⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 1.53/1.63/2.29 元（原预测为 1.69/1.76/2.38 元，主要调整了营业收入及毛利率）。根据可比公司 26 年 28 倍 PE 估值，对应目标 价为 52.17 港币（人民币港币汇率采用 1：1.134），维持买入评级。 风险提示 小米集团-W 01810.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 Xiaomi miclaw 开启小范围封测 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 手机销量不及预期，汽车业务不及预期，AI 落地不及预期，按公允价值计入损益的金融 工具公允价值下滑 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 270,970 | 365,905 | 453,633 | 527,008 | 657,491 | | 同比增长 (%) | -3% | 35% | 24% | 16% | 25% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 20,009 | 24,503 | 47,909 | 46,820 | ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2026年3月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 200,000,000,000 | USD | 0.0000025 | USD | | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 42.7 [7][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the storage price surge is currently impacting Xiaomi's short-term profitability, but the long-term ecosystem value driven by multi-device synergy is promising [3]. - The financial forecasts for Xiaomi's revenue and adjusted net profit have been revised downwards for FY2025E-FY2027E, reflecting a more cautious outlook due to market conditions [15]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in million RMB)**: - 2023: 270,971 - 2024: 365,932 (+35.0%) - 2025E: 457,062 (+24.9%) - 2026E: 511,216 (+11.8%) - 2027E: 595,885 (+16.6%) [5] - **Gross Profit and Margin**: - 2023: Gross Profit 57,477, Margin 21.2% - 2024: Gross Profit 76,564, Margin 20.9% - 2025E: Gross Profit 101,281, Margin 22.2% - 2026E: Gross Profit 107,773, Margin 21.1% - 2027E: Gross Profit 131,879, Margin 22.1% [5] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2023: 19,273 (+126.3%) - 2024: 27,235 (+41.3%) - 2025E: 38,186 (+40.2%) - 2026E: 34,040 (-10.9%) - 2027E: 46,178 (+35.7%) [5] Business Segments Overview - **Smartphones**: The report anticipates a decline in smartphone shipments in Q4 2025, with an expected volume of 37.8 million units, down 11.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a contraction in the Indian market [15]. - **Automotive**: Xiaomi's automotive segment is projected to achieve operational profitability in 2025, with Q4 deliveries exceeding 140,000 units. The report notes a slight decline in average selling price (ASP) due to promotional activities [15]. - **IOT and Internet Services**: IOT revenue is expected to decline by 26% year-on-year in Q4 2025, while internet services are projected to grow by 4.7% [15]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a PE of 20x for core businesses (smartphones, IOT, internet) and a PS of 2.4x for the automotive segment, reflecting Xiaomi's competitive advantages in supply chain management and brand strength [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 42.7 [7][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the storage price surge is currently impacting Xiaomi's short-term profitability, but the long-term ecosystem value driven by multi-device synergy is promising [3]. - The financial forecast for Xiaomi shows a projected revenue increase from RMB 270.971 billion in 2023 to RMB 595.885 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.6% [5][15]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 19.273 billion in 2023 to RMB 46.178 billion in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [5][15]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: RMB 270.971 billion - 2024: RMB 365.932 billion (+35.0%) - 2025E: RMB 457.062 billion (+24.9%) - 2026E: RMB 511.216 billion (+11.8%) - 2027E: RMB 595.885 billion (+16.6%) [5] - **Gross Profit**: - 2023: RMB 57.477 billion - 2024: RMB 76.564 billion - 2025E: RMB 101.281 billion - 2026E: RMB 107.773 billion - 2027E: RMB 131.879 billion [5] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2023: RMB 19.273 billion - 2024: RMB 27.235 billion (+41.3%) - 2025E: RMB 38.186 billion (+40.2%) - 2026E: RMB 34.040 billion (-10.9%) - 2027E: RMB 46.178 billion (+35.7%) [5] Business Segments - **Smartphones**: - Expected shipment of 37.8 million units in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, primarily due to a contraction in the Indian market [15]. - Anticipated gross margin decline to approximately 8.2% in Q4 2025 due to storage cost pressures [15]. - **Automotive**: - Q4 2025 deliveries are projected to exceed 140,000 units, with expectations of achieving operational profitability for the full year [15]. - The automotive segment is expected to see a significant product launch period in 2026, which may enhance demand [15]. - **IOT and Internet Services**: - IOT revenue is expected to decline by 26% year-on-year to RMB 23 billion in Q4 2025, while internet services are projected to grow by 4.7% to RMB 9.8 billion [15]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x for core businesses (smartphones, IOT, internet) and a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 2.4x for the automotive segment [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5] Core Views - The report highlights that Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in Q4 2025 were approximately 37.8 million units, a year-on-year decline of 11.4%, with a market share of 11.2%, placing it among the top three globally [1] - Xiaomi's high-end product strategy is expected to mitigate the pressure from rising storage costs, with the Xiaomi 17 series achieving strong sales [1] - The automotive segment is projected to deliver over 410,000 units in 2025, with a target of 550,000 units for 2026, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2] - The report anticipates Xiaomi's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 457.8 billion, 541.8 billion, and 644.4 billion CNY respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately 38.6 billion, 37 billion, and 45 billion CNY [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 270.97 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3%, followed by 365.91 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 35% increase [4][12] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to rise from 19.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 38.58 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 42% [4][12] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 21.2% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 20.5% by 2027 [12][11] - The report projects a decline in smartphone gross margin to over 8% in Q4 2025 due to increased storage costs [1] Market Position - Xiaomi's market share in the Chinese smartphone market is 13.2%, ranking it among the top five [1] - The company is focusing on high-end market penetration, with the Xiaomi 17 Pro Max achieving significant sales within the premium segment [1] - The automotive and AI innovation sectors are expected to contribute positively to Xiaomi's profitability as delivery volumes increase [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5] Core Views - The report highlights that Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in Q4 2025 were approximately 37.8 million units, a year-on-year decline of 11.4%, with a market share of 11.2%, placing it among the top three globally [1] - Xiaomi's high-end product strategy is expected to mitigate the pressure from rising storage costs, with the Xiaomi 17 series achieving strong sales [1] - The automotive segment is projected to deliver over 410,000 units in 2025, with a target of 550,000 units for 2026, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2] - The report anticipates Xiaomi's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 457.8 billion, 541.8 billion, and 644.4 billion CNY respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately 38.6 billion, 37 billion, and 45 billion CNY [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 270.97 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3%, followed by 365.91 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 35% increase [4][12] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to rise from 19.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 38.58 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 42% [4][12] - The report forecasts a decline in smartphone gross margin to over 8% in Q4 2025 due to increased storage costs, despite an overall positive contribution from product structure optimization [1][3] Market Position - Xiaomi's market share in the Chinese smartphone market is reported at 13.2%, ranking it among the top five [1] - The company is recognized as a leader in the industry, with a strong focus on high-end product offerings, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the long term [3]

公司名稱： 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2026年3月3日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [1] Core Insights - The smartphone and IoT business are expected to face short-term pressure, with adjusted profits projected to decline year-on-year in Q4 2025 [2] - Xiaomi Group's revenue for Q4 2025 is anticipated to be CNY 116.4 billion, representing a 7% year-on-year growth, despite declines in smartphone and IoT revenues [5][6] - The electric vehicle segment is projected to see significant growth, with revenues expected to reach CNY 38 billion, a 133% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for Xiaomi Group from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of CNY 455.6 billion, adjusted net profit of CNY 39.1 billion - 2026: Revenue of CNY 546.1 billion, adjusted net profit of CNY 42.7 billion - 2027: Revenue of CNY 643.1 billion, adjusted net profit of CNY 55 billion - Corresponding adjusted P/E ratios are projected to be 19.5x for 2025, 17.8x for 2026, and 13.9x for 2027 [7][10][11] Business Segment Analysis - **Smartphone Business**: Expected revenue of CNY 45.2 billion in Q4 2025, a 12% decline year-on-year, with a gross margin of approximately 8.3% [6] - **IoT and Consumer Products**: Anticipated revenue of CNY 23.3 billion in Q4 2025, a 25% decline year-on-year, with a gross margin of around 20% [6] - **Electric Vehicle Business**: Projected revenue of CNY 38 billion in Q4 2025, driven by an expected delivery of approximately 150,000 vehicles [7]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2026年3月2日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | | 說明 | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股 ...

Market Overview - Global wearable device shipments surpassed 200 million units in 2025, marking a 6% year-on-year growth [1] - The market is experiencing increased consolidation among top vendors, with Xiaomi leading at 18% market share, followed by Apple at 17% and Huawei at 16% [1][5] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the wearables market is shifting from hardware-driven to ecosystem-led, emphasizing cross-device integration and monetizable data services [2] - Xiaomi's growth is attributed to a multi-category strategy, while Apple maintains a premium position through advanced health features and 5G connectivity [2] - Huawei is focusing on professional sports and medical-grade health applications to strengthen its market presence [2] Revenue Models - AI and subscription services are becoming essential revenue drivers, transforming from optional features to critical components for growth and profitability [3] - Subscription services are increasingly vital for vendors with higher-priced portfolios, providing a buffer against hardware margin compression due to rising component costs [3] Future Outlook - The global wearables market is expected to see modest single-digit growth in 2026, driven by advancements in on-device AI and demand for professional-grade health management [4] - Key physiological metrics, such as blood glucose and blood pressure monitoring, will be crucial for growth among leading smartwatch vendors [4] - Smartwatches are projected to show the strongest momentum, integrating advanced sensing and AI analytics for enhanced ecosystem connectivity [4]