Core Viewpoint - Corporate earnings and geopolitical concerns have influenced investor sentiment, but dividend-paying stocks remain an attractive option for consistent income in a volatile market [1] Group 1: Viper Energy (VNOM) - Viper Energy, a subsidiary of Diamondback Energy, focuses on mineral and royalty interests in oil-weighted basins, primarily the Permian in West Texas, offering a dividend yield of 5.53% [3] - Analyst Leo Mariani from Roth Capital maintains a buy rating on VNOM with a price target of $48, citing its high organic growth rate, solid and growing dividend, and strong free cash flow even at lower oil prices [4] - Viper is expected to produce 66,552 barrels of oil per day in Q4 2025, slightly above estimates, with total production of 129,424 barrels of oil equivalent per day, also above consensus [4] - A cash distribution of $0.57 per share is anticipated for Q4 2025, reflecting a 2% decline, alongside an increase in share buybacks to $95 million [5] - Viper is considered more insulated from drilling cuts due to weak oil prices, as Diamondback operates 60% of its production, allowing for scaled-back activity outside VNOM's mineral acreage [6] Group 2: SLB (SLB) - SLB, an oilfield services provider, reported better-than-expected Q4 2025 results and announced a 3.5% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.295 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.41% [8] - Analyst Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan reiterated a buy rating on SLB, raising the price target to $54, noting that the company's 2026 guidance aligns with consensus expectations [9] - SLB is expected to benefit from growth in international markets, particularly in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia, while facing a modest revenue decline in Europe and Africa [10] - The company anticipates generating approximately $4.2 billion in free cash flow in 2026 and returning nearly $4.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [12] Group 3: EOG Resources (EOG) - EOG Resources offers a quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share, resulting in an annualized dividend yield of 3.68% [14] - Analyst Gabriele Sorbara from Siebert Williams Shank reaffirmed a buy rating on EOG with a price target of $150, expecting strong Q4 results in line with estimates [15] - EOG is projected to return at least 70% of free cash flow to shareholders annually, supported by strong free cash flow generation and a robust balance sheet [16] - The company plans opportunistic buybacks, with $4 billion available under an existing authorization, estimating $457.4 million in Q4 2025 share buybacks [17]

Core Thesis - Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) is positioned as a unique energy royalty business focused on the Permian Basin, generating high cash flow with limited operational risk [2][3] Financial Performance - VNOM's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 15.49 and 55.25 respectively, indicating a valuation that may not fully reflect its potential [1] - The company achieves EBITDA margins above 90% and free cash flow margins exceeding 70%, even in lower commodity price environments [3] - At a commodity price of approximately $60 per barrel, VNOM offers over 10% cash-on-cash free cash flow yield, with an estimated payback period of 10 to 11 years [3] Operational Structure - VNOM owns subsurface mineral rights across about 86,000 net royalty acres, functioning more like an upstream capital provider rather than a traditional producer [2] - The company maintains low leverage with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of roughly 1x, allowing for flexibility in value compounding through mineral acquisitions and share buybacks [4] Shareholder Returns - VNOM is committed to returning at least 75% of cash available for distribution to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, resulting in an approximate 8% current cash yield [5] - The relationship with Diamondback Energy provides a steady pipeline of potential mineral dropdowns, enhancing VNOM's role as a consolidator in the Permian [5] Market Position - Despite strong performance and scale achieved through the Sitio merger, VNOM trades at a valuation discount compared to similar royalty businesses, presenting a long-term compounding opportunity [7] - The combination of strong free cash flow generation and a declining share count over time offers attractive downside protection and significant upside potential [7]

Company Overview - Viper Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Diamondback Energy, Inc. focused on owning, acquiring, and exploiting oil and natural gas properties in North America, particularly in the Permian Basin [3] - Diamondback Energy, Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas company headquartered in Midland, Texas, specializing in the acquisition, development, exploration, and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin [4] Upcoming Financial Results - Viper Energy plans to release its fourth quarter 2025 financial results on February 23, 2026, after the market closes [1] - A conference call and webcast will be held on February 24, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. CT to discuss the fourth quarter results with investors and analysts [2]

Core Insights - Viper Energy (VNOM) reported solid Q3 2025 results, with oil production meeting expectations and total production exceeding guidance by a couple of percent [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Viper Energy's total production was a couple percent higher than its guidance midpoint [1] - The company announced a sale, although specific details about the sale were not provided in the text [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - Aaron Chow, also known as Elephant Analytics, has over 15 years of analytical experience and is a top-rated analyst on TipRanks [1] - Chow co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment and has designed in-game economic models for mobile apps with over 30 million combined installs [1] - He is the author of the investing group Distressed Value Investing, focusing on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Viper Energy's stock has experienced a decline, with significant selling activity from major investors indicating potential concerns about the company's performance and investor sentiment in the energy sector [1][2][6]. Company Overview - Viper Energy focuses on acquiring and managing mineral rights in key U.S. oil and gas basins, allowing participation in upstream production economics while minimizing capital expenditures and operational risks [5][8]. - The company operates as a subsidiary of Diamondback Energy and generates revenue primarily from royalties on hydrocarbon production [8]. Financial Performance - For the trailing twelve months (TTM), Viper Energy reported revenue of $1.19 billion and a net income of $243.66 million [4]. - The company has a dividend yield of 5.5%, with shares priced at $38.48 as of the latest report [4]. - In the third quarter, Viper produced over 108,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and generated $165 million in pro forma cash available for distribution, returning 85% of that cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [6][9]. Market Performance - Viper Energy's shares have decreased by 20% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which has increased by approximately 15.5% during the same period [3]. - The Nemes Rush Group sold its entire position of 319,503 shares, valued at approximately $12.18 million, indicating a strategic move after a sharp drawdown [2][10].

Core Insights - Guardian Wealth Management, Inc. has acquired over 133,000 shares of Viper Energy, valued at approximately $5.12 million as of September 30, 2025, marking a new position for the fund [1][2][7] Company Overview - Viper Energy reported a total revenue of $1.15 billion and a net income of $311.51 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] - The company offers a dividend yield of 5.79% and its stock price was $40.65 as of December 5, 2025 [4][3] Business Model - Viper Energy operates a royalty-based model, generating income from oil and gas production without incurring direct drilling or operating costs [9][10] - The company holds mineral and royalty interests primarily in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale, which provides a stable revenue stream linked to oil and gas production volumes and prices [6][10] Performance Metrics - Over the past decade, Viper Energy's stock has increased by 298%, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4%, outperforming both energy sector ETFs and the S&P 500 [11] - The stock's total return is significantly supported by dividends, appealing to income-oriented investors with a current dividend yield of 5.8% [13][14] Recent Developments - The new position in Viper Energy accounts for 3.02% of Guardian Wealth Management's 13F reportable assets under management, which total $169.26 million across 61 positions [2][3]

Core Argument - The article discusses concerns regarding the sustainability of the "circular economy" surrounding artificial intelligence investments, particularly focusing on OpenAI's financial practices and potential risks of a market collapse similar to past financial crises [2][4]. Group 1: AI Investment Risks - OpenAI is raising significant capital to fund hardware and services but lacks sufficient revenue to cover these expenses, creating a precarious financial situation [2][3]. - The interdependent relationships among major tech companies and startups could lead to a collapse if funding dries up, resulting in a market crash [4][2]. - Companies are depreciating NVIDIA GPU chipsets over six years, despite rapid technological advancements that could render them obsolete sooner [3]. Group 2: Hedging Strategies - Porter & Co. recommends hedging against potential market downturns, specifically suggesting buying put options on the Nasdaq 100 to protect investments [5][6]. - The cost of put options can be substantial, with a potential 1,000% return if the market declines significantly [6][28]. - The article outlines various options trading strategies, including selling call options for income and buying put options for protection against declines [11][14]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - After establishing protective measures, investors may consider opportunities arising from increased tech capital expenditures, including a specific recommendation for Viper Energy, which has strong profit margins and a solid dividend yield [43][44]. - Viper Energy focuses on mineral and royalty interests in the Permian Basin, with plans for growth through acquisitions and increased production [44][46]. - The company is primarily oil-focused, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from oil production rather than natural gas, which may limit its appeal as a direct play on AI-related energy demands [48][49].

Core Insights - Oaktree Capital Management's latest 13F filing reveals a focus on deep-value cyclicals, energy companies with strong free cash flow, and special-situation equities with asymmetric payoff potential [1][2] Group 1: Top Holdings - TORM PLC (TRMD) is Oaktree's largest holding with 40,581,120 shares valued at $834.6 million, indicating strong conviction in the tanker cycle and a favorable supply/demand imbalance in the product tanker market [3] - Expand Energy Corp (CHK) holds 5,062,363 shares worth $537.8 million, reflecting Oaktree's long-term confidence in energy, particularly natural gas, despite minimal activity this quarter [4] - Garrett Motion (GTX) has 31,894,816 shares valued at $434.4 million, representing a classic special situation investment as the company continues to reduce leverage and grow cash flow post-restructuring [5] - AngloGold Ashanti (AU) consists of 4,185,261 shares worth $294.3 million, fitting Oaktree's strategy with improving margins and optionality in an inflationary environment [6] - Viper Energy (VNOM) has 6,285,062 shares valued at $240.2 million, showcasing a strong thematic bet on energy with predictable royalty cash flows [7] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Oaktree's portfolio heavily emphasizes deep-value cyclicals, particularly in tankers, energy producers, and commodity-linked businesses, all characterized by significant cash flow yield and depressed valuations [8] - The firm maintains a consistent philosophy of embracing dislocation, favoring investments in situations where pessimism is already priced in, such as restructuring plays and underfollowed foreign cyclicals [9] - Energy remains the highest-conviction theme for Oaktree, with multiple top holdings indicating an underestimation of cash generation durability across the sector [10] - Position changes reflect a blend of patience and opportunism, with Oaktree trimming stocks that rallied while increasing positions in VNOM and selected common stocks, aligning with a strategy of controlled aggression [11]

Core Viewpoint - Viper Energy Partners reported better-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings, but the overall performance shows signs of potential challenges ahead due to declining realized prices and rising expenses [2][4][14]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 was 40 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents but down from 49 cents a year ago [2]. - Operating income reached $418 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $403 million and significantly up from $211 million in the prior year [3]. - Total expenses surged to $594 million, compared to $75 million in the same quarter last year, and above the estimate of $245.8 million [9]. Production Metrics - Total production was 10,015 thousand oil-equivalent barrels (MBoe), up from 4,542 MBoe a year ago, surpassing the estimate of 9,709 MBoe [5]. - Oil production increased to 5,160 thousand barrels (MBbls) from 2,482 MBbls year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of 5,054 MBbls [5]. - Natural gas production rose to 14,655 million cubic feet (MMcf) from 6,150 MMcf in the same period last year [6]. Realized Prices - Average realized price per barrel of oil equivalent was $39.24, down from $45.83 in Q3 2024, and slightly below the estimate of $39.76 [7]. - Average realized oil price was $64.34 per barrel, down from $75.24 a year ago but above the estimate of $60.50 [7]. - Natural gas price was $1.02 per thousand cubic feet, significantly up from $0.13 a year ago, but below the estimate of $1.90 [8]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Net cash provided by operating activities was $281 million, an increase from $203 million in Q3 2024 [11]. - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $53 million, with net long-term debt reported at $2,241 million [12]. Guidance - Production for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 124-128 Mboe/d, with full-year 2025 net production expected in the range of 92.75-93.50 Mboe/d [13]. Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 8.12% [14]. - Viper Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [16].

Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, focusing on identifying undervalued names in the sector [1] - The author emphasizes the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry, highlighting the need for patience and experience in investing [2] - The investing group, Oil & Gas Value Research, seeks out under-followed oil companies and midstream companies that present compelling investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that the author has a beneficial long position in the shares of VNOM and FANG, indicating a personal investment interest [3] - It is noted that the article expresses the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [3] - The article does not provide investment advice and encourages investors to conduct their own research [4]