-obesity drug [2][3] - The phase 2 trial showed impressive efficacy but disappointing safety and tolerability data, particularly a 20% discontinuation rate due to adverse events [5][6] - There may still be opportunities for Viking Therapeutics, including potential acquisition or partnership with larger pharmaceutical companies to advance VK2735 through phase 3 testing [8] Company Performance - Viking Therapeutics' phase 2 Venture trial had a 20% discontinuation rate due to adverse effects, compared to 6% for Novo Nordisk's semaglutide and 10.3% for Eli Lilly's orforglipron in their respective phase 3 trials [7] - The body weight reduction in the Venture trial was 12.2%, which is lower than the reductions seen in the phase 3 trials of competitors [7] Market Sentiment - The initial market reaction to the trial results indicated a lack of near-term catalysts for Viking Therapeutics, with phase 3 results for VK2735 in subcutaneous form not expected until 2027 [2] - Despite the negative sentiment, there is a belief that the market may be underestimating Viking's potential options moving forward [3][8]

Group 1 - Investor sentiment is influenced by clinical trial results, technological advancements, and corporate partnerships, making market analysis essential for navigating investment opportunities [1] - Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) has shown a downward bias following the release of Phase 2 trial data for its VK2735 pill, a dual agonist targeting GLP-1 and GIP receptors [2] - Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) shares are expected to reach $200 according to market commentary [2] Group 2 - Richtech Robotics Inc. (RRR) announced a $100 million at-the-market offering, indicating a significant capital raise [3] - Richtech Robotics shares declined by 5.2% to close at $2.5400, reflecting market sentiment [5] - Viking Therapeutics shares fell by 1.2% to settle at $26.53, indicating a negative market reaction [5]

Group 1: Company Overview - Viking Therapeutics aims to enter the billion-dollar weight loss drug market, currently dominated by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with a market valuation of approximately $3 billion [1][2] - The company has advanced its weight loss drug candidate in both injectable and oral formats, despite not yet securing a partnership or acquisition with larger pharmaceutical companies [2][3] Group 2: Market Context - The weight loss drug market is projected to grow from $28 billion today to $95 billion by 2030, indicating significant opportunities for new entrants like Viking [6][7] - Current market leaders, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, have popular products such as Mounjaro, Zepbound, Ozempic, and Wegovy, which have gained widespread recognition and usage [5][6] Group 3: Clinical Trial Results - Viking's oral weight loss candidate, VK2735, demonstrated an average weight loss of 12.2% at three months, with no plateau observed, suggesting potential for continued weight loss [8][10] - Concerns arose regarding the 28% discontinuation rate in Viking's trial, which may impact long-term sales if patients experience side effects [9] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite recent stock price declines of 34% following disappointing data, Viking's weight loss candidate is still viewed as promising, with potential for blockbuster revenue in the future [3][11] - The current dip in stock price may present a buying opportunity for investors willing to accept the inherent risks associated with biotech companies that have not yet commercialized products [11]

Core Insights - Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) shares have declined over 20% in the past month, underperforming the industry growth of 1% and also lagging behind the sector and S&P 500 [1][9] - The decline followed mixed results from a mid-stage study of VK2735, an experimental obesity drug, raising concerns about its safety and tolerability despite achieving weight loss results [4][5][9] Company Pipeline and Development - VKTX is developing VK2735, a dual GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist, showing potential in the obesity treatment space with both oral and subcutaneous formulations [6] - The phase II VENTURE study for the subcutaneous version of VK2735 met all primary and secondary endpoints, leading to the initiation of two late-stage studies expected to report results by late 2026 or early 2027 [7][8] - VKTX is also pursuing drugs for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD), with promising clinical study results [10] Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion in the U.S. by 2030, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently leading with their injectable drugs [11] - VKTX, along with its competitors, is racing to introduce oral weight-loss pills, with Novo's oral Wegovy under FDA review and Lilly's orforglipron showing positive late-stage study results [12][13] Financial Position and Valuation - VKTX lacks a stable revenue stream and faces significant cash burn due to ongoing clinical studies, which could impact its stock if setbacks occur [14] - The company is trading at a premium valuation, with a price/book ratio of 3.82 compared to the industry average of 3.09 [15] - Estimates for VKTX's loss per share for 2025 and 2026 have widened significantly in the past 60 days, indicating potential financial challenges ahead [17] Investment Outlook - Despite a strong cash position of $808 million and no debt, the lack of revenue and competition from larger pharmaceutical companies raises concerns for VKTX's stock [18] - The stock is currently rated Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), reflecting the challenges in justifying further investment at this stage [18]

Company Overview - Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) closed at $27.05, reflecting a decrease of -1.92% from the previous trading session, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's loss of 0.64% [1] - Over the past month, shares of the company have declined by 15.32%, while the Medical sector gained 1.3% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.91% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming earnings release is highly anticipated, with projected EPS at -$0.68, indicating a significant drop of 209.09% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of -$2.42 per share and revenue of $0 million, representing year-over-year changes of -139.6% and 0%, respectively [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Viking Therapeutics indicate the dynamic nature of near-term business trends, with positive revisions seen as a favorable sign for the business outlook [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, provides actionable ratings for stocks [4] Zacks Rank Performance - The Zacks Rank system ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), with 1 stocks historically contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - Currently, Viking Therapeutics holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the last 30 days [5] Industry Context - Viking Therapeutics operates within the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which has a Zacks Industry Rank of 99, placing it in the top 41% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups, indicating that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]

Group 1 - Numerous companies in the healthcare sector are actively developing obesity drugs, which have gained significant attention in the medical field [1] - Viking Therapeutics experienced a nearly 4% increase in share price due to positive research findings related to obesity treatments, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 0.3% rise [1] - The effectiveness of obesity drugs extends beyond weight reduction, showing potential benefits for various health conditions, attracting investor interest [2] Group 2 - A recent study highlighted that GLP-1 agonists, which promote a feeling of satiety, may positively impact hidradenitis suppurativa, a troublesome skin condition [4] - Research published in JAMA Dermatology indicates that GLP-1 agonists possess anti-inflammatory properties and can be beneficial for treating hidradenitis suppurativa [5] - Viking's VK2735, a dual agonist targeting both GLP-1 and GIP receptors, could potentially provide additional value if it proves effective for hidradenitis suppurativa [6]

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) are significant players in the obesity treatment market, with NVO being a market leader in the GLP-1 segment and VKTX developing a promising investigational drug [1][2][3] Group 1: Novo Nordisk (NVO) - NVO holds a 51.9% value market share in the GLP-1 segment as of Q2 2025, with a broad diabetes portfolio [4] - Wegovy, a key product for NVO, generated $5.41 billion (DKK 36.9 billion) in sales during the first half of 2025, but is facing slower-than-expected uptake in the U.S. due to illegal compounded versions [5] - NVO is expanding the indications for semaglutide, with Wegovy now approved for cardiovascular and osteoarthritis benefits, and an FDA decision on oral Wegovy expected by year-end [6] - The company is advancing its obesity pipeline, including the CagriSema program and partnerships to develop new treatments, while also diversifying into rare diseases [7][8] - NVO's recent leadership change, with a new CEO appointed on August 7, 2025, comes amid market headwinds and a stock decline since mid-2024 [9][10] - NVO cut its 2025 guidance due to slower uptake of Wegovy and Ozempic, alongside competition from Eli Lilly [10][11] Group 2: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) - VKTX is a clinical-stage biotech firm with its investigational drug VK2735 showing potential for significant weight loss in early studies [2][12] - Despite demonstrating up to 12.2% weight loss in patients, VKTX's stock suffered after mixed results from a mid-stage study raised safety and tolerability concerns [13][14] - VKTX plans to file for an investigational new drug application for a new obesity treatment and is focusing on its obesity pipeline while exploring collaborations for other candidates [15][16] - VKTX has a strong cash position of $808 million as of June 2025, with no debt, providing financial flexibility to advance its programs [28] - VKTX's stock is trading at a lower price/book ratio compared to NVO, making it a more compelling valuation option [24][29] Group 3: Market Comparison - Both NVO and VKTX have faced stock declines of approximately 35.7% and 35.3% year-to-date, respectively, while the industry has gained 2.3% [22] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVO implies a year-over-year increase of around 15% in sales and 17% in earnings per share for 2025, while VKTX is expected to widen its loss per share by 146% [17][20] - NVO is rated as a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) and VKTX as a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), reflecting execution risks and limited near-term catalysts for both companies [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics experienced a significant 40% drop in stock price following the release of Phase 2 results for its oral obesity treatment VK2735, despite demonstrating a strong 12.2% weight loss signal over 13 weeks [1][2]. Company Developments - The Phase 3 VANQUISH program was launched on June 25, 2025, with two large trials enrolling: VANQUISH-1 for 4,500 adults with obesity and VANQUISH-2 for 1,100 adults with type 2 diabetes, both lasting 78 weeks [4]. - The injectable formulation previously showed a 14.7% weight loss at 13 weeks with mild to moderate side effects that decreased over time, indicating potential for transitioning from injectables to oral pills for long-term management [5]. Market Opportunity - Goldman Sachs revised its 2030 obesity market forecast to $95 billion, suggesting that even a 2% market share could yield approximately $1.9 billion in annual revenue for Viking, which has a market cap of $2.9 billion [7]. - The company is exploring monthly dosing options for its injectable treatment, positioning itself alongside Novo Nordisk as one of the few to demonstrate efficacy in both oral and injectable forms [8]. Financial Position - Viking has $808 million in cash as of June 30, 2025, but faces a $300 million expense for its registrational program, making partnerships increasingly likely after further data analysis and FDA feedback [9]. - Wall Street maintains an average price target of $87 to $90 per share, indicating a potential 200% upside from current levels, attributed to a misunderstanding of trial design and tolerability issues [11]. Industry Context - The CDC reports that 40% of U.S. adults have obesity, highlighting a vast addressable market for obesity treatments [12]. - Big Pharma remains interested in obesity assets, with companies like AbbVie, Roche, and Amgen actively pursuing deals, making Viking's late-stage opportunity attractive, especially after the recent stock decline [10].

Viking Therapeutics - Viking Therapeutics' stock has declined by 37% this year due to disappointing phase 2 results for its oral GLP-1 weight loss candidate, VK2735, with 20% of participants dropping out due to adverse side effects, primarily gastrointestinal issues [4][5] - Despite the setback, Wall Street analysts remain bullish, with an average price target of $88.78, suggesting a potential upside of 245% from current levels [2] - The phase 2 study showed an average weight loss of 12.2% at the highest dose after 13 weeks, with no weight-loss plateau observed, indicating strong efficacy compared to competitors [6][7] - Viking has a promising pipeline, including a subcutaneous version of VK2735 in phase 3 studies and another candidate, VK2809, for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, expected to advance to phase 3 soon [8][9] Regeneron Pharmaceuticals - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals has faced competition from biosimilars for its Eylea medication, but the newly approved high-dose formulation is helping mitigate losses [10] - The company's revenue increased by 4% year over year to $3.68 billion, driven by strong performance from eczema treatment Dupixent, which saw a 22% increase in worldwide sales to $4.34 billion [11] - Regeneron is expected to earn label expansions for Eylea HD in the U.S. and has recently received approval for Lynozyfic, a new cancer medicine [12] - The company has a robust pipeline, including trevogrumab for muscle loss in patients using GLP-1 weight management medicines and a gene therapy for a type of genetic deafness [13] - Despite current stock declines, Regeneron is positioned to deliver superior long-term returns to patient investors [14]